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There are alot more 9474 stocked than 4842 ever was, a hell of alot more. http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=9474-1-&colorID=0&v=D&viewExclude=Y&cID=N $200 looks like a steep climb to make in 1 year. $160 shipped sounds realistic after 12 months to me. $200 xmas 2015.
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There are not many sets that were going to do double my cost within 1 year. I have my fill of 10219, 10217, 4842, 8043 and 10212. Did not have to pass on any sets, storage and $$$ are not an obstacle. There may have been some Ninjago that might do better than 2x but to be honest I am clueless on that theme and will steer…
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^ Though I don't disagree that TLG has flexibility in production runs, there are a lot of assumptions made to arrive at your theory. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you are: 1. Observing the lengthy shelf life of larger sets. (Fire Brigade, Death Star, and maybe MMV?) 2. Associating how well regarded the…
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If you value your time, your cost of capital, and your other expenses such as storage and gas at zero, then yes you pocket $95. Well, no you don't, because at $250 you'll net $217.50 after 10% eBay fees and 2.9% PayPal fees (well, you will once the rates go up next month anyway). Then take off another $15 in shipping (or…
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