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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    The new Ninjago bad guys are going to be pirates, right? I think we'll see at least one decent ship in late 2012, early 2013. It'll probably have fantasy elements to it which may or may not be appealing to collectors.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    For QAR, you can part one out now on BL for $245 in "market value" by piece.

    Sells the figs on eBay, and maybe gross $260. Long sales process though to sell all those parts, years and years.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    For QAR, you can part one out now on BL for $245 in "market value" by piece.

    Sells the figs on eBay, and maybe gross $260. Long sales process though to sell all those parts, years and years.
    I think the reality with "parting out" such a set is that the first 1/3 of the parts may sell quickly, say in 6 months, the second 1/3 may sell over a few years, the final 1/3, may never, ever sell.

    Really, how many basic bricks, plates, and such really sell on Bricklink? (that is really a question, as a non-part seller, I have no idea to tell the truth, it just doesn't seem like the common stuff would sell)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Another consideration is that if it takes "years and years" to sell... Why not just keep it MISB, wait 1 year, then sell it for $200 and you avoid all the headache and time and effort...
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I sell on BL here and there with parting out.

    At first, sales are dead, until say you hit the 10,000 part plateau. Then you started to get a few. Then you hit 20 or 30,000 parts and sales pick even more. And so on.

    It's definitely a lot of work - to sort, keep organized, ship tiny packages - over and over. You really have to like that sort of thing. Sometimes people will buy 1 single part and pay $3 shipping. If you don't mind the "dink and dunk" approach, you can make nice profits, and still have a large supply of parts.

    I found sets like, Glove World, produced excellent profit while the set remains active. I think that's the key. It's not about selling retired sets, as much as it's selling current sets, and using the profit to reinvest in what you'd like to keep MISB for aftermarket purposes, or whatever.
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^ The 1 part orders always amaze me. I've ordered quite a bit on BL and I always look for something else to add to my order. Any shade of gray slopes or small bricks for my mountain/rocks in my train setup, pieces to expand my CMF shelves, pieces towards the multiple MOCs I have in progress etc.

    I got an order the other day for 1 1x2 brick for $0.08. Feel bad charging my minimum shipping on that but it barely covers what it costs to ship and the bubble mailer.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    ^ The 1 part orders always amaze me.
    I must admit I have done plenty of small orders over the years. If I pull out an old set to rebuild and it is missing a piece or two I will do a cursory search through our draw of loose bricks and if I do not see it I will order it from bricklink. I figure $5 shipped for a part or two is cheaper than spending 45 mins of my time going through all our gear.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I figure $5 shipped for a part or two is cheaper than spending 45 mins of my time going through all our gear.
    Yes, it really is, but why not add a few more parts, the cost is so minor per part, add to your collection while you're at it. :)
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^^ I just add missing parts to a "replacement part" wanted list and get them as available when ordering other stuff. I probably have 10 sets at any given time that are in need of a few pieces. I add the parts to the list with the set # in the comment field and write them on a piece of paper to stick in the bag with the set. Most of them are things I've put together from bulk lots and will sell when complete but I'm never desperate enough to put a specific set together that I'd spend $5 shipping a 10 cent part.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Sounds good. If I win, you send me an interesting minifig(doesn't have to be expensive) and I'll do the same if I lose. Deal?
    To paraphrase Beautiful Girls... Bad bet. Either way you lose. If you lose, you're out a minifigure. If you win, your set sold for less than most thought it would. It's a bad bet.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I am the type who will not build until the set I am on is complete. A few mouseclicks and in a week the pieces are at my door and I am ready to go. I don't want to pull my hair out looking for the missing pieces at home and I also don't want to pull my hair out looking for a seller that has a long list of my missing pieces - that joy is reserved from when I am bricklinking a big set from scratch :)
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Sounds good. If I win, you send me an interesting minifig(doesn't have to be expensive) and I'll do the same if I lose. Deal?
    To paraphrase Beautiful Girls... Bad bet. Either way you lose. If you lose, you're out a minifigure. If you win, your set sold for less than most thought it would. It's a bad bet.

    Meh.. If it goes for more than $20 then it's a bonus for me, as I thought it to be worthless. I've opened and built one and it's one of the worst sets I've built since coming out of my dark ages, and the minifigs are below average. I don't mind sending a minifig to a fellow collector either. It's one small set, if I lose a few bucks I don't really mind. I just recently bought a UCS Falcon from a bricksetter that arrived today, so any cash right now is a plus
  • effalconeffalcon Member Posts: 71
    i'd happily give you $30 for that :P
    shipping would hurt though :P
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    Looks like I missed out on getting a free minifigure:).
  • joshvp99joshvp99 Member Posts: 1
    Sweet! I've just received my free minecraft giftcode!

    >> Minecraftcodes.info <<
  • SecretjediSecretjedi Member Posts: 175
    Modular Fire Brigade should be an obvious one?

    This should be close to ELO , you think?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Modular Fire Brigade should be an obvious one?

