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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    If the license is really through 2016, I think we're gonna see more Harry Potter sets. Last I checked, the year is 2012.

    However, a quick look at the # of HP sets by year (reference Bricklink) shows something interesting. Nothing released in 2012.

    2001 (11)
    2002 (19)
    2003 (3)
    2004 (14)
    2005 (5)
    2007 (1)
    2010 (6)
    2011 (8)
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^ Last movie was released in 2011 so it would kinda make sense for sets to have stopped in 2012.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Harry Potter is done as of now. This has been known since Toy Fair.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ and that was 4 months ago.
  • parkerwilsonparkerwilson Member Posts: 142
    edited May 2012
    My local walmart just marked the black pearl down to $70 and the QAR down to $80. Should they be bought up at this price, or wait for further mark down
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,830
    ^ If a local discount, I would say it depends on stock. If low, get it now. If loads, wait. You need to check frequently of course.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I think Lego whiffed on Harry Potter. Only 1 set in a 4 year span during the prime of HP's popularity.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    My manager friend said PotC & HP are slated to carry all of 2012. The smaller stores will only carry the bigger sets, however. Obviously this doesn't mean they will be around the whole year but it could explain the reduced stock levels at some stores.

    On a side note, one store I visited today set out their last box of MMV on top of a display post since they are no longer allocating space for it.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I only see the Castles and Hagrid's Hut in stores anymore.. But there is still a lot of them.
  • parkerwilsonparkerwilson Member Posts: 142
    edited May 2012
    On the potc ships, there are 5 of each. Only one of each has a mint box though. i have been watching the stock at this store and they have had the same 5 of each since the new year. obviously the boxes are beat up a little. May buy the 2 mints and see what happens with the rest.

    This is a small town of 20,000 about 50 miles north of LFT :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Even if you told me which one, I wouldn't make the drive to go get them. I think they'll be clearanced out at [email protected] at some point, 25% off there is about the same as those prices, and I don't have to drive anywhere. ;)

    Now if they were 50% off, I'd feel differently...
  • Jasper_ParnebrickJasper_Parnebrick Member Posts: 35
    edited May 2012
    Whats the deal with 10215 Obi-wan's Jedi Starfighter?

    Ok, so I gather from not seeing this on Lego.com anymore, and a few comments around a few different fan sites that this is now discontinued. I'm just curious as to why this one didn't sell as well, or why so many people dislike it? People say it was overpriced when it came out, but I see it going for $89.99 on Toys R Us.ca and I can get it for that same price in the store. Was it higher before? When I realized it was discontinued, I kind of hastily rushed to the store to make sure I got one before it was gone for good.. but there are 18 in stock! So it's not going anywhere soon, and it seems to be a very good price actually - about 13.3 cents per piece, which in Canada, is actually a GOOD price for non-sale items..

    So long question short - what's wrong with this set? Is the expected resale value forecast to be crappy or something? Most people's complaints were cost etc.. but with that factor out of the way.. should I go for it?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,004
    I think the problem is it is Obi-Wan's Starfighter. Nothing particularly iconic either in the design of the ship or its role in the films. Which is the other fault, it is not OT
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I may be going on a tangent, but here it goes. Does anyone know if the Crazy Scientist and the Monster in Monsters set 9466 are the same figures in CMF 4? I see this as rather odd unless they had alot of spare parts lying around just as predicted in talking about the VIP CMF's that are coming out soon. I have a bunch of Crazy Scientists I want to unload and this will probably lower their value.

    I like the theme, but I'll probably only get the castle.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^^ - Regarding 10215, it is indeed overpriced... At a RRP of $99, it was priced at nearly 15 cents a part, which is just nuts.

    It isn't OT, it is smallish for the UCS line, low part count, just generally not that interest.

