Shopping at LEGO or Amazon?
Please use our links: LEGO.comAmazon
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

17475777980680

Comments

  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    What do you have? Do you have a bricklink store?
  • BrickStanleyBrickStanley Member Posts: 14
    I would love a HP castle if you want to trade....I also have a 4841 available or anything else you would like, just let me know. Too much stuff to list individually.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Definitely interested in the 4841, and also any Kingdom's stuff. I also have a few more things for trade, I'll start a new thread in the marketplace when I get to a computer. It won't let me start a new thread from my phone.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Just wanted to point something interesting out, which I noticed after reading about the new Kingdoms Chess set (what a cool idea that is!).

    MMV is outselling Joust on Amazon, even with MMV sold out by Amazon and being offered for 35% over RRP by 3rd party sellers and Joust being sold by Amazon at RRP.

    This tells me that the $135 price point for MMV is where it should be today anyway, since people seem happy to pay it.

    What about the Kingdoms Chess set? 32 minifigs for $50, what a deal! The rest of the set is rubbish, that base looks terrible, but a proper brick-built base would have probably doubled the price, which I'd be ok with, but I get that most people just want the figs.

    That set seems like it should do well long term as well.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ That chess set is an incredible value.
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291
    Maybe people are just more aware of MMV than the Joust set?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,404
    ^^^ I wouldn't say the rest of the set is rubbish. There are a lot of 4x4 plates, which are quite useful. The edge of the scenery may be rubbish.

    Also there are not 32 minifigs, as the rooks / castles are not minifigs.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^^^ I wouldn't say the rest of the set is rubbish. There are a lot of 4x4 plates, which are quite useful. The edge of the scenery may be rubbish.

    Also there are not 32 minifigs, as the rooks / castles are not minifigs.
    Fair enough about the plates... Those are never bad...

    As far as 32 minifigs goes... Lego's web site says "Build a 32-minifigure chess set with..."

    So you may be correct, but that is what Lego's web site says. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,567
    edited May 2012
    Maybe people are just more aware of MMV than the Joust set?
    Also, The MMV has been out for a while now and that most speculators are buying the MMV, and the Joust just came out.
    So even if it is not speculators buying up MMV, it may just be people that want to get the MMV first as either it is more useful or that it has been out longer...
    I do think it is also because MMV is a more 'universal' set IMO. You can use it for many displays as every castle town must need a village, where as the Jousting set? Not so much. PLUS i think if you look at the jousting set vs the MMV, you just get more activities with the MMV than Jousting set...

    As for the Kingdoms chess set? 50 dollars was the normal for one of these about 5 years ago, now 50 dollars for that smells of Chinese plastic.. still cool though.
    I still have the knights kingdom LEGO chess set (light blue vs the black) and I think I have a Viking one still (The smaller one, not the 150 dollar one)

  • Skyward72Skyward72 Member Posts: 19
    I have two Tc-14's that I'm looking to sell. Should I list them now, or what some time (hoping their value will increase). I'm new to reselling Lego and do not know how value fluctuates...
    If you can wait they may go up in value in the very near future. Seems Lego didn't make as many of these as last years Shadow ARF Trooper. I would hold them for a bit. They won't go below the current $25.00 range.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited May 2012

    This tells me that the $135 price point for MMV is where it should be today anyway, since people seem happy to pay it.
    I don't think people are "happy" to pay $135 for MMV. Mostly it's the fear of having to pay more for it in the future. What I don't get is that you can still buy it from Target for $99 so I'm not sure what type of consumer is driving up third-party sales on Amazon. People who don't know how to research an item before purchasing is my guess. I also have to question how accurate Amazon's bestselling metrics are. Joust is buried in Amazon's search engine. For example: If you search "Lego Kingdoms", Joust does not come up until you hit mid-way through page 2. Considering that it's the only current "Lego Kingdoms" set in production (besides the new Chess set) then shouldn't it be at the #1 one spot? MMV even pops up before it and it's not even a Kingdoms based set.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I don't think people are "happy" to pay $135 for MMV. Mostly it's the fear of having to pay more for it in the future.
    I don't think the average Amazon customer has a clue about the future value of Lego, they simply make buying decisions based on the prices they see.
    What I don't get is that you can still buy it from Target for $99 so I'm not sure what type of consumer is driving up third-party sales on Amazon.
    You don't get it because you are a price and value customer who does his research.

