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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving in the USA) is when it is apparent which sets will be EOL'd. They typically mark those sets down 25%. Toss in TLG's additional 10% off on all sets plus free shipping and it's a great day/week for Lego fans.

    Additionally, the day(s) after Christmas always have additional sales and sets being EOL'd (although I don't recall free shipping).

    This year the Winter Bakery will be EOL'd, but that's about all I know that is pretty sure.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Have anybody noticed how bricklink got flooded with the Shirtless Darth Maul minifigs? I sold a couple of them for about €20 and then suddenly over 2000 sold in a month and still over 500 available for about €9. Wondering how this amount will affect the prices for a couple of months.
    I see some strange quantities of stuff on BL pop up all the time. Crazy quantities in the thousands (with condition listed as "new") for parts or sets not produced since the 80s or 90s. Usually these sellers are out of a country with a Lego facility, mostly EU.

    I just wonder how they can possibly get that much.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 630
    ^^
    Thanksgiving is when?
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^ 4th Thursday of november.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I just wonder how they can possibly get that much.
    280 copies of a minifig are not "that much" actually... Seems so when you consider the thin secondary market, but the truth is, perhaps several hundred thousand of these were made, cases of them were left over somewhere, and someone got their hands on one from an auction or a bankruptcy sale.

    I have thousands of Brickmaster polybags, obtained the same way. :)
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Reminds me on sportscards from the early 90s. Perceived scarcity until the market was flooded with product. Since production counts are unavailable, I'm curious on the curve on copies per set.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Reminds me on sportscards from the early 90s. Perceived scarcity until the market was flooded with product. Since production counts are unavailable, I'm curious on the curve on copies per set.
    Those who are wise will buy up all of the supply from such auctions, and sell it slowly over time.

    Putting 280 for sale at once on Bricklink devalues the item, I personally would have put only 5 or 10 up, then add more over time.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    What do you all think of the Motorized Excavator 8043? I'm out of town this weekend and the local TRU has one of these. AND.. I have a 20% off coupon which would put it at $160. I know this isn't EOL yet but it should be soon. Good deal? or not.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    edited July 2012
    ^$160 is a pretty good price for it. You may find a better deal online if you wait and look for one regularly, but if you want to secure one before it is gone, buy it now.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited July 2012


    I have to disagree with the end of the year thing... Over the past month, a bunch of sets have retired... Too many for me to bother with a list, but just a few are 8095, 8096, 8088, 8098, 8081, 10215, 9387, 9349, 7065, 7066, 7049, etc.

    And that doesn't include battle packs, 6 digit items, etc.
    That's stuff discontinued at the end of 2011 and that LEGO had in overstock.

    Non-promo sets discontinue once a year: December 2012.

    There is a very easy way to see what non 1xxxx sets have been discontinued: they do not appear in the in-shoppe catalogs that are given out in European toy stores.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Perhaps, but I always considered something to be discontinued when the manufacture no longer offers it for sale.

    [email protected] had all those up until recently, as did almost everyone else.
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    Thought I'd post this here too. Seems like 2509 Ninjago Earth Dragon defense is in stock for shipping @ Toysrus.com. Upmarked to 39.99 + shipping/tax but seems like the cheapest option now it's discontinued.

    http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=11798865
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    When I try to add it to my cart it tells me quantities are limited and removes the set. I am only trying to order 1
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    When I try to add it to my cart it tells me quantities are limited and removes the set. I am only trying to order 1
    I was able to get an order in for 1, then it did the same thing to me, only let me buy 1.

    I'll be very surprised if one shows up. :)
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    Good luck! Let me know if you get the one. Didn't actually order one myself...I have a couple already. Thought I'd leave whatever stock Toysrus discovered in the backroom (seems like it's out of stock already, mind) for anyone that might've missed out on these.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I'm still on the fence about Ninjago. Although it's one if Legos best selling series, I don't think it will stand the test of time like Star Wars. I know Ninjago is not a licensed theme, but it is an awesome seller. I just don't think that when the series is done the sets will command the interest as Star Wars or many or the other licensed and other themes like Castle and Pirates.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited July 2012
    ...I just think that if I had a lot of Ninjago to sell, I would sell it quick because interest will wane. It could be like Beanie Babies, who knows.

    That is just my opinion.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Yeah, I don't plan on holding Ninjago long term. At first I was planning on dumping all the red boxes this Christmas but I may just hold on to them longer. As long as the line is active it should be a good bet.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Oh for sure. That is what I was saying. It's hot now, so anyone should do well :)
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    10195 has been making a slow climb over the past few months. Any guesses on how will perform at Christmas?
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I think 10195 Republic Dropship will continue to do really well. It went under the radar when it was out, I don't think lots of folks stockpiled them. I only ended up with one, which is unusual for me on a retired set like that.

