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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    This past year we took everything down from our fireplace mantle and put up a complete Christmas theme... The three WV sets, along with a bunch of smaller Christmas polybag sets...

    Looking forward to putting that back up this year. :)
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I'd love to get some of those gold bricks in the bubble ornaments. Those sold out wicked fast on [email protected]
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I'd love to get some of those gold bricks in the bubble ornaments. Those sold out wicked fast on [email protected]
    I missed those as well, but I did get some of the green and red bricks... got those in the local Lego store, since they sold out just as fast online if I recall...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    IS is now sold out from Amazon.com... 3rd party sellers of course have it, but the $207 price is gone for now...

    Will be interesting to see if it restocks...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited June 2012
    ^--- Wanted one more but could not pull the trigger on it (plus I got the Helms Deep)... I'm kinda hoping that LEGO lists the PoTC on clearance at their site as I really like the pieces in those sets, but not the Retail prices...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337

    By your reasoning the Cafe corner would not be about 1200 dollars because its parts would not add up to that.

    CC is $950 sealed all day long. This price is indeed the sum of the bricks, box and instructions and a small premium for the offical Lego air. Break the seals and its price is exactly the sum of bricks, box and instructions. Believe it or not there are quite a few parts to CC that are extremely expensive, trust me I have bricklinked a few copies myself.

    Having said that I did not realize Haunted House did not have 1x8 in sand green. GG should stay flat thru the next year.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Imperial Shuttle (10212) has now been discounted by 20% by Target, Walmart, and Amazon...

    What do you all think, summer sale, or is it getting ready to go for when the B-Wing comes out?

    I personally get the feeling it won't go until Christmas, and even then it is a maybe... Shame if it goes, beautiful set... anyone who likes big sets, likes Star Wars, and thinks "aww, it is just a shuttle, what is the big deal", needs to see one in person, on the stand, with the wings deployed...

    It is larger than 10188 Death Star in width and height...
    I think 10212 will certainly make way for the B-Wing. It may last until Xmas but I don't see TLG producing anymore so it could go b4 then. Scooped a bunch today and they should be good to go Xmas 2013.

  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    Looking at the GG instructions, on floor 2 you could easily replace all the 1x8 sand green bricks with 2 1x4 bricks, without any compromise to stability. The only exception is one instance on the left front wall where you would want to do a 1x6 and 1x2 instead.

    On floor 3, the 1x8s frequently overlap at the midpoint along the back wall, so the 2x 1x4 solution would result in panel walls - not desirable. However, the same wall also contains a 1x3 on each row, so adjusting the position of those in combination with the 1x4s coudl result in overlap at each row of building. You may want/need to use some 1x6s instead as well.

    Bottom line - you can build the GG without any 1x8 sand green bricks, and still have overlap on each layer.

    LotR has 1x1 (8) and 1x3 (4) sand green in the Uruk Hai army set, and 1x1 (53) and 1x4 (10) in Helm's Deep. HH will have 1x1, 1x2, 1x4 and 1x6. don't see any 1x3s in the pictures, but there could be a few. I say definitely no 1x8s by the look of it.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787

    By your reasoning the Cafe corner would not be about 1200 dollars because its parts would not add up to that.

    CC is $950 sealed all day long. This price is indeed the sum of the bricks, box and instructions and a small premium for the offical Lego air. Break the seals and its price is exactly the sum of bricks, box and instructions. Believe it or not there are quite a few parts to CC that are extremely expensive, trust me I have bricklinked a few copies myself.

    Having said that I did not realize Haunted House did not have 1x8 in sand green. GG should stay flat thru the next year.

    I have seen sealed CC go for 1200 in the past, but again it is summer. I guess we will see what goes for what this Fall/Winter.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    edited June 2012
    Not discontinued but if I am able to secure a second one of these babies do you think the flowing would be a fair trade?

    So the lowest price on this set on BL is around $100 US dollars. So would I be asking too much if I were to trade a sealed, MINT condition #3300003 for lets say a Shuttle Expedition/ VW Camper Van?
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ I may take you up on that offer with a shuttle. I can't recall, do you have a U.S. location to ship to?
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    ^ I may take you up on that offer with a shuttle. I can't recall, do you have a U.S. location to ship to?
    I guess. I will have to cross the border and pay a fee. :/ But remember, it is an IF I get one. ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I would trade a Shuttle Expedition for a 3300003 set... I have an extra in the closet you're welcome to if you'd like to do that.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Anyone have a feeling when the first wave of Super Heroes are set go EOL? Seems like they would EOL this year given wave three is already set to come out. Just wondering if I should be taking advantage of sales yet :P
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    edited June 2012
    @sidersdd @LegoFanTexas Do either of you have 3222? I've wanted this set ever since it was discontinued.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ Yes, I do. I'd be happy to work out a trade with this set.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited June 2012
    Anyone have a feeling when the first wave of Super Heroes are set go EOL? Seems like they would EOL this year given wave three is already set to come out. Just wondering if I should be taking advantage of sales yet :P
    Boy, that's hard to predict. I would guess Dec 2013. End of this year would seem too early. But for a new licensed series with years to go, I think we've best to look at the shelf lives of early SW or HP sets. Anyone remember how long early SW or HP shelf lives were?

