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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    Can anyone confirm that info?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Being limited or being rare doesn't mean it will become valuable. The automotive industry puts out "limited" editions all the time. Most of them are junk and I wouldn't give you two cents for one. I actually wish everyone the best in their investments. I want everyone to succeed.

    In light of the recent news...I don't know.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I just got 5 Minecraft at TRU before they sold out. We'll see if they jump up in price. They don't even show on [email protected] now. Typically that means a set is gone for good, doesn't it?

    Also, the set sold consistently over retail on eBay. I think it was worth getting 5 of them.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Ya.. Probably best to sell quickly before the news get out that they are producing more.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    Even if they produce more, it'll be another limited run. Then [email protected] will be sold out for a few months, then back in stock, repeat. During the "down time" there will be opportunity to make some money on it, if one wishes too. Small profit - not really worth it.

    Same can be had with DA and DD at times.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Small profit - not really worth it.
    Small indeed... I try not to play that game, there are several large sellers who do, making pennies for all their capital and effort.

    Generally when I pick items to buy, doubling my money is the goal. Not always possible, and sometimes for fast moving stuff I'll accept less, but it is the aiming point.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yes, I would rather just list 1 set, pack one set, and ship one set rather than deal with several sets hoping I get my profit. Time is money. I was looking at completed listings for Minecraft and most sets went for under $60. Some went for $40 and under. After listing and selling fees, I don't see much profit worth my time. We will see how this plays out.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited June 2012
    That is assuming that you purchased the Minecraft sets at full retail in regards to making a small profit, so it varies person to person. Personally I used VIP points and got 3 of the 5 I ordered for free.

    The set sold out surprisingly fast and like another poster has said, when they produce another run, I don't see that going any differently. The fact that the public is buying these up at $50+ on a regular basis *when they were still available at $34.99* tells me that this set will do well. What happened when news suddenly broke that the sets are sold out? Even savvy Lego collectors on this site were willing to pay $60 to quickly snatch up what little stock was left in order to *lock in* a lower purchase price.

    Just my opinion.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,572
    ^ Were they savvy or were they panicking when they thought there were limited supplies of it with no more to be produced? Surely how well it will do in the aftermarket depends on how many are produced. If they produce another 10,000 and stop, it will probably do well. If they keep producing more and more batches over the next year, not so good. Nobody knows how Lego will play this one.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    The market for Minecraft is small, IMHO. There are no figs. There are basically small parts only (aka Architecture Series). Reproducing these from a basic collection at home would not be hard.

    It's new. So there is always interest in brand-spanking new stuff.

    I would put the Mini Modulars VIP set in this boat too. Micro-scale sets. A city display without minifigs though just doesn't quite do it for me.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    That is assuming that you purchased the Minecraft sets at full retail in regards to making a small profit, so it varies person to person. Personally I used VIP points and got 3 of the 5 I ordered for free.
    Just my opinion.
    Well, I would look at it this way. VIP points earned from previous purchases does not make a good deal on a new purchase. VIP points are a 5% discount on any given set. If you let your VIP accumulate, and apply them to a single transaction, that still does not make your discount any greater on your current transaction.

  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    Here in the UK minecraft is still selling on ebay for £50 , and since its still available at [email protected] (£35), I really do think these are selling to minecraft followers rather than lego collectors.
  • SecretjediSecretjedi Member Posts: 163
    If I lived in the US and had some Minecraft, I'd sell them now while there is a shortage, make a few quid, then buy the replacements with a few extra bucks sitting in your wallet
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Without minifigs, there goes half the collecting market.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited June 2012
    Don't under estimate what a small set can sell for. How much to some minifigs sell for? Remember, most buyers don't apply logic. It's an emotional purchase. The LEGO store set which was given out for FREE for those at a LEGO store opening with a $35 purchase are selling for $70+ on eBay now. So, it wouldn't be a stretch to see MC selling for $100.00. Plus, I don't think most eBay buyers have the info (they don't know the set is coming back into production) that people on Brickset have. All they know is that they can't find the set anywhere and need it for their kid. I'm not saying that MC is UCS MF caliber, but I wouldn't just brush it off as nothing much either. It will definitely be interesting to see what it sells for on eBay before it is back in production.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Everything new sells like crazy at first.. Jabba's Palace is going for over 200 bucks. In 2-3 months you probably wouldn't get retail price at an auction.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ Isn't that because Jabba's Palace isn't out yet in most of the world? You have no choice but to buy one for $200 on ebay. Minecraft has been widely available at the same time ebay prices were double...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,669
    Don't under estimate what a small set can sell for. How much to some minifigs sell for? Remember, most buyers don't apply logic. It's an emotional purchase. The LEGO store set which was given out for FREE for those at a LEGO store opening with a $35 purchase are selling for $70+ on eBay now. So, it wouldn't be a stretch to see MC selling for $100.00. Plus, I don't think most eBay buyers have the info (they don't know the set is coming back into production) that people on Brickset have. All they know is that they can't find the set anywhere and need it for their kid. I'm not saying that MC is UCS MF caliber, but I wouldn't just brush it off as nothing much either. It will definitely be interesting to see what it sells for on eBay before it is back in production.
    This is a debate that has raged across many threads. Small vs big.
    It depends how much effort you want to put into it.
    If you do not want to have to stuff a room full of 20 dollars sets hoping that eventually they hit 40 or higher then more power to you. You also better guess correctly.. as iif you do not you will wind up with 100's of sets not worth what you paid...