    It is actually oversized for minifigs, and it doesn't include any minifigs, making it useless for kids to play with. Why spend $100 on this when there are Jedi Starfighters that DO come with minifigs for $30?
  • Jasper_ParnebrickJasper_Parnebrick Member Posts: 35
    Good point Texas... I didn't realize it didn't come w Minifigs, or wasn't minifig scale! Would you still buy one (or two) at $89 and hang onto them for resale down the road?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited May 2012
    ^It would be "way" down the road. They were on sale @ [email protected] for $60 if I recall for a long time.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ - No, at $90, I would not buy any more at this point...

    I have 52 of them stashed away, purchased for $60 each, you'll be a long time waiting to earn anything back at the $90 price point.

    If you really want some, I'll be happy to sell you all I have for $75 each. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    Well I h
    I may be going on a tangent, but here it goes. Does anyone know if the Crazy Scientist and the Monster in Monsters set 9466 are the same figures in CMF 4?
    This is something I noticed too, but have not really looked at the set box to determine it (kinda forgot after the TRU sticker shock set in)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,830
    I may be going on a tangent, but here it goes. Does anyone know if the Crazy Scientist and the Monster in Monsters set 9466 are the same figures in CMF 4? I see this as rather odd unless they had alot of spare parts lying around just as predicted in talking about the VIP CMF's that are coming out soon. I have a bunch of Crazy Scientists I want to unload and this will probably lower their value.

    I like the theme, but I'll probably only get the castle.
    No, they are different. Similar, but different.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    edited May 2012
    POTC and HP are indeed done. I was randomly stopping by Walmarts close to the interstate I was traveling on and saw two locations marking the majority of the sets down to 25-30% at most. The SW Clone Turbo Tank was also included.

    In other news, Walmart must really want the Kre-o Transformers sets off the shelves as they have now hit the $10-$15 mark for the big sets.
  • parkerwilsonparkerwilson Member Posts: 142
    edited May 2012
    I am also seeing the log cabin at walmart for $22, is it on its way out already, or are they just trying to make shelf room?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ already? 5766 came out at Christmas '10, so it's plenty past it's prime in relation to most stuff currently on the shelves. Seems like the past 2 waves is pretty much the shelf-target these days, which is about a year of shelf life. Odds and ends and underperforming sets hang on a bit longer of course. Summer '11 stuff from most themes are pretty much gone from shelves (or in the case of PotC - about to go), to make way for the summer '12 stuff.
  • SteverdSteverd Member Posts: 29
    Walmart has both Whitecap Bay and Queen Anne's Revenge on clearance at my local store. Do you think this means anything? How long have they been out? Is it time to get my Queen Anne's revenge now?
    It was priced at $79.00
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I don't think anything but the ships will do well after POTC is gone. Just my opinion.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ Agreed. I'd be a buyer for QAR at $79. Besides the ships PoTC has been IMO the most disappointing licensed theme to date. Yes, even more than PoP. So much wasted potential.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    ^^^ How much was Whitecap Bay? This is really the only one I'm interested in. OTOH I don't think I've seen this set ever on a Walmart shelf. QAR at $79 is tempting but I'm trying to keep my Lego purchases under $50 for the rest of the year. One POTC set that has gone under the radar is the Captain's Cabin. It's a small set but has a few cool minifigs and a lot of cool accessories (globe, compass, round map, torches). Definitely worth pickng up at $11 or less.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^^^ How much was Whitecap Bay? This is really the only one I'm interested in. OTOH I don't think I've seen this set ever on a Walmart shelf. QAR at $79 is tempting but I'm trying to keep my Lego purchases under $50 for the rest of the year. One POTC set that has gone under the radar is the Captain's Cabin. It's a small set but has a few cool minifigs and a lot of cool accessories (globe, compass, round map, torches). Definitely worth pickng up at $11 or less.
    The cabin set is going for $7 at Walmart now. Saw some at that price last night when I picked up a QAR for $79. Whitecap was around $55 I believe.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    QAR was a fun build. Bigger than I expected. Better build than the Pearl, but the Pearl has sweet minifigures.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    edited May 2012
    It looks as if the U.S. [email protected] store still has not discounted the PoTC sets. Also, Walmart is not selling the sets online at the discounted price :( I'm dying to get both of these ships for well under $200.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    As disappointing as PotC was everyone likes ships and I think the Black Pearl and QueenAnnes Revenge will do well in the secondary market.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^I actually liked The Mill well enough to pick it up for $25, but that was a model to keep, and certainly not one I have any dreams of re-selling later.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    Those Ice Dragons continue to do well. Although it's not a reliable indicator, the sub-£30 ones have gone from BrickLink and there aren't that many on offer.

