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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ things will still appreciate in value of course, I just don't think we will see the kind of ridiculous increases like we did with the UCS Falcon, Cafe Corner, and a few others.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    I'm 100% confident that you will NOT be able to pick up 10188 for $500 two years after EOL (provided they don't release a new Death Star). While I think reseller hording on this set exists, you have to remember it is a difficult set to store (never mind that many people can't afford to sit on many of these sets for years at a time). That's why I'm feel like this set will hit somewhere in the middle of people thinking it will be the next 10179 and people thinking it will barely be worth reselling.
    We'll see, but IMHO the money that 10179 is commanding now is enough to get the notice of those who would otherwise have no interest in stockpiling and reselling Lego, and to folks like that, 10188 would seem like a sure thing. I think this going to result in large stockpiles of this set floating around after EOL chasing returns in line with 10179. $500 may be break even, but once the opportunists realize that they aren't looking at huge immediate returns, my prediction is that we'll see prices hover in that range while they unload what they will come to realize is not a sure thing. I just don't think there is going to be a market large enough or tight enough to generate big returns on this set.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    I disagree that 10179 wasnt bought by ALOT of people with the intention of investment, i regularly look on ebay and there are still quite a few MISB ones pop up for sale, IMO the price is that high simply for the fact of what it is, the millenium falcon.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    edited June 2012
    I disagree that 10179 wasnt bought by ALOT of people with the intention of investment, i regularly look on ebay and there are still quite a few MISB ones pop up for sale, IMO the price is that high simply for the fact of what it is, the millenium falcon.
    But I think that the point with respect to 10188 is that if some people were buying 10179 for investment purposes before it went EOL, how many more people are buying 10188 (or FB) for investment purposes after having seen how 10179 did in the aftermarket? My guess is that the number of 10179 sets that were put away for investment purposes is a very small percentage of the 10188 sets that were, are and will be...combine that with the facts that 10188 has been for sale for nearly twice as long as 10179 and that at least 1/2 of its current lifespan was during the time when 10179 was skyrocketing, and I think we are going to have a ton of sets being sold into a secondary market that is just not going to be that big or have a significant enough appetite to drive prices high.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,194
    edited June 2012
    ^ there won't be a "next 10179". Too many people now are stockpiling sealed sets for future sale to see another set jump up like that.
    If you look at percentage (which is the only way to look at this) it has already happened. Multiple times since 10179.

    < 1 Year:
    10194 %75
    2260 %175

    < 2 Years:
    10198 %210

    < 3 Years:
    10185 %260
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    :)

    ^ So true... but I think the other guy is pointing out that 10188 may not be that set anymore. There are *other* sets that will do it, whatever is actually in demand, but no one is watching.

    DS, FB, MMV, etc. are all being watched a little too closely now...

    Ok, quick poll, how many people have Tower Bridge stocked away?
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    :)

    ^ So true... but I think the other guy is pointing out that 10188 may not be that set anymore. There are *other* sets that will do it, whatever is actually in demand, but no one is watching.

    DS, FB, MMV, etc. are all being watched a little too closely now...

    Ok, quick poll, how many people have Tower Bridge stocked away?
    Not me but i assure you its on my "to put away" list :)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Only holding the single precautionary set for Tower Bridge. Thought its too early to stock up on it. Same goes for Diagon Alley and VW Camper. Just in case they disappear on me without notice, at least I have 1 copy of each for resell, plus the personal copy of course =)
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited June 2012
    ^ certainly way too early for VW Camper - been out less than a year. TB is another question though - it certainly could be the one that just disappears with little warning. this coming BF comes to mind as a possible.

    DA is an interesting case. As a direct set, it should have a shelf life that goes on for quite some time yet. However, it's alsoa HP licensed set, and all the other HP sets will be done and gone by the end of the year probably. does it hang around longer than that with no other HP stuff to support it? Interesting question, we don't really have a comparable precedent.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,194
    ...

    Ok, quick poll, how many people have Tower Bridge stocked away?
    ^ Loaded up on TRU BOGO %50 4 months back ;)
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    The biggest risers will be those sets that most will underestimate in its post-EOL value and not invest in, keeping the number of MISB examples down. At the time there was no SW sets that came anywhere near £350/$500 and many people baulked at the price. Now it is acceptable to pay that kind of money for a current set. For that reason, UCS MF wasn't a big seller when in normal circulation. Now everyone wants a piece of the action thinking that all SW UCS sets of a similar retail price will do the same. I'd guess that over the past year more 10188s have been sold to investment hoarders than kids cracking them open to play with or AFOLs to display, and far more 10188s are being kept right now than were for 10179 when it was EOLed. You're looking for the next "dark horse" to get those kind of gains again, but are there any right now? For me the 10212 is a great set that most (myself included) thought nothing of until seen in the flesh, especially in the UK with a ridiculous price when compared to US and Eurozone.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited June 2012
    @dougts I got spooked on the Camper a couple months ago (I think Jan-Feb) when it went out of stock everywhere and the price quickly jumped to ~$165-$175 in a matter of days. So when it came back in, I picked up two just to feel at ease. Then I realized how having just 1 copy goes a long way in alleviating some unneeded pressure of unplanned EOL. (Learned this lesson on recent AT-AT and King's Castle when I kept pushing off the purchase for a later date). But agree that it the Camper should be around until next year, its a real good seller at the moment. DA is certainly the unknown, with speculation all over the board on its expected EOL. That one certainly has me feeling paranoid I might miss the boat.