    There are plenty of people in the world who don't care about that as much, they just go to Amazon because they have a Prime account, get free 2 day shipping, and click "add to cart" and don't think much more about it.

    Keep in mind that those 3rd party sellers aren't making anything...

    $134.99 Selling Price
    - $20.25 Commission
    - $8.85 FBA Fee/Storage/Inbound Shipping
    = Net Income of $105.89

    Out of that, they are going to pay taxes, employees, etc. If you look at the sellers who are selling this set, they have thousands of feedback, these are businesses, not people selling 5 sets out of their garage. The top 5 sellers for this item right now have a combined feedback of 24,000.

    That is a LOT of feedback... Those are all professional sellers with large inventories moving hundreds of thousands of items. The generally accepted feedback rate on Amazon is 10% of items sold (it ain't eBay), so those sellers have sold about 240,000 items between them.

    That is a LOT of stuff.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    We've got an MMV sitting on the shelf waiting to be built. That's going to be our next big "family" build. My wife (who isn't really a Lego connoisseur) absolutely loves the set, which indicates to me that it will do well WHEN it goes EOL. Again, I've always thought it went well with the LotR theme, but maybe that's just me.
  • Brickfan50Brickfan50 Zwolle, NetherlandsMember Posts: 424
    edited May 2012
    Hi,
    I'm new to the modular town sets and see that older sets reach incredible prices on eBay and other platforms. For example Green Grocer and Cafe Corner. Even on amazon.co.uk you find prices like 700-2000 pounds, per set!!
    Am I the only one who has second thoughts about this?
    Right now there's a person in Germany who is auctioning 3 modular town sets on eBay 10185 Green Grocer + 10211 Kaufhaus + 10218 Pet Shop. ebay.com/itm/150812896673?ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1426.l2649
    What do you think about it? Is it OK to pay at least 5 times the amount for the set as compared to the initial price? Of course I realize it's a question of "matter of supply and demand", but still?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The prices are what they are. Till a question you have to decide for yourself my friend :)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited May 2012
    The thing with that lot is that Green Grocer is involved. The other two sets are still widely available. I'd research prices on Green Grocer, see what a sealed one is averaging in your region and then figure out if that lot is worth it. Many times, when sellers put up lots like that, they wind up getting significantly less than if they had sold the items individually. You're still going to wind up paying above retail (more than likely), but it may work out to be a 'deal' on Green Grocer.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,567
    Hi,
    I'm new to the modular town sets and see that older sets reach incredible prices on eBay and other platforms. For example Green Grocer and Cafe Corner. Even on amazon.co.uk you find prices like 700-2000 pounds, per set!!
    Am I the only one who has second thoughts about this?
    Right now there's a person in Germany who is auctioning 3 modular town sets on eBay 10185 Green Grocer + 10211 Kaufhaus + 10218 Pet Shop. ebay.com/itm/150812896673?ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1426.l2649
    What do you think about it? Is it OK to pay at least 5 times the amount for the set as compared to the initial price? Of course I realize it's a question of "matter of supply and demand", but still?
    This has been debated in many threads on this board.
    The prices are what they are. The sets are discontinued and collectors like them well enough to pay those kinds of prices.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Has anyone else noticed that CTT (8098) is gone from [email protected]?

    Glitch, or gone for good?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^We were actually discussing this a few pages back. I think it's gone for good, as it seems to be sold out everywhere. Personally, I don't think it's as good as the original model... which I also didn't care for. That said, it's still likely to do moderately well in the aftermarket.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    It's probably gone to make room for the summer SW sets. I think a UCS CTT or a motorized (with remote) version would be a killer. I remember seeing a custom one on eBay with a video to it for close to $1,000 with instructions.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Try closer to $1500 :P
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    Fire Brigade is out of stock once again at [email protected] with an estimated restock date of June 12th. Man, this is the modular that just won't die! Ha.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Regarding 10197, my local Lego store recently reported to me that sales of this modular have picked up, and not to resellers, they are selling them 1 at a time to consumers. So it seems that demand remains for it. First part of the year, it was all resellers taking the whole stock, now that they have backed off, the customers are back.