    And it's certainly got a lively chart on brickpicker.
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291
    ^ There is no way Harry Potter LEGO is gonna hang around that long, surely? I would've thought the popularity will take a nosedive now that they have stopped releasing a new installment of the film series every year.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Hmmm well it looks like 10197 is finally gone from all retailers. It says backorder on [email protected] like this set is finally on its last legs??? I ordered a boatload with the TC-14 promo and only half shipped, the rest are still pending.....wondering if those are going to get cancelled.
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    It appears that it is still available in the UK via [email protected]
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,830
    Yeah, still £100 in UK [email protected]
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Hi all, I relocated the recent Walmart clearance talk to this thread: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/4903/us-walmart-clearance-30-50-off-hp-potc-some-star-wars
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    It appears that it is still available in the UK via [email protected]
    I think it might be done in the USA. The last 142 at Target were snapped up in just a few days last week. Time to head the the local Lego store.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Fire Brigade is once again available from Lego SA US.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Back to the topic at hand, has anyone noticed that Amazon has restocked FB? They show over a thousand copies in stock. Sheesh!
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Hi all, everyone knows that this is the most focused thread, so I wanted to keep it tidy :P

    I split the discussion about the popularity/collectability of the Lord Of the Rings theme to this topic under "Collecting": http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/4953/how-collectable-will-the-lord-of-the-rings-theme-be
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,232
    ^ So much for our first 4,000 comment discussion... ;o)
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 966
    Just reading this thread and it's suggested that part of Cloud City's astronomical prices was the fact that it wasn't widely popular when available, so there are far less available in the aftermarket than popular sets. Anyone think this might happen with any current sets? Something like 7879 Hoth Echo Base, which doesn't seem to be popular at all. 7754 Home One Mon Calimari is another one, but that's gone and there isn't much evidence of it climbing (yet). Obi Wan's Starfighter maybe?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ Hmmm...I think TLG could have done much better with the HEB set. It just seems expensive to me. I do believe it (HEB) will be discontinued soon and will perform well once EOL'd (especially 6-12 months out). The HEB set is a "limited edition" set and those do pretty well after EOL. Also, it has a couple interesting MFs included in the set.

    The other two sets you mention (HOMC and OWS) are more questionable. I actually have an OWS set aside to build with one of my kids, but it doesn't have MFs. Overall, these could be fun sets to build; however, they just don't seem to elicit much excitement among collectors. JMO.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Any ideas when (or if!) [email protected] US will discount POTC and HP? I've got a sore spot called "QAR for $49!" that I need to numb with VIP points... Mid to late June, perhaps?
  • parkerwilsonparkerwilson Member Posts: 142
    edited May 2012
    Honestly I hope you jump on it before then, I think realistically $60 is the cheapest you would ever have a chance of seeing it. At $80 your at about 7 1/4 cents a pieces which is real cheap for a ship, don't bank on anything cheaper, luck will be with you if you do find it.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    Finished building the 10215 and was impressed with it just because of the size. These are still consistently selling for $70 shipped on ebay. Once supply run low, it should start creeping past retail price point.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @lulwut - Next year might be the earliest it goes to retail. What are your thoughts on building it? Was it worth the money you spent? Just curious.
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