    @monkeyhanger 10212 is sure winner, question is only how many folds return and how long to get there. I would stock up on that one before I'd pick up more 10188.

    Perhaps Lego's strategy of extending 10188's lifeline indefinitely is a good way to burn off some resellers in the market? Adding an extra layer of risk by being stuck with product for 1 or 2 years longer than expected. Same goes for MMV & FB.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ there won't be a "next 10179". Too many people now are stockpiling sealed sets for future sale to see another set jump up like that.
    If you look at percentage (which is the only way to look at this) it has already happened. Multiple times since 10179.

    ...

    < 2 Years:
    10198 %210

    ...
    ^ That's supposed to be 10189 (Taj Mahal), right?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,194
    ...

    ^ That's supposed to be 10189 (Taj Mahal), right?
    Correct, thanks!
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258

    Perhaps Lego's strategy of extending 10188's lifeline indefinitely is a good way to burn off some resellers in the market? Adding an extra layer of risk by being stuck with product for 1 or 2 years longer than expected. Same goes for MMV & FB.
    "Consequences" always look like "strategy" in hindsight. But, as has been mentioned, how many veteran resellers will stick around if TLG becomes wildly unpredictable? I just hope that there will be enough room for me and my modest "one for me, one for the closet" hobby to break even.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    I don't do hoard investment, I can't justify sitting on thousands of pounds on sets to keep for a few years. If I see a bargain to make a modest return on quick turnaround then i'm all over it, but at UK prices, we're rarely in a position to compete with US EOL sales when sets like 10212 are approx $380 at rrp. I'm happy enough to spend up to £1000 on a great deal if I know i'll get most of it back before I have to pay my CC bill I used for my spend. I do just enough to get my personal display stuff for next to nowt.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    TLG seem to have the strategy of keeping something going while it sells well. 10188 is probably still a strong seller, recent sale buoyed as much by investors as actual consumers of the set for personal use. Perhaps these investors have artificially extended its lifespan. Until TLG come up with a replacement that'll sell better than whats already out, they'd be daft to finish it. They clearly value their own sales more highly than those of investors, they're not in it to make other people money by finishing a set that still makes them an acceptable return.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @Brickarmor but with less resellers in the market doing large volumes of EOL sets, wouldn't that help the modest hobby reseller of 1 or 2 copies by protecting the margins a bit better?

    @monkeyhanger hit it spot on, there's a cost to cash flow management. How long can resellers really wait to realize the return on investment and still have it make sense? 1 to 1.5 year for non-AFOL's sounds reasonable. If you were sitting on 10 copies of 10188 at $400 plus tax, that's nearly $5K in inventory product, can you really stand holding onto it for 2 years before it even moves in price? Then imagine adding 2 years before it goes to ~$600 - $650 each.

    I'm sure its still a concern for them in some way or another. I think TLG should aim for a healthy balance of resellers, instead of trying to extinguish the market to prevent extortionary practices of extinct sets. It's a symbiotic relationship for certain demographics of their customer base though.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    10188 should do well right away. I see these selling for $600 the day it EOLs and most folks get these at $300 each from TRU. Way too early to stock up right now tho...FB and MMV are the most exciting sets to EOL Dec 2012 (or before if they sell out). 10188 has a few more years yet IMO.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,194
    ...
    I'm sure its still a concern for them in some way or another. I think TLG should aim for a healthy balance of resellers, instead of trying to extinguish the market to prevent extortionary practices of extinct sets. It's a symbiotic relationship for certain demographics of their customer base though.

    I don't think LEGO cares much at all about reseller. It is all about profits.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    I certainly don't see the harm in buying 1 of each set as an investment, its the hoarder extremists who will be buying huge amounts of each set and destroying the secondary value.

    I wouldnt call myself a reseller or even an investor, if 10188 does happen to go up in value i still probably wouldnt sell it anyway as its such a nice set to have.

    Likewise if i had bought a 10179, no way would i have sold that either.

