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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ I am going to say no. The Death Star perhaps? But only because the set is so large and pricey and not likely to ever be rereleased. I just think a lot of people learned their lesson after CC and GG, and they will be less apt to let modulars slip through their fingers. Thus, creating more supply and far less demand.
  • KanohiKanohi Member Posts: 41
    ^ that's the real question.

    I'd say that we will at some point but it will be a set(s) that no one suspects. An early or quiet EOL, a way over priced MSRP, a jewel of a set in an unpopular theme, or something along these lines.

    Anything that can be predicted as a high riser in the aftermarket gets bought up en masse by us resellers. We all get to double and sometime triple our money but the flood of them on the market does keep prices from going much higher than that.

    My thoughts at least :)

    --Gary
  • JT32JT32 Member Posts: 124
    ^ Yeah i think I agree. Certainly if a set does go crazy in the aftermarket it won't be a modular, probably not the DS either as it's been out for such a long time and already has a high starting price (well worth it imo).
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    "CC will never be re-released"

    You might eat those words someday. Never say never.
    I doubt it. Not when someone from Lego has confirmed it. Why re-release it when they can release a new model that has wider appeal?
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291

    Question is, will we ever see another set that goes up 5,6,700% in the aftermarket?
    I think that depends on how long you are willing to wait.

    :)
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I saw one on Craigslist for 300 bucks awhile back and thought he was an idiot for putting something used at such a high price.. Who's the idiot?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I doubt it. Not when someone from Lego has confirmed it. Why re-release it when they can release a new model that has wider appeal?
    Jamie's a designer so while I respect his word there's always a chance that the marketing department or someone else higher up will decide to do a re-release. I just don't think it's a black and white kind of debate. Movies get re-makes, re-released all the time. ... alright go ahead and use the 'Legends' sets flop excuse ; 0.

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^At the very least, it wouldn't be a proper re-release. As Jamie mentioned, many of the parts that comprise Cafe Corner no longer exist. Plus, it's a terrible model. If anything, you'll get a Cafe Corner-esque building, retooled to meet the much higher quality of current modulars.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, I agree. LEGO has little, or no, incentive to release a carbon copy of a set from years ago. I don't think they ever have, have they?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^The Star Wars vehicles being rehashed count don't they? If so, revisions of AT-AT, M. Falcon, X-Wing, Slave 1, etc. Still rakes in the dough even though everyone is sick to death of them.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,756
    edited May 2012

    Question is, will we ever see another set that goes up 5,6,700% in the aftermarket?
    I think that depends on how long you are willing to wait.

    :)
    It depends on when people will give up trying to make a fortune on LEGO on eBay.. since this answer is 'never', or until the bottom falls out and it is not profitable enough for those casual people to buy and sell, then I'm guessing you will either have to wait long enough for kids that wanted one, but could not get one, to become old enough to afford it.
    So about 15-20 years should do it, for some of these sets..
    I think the only silver lining is that while people will still complain about having to eventually pay something like 250-300 for an EN they should be happy LEGO put out enough stock to keep resellers out there stocked to keep them at that lower price for longer..
    Eventually though the demand outweighs the supply if, of course, the item is in demand.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,756
    ^The Star Wars vehicles being rehashed count don't they? If so, revisions of AT-AT, M. Falcon, X-Wing, Slave 1, etc. Still rakes in the dough even though everyone is sick to death of them.
    SW does not really count in the same discussion as Mods.. While mods are popular, I seriously doubt they sell enough to make reproductions of earlier sets where as SW is a license that brings in a ton of cash so I can see these lines continually redone.. though it boggles the mind why the Cantina, Jengo Fett's Slave 1, and Cloud City are not redone in some kind of way.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited May 2012
    ^ Yup, I agree. LEGO has little, or no, incentive to release a carbon copy of a set from years ago. I don't think they ever have, have they?
    Actually, yes, they have.

    A few examples (there are at least a few more):
    1. 6286 Black Seas Barracuda (re-released as 10040 in 2002)
    2. 6278 Enchanted Island (re-released as 6292 in 2001)
    3. 6074 Black Falcon's Fortress (re-released as 10039 in 2002)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited May 2012
    Sorry, duplicate post
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^^It should probably be noted that the early 2000s may have been a period in which Lego was struggling a bit. Perhaps they lacked the resources at that time to produce large new sets of interest, so they took the easy route and re-released hits from the past.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,756
    ^They also learned from that Legends line, they were selling Metroliners for I think it was 75 per to get rid of them.. many of the sets they could not sell, at least in quantities that would be beneficial to LEGO.. This is an endless debate that will go on forever.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    To assume that CC or any other "collectible" will hold it's value or continue to climb is ludicrous. Ask any one who traded in Beanie Babies. Every hobby has cycles and ebbs and flows. I posted previously and will post again, I've seen prices be insane for sets and 10 years later, 50-60% lower for the exact same sets. There is no way to predict what will stay popular. If you have a CC now, and paid retail for it and are planning on selling it and haven't... to me that's just nuts. Take your money and run. But to each his own. I wanted to keep the one I bought, thinking that I'd like to have them for my kids. My daughter is 8 months old. By the time she is old enough to even play with that set, if the line is still going, there will be 25 or more sets that will have been produced. With what I made on selling CC, I can buy 7 new modulars.