    This should be close to ELO , you think?
    Fire Brigade will be slow to rise, at least for a while, simply due to its longevity (this has been discussed elsewhere in this thread, though).

    As for Electric Light Orchestra, I love them.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Now we just need some sets named PJ and STP.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Peanut butter and Jelly?

    Super Turbo Power?
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^ lol. Too old for STP?
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    Tip: Think 90's grunge :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited July 2012
    I am the type who will not build until the set I am on is complete. A few mouseclicks and in a week the pieces are at my door and I am ready to go. I don't want to pull my hair out looking for the missing pieces at home and I also don't want to pull my hair out looking for a seller that has a long list of my missing pieces - that joy is reserved from when I am bricklinking a big set from scratch :)
    Same here. I always inventory a set into a bag until it is complete and then I build. learned that nugget during the first LEGO lot was I was reconstructing back into sets.. nothing is more annoying than getting into a page 5 on an instruction book to find a piece was missing... I hold off and 9 times out of 10 if I only need one part from a seller I usually try to find a few other interesting parts, or parts I may think I may need in the future (if they are not terribly expensive) that way someone does not have to pay more to ship the part than it is actually worth.

    The maddening thing, and the main reason that I really started sorting my pieces I have at home, was ordering a part then finding I already had the part about a week later while searching for another...


    Also AMazon also has most PoTC on sale, some good deals some not so much. But they have the Carriage Escape for those that missed it in the LEGO store and the The Mill is a better price via Amazon at 28 bucks
    I'm still hoping the Whitecap bay goes lower than 70 as I really like those for parts.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526

    Really, how many basic bricks, plates, and such really sell on Bricklink? (that is really a question, as a non-part seller, I have no idea to tell the truth, it just doesn't seem like the common stuff would sell)
    I buy a lot of bricks (mainly 1xX) and plates on bricklink. For people that are into MOCs rather than official sets, these pieces are very useful. Of course, the colour has to be right ... tans, greys, browns and black, with the occasional sand green and blue.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439

    Really, how many basic bricks, plates, and such really sell on Bricklink? (that is really a question, as a non-part seller, I have no idea to tell the truth, it just doesn't seem like the common stuff would sell)
    By the looks of it, a lot. Two things though:

    1. You have to have a big store that has these common parts in bulk.
    2. It helps if you are in a larger country with a significant local customer base. On cheap parts that have lower value / weight shipping costs are more of an issue.

  • JBricks27JBricks27 Member Posts: 678
    How much longer do you think 10214 Tower bridge will be around?
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    How much longer do you think 10214 Tower bridge will be around?
    Its being advertised in the UK summer Lego Mag for the Olympics so quite a while yet i would say
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    How much longer do you think 10214 Tower bridge will be around?
    At least until the end of this year, probably another year after that as well.
  • JT32JT32 Member Posts: 124
    ^ Is it ever going to be cheaper than it is at the moment though? I bought one from amazon.it and had it shipped to the uk for a total of £147, which is a very decent price. I'm very tempted to snap a few more up at that price.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    The last time the conversation on EOLing of 10214 came up in this thread, the consensus was it would be gone by the end of this year and that it was primary hanging around for the Olympics. There are more comments on it earlier in this thread.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    From other sources MMV will EOL December of this year, provided stocks last that long.

    Here is the list which has been correct so far so believe what you will:

    10193 medieval market village december 2012
    10197 fire brigade december 2012
    10216 winter village bakery december 2012

    10219 maersk train december 2013
    10211 grand emporium december 2013
    10214 tower bridge december 2013 (extended due to popularity)
    10217 diagon alley december 2013
    10218 pet shop december 2013
    Oops...I meant to say end of 2013. I guess it all depends how it is selling into 2013.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I just can't believe 3 modulars EOL the same month. Pet shop has got be around another year into 2014. Unless it's just really a poor seller. I think it's the weakest Modular to date, IMHO.
  • tvihtvih Member Posts: 92
    Hmm, if FB indeed lasts to December, that should be just enough for me to get it in early Dec if I find a reasonable price (i.e. preferably not the 189,95 euros from S&H...) But time will tell I suppose. No real personal interest in others in that list (since I've already ordered MMV).
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 630
    Anyone have any thoughts on the GB minifigures? Will they still be in demand after the Olympics? Is it better to hold on to a few sets? They are currently selling on ebay for approx £30, does anyone think they will go up or down?? thanks
  • BalloonistBalloonist Member Posts: 58
    Anyone have any thoughts on the GB minifigures? Will they still be in demand after the Olympics? Is it better to hold on to a few sets? They are currently selling on ebay for approx £30, does anyone think they will go up or down?? thanks
    I'm going for an increase. Around here they are proving very hard to find and It will take Lego too long to make another batch. I've taken mine off eBay for the time being.