    Does anyone else agree with me that keeping a Lego set sealed for a while is just as fun as the building process, as i don't know about anyone else but once youve built a certain set you tend to feel a bit of regret about building it as you know the fun of building it for the very first time is over.


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Curious, how many retired SW sets above 1,000 pieces have not at least doubled in the aftermarket? Minimum 1 year retired.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Speculating is fun but hasn't it been pretty much assumed that most if not all recent 10xxx sets do well in the aftermarket and are safe bets as long as you're willing to keep them in storage for a few years...
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ they are all safe bets to gain value, it's just a matter of how much, and how fast. the question is are there better ways to invest the same amount of money?
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    I continue to believe (worry?) that 10188 has years left on the shelf. Assuming I am correct though it certainly adds a new variable to the reselling equation. Many non-AFOLs aren't in this to hang on to expensive sets like that for several years. And the longer it hangs around, the fewer people will hoard it thinking it may never go away.

    Could actually present a pretty interesting investment picture.

    Also, enough DS, FB, MMVs and it will force some re-sellers out of the market because it becomes to unpredictable from a time value of money perspective which in turn would actually shore up the prices in the after market.

    Interesting case study to watch going forward.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337


    Also, enough DS, FB, MMVs and it will force some re-sellers out of the market because it becomes to unpredictable from a time value of money perspective which in turn would actually shore up the prices in the after market..
    I heard this argument when we were all stocking up on Emerald Nights, Winter Toy Shops and Imperial Flagships and prices doubled from purchase price within a day of EOLing. I have no clue how many resellers there actually are and what volume they are holding but double purchase price on mainstream sets is always easily achievable.

  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    ^ they are all safe bets to gain value, it's just a matter of how much, and how fast. the question is are there better ways to invest the same amount of money?
    The "safe" rule has seemed to be to stick with the biggest sets. The Ninjago dragons and the number of folks hoarding the obvious sets may indeed call for reassessment.

    Or the rising prominence of AFOL sites and the continued production of stellar Lego sets may draw unprecedented numbers of new addicts who drain the pool as fast as it can be filled. Maybe a bit too ideal...
  • GamerGamer Member Posts: 32
    All of the POTC sets are heavily discounted at my local Fred Meyer. Are they EOL and are they worth collecting?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ they are EOL. whether they are worth collecting or not is another matter. assuming you mean for future sale value, then the general consensus seems to be both ships probably are good bets, everything else is more of a gamble. at steep discounts, you likely won't lose money, but might not make much either, at least in the near term.
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    All of the POTC sets are heavily discounted at my local Fred Meyer. Are they EOL and are they worth collecting?
    I just picked up 2 MISB Black Pearls for $75 each. I think i got them at a solid price.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I think a few of them at least. Queen Annes Revenge and the Black Pearl...maybe White Cap Bay.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Both ships will do well, theyre fun builds.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,536


    Will it be $500 for the first month or two? Maybe... But keep in mind that IF and EN were both 25% off for Christmas this past year and just a few months later they are doing 2x RRP.

    No offense, but where do you see prices for IF and EN going for 2x RRP?
    I see EN going for only 160-180 all the time of eBay and IF is only going for 270, which sounds like a lot until you factor in that the Retail price for IF was 180... and Retail for EN was 100...
    Oh sure, you may see sets being listed for more, but it is rare to see them selling widespread for 2X RRP....
    By Christmas they may hit these numbers though.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,536
    The biggest risers will be those sets that most will underestimate in its post-EOL value and not invest in, keeping the number of MISB examples down. At the time there was no SW sets that came anywhere near £350/$500 and many people baulked at the price. Now it is acceptable to pay that kind of money for a current set. For that reason, UCS MF wasn't a big seller when in normal circulation. Now everyone wants a piece of the action thinking that all SW UCS sets of a similar retail price will do the same. I'd guess that over the past year more 10188s have been sold to investment hoarders than kids cracking them open to play with or AFOLs to display, and far more 10188s are being kept right now than were for 10179 when it was EOLed. You're looking for the next "dark horse" to get those kind of gains again, but are there any right now? For me the 10212 is a great set that most (myself included) thought nothing of until seen in the flesh, especially in the UK with a ridiculous price when compared to US and Eurozone.
    That's the problem, everyone is buying sets hoping to hit the jackpot. As a result all sets will take longer to go up in value. Will sets go up? Sure I mean Supply and demand will usually make that happen, pending on if those sets are remade (especially in relation to SW sets), but I think too many people are flooding the market right now with sets.
    Time will tell on the sets discontinued last year as to if they see a spike in price or if they are relatively the same price as when the EOL'd last year. To think that the markets on these sets will be more like 10184 than 10182 or even 10185....
    They are going up.. but took a good while to do it.
    Again the good news is that anyone looking for one of these sets right now can get them for a decent price before the fall/winter when prices will start climbing, combined with the summer season dropping prices.. I'm seeing really good deals on Market Streets (considering what they normally go for) and EN going for 160-175 and IF going for only 280. While you make think it is a lot I have a feeling they will only go up in the 'LEGO' season (Fall Winter)
  • ptericpteric Member Posts: 156
    The UCS IS and SSD are gonna do better than the DS, percentage wise.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    edited June 2012
    The UCS IS and SSD are gonna do better than the DS, percentage wise.