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,669
    Everything new sells like crazy at first.. Jabba's Palace is going for over 200 bucks. In 2-3 months you probably wouldn't get retail price at an auction.
    Its all relative to how long you must wait to sell that set at that kind of profit.. especially with the more people that are saving sets to sell later... but again it is personal preference
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ I don't want hundreds of Minecrafts, but I'll take a flyer on 5 of them, and hope I can make a quick few hundred bucks profit in the next few weeks/months. Absolute worst case will be $20 profit on each if nothing changes near term -- not the greatest, but I'll take it.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    Jabba's palace isn't that popularon uk ebay - managed to sell 2 at UK RRP to pay for my own, all the ones just a tenner more haven't shifted.

    That minecraft set holds no interest to me. Buy one for £35 and maybe make a tenner on each one after all charges? Lots of chew for not much reward.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ 5 minecraft at $30 profit each minimum? I'll take $150 profit anytime for 5 minutes of my time to pack them up and drop them off at the post office on my way to work...
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,345
    edited June 2012
    Yep, on new stuff its all about the timing. I've parted out a new JP from amazon.es for £140 and still have Oola and Jabba left for display as they are all I wanted. Won't be able to do that come August. A couple of days prior to Xmas 2011 one of the catalogue sites (very or isme, can't remember) were shipping the then new winter SW sets - #9488 etc at RRP - I was parting those out for £50+ until they were widely available or just selling sealed ones for £40.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Iron Man, Hulk, and Black Widow were fetching high prices right when they came out, now they've dropped off the map.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,345
    #6868 Hulk is still a good sell at £20-25 when Tesco decided to let some of us lucky ones have sealed copies for £12 !
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Ya, Hulk is still doing pretty well.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    Bandit: Maybe in America theres $30 a piece profit in them, but here in the UK they go for £50 and Ebay leave you with £45 before paypal take their cut, and it cost £35 + postage fron [email protected] £8 each net of [email protected] postage (if you buy 4 or 5) and paypal. Doesn't make sense in the UK unless you really don't value your time or plan on sitting on these for maybe a lot more money.

    I did OK from Jabba's Palace, bought 4, kept 1 for myself, parted out figs from another ( kept Gamorrean Guard), sold 2 for UK RRP. Net result is I built a big Palace from 2 sets, populated it with all figs from 1 set plus an extra Gamorrean Guard, and got all my money back spent from buying the 4 sets. I don't mind a return like that when I get Lego for free, but if it's some theme I have no interest in, there has to be a decent return to pay for the next purchase.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^ 5 minecraft at $30 profit each minimum? I'll take $150 profit anytime for 5 minutes of my time to pack them up and drop them off at the post office on my way to work...
    Wow, you are a fast packer (insert joke here)

    All the power to ya :) I'm sure nobody here wishes you fail on your $150 windfall. Personally, it's not worth my time and effort. My postman is erratic in picking up mail, so I always have to go to post office. Time driving there and waiting in line and gas.


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    As far as the minifigures argument. I made my nephew an awesome spaceship out of spare Lego parts and I gave it to him to play with. His first question was "where are the "guys"?" I told him I don't have any. He pretended to fly it around alittle then put it down 2 mins later.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I would love to know, outside of UCS models, what Lego sets are in high demand that don't come with minifigures. You guys are on the clock. GO!!!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,669
    10155 Maersk Cargo ship I believe is one.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited June 2012
    ^^ I guess my point was, I'll take a chance on a possible short term $300+ profit, with a likely guaranteed minimum $100-$150 profit. We don't know when more of these are coming, it might be months, and like someone already said, the general population doesn't know they're not gone forever -- they might very well hit $100+ soon...
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,345
    edited June 2012
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10155 Maersk Cargo ship I believe is one.
    I wouldn't call that set "high demand"...

    Demand, perhaps, a bit... but not a huge amount...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #10019-1
    Ditto, this one is not in high demand, I'm not even sure it rates as "demand" anymore. Minor bits of buying here and there, but the fact that price has fallen since Christmas and it has been out so long, it just isn't going anywhere any time soon.