    My point is, don't assume anything is going to keep going up. That's how people lose a lot of money in any investment (housing comes to mind). Markets will always correct at some point. If we see another great recession, there won't be many people spending $1000+ on a LEGO set.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    I doubt it. Not when someone from Lego has confirmed it. Why re-release it when they can release a new model that has wider appeal?
    Jamie's a designer so while I respect his word there's always a chance that the marketing department or someone else higher up will decide to do a re-release. I just don't think it's a black and white kind of debate. Movies get re-makes, re-released all the time. ... alright go ahead and use the 'Legends' sets flop excuse ; 0.

    If a movie gets a re-make, then it is not the original. If they remake the CC, why would they make it exactly the same? Techniques used in the modulars have improved as the line has gone on, so why go back? Sell the same modular, you cut down on the people that want it, since a number of fans already own it. Sell a new modular, you have more takers.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Used to collect baseball cards in the early 90's. If you would have told me the entire market would crash back then I would have laughed in your face. However, Lego is significantly different.
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^ same here. I collected from like 88-92 and pretty much everything I bought is probably worth less now than I paid. And I don't even like baseball. Just liked collecting. When I have kids if I end up with a boy that likes LEGO and baseball he'll be rolling in it since I have 10-12,000 cards.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I have a 1954 Topps Mickey Mantle. Worth probably 30% of what it was in it's prime. Everything else is probably worth 20% of less of what it was. I don't even see baseball card shops any more, used to be tons and tons of them back in the day.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099

    If a movie gets a re-make, then it is not the original. If they remake the CC, why would they make it exactly the same? Techniques used in the modulars have improved as the line has gone on, so why go back?
    That's kind of what I'm saying. They possibly might re-make CC or do a re-design. I know I'm in the minority but I actually think the overall quality of the modulars have declined since Grand Emporium. Pet Shop is kind of bland and Town Hall is rather un-inspired and fugly. My opinion but I'd rather see them re-release Green Grocer and Cafe Corner than release another "designed by committee" modular that the past couple have resembled.



  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,756
    I have a 1954 Topps Mickey Mantle. Worth probably 30% of what it was in it's prime. Everything else is probably worth 20% of less of what it was. I don't even see baseball card shops any more, used to be tons and tons of them back in the day.
    It is because the market for a 54 Mantle is dried up.. anyone that remembers Mantle fondly enough to want a card has it.. I doubt as many kids know about Mickey Mantle than they do Albert Pujols now.

    LEGO how every has a storied past and has been in a child toy chest for decades now and I really do not see that changing from generation to generation. If a kid sees a LEGO set from the 80's they could be just as entranced with it and play with it as if they had a new set now.

    Not to mention baseball cards are boring.. I mean really (and yes I collected in the 90's), you trade them, but it is not like kids were putting these into spokes anymore.. they went from a pack to a trade pile or binder.. and even then it was really only fun when you could trade with other kids, which means if they stopped buying cards you more than likely stopped buying cards....
    I have boxes of old cards in my place.. am I building houses, cars, and building with it?
    Same with Magic the Gathering cards, or Pokemon cards... great but requires multiple people to really enjoy it or it is just a pile of cardboard.
    Now.. With LEGO you can play with the same brick you had 20 years ago and not skip a beat.. YOu can play by yourself, you can constantly change it, it does not have to stay as one form.
    Could this LEGO 'bubble' burst? Sure.. But would not compare it to Baseball cards or Beanies for that matter.. this is a functional toy that stands the test of time.. as long as LEGO does not return to bad junior-ization habits like the late 90's (or as I like to call it LEGOs' own 'dark age')


  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    When viewing Lego as an investment you must look to who the audience is. Your typical big spending customer is a middle aged engineer/computer science type with a large disposable income. I don't think these were the guys chasing baseball cards or beanie babies lol. If the income is there so will the prices. Lego holds a special place for these guys as they were the toys they played with when they were kids, and it is what their own kids will enjoy. This all equals $$$ for the retired sets they want.