    Also... the Gunship is a pretty iconic ship in the Clone Wars timeframe, and the dropship is very similar.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    Here's something that hasn't been discussed.
    What about these SDCC Minifigures (Bizzaro, Shazam, Venom, Phoenix)?
    What are y'alls thoughts on those as far as future prices by say.. next year?
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ They're gonna tank once it's revealed that someone at TLG was taken out of context when they said these figs won't be included in any sets.

    Just kidding - I know you have a bit invested in these figs. :)
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    ^Are you trying to give me a heart attack @sidersdd? ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Hahaha
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^At least you got a cheap date out of that new Gold C3PO to cheer you up Sam! I think I'm waiting till hell freezes over being the SDCC figs hit my threshold.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I heard somewhere that the release of the DVD boxed set of Shazam will include the same figure given away at SDCC and it will be a Walmart Exclusive.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^Be still my heart (and lord please keep Sam's heart beating lol!)
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^^ Oh, so it'll still be "exclusive"? Nothing to worry about samiam. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Exclusive to the largest retailer in the world...lol
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    How is the old SDCC Superman doing on the market anyways?
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    @Pitfall69- Seriously? Pulse is picking up a bit here right now...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    My mom is a district manager at Walmart and she was telling me it was on their ordering paperwork skew numbers and what not.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    ^And she said there's a LEGO minifigure included with the DVD set? That sounds weird... but if a Walmart manager said it...
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I would love nothing more than for all of the figures at SDCC to eventually be released in some form or fashion on a larger scale. It would bring a great smile to my face and I am not even interested in buying them (unless they were CMF prices). The insanity that goes on with those "exclusive" figures boggles my mind. I got caught up in it years ago with the first batman/joker exclusive from SDCC. I swore never again.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Didn't a Young Han Solo come with a Blu Ray not too long ago?
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^^ Pitfall69 is the werewolf! Oops, wrong game.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Still some Imperial Shuttle's for sale on eBay at retail price, and it seems Amazon.it has a great deal on them. I'm likely picking up a third today, using a LEGO coupon I have, which doesn't really bring it much below retail price after tax. Should be an interesting one to watch if it is indeed gone gone gone.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    @Pitfall69- Did it really?
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ Young Han Solo came with the Lego Star Wars Padawan Menace DVD/BluRay movie. It may have been a Wal-Mart exclusive package. I can't imagine a Lego fig coming with a non-Lego Shazam DVD pack though.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited July 2012
    ...it seems Amazon.it has a great deal on them.
    Not sure where you're located, but Amazon Italy is extremely restrictive on what Lego sets they will ship to the US (at least to me, in California). Of course, the Imperial Shuttle is one of the many sets that they wont ship here.

    The Tower Bridge is also an amazing deal right now at EUR 152. But they wont ship that one here either :(
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    I can't imagine a Lego fig coming with a non-Lego Shazam DVD pack though.
    @sidersdd- Exactly what I'm thinking... that just doesn't make sense to me if it's a regular DVD release of Shazam.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ It doesn't? Just think how many more of us idiots will buy it if it does. ;)
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    ^That's true. But also just think of how much of a "child-like" sense it gives to the DVD, if people who aren't into LEGO are thinking of buying it. To me, it just doesn't make sense to release a LEGO item with a DVD that has nothing to do with LEGO.. perhaps I'm just holding onto hope to much..
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Ok ok ok I'm just pulling your leg buddy. I just wanted to see you sweat alittle so...I kiiiid I kiiiiid :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The fact I was going to have my sister who is a graphic designer do a mock up of the set with the figure should tell you something...lol. I just couldn't go through with it.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    edited July 2012
    .....

    Sweat a... little? You'll be receiving my medical bill for the last 24 hours in the mail shortly..
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ I really don't think it makes much sense either and find it unlikely, but then again I don't think most of the junk they put in those 'exclusive' DVD box sets makes much sense, so I wouldn't put it totally out of the realm of possibility. Especially if Lego was using it as an 'in' to get people interested in the super hero line to hopefully sell more sets.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    The fact I was going to have my sister who is a graphic designer do a mock up of the set with the figure should tell you something...lol. I just couldn't go through with it.
    lol.. you, my man, are cruel ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Sorry :) I had to have alittle fun.

    Yeah, they released to Shazam figure to coincide with the release of the DVD set right?
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