    Just one person's opinion...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Yes and that's a UCS set.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited June 2012
    ^^What's so bad about 10019?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^Yes and that's a UCS set.
    Yes, but it is an older set, I suspect that the majority of people who are collecting UCS sets at this point are not trying to get them all due to the cost, so they draw a line somewhere and live with it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I would love to know, outside of UCS models, what Lego sets are in high demand that don't come with minifigures. You guys are on the clock. GO!!!
    ^^What's so bad about 10019?
    Nothing

  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    In demand/no minifigs
    Taj Mahal
    Eiffel Tower
    Statue of Liberty
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Those are great examples, but are they selling alot on Ebay/Bricklink or is everyone just "bricklinking" those sets?
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    edited June 2012
    The only reason they aren't selling a lot is because of the few sets for sale and the ridiculous prices, if they were MISB at 2x rrp they would be moving fast
  • tvihtvih Member Posts: 92
    Ditto, this one is not in high demand, I'm not even sure it rates as "demand" anymore. Minor bits of buying here and there, but the fact that price has fallen since Christmas and it has been out so long, it just isn't going anywhere any time soon
    I don't pretend to know the market well, but from a personal point of view I'd rather just get 10198 instead of the 10019, because I think the former looks slightly nicer. And I even saw a decent deal on a 10198 just a few days ago. Too bad I couldn't - and can't - afford it regardless, just like with a lot of good deals going on right now.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^That is a no brainer. UCS MF rocks, but it has minifigures. I can't imagine the selling price if it had exclusive figures.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    I would love to know, outside of UCS models, what Lego sets are in high demand that don't come with minifigures. You guys are on the clock. GO!!!
    Using the Advanced Query Builder, with criteria of sets with no minifigs, created after 2009, a rating greater than 4, and number owned greater than 1000, I came up with:

    #10230 Mini Modulars
    #30051 Mini X-Wing
    #5865 Mini Dumper
    #5761 Mini Digger
    #5762 Mini Plane
    #8200 Radiator Springs Lightning McQueen
    #8210 Radiator Springs Classic Mater
    #5867 Super Speedster
    #8051 Motorbike
    #8099 Midi-Scale Imperial Star Destroyer
    #5891 Apple Tree House
    #8053 Mobile Crane
    #10220 VW Camper
    #8070 Supercar
    #8110 Unimog
    #8043 Motorized Excavator
    #10214 Tower Bridge

    Of those, these had a "number wanted" greater than 500 (aka 'filter out those sets which people own but didn't really want', aka 'got it as a present'):

    #10230 Mini Modulars
    #30051 Mini X-Wing
    #8099 Midi-Scale Imperial Star Destroyer
    #5891 Apple Tree House
    #8053 Mobile Crane
    #10220 VW Camper
    #8070 Supercar
    #8110 Unimog
    #8043 Motorized Excavator
    #10214 Tower Bridge

    Going back another year picks up the #7778 Midi-scale Falcon, #6754 Family Home, #8265 Front Loader, and #8258 Crane Truck.

    A couple others come to mind, which didn't quite meet the criteria:
    #8547 Mindstorms NXT 2.0
    #10226 Sopwith Camel

    A couple things to note:
    (1) Sculpture and technic sets are likely more popular with TFOLs and AFOLs.
    (2) The Creator houses now contain minifigs.
    (3) I always thought the midi-scale stuff bombed. Weren't those two sets always on clearance?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    @tvih

    I don't know the market well either, but if you find a good deal on 10198, buy it and hold onto it until 6 weeks before Christmas and I bet you'd make a nice profit.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @Pitfall 69 @Bandit

    Yup, it's been debated a lot about big vs small sets. I will sell MC sets every week for 50-100% return after only keeping them a few weeks. Listing the auction and mailing them is nothing. Usually I get the priority mail boxes for free and have my postal carrier pick them up. Minimal effort and time on my part. Plus, from what I have seen so far MC is going to be a money maker. It's just a matter of how much. Virtually zero risk in getting 5-20 of them and selling them along with everything else I sell. Especially when the current supply is gone. We'll see.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    @sidersdd

    Great work!!! As I was reading I was thinking that "now creator sets contain a minifigure" and then at the end you mentioned it. That right there should tell you something...that Lego decided to put minifigures in their creator sets.

    Now, what we need to do is compare the non minifigure sets with the ones that contain minifigures.
  • byolegobyolego Member Posts: 114
    edited June 2012
    I know Lego.com has the Seaside House 7346.
    Target.com has it but it is now out of stock.
    Walmart doesn't have it yet ....
    Amazon doesn't have it yet (only 3rd party w/ ridiculous mark-up)


    Just curious if you think this is going to be like the LEGO Creator Apple Tree House (5891) sold everywhere for a long time or whether it is going to be a short run.

    Should I get it now or wait till Black Friday for instance?
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    I will sell MC sets every week for 50-100% return after only keeping them a few weeks.

    sorry, getting late... MC?
    thanks
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