    10179 is the benchmark to which all other sets will be compared to pricewise. As it continues to rise so will the other usual suspects. IMO 10179 has a long way to go.....$2500 will be very cheap in 10 years. Just MO.
  • mikersoftmikersoft Member Posts: 57
    edited May 2012

    LEGO how every has a storied past and has been in a child toy chest for decades now and I really do not see that changing from generation to generation. If a kid sees a LEGO set from the 80's they could be just as entranced with it and play with it as if they had a new set now.
    I agree with you in that Lego parts will likely continue to be interesting and very playable to kids of future generations, but I question the idea that complete sets will continue to appreciate & hold inflated values over the long term.

    I view Lego sets and themes in a similar manner as the Micky Mantle baseball card reference. What was an awesome, desirable set to children in the '70s may simply be another box of bricks to future generations.

    Sure, the bricks can still be great & useful for building all sorts of MOCs, but let's face it: A 570 Fire House is very plain and "meh" compared to the 10197 Fire Brigade in the eyes of pretty much anyone who doesn't have some measure of nostalgia for it based on their childhood memories.

    As a kid, I thought the early space sets (483, 487) were totally awesome. Yeah, I still have some nostalgia for them, but there's no way I'd even pay hundreds, let alone thousands, of dollars to obtain the same sets today. Yes, hardcore collectors that are "completists" may pay a premium, but I think that's only a subset of the AFOL community. When one simply loves to build & create cities, stand alone MOCs, SW dioramas, etc, but has a limited budget, they tend to choose sets with the most "bang for their buck".

    Regarding the bulk of TLG's target market: Kids, my 8 year old son would much rather have the Town Hall or a Ninjago set than pretty much anything from 20+ years ago. His future children may have similar feelings toward most of the sets & themes from 2012.

    If sets from the '60s & '70s were still what kids all over the world craved from Santa Clause, there would be no need to come out with newer & better (in most cases) designs year after year.

    Cafe Corner was indeed a groundbreaking set, and it's still unique & very desirable because there's really nothing to directly compare it with and a new & improved version hasn't been designed yet. However, from a design standpoint, it's already been dated by the modular sets that followed it in many aspects. How's it gonna look in 20 years compared what might be available then? If the comparison was similar to 570 & 10197, how many Lego fans (of any age) will still be in the market for Cafe Corner at $1200?

    -Mike





  • mikersoftmikersoft Member Posts: 57

    Cafe Corner was indeed a groundbreaking set, and it's still unique & very desirable because there's really nothing to directly compare it with and a new & improved version hasn't been designed yet.
    What I really mean by that is a newer and better designed building with a similar theme hasn't been made yet. If & when that happens, the "shine" could begin to wear off Cafe Corner.

    -Mike

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ All of the above is true, sealed sets will rise for awhile, then fall down the other side of the bell curve, with only inflation helping to hold up prices for awhile.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,756
    edited May 2012
    ^^^--- in 20 years those who were kids who could never get a Cafe Corner, or afford one, will be adults and presumably with their own disposable income. So will the 'shine' wear off the CC, possibly, but I still think that will not be for a long while.



  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^^^--- in 20 years those who were kids who could never get a Cafe Corner, or afford one, will be adults and presumably with their own disposable income. So will the 'shine' wear off the CC, possibly, but I still think that will not be for a long while.
    Maybe... But there will be a lot of new stuff out in the next 20 years, and how many sealed boxed sets of CC will there be in 20 years?

    Even if they are still going for $1,500, that is a terrible 20 year investment. They would have to be going for $5K or more to make it worth it. Do you REALLY see them going for $2.50 a part in 20 years?

    Ok, maybe, but the number sold at that price would be very small indeed.

    I was a huge Lego fan when I was a kid, which was over 20 years ago, but I haven't a clue as to what I "missed out on", I don't know any of the sets I had, other than "Lego sets that were cool".

    I'm sure not trying to collect 80's sets, they are not up to current standards anyway...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,756
    edited May 2012
    To each their own opinion, I guess. time will tell. But if you want to talk about if someone who pay 1500 dollars for a set in 20 years, then why would you pay that now?
    And if there are very few sealed box sets AND someone really wants one, then Id say someone would pay.. but that is just my opinion
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Lego is very different than all the collectibles mentioned earlier. Magic the Gathering cards are still worth money, but they lose value over time. Beanie Babies and Baseball cards were all worth a lot at one time, but not many people valued them like they do Lego. I value my 10179 way too much to ever sell it and that's the way a lot of people feel about it.