    I think we'll see FB actually retire after Christmas, so I think there is time left in this one... Perhaps Lego wants 4 modulars on the shelf from now on?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,567
    edited May 2012
    ^---Well it IS a Fire Station after all
    Still surprising that this has the demand, but again I guess it is a testament to how many new LEGO buyers there are coming into the market. OR People are just reading these message boards and buying one before they are to be discontinued (contrary to popular belief not ALL people buy 5 at a time or total for that matter)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    What are our thoughts on the Black Pearl and Queen Anne's Revenge? I feel like the Black Pearl will do reasonably well, but I'm not so sure on Queen Anne's Revenge.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think both PotC ships will do well in the after-market. The question is, when will they be EOL'd? I'm guessing by August (due to LotR and other licensed items), but that's just a guess.
  • SpaceCakeSpaceCake Member Posts: 291
    edited May 2012
    What are our thoughts on the Black Pearl and Queen Anne's Revenge? I feel like the Black Pearl will do reasonably well, but I'm not so sure on Queen Anne's Revenge.
    It's effectively the "Millennium Falcon" of PotC so I'd hazard a guess towards it holding strong in popularity. And I have heard other users mention the possibility of PotC LEGO being on it's last legs as an overall theme. Although I'm fairly new to this prediction game...

    Edit: As an afterthought, I haven't built or even seen one in the flesh (or bricks, as it were). Anybody willing to sing it's praises as a set? Or bash it down to it's component parts!

    :D
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Don't most pirate ships do well after EOL? If they make another Pirate's movie and LEGO does not resurrect the license, I could see the BP doing very well. QAR will just depend on if it's featured in another film, but I still can't see it dropping.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,567
    I think LEGO will have the license for the next movie, but if they do not simply redo the same ships then they should be worth more.. it all depends though, as of right now there are A LOT of supply.. the good new is if you need a fleet of pirate ships you are set for parts right now.
    I almost think this is one reason for Imperial Flagship Demand (besides being EOL) is that they did not do any Navy ships to 'chase' Sparrow around...
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,274
    ^ Screw the navy. Give me a Dutchman and the pirates can all chase each other and fight. Its the way most of the movies go anyway.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited May 2012
    *Waiting for punchline from YC*
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Don't most pirate ships do well after EOL? If they make another Pirate's movie and LEGO does not resurrect the license, I could see the BP doing very well. QAR will just depend on if it's featured in another film, but I still can't see it dropping.
    Well... the last movie left Sparrow with the BP and Barbosa with the QAR. So if they take up fighting each other again, both ships are a possibility in the event of a 5th movie.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The speculation of Lego giving PotC another shot is a little unnerving. Just can't see them not doing another BP which would effect my inventory :P I think the QAR is the better ship anyway, but there are other ships they could do still.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited May 2012
    The speculation of Lego giving PotC another shot is a little unnerving. Just can't see them not doing another BP which would effect my inventory :P I think the QAR is the better ship anyway, but there are other ships they could do still.
    A really large BP, such as the size of the Imperial Flagship, would be amazing! It would be really intimidating if it were almost all black like the current model. Of course, I sort of doubt Lego would make such a ship, since the target market would likely be kids, and kids likely don't have $200 or so to burn on a single set. Doesn't hurt to dream, though.
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    Hi there, I've been a long time lurker on this forum and have decided to start posting.

    Do people think the Fire Brigade is going to be that big a hit in the aftremarket? Personally I can't see it getting anywhere near the CC or GG purely because of how long it's been available and the growing populairty of the modulars.

    What do people think about the chances of 8110 Unimog in the aftermarket? I think it's a great set and down to £127 on Amazon, seems pretty reasonable?
  • jack_bricksjack_bricks Member Posts: 78
    I just think some people are worried that they get to expensive in the aftermarket and so they buy 2-3. But needles to say I would really appreciate if Lego does a rerelease of the Cafe Corner and maybe another modular building to shock the aftermarket! It's just ridicules to pay 6-8 times as much as the retail price.

    The growing popularity of the modular buildings is a blessing to keep prices in the aftermarket at a rather normal level! I too have 3 or more of one set but I don't expect them to increase in value 500%.
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    Yeah despite having a couple of FB's that i'm sure I will sell on in the aftermarket I kind of hope the prices stay realistic.