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Hey I wanted to ask the gang on thoughts of the Lex Luthor polybag (Batman 2 game release). Prices on this are going up quickly on eBay, now breaching $40. I'm guessing it's because the supply is low and reasonable demand.

    Will Lego reproduce this set for store release, or leave it to be a low production run polybag to go the way of white Boba, chrome C3PO, etc. (The same question can be asked of Batmobile mini; Thor polybag; and Loki polybag).

    Or will they fill stores with it like they did with the Harry Potter lab polybag (which was available via game first as an "exclusive")?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Hey I wanted to ask the gang on thoughts of the Lex Luthor polybag (Batman 2 game release). Prices on this are going up quickly on eBay, now breaching $40. I'm guessing it's because the supply is low and reasonable demand.

    Will Lego reproduce this set for store release, or leave it to be a low production run polybag to go the way of white Boba, chrome C3PO, etc. (The same question can be asked of Batmobile mini; Thor polybag; and Loki polybag).

    Or will they fill stores with it like they did with the Harry Potter lab polybag (which was available via game first as an "exclusive")?
    Given what has happened to the last two game "exclusives" it wll be instore or online for $2.99 b4 too long.

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Thanks. What was the other exclusive to go main stream retail?
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Hey I wanted to ask the gang on thoughts of the Lex Luthor polybag (Batman 2 game release). Prices on this are going up quickly on eBay, now breaching $40. I'm guessing it's because the supply is low and reasonable demand.
    In the UK, eBay prices are about £6-£9, so about $10-$15 US, including shipping.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    Hmm, might not be the best place for this question, but this topic seems to be the closest as I'd like to ask about a long EOLed set.

    Anyhow recently I've found a sealed 7171 Mos Espa Podrace set in a small toystore. The box has some shelfwear at the corners and there are 3 small price stickers on it but otherwise is in fine condition. Price was 95 USD.

    What would you do with it? On BL no sealed one was sold in the last 6 months even though it's available from a lowly 150 USD. Part out value on the other hand is a nice 230-240 USD. Would you part it out? That seems to be the logical solution to me but it would feel a bit awkward to open such an old sealed set. Your thoughts?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    In my personal opinion, 7171 had value before the current Pod Racer sets came out, but since those have been out more than 6 months, that is probably why you're not seeing any sales on this item.

    The current Pod Racer set has been for sale for as low as $60 or so, multiple times. Kinda hard to make the older set worth $150. :)
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    My opinion, leave it sealed. I sold a complete set with box (opened) for $135 last Xmas. It took awhile to sell - about a year. Problem is you're fighting the second version available now. I would guess it should sell for $150 before year's end.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Thanks. What was the other exclusive to go main stream retail?
    Voodoo Jack Sparrow for pre-ordering POTC.

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Right. The Hogwarts Express mini was also a tricky one. Initially a freebie with $50 or $75 buy at [email protected] Then it was blown out for $5 each thereafter. I wonder if Sopwith Mini; Hulk Minifig or Chrome C3PO will go that route.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Possibly the Sopwith mini, I doubt the Hulk or TC-14 will be sold for $5.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^ I think originally the HE was a freebie with any DA purchase.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I just can't believe 3 modulars EOL the same month. Pet shop has got be around another year into 2014. Unless it's just really a poor seller. I think it's the weakest Modular to date, IMHO.
    I disagree. You get 2 distinct models to build. I'm planning to buy several and make a block of brownstones. As was mentioned in another thread, there is plenty of repetition in CC and GE and Market Street IMO is very weak.

    Based on that, I believe PS will be a strong seller in the aftermarket.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    In my personal opinion, 7171 had value before the current Pod Racer sets came out, but since those have been out more than 6 months, that is probably why you're not seeing any sales on this item.

    The current Pod Racer set has been for sale for as low as $60 or so, multiple times. Kinda hard to make the older set worth $150. :)</blockquote

    I agree that the new podracer set is better than the previous version, I would have to argue that completionists like yourself would still want the old one. It's not like it's a re-hash of an X-wing. 7171 has 3 podracers and while Selbulba is not really a minifigures, people will still need him to complete their collections.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I would have to argue that completionists like yourself would still want the old one.
    Fair enough... But I'll never buy it, no interest at all... It would have to be in the $40 NIB price range for me to add it to the collection, and even then it would be a "maybe".

    But that is just my take, if you only have 1 to sell, you only need 1 buyer. :)
  • BlueTaylorBlueTaylor Member Posts: 51
    edited July 2012
    Any suggestions? I am just a collector at this stage but have thought about buying an extra of each Lord of the Rings sets and holding onto them for a while (a year? More?) to resell at a later date for profit. If they would be anything like Harry Potter I could make some money off this but knowing my luck I'd just end up selling for the same as I paid -_- I am kicking myself for selling the Shrieking Shack, Escape from the Merpeople and Dumbledore's Office a few years back. Damn was I stupid!
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Probably, but nobody knows. Come back in two years to find out!

    If buying for resale, I'd wait for an offer - they are not moving that fast.
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