    Like @doriansdad said, a large portion of the consumer base for a lot of big sets seems to be intelligent adults with a nice bank account and a background in either computer science or engineering. For many, the love of Lego is truly real and not just a phase. These people, combined with the growing popularity of Lego, will sustain the market for some time. Prices will drop over time, but only when sets reach past their peak popularity in the aftermarket.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    To each their own opinion, I guess. time will tell.
    You are quite right! Of course no one really knows, we could all be wrong! :)

    I suppose my point is that there are better long term investments than Lego. Lego might make a decent short term investment, but for 20 years? There are no Lego sets, that I am aware of, that have ever provided a good return on investment over 10 years. None, zero, nadda.

    If you can think of one, I'm all ears...

    But even investing in 10030 for $279 10 years ago... Today that set is worth $1,200, or about 4.3 times the original purchase price.

    Ok, I'll grant you, that is a good return over 10 years, if you could have guessed that it was THAT set to buy. Will it go to $5,161 in 2022? That is what would be required to duplicate it.

    The truth is, I doubt it, I think it has found the peak, it will go level for awhile, then down from here. I know this set because I've been active with it, but I was buying this set for $750 just before Christmas, so that is a return of 2.7 over 10 years, much less interesting, but still not horrible.

    Now rewind to 2002, you don't know what 2012 will look like... What do you buy and invest in? UCS Sets? Maybe, but they were brand new then, no track record.

    In 2012, what do you buy? 10221? UCS SSD? 10188? 10197?

    Those all seem "obvious", and rarely is that successful.

    So the trick is that you need to pick out the sets that no one else is watching. Who saw 10195 going to $350 that fast? That is nearly triple what it was on Black Friday, wish I'd bought a hundred of them. :) but then no one was watching it.

    People are now just starting to watch IS (10212) I think, which might kill it.

    If you take the safe path and spread your money across many sets, the duds will kill the returns on the stars. The same thing happens in the stock market. If you had purchased $10,000 worth of Apple stock in 2002, that would have bought you 820.34 shares of Apple.

    Today, that is now worth $434,881.05

    Who would have called THAT! :)
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,161
    edited May 2012
    The pricing of discontinued sets has to be related to how much value you put on the box and instructions and the availability and pricing of the constituent parts. Everything has a ceiling price, and with Lego, if the parts are out there, you can collect the parts and build it yourself. I can knock up a MF for about £400 apart from the obscure grey rigging and printed dish - do I really want to pay £850 for an unboxed example or £1200 for a boxed example if I can recreate it myself (don't underestimate the fun in chasing up all those pieces through parting out sets, bricklink etc - really extends the build!). As for the figures, I am using them from the current incarnation of the MF.

    For a theme like SW, everything had been done before at least once - when the new version is out it generally hammers the resale of the old version as the new version is generally a lot better than the last one - look at the latest Tie and Slave I. Will Lego promise not to release updates to UCS models that have already been out? MF could be done so much better, with a usable interior. There always seems to be scope for improvement. For me 3 years seems to be the max out for resale - almost no risk of a redo by Lego in that timescale on a retired set.
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291
    The way I see it, everytime somebody opens a MISB set then the one in your attic gets a tiny bit more valuable. It's like the Highlander.
  • Cam_n_StuCam_n_Stu Member Posts: 368
    edited May 2012
    ...don't underestimate the fun in chasing up all those pieces through parting out sets, bricklink etc...
    Equally, don't underestimate how few people even within the AFOL community have the time and energy to take that approach or even realise it is a practical option. I've looked at it for a couple of sets and concluded it is just not worth it for me in terms of the time taken. I'd rather pony up some more cash and get it all in one box with the original instructions.
  • LovaqueroLovaquero Member Posts: 23
    ^ You are probably correct - those folks are in the super-minority.

    But for those of us in it, it can be highly enjoyable and lucrative. And completely baffling to everyone else who doesn't 'get it'. ;-)

    The stories I could tell of the the sets that I assembled via BL, piece-by-piece, and then sold as complete sets on feeBay are worth it alone. The tidy profit doesn't hurt either...
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited May 2012
    ^ Also there are those of us who enjoy buying interesting bits with nothing in particular in mind, then realising that you have enough pieces to build set X, if you just get a few more pieces. I often find a seller who is selling the parts I want for a current project, and then I just load up with other interesting bits up to the weight limit for the postage I am paying - even if I have no current use for the bits.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    The stories I could tell of the the sets that I assembled via BL, piece-by-piece, and then sold as complete sets on feeBay are worth it alone. The tidy profit doesn't hurt either...
    Fair enough, but when you compute that "profit", do you put any value on your time?