    Whatever the case, Dynamic Duo has to be the early favorite to be the aftermarket kingpin of the group from the 1st wave.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    @sidersdd @LegoFanTexas Do either of you have 3222? I've wanted this set ever since it was discontinued.
    I have one as well, but since he was first... :)

    Boy, @sidersdd, you are quick on the trigger. :)
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    Anyone have a feeling when the first wave of Super Heroes are set go EOL? Seems like they would EOL this year given wave three is already set to come out. Just wondering if I should be taking advantage of sales yet :P
    Boy, that's hard to predict. I would guess Dec 2013. End of this year would seem too early. But for a new licensed series with years to go, I think we've best to look at the shelf lives of early SW or HP sets. Anyone remember how long early SW or HP shelf lives were?

    Whatever the case, Dynamic Duo has to be the early favorite to be the aftermarket kingpin of the group from the 1st wave.
    Well, we are seeing Summer 2011 Star Wars sets being clearanced now at some places, and just not restocked at others - so about a year of prime shelf life, then a slow dwindling of supplies after that is probably the expectation for non-LEGO retailers (online being different)

    I'd expect LEGO to sell these items directly (in store and online) at least through the holiday season, and probably into summer 2013

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    SW Lego came out in 1999, I don't think looking at TLG's business practices from 13 years ago during a very different economic time, both for them and for the world, should apply much to 2012 and SH sets...

    Just my thought on the matter...
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    @sidersdd @LegoFanTexas OK guys, I'll let both of you know the outcome of my trip once I get back on Saturday. I'm planning on picking up the GE so might get two mini sets. It really depends though. :)
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    Someone asked thoughts on 3300003. Whether it would increase substantially a year from now or if the prices are currently at the peak. This really depends on whether or not they continue to do this in the future or if it's only for this year. If they come out with a different set for next years GO's or just stick to the minifigs only then this set could get a decent amount higher (there will only be 3000 total sets), but this set seems to be a perfect freebie (attracts tons of interest and is good marketing) so I would guess that this may be given away for years to come.

    I currently am in the same dilemma, I have 2 sets and one is listed on my bricklink store but for a price that is above what I'm sure anybody will pay while I decide to actually try to sell or wait.

    Any other thoughts?
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    ^ No, this set will only be available at 10 LEGO store grand openings this year. So expect more exclusive grand opening sets in the years to come.

    But that is what i'm afraid of. What if the set goes up to $200? I could get another SE for that. But it could sink down to $50 if they plan to release this set for another year. So it is a big gamble.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    edited June 2012
    Your post is confusing to me. What are you saying NO to? Folowed by saying it will only be available at 10 store openings this year, and then say expect more in the years to come. By more do you mean more different ones? And then the second paragraph is a little confusing to me as well.

    BTW each store has exactly 300 sets so if they stop this year there will only be 3000 total.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    Sorry about that. I don't think I explained myself too well. So what I meant in the first paragraph was, because of the huge success in these exclusive grand opening sets which were only available at 10 store, TLC will probably release another exclusive set for the 2013 grand openings. Hope that wasn't too confusing. ;)

    Second paragraph:

    I was answering your question of "I currently am in the same dilemma, I have 2 sets and one is listed on my bricklink store but for a price that is above what I'm sure anybody will pay while I decide to actually try to sell or wait.".

    So what I'm saying is, this set could eventually go up in price to $200. And for two hundred bucks, I can get another Shuttle Expedition (see trade posts above). Being said that, the set could also drop to $50. So it is a huge gamble on whether or not you want to sell it now or keep it for a later date.

    Got it? :D Let me know if you don't. lol.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    edited June 2012
    Gotcha, but I would say if you think they are going to do a different GO set next year I wouldn't worry about the value going down. With that few sets available I can't imagine it ever going for less than $100. If I was confident they weren't going to keep releasing this set I would hang on to it for a while, but I'm not as sure.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    But that is what i'm afraid of. What if the set goes up to $200? I could get another SE for that. But it could sink down to $50 if they plan to release this set for another year. So it is a big gamble.
    Consider that $100 today is perhaps worth more than *maybe* $200 in a year... Or not, but never turn down cash money in the hand if it is a fair offer... Yes, this might be more in a year, or less, or who knows... But $100 for this set is 40 cents a part, that is a good amount any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. :)
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    edited June 2012
    ^ and something tells me they would continue to use the same set in 2013 grand openings as well.
    Lego's press release says this:
    this set is only given out to a select number of customers with a qualifying purchase during the Grand Opening Celebration. We are proud to announce 10 new locations in North America opening in 2012:
    notice that nowhere does it say those 10 locations are the only time this set will be given out, it just says that they are the ones this year.

    why go to the expense to design, test, retool, new packagin, etc for a different version for a very limited run in 2013 when you already have this one ready to go?