    I think the SSD is massively unpopular. It's too long for many people to want to display, it looks very bland and low on detail as it is at micro scale, it has mainly common minifigs (for those interested in them). On a personal level I wouldn't consider buying this for myself to build and display unless I could get it for £150, and thats not going to happen. I don't think many people will miss it when it's gone.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    The UCS IS and SSD are gonna do better than the DS, percentage wise.
    And they are likely to EOL sooner than DS. I see IS doing quite well. It takes some serious capital to buy the UCS SW sets in large quantities. They are rarely on sale; and you've got to hold them for a few years. I don't think there are a lot of people in a position to do that.
  • AvengerDrAvengerDr Member Posts: 453
    The UCS IS and SSD are gonna do better than the DS, percentage wise.

    I think the SSD is massively unpopular. It's too long for many people to want to display, it looks very bland and low on detail as it is at micro scale, it has mainly common minifigs (for those interested in them). On a personal level I wouldn't consider buying this for myself to build and display unless I could get it for £150, and thats not going to happen. I don't think many people will miss it when it's gone.

    But if that is going to be the only example of its kind then it is likely to rise as it is your only chance to own one.... throghout all of eternity! I know I'm going to regret it if I don't get it before it EOLs in the years to come..
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    But if that is going to be the only example of its kind then it is likely to rise as it is your only chance to own one.... throghout all of eternity! I know I'm going to regret it if I don't get it before it EOLs in the years to come..
    Quite true, which is why I bought one for 20% off, even though I have been very critical of the model.

    When it EOLs, I'd be very grumpy buying it later at a higher price. :)
  • berniebondberniebond AustriaMember Posts: 137
    :)

    Ok, quick poll, how many people have Tower Bridge stocked away?
    Well, tbh i got 4 but one for personal use.

    Got the DS recently but this will be the only one i buy (also for personal use)!

    I jumped on 2 FB last week for 115 Euro each, and when they don't hit at least the 200% mark i have very nice pieces for little more than 5c each.

    win-win :-)

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited June 2012
    10221 is one of the few UCS models that should be re-released as it is in no way up to the standards of previous UCS sets

    The sloping on the hulls is far too steep which just makes it look weird when looking at it from the side aswell as giving it a far too narrow appearance unless you look at it from directly above

    The greebling on the side between the hulls totally lacks any detail whatsoever, the least Lego couldve done was to replace the smooth tiles with one of those gear tooth bricks, the engines also lack quite alot of detail.

    And the flat underside just makes the whole model look unfinished

    most of the faults is mainly due to the fact of that pointless bridge, if this had not of been incorporated into the model i certainly think it wouldve looked a whole lot nicer

    I can safely say i havnt bought one yet and doubt that i ever will
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^What parts or aspects on it are you critical of @LFT? No boarding ramp is my biggest peeve, but understandable from an engineering point.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^^What parts or aspects on it are you critical of @LFT? No boarding ramp is my biggest peeve, but understandable from an engineering point.
    Boarding ramp? On SSD? Why would it have one? Are you thinking of IS? I think the IS is wonderful, SSD is the model that needs help.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    ^^What parts or aspects on it are you critical of @LFT? No boarding ramp is my biggest peeve, but understandable from an engineering point.
    Boarding ramp? On SSD? Why would it have one? Are you thinking of IS? I think the IS is wonderful, SSD is the model that needs help.
    A member over on EB made a great job of modding it by completely taking out the bridge adding a bottom and adding more detail :)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    The only thing the SSD will have going for it when it retires will be its rarity as nobody will have bought it :P
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    The only thing the SSD will have going for it when it retires will be its rarity as nobody will have bought it :P
    And for this reasoning alone makes SSD a perfect candidate for an investment.

  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    Does anyone feel that sets from 5-10 years ago will still make a good investment? It seems that Lego investing is all about the new big thing but i'm sure there are some sets in this time frame that still have not reached it's full potential.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    ^There is an excellent article on Brickpicker that talks about this subject, with Town Plan (10184) as an example of potential profits to be had for sets from 5-10 years ago.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited June 2012
    @LegoFanTexas oops, I thought you were referring to the IS.

    But I'm kind of stuck on the SSD as you are. I like the size, but lack of detail on the outside and the boring shape are aesthetically lacking.
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