    Re-relasing the CC certainly would shock the aftermarket but I can't see it happening, and imo the CC was the least fun to build and not a patch on the current range.

    In the last couple of months I've sold my spare CC for silly money so don't mind how they go but I think it's distorting how people will see the current Modulars in the aftermarket. I'll be looking elsewhere but it seems as if the FB will be around for a bit longer.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    It's just ridicules to pay 6-8 times as much as the retail price.
    What solution would you suggest? Government price controls?

    This is the free market system at work, natural economic forces of supply and demand. If people don't want to pay the current prices for CC, then they shouldn't, then the price will either fall, or the sellers will sell none.
  • jack_bricksjack_bricks Member Posts: 78
    What solution would you suggest? Government price controls?
    No, and you are indeed correct with the other. But I think some rereleases on certain sets wouldn't hurt and to keep a moderate price level with past Lego sets.

    The CC is only as expensive because the popularity of the modular buildings is rising and therefor I would appreciate if other people would be grant access to those great sets as well. Otherwise you'll see those sets further go up as the popularity rises of the modular buildings, due to the fact that a lot of people who are just starting would like to own one of the first sets too. So I don't mind if FB, PS, etc stick around a while longer.
  • jack_bricksjack_bricks Member Posts: 78
    But to be honest I don't think this will happen because Lego is a business and they are not much interested to make us happy rather to make us pay. And what better could happen to a brand than to be a collectors item and to gain in value over time. A lot of the current modulars are just sold because of the aftermarket prices of the previous buildings (CC, MS, GG) and therefor only to make money out of it. - I'd say this with no positive neither negative attitude.

    You're lucky if you're among those who started in 2008 otherwise pay or whine ;).

    Just my 2 cents.
  • jack_bricksjack_bricks Member Posts: 78
    @LegoFanTexas Do you think that CC is ever going to fall back in its value as long as they don't do a rerelease? I have a few collector items (not Lego) and this NEVER happened so far in my life that a item which reached a certain market value, lost in market value.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    There are just too many licensed themes currently being sold by TLG including: Cars, PotC, Marvel, SpongeBob, LotR, Harry Potter, and of course Star Wars. I don't recall there ever being this many licensed themes going simultaneously. I would expect that at least one and maybe two of these themes will be gone in the next few months. My guess would be Cars and PotC. I imagine HP will be gone by years end, but that is just a guess.

    Any thoughts on the licensed stuff?
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Speaking of licensed themes, does anyone know if The Hobit movies will get their own license/theme category or will they be considered part of the LoTR license? Not sure if it makes that much of a difference but still curious to know. If so then clearly some other licenses should fade away by years end to make room for The Hobit which will be released on 14 Dec 2012.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,357
    Hobbit sets are arriving in December
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    should then any popular retired sets be re-released because the value goes up? this would make it less desirable for people to invest in, less new stock available out there when sets retire, bigger prices?? ... until LEGO re-releases them
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,404
    @jacks_bricks

    CC will never be re-released. Will it fall back in value? Maybe, maybe not. It has value because it was the first of the line, and probably less people bought it for resale - it was a risk if the line died after one or two buildings. It also seems to be the one to get if you came late to modulars. Everyone wants the "first one". Plus it is a corner. If the line goes on for 10 years, there will be other corners. There might even be more iconic sets. It will only fall if people don't want it at the price that it is being offered for, and resellers want to get rid of it.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    "CC will never be re-released"

    You might eat those words someday. Never say never.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    CC will never be re-released by TLG. It is heading for $1500. Forget about it and concentrate on the upcoming Haunted House - looks to be spectacular.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    edited May 2012
    We already got confirmation from the TLG designer of the CC that it would never be re-released. (now where is that thread...)

    Oh yeah, here it is: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/58141/#Comment_58141
  • JT32JT32 BasingstokeMember Posts: 124
    CC will defintely hold it's value because as people keep buying up sealed sets to build it makes MISB sets even more rare.

    Question is, will we ever see another set that goes up 5,6,700% in the aftermarket?
Sign In or Register to comment.

Shopping at LEGO.com or Amazon?

Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon

Recent discussions Categories Privacy Policy Brickset.com

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.

As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.