    It will always be a limited quantity item, so it's not like the price is going to tank. But personally, I would take the $100.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ No, this set will only be available at 10 LEGO store grand openings this year. So expect more exclusive grand opening sets in the years to come.
    Do you have a source on this, or is it just your speculation?

  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    And from the lines they've seen for this set that also leads me to believe they have no reason to change it any time soon.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    ^ No, this set will only be available at 10 LEGO store grand openings this year. So expect more exclusive grand opening sets in the years to come.
    Do you have a source on this, or is it just your speculation?

    After rereading the press release and what you said in your previous post, you are correct. It does not state that this set will only be given out at those 10 locations, just lists the 10 new stores opening this year. My apologies for this mistake on my part and providing false info.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ no worries, it's easy to combine those two separate pieces of information into one more meaningful thing. nothing to be sorry about. I just thought maybe you had more info from elsewhere.
  • td8981td8981 Member Posts: 6
    edited June 2012
    Just as a small side note, the estimate of 3000 store sets is slightly low. If I had to guess, I'd put it somewhere between 3500 and 4000; From speaking to volunteers, I know the stores get a decent amount extra so that they can give out 300 in the promotion and still have extras for volunteers/staff.

    (Not that that amount is going to make any kind of difference in price speculation)
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432


    Boy, @sidersdd, you are quick on the trigger. :)
    I'm just quick to spot the deals. When I played high school golf they used to call me "eagle eyes." Oh wait, that's because I always caught people cheating.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    ^ No, this set will only be available at 10 LEGO store grand openings this year. So expect more exclusive grand opening sets in the years to come.

    But that is what i'm afraid of. What if the set goes up to $200? I could get another SE for that. But it could sink down to $50 if they plan to release this set for another year. So it is a big gamble.
    We are heading to a grand opening this weekend looking to scoop 10-12 of these sets. We will be selling them all once we get back. Nothing to say TLG won't be selling these for $15 later this year.

  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    How many people are going with you? Unless its 10-12 good luck!
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    edited June 2012
    ^ No, this set will only be available at 10 LEGO store grand openings this year. So expect more exclusive grand opening sets in the years to come.

    But that is what i'm afraid of. What if the set goes up to $200? I could get another SE for that. But it could sink down to $50 if they plan to release this set for another year. So it is a big gamble.
    We are heading to a grand opening this weekend looking to scoop 10-12 of these sets. We will be selling them all once we get back. Nothing to say TLG won't be selling these for $15 later this year.

    :-O, 12? Good luck with that. Unless there are 12 people going with you I doubt the manager will be willing to let you have 12 of the sets even if you make separate purchases. Heck, a guy even bought a DS for $500 and only got two.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    A more fundamental question might be, how many new stores does Lego plan to open next year?
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited June 2012
    ^^shouldn't be a problem if he has a few of these:

    image

    would need 11 different hair colors of course
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    LOL. These would work too:

    image
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    nice! In extreme emergencies, a sharpie and a sombrero never fails:

    image

  • KulshanGirlKulshanGirl Member Posts: 67
    Hey! That's MY disguise. >=P
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited June 2012
    I would go for a different approach.

    I would go for a different approach.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    How many people are going with you? Unless its 10-12 good luck!
    There are 3 of us. From other people who have been to other grand openings there is no issue lining up again after each purchase until they are out of the promo sets.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    edited June 2012
    I guess it just depends on the turn out. The one is was at had around 500 people in line at opening time and from talking to the manager the last person that got a set got in line about 30 mins before opening. I have heard similar things from other openings as well, but maybe you'll get lucky.
  • KulshanGirlKulshanGirl Member Posts: 67
    ^ Sweet! In that case, I might score a couple of these.

    And, I am going to print out a little sticker of my generic Mr. Yuck avatar there and stick it on my jacket. Say hi!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I guess it just depends on the turn out. The one is was at had around 500 people in line at opening time and from talking to the manager the last person that got a set got in line about 30 mins before opening. I have heard similar things from other openings as well, but maybe you'll get lucky.
    Yep if that does not pan out I will be the guy buying these for $50 outside the door lol.

  • BenxBenx Member Posts: 2
    What are you guys thinking of set 10219 Maersk Train and 10231 Shuttle Expedition?
    1) Are you thinking they will disappear soon? I think they will be gone end of this year.
    2) How will these sets do in the aftermarket? I think they look nice and will do nice.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited June 2012
    10231 maybe, 10219 just came out.. judging by the previous Maersk sets it will be about 2 years.. no no guarantee that it will be gone for good right away, if the cargo ship was any indication.
    So while eventually it will probably go up in price once discontinued, Im guessing the Maersk Train will take a bit as Im sure people are stocking up on them.. it is not often a Maersk Minifig is out...
    As for the Shuttle, jury is out.. Just not sure... It is as detailed a set of a Space Shuttle just shy of the one that was on the poster in the 80's
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    10231 maybe, 10219 just came out.. judging by the previous Maersk sets it will be about 2 years.. no no guarantee that it will be gone for good right away, if the cargo ship was any indication.
    It's been out 14 months.

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