    If not, no problem, it can be a hobby if you like, but it is something to be considered...
  • voidstarvoidstar Member Posts: 21
    10179 is the benchmark to which all other sets will be compared to pricewise. As it continues to rise so will the other usual suspects. IMO 10179 has a long way to go.....$2500 will be very cheap in 10 years. Just MO.
    In 10 years it will have to be $4000-$5000 just to keep up with inflation. Otherwise even though the price is higher, the value will have actually dropped.
    The way I see it, everytime somebody opens a MISB set then the one in your attic gets a tiny bit more valuable. It's like the Highlander.
    That's only the supply side. On the demand side, every time someone sees the current price and then says "Pfft, forget it, too expensive", the one in your attic gets a tiny bit less valuable. In general that's why sets more or less top out within a couple years' time and then barely outpace inflation.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    In 10 years it will have to be $4000-$5000 just to keep up with inflation. Otherwise even though the price is higher, the value will have actually dropped.
    Very true... While 10179 might well one day reach $5K in price, if it takes a decade, that doesn't mean much.

    It is probably at the top of the price curve right, so while it will keep going "up", you have to consider that against inflation and the rise in the cost of everything else.

    The time to sell it is now, the waiting period is over for that set. :)
  • PlayftlPlayftl Member Posts: 178
    Just curious, any reason why 2518 Nuckal’s ATV is so low?
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^ It was widely available on clearance for 50-75% off MSRP
  • PlayftlPlayftl Member Posts: 178
    I see, I guess I missed out on it. I do need a Kai with the dragon suit tho ;o
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I see, I guess I missed out on it. I do need a Kai with the dragon suit tho ;o
    @rocao is right, it was clearanced for a long time at 50% off from [email protected] and at least that at Walmart.

    That being said, it is starting to recover, and sells well, so the only real problem with it is that Lego produced way too many of them in a short period of time.

    It will probably settle around $30-35 a copy come Christmas.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    The ARC-170 (8088) is 'Call for Availability' at [email protected] Amazon has about 400 left, and it's in stock at Target, as well. I'm not feeling it as a particulary good investment set, but anyone wanting one just for the sake of having one may want to keep an eye on it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    The ARC-170 (8088) is 'Call for Availability' at [email protected] Amazon has about 400 left, and it's in stock at Target, as well. I'm not feeling it as a particulary good investment set, but anyone wanting one just for the sake of having one may want to keep an eye on it.
    8088 has been out a long time, I have no doubt it is going away now, but it is left in stock because at $60, it is $10 over-priced. :)

    CTT was the deal to have, and the first to sell out.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^I'm not sold on CTT, either... but I did pick a couple up for later.
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291
    Has CTT EOL'd? There's still one sitting on the shelves near me for £110. To be honest though, I really don't like the look of the set. Despite the large piece count it's not really an iconic Star Wars vehicle and the minifigures that come with it are kinda... well, crap.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The value of a Lego set is relative. My brother n law was asking me if I thought that new Lego sets are more expensive than when we were kids. I figured they were just because of inflation. I decided to look into it. I decided to use 6390 Main Street and compare that set with the re released version 10041.

    6390 was released in 1980 and retailed for $40 US. It had 591 pieces and it's price per piece was 6.768 cents.
    10041 was released in 2003 and retailed for $65 US. It had more pieces (622) and it's ppp was 8.037 cents.

    Based on this information, it's easy to say that indeed Lego sets cost more than they did 20 years ago, but I do not think it's that simple. The purchasing power of $40 in 1980's dollars could purchase $89.30 in 2003. This is calculated by the percentage of the Consumer Price Index from 1980 to 2003. Based on this information, paying $65 for basically the same set that came out in 1980 seems like a bargain.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    There are many factors that make a set valuable. Obviosly supply and demand. It would really help, if after a set is retired, Lego would post how many copies of that set were produced. This would give us a sense of whether that particular set is valuable rare based on that production number. Using the Lego collectors guide, it gives a rating system of Cafe Corner 1 Yellow brick. This mean the set is NOT rare. So what is driving the cost of this Modular Building? Is it because it's the first of a very popular theme? Is it because nobody really knew that this set would become so valuable and they opened it and built it thus making a sealed set even more valuable? From what I gathered, buying each piece separately and building your own Cafe Corner is quite an undertaking. I think that there are parts in the Cafe Corner that aren't produced by Lego anymore. This might add to it's value as well. $450 to build this set by yourself, throw in the minifigs printed instructions ,sealed ,never touched by human hands, pieces and a sealed box this certainly adds to the value.Im not saying Cafe Corner should be going for $1,200, but 4-5times it's original retail seems ok to me.

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