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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ not sure about the poster, but you can order $75 of anything and get the fig
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Don't you have to order $75 worth of SW sets to get the promo fig? You also have to order at least one SW set to get the poster, I believe.
    No. Any order over $75 will get gree shipping, poster and TC-14. Those Earth Defenses were a very good deal.

  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ Yep, I ordered the MBA Level 3 kit, and some CMF Series 7 figs to get over the $75 - got the free shipping, TC-14, R2-D2 poster, and MBA Level 3 poster freebies.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I hope everyone gets their TC-14. The advertisement says the orders have to be SW sets, so I took that literally. Since it doesn't appear to be the case, I have a couple non-SW sets I've been waiting to order...might as well get free shipping and an extra MF.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Forgot to add, there's speculation on other threads that the Imperial Shuttle will be discontinued. I have to disagree for a few reasons...

    1) It's too profitable and popular a set to EOL now...especially with the DS and SSD being the only other high-end SW sets out there (the DS has been around awhile and the SSD costs too much for what you get).
    2) It hasn't been out long enough
    3) It shows a delayed delivery date...not "Out of Stock"...which indicates to me that they will just make more to fill the orders.

    Wish I wouldn't have missed the great deal on the Earth's Defense.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    edited May 2012
    The sale is ok, but not great. Although Grievous starfighter is gone, and it came out at the same time as IS
  • voidstarvoidstar Member Posts: 21
    I've already got shipping confirmation on non-SW orders that include the TC-14.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ you can't compare lifespans of UCS sets to regular wave sets. UCS sets always have a 2.5+ year lifespan. regular wave sets are around a year or so, a bit longer for low-performing sets.

    the fact that the Grievous starfighter is gone is completely irrelevant to the lifespan of the IS
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I've already got shipping confirmation on non-SW orders that include the TC-14.
    that's frustrating. still no shipping confirmation on orders place Wednesday morning...

  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^That's weird, I got a confirmation from last night's order for 1 out of 3. Maybe you should proactively call CS?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Forgot to add, there's speculation on other threads that the Imperial Shuttle will be discontinued.
    Given the DS may hang around for a few more years I would say it is likely IS will go to make way for the B-Wing. FB to make way for Haunted House IMO as well. Just MO.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    well, now i got shipping confirmation on my oldest order from May 2nd, and my newest order from May 4th. the 2 orders in between (May 2nd and May 3rd) are still "in process"

    nothing new though, we've seen their odd fulfillment orders in the past
  • voidstarvoidstar Member Posts: 21
    One clean way to EOL the IS would be to put it on sale, and make as many get ordered in the next couple days. But it does seem a little too early to go. On the other hand, if I'm remembering correctly @LFT said Lego store people told him IS is not selling even as well as SSD.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, that is what I've been told, it is a slow seller... It has the same problem as 10195 did, for just a bit more, you get DS, which is a much more interesting set to far more people.

    That being said, I suspect IS is cheap to make, the box is half the size of DS with a whole lot fewer minifigs, so if the set is profitable and doesn't harm the production of other sets, it should be around for a bit... B-Wing might replace it this fall, who knows...
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^^ Well, the IS has also been around for a year longer than the SSD, which is still relatively new, so I would fully expect the IS to be selling slower at this point, wouldn't you?
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    How do you all think the DS will do on the secondary market? Also when will it actually go EOL? It seems like it's been around forever.

    I bought one yesterday as I've been considering it for a while but I'd like to be reasonably confident I could sell it in a few years and at least make my money back on it. I'm still not sure if I should have got the IS instead but I do prefer the DS model, it seems like it would be a more interesting build.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    The IS is now showing Sold Out on S&H. Does that mean it is EOL?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Showing as sold out does not mean eol, it may mean they are back ordered so far lego does not want to tkae further orders without a reasonable ship date.

    If the next time you can get them is august, does lego want to have back orders outstanding for 4 months?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    ^--- or it means LEGO simply does not want to sell anymore IS with the sale price.
    Im guessing LEGO may have a set number of sets on 'sale' and once that number is hit then 'Sell out'.
    The same thing occurred with 10195 last may 4th only to come back a few times....
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited May 2012
    My store said they sold 7-8 of them today. I bought one of the last two they had. Both boxes were a little beat up. They wouldn't budge on giving a damaged box discount. They did say I could bring it back in and exchange for a good box once (if) they get more.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited May 2012
    Showing as sold out does not mean eol, it may mean they are back ordered so far lego does not want to tkae further orders without a reasonable ship date.

    If the next time you can get them is august, does lego want to have back orders outstanding for 4 months?
    Well... MMV is backordered until the middle of July... so they certainly aren't shy about two and half months, at least.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    ^--- and the DC Funhouse was back orders for about 3 months, but I think that is why LFT said 4 months :-)

    Again I think it is due to not wanting to sell more than 'x' of th set at its current price discount, I think it is easier for them to say sold out OR they hit a mark of x amount of people ordering on backorder.

  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    I follow this thread for a while now (it's very interesting!),unfortunately most times the discussion is only about the "big"sets (100$ and up),i know those are more interesting cause they can blow up in the sec.market,but i'm also very curious about predictions on smaller sets! I for example think that 8092 (Luke's Landspeeder) could do very well,and it seems like it's gonna EOL soon!
  • voidstarvoidstar Member Posts: 21
    So we have a clue on some sets that were being discussed about EOL... backorder dates imply that TLG is still making them:

    FB 12-may-2012
    MMV 16-jul-2012
    IS ??? (I lost the browser tab that had it)

    It would not surprise me if all three lasted until BF or Christmas.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @voidstar - I've stopped buying those three sets because I believe exactly that, they will last until Black Friday, and perhaps until Christmas...

    I don't think they will be gone now, which is why I didn't buy a single IS, too soon in my personal opinion.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I bought a couple ISs, but I think they are coming back anyway. 20%, VIP points and Chrome figures is as good or slightly better than 25%, which is about as good as it gets on this type of set anyway.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I bought a couple ISs, but I think they are coming back anyway. 20%, VIP points and Chrome figures is as good or slightly better than 25%, which is about as good as it gets on this type of set anyway.
    That is true, however if it comes back for the next 18 months, that 25% wasn't a good deal.

    I learned my lesson the hard way with DS and a few other sets over the past year. Better to pay full price when you *know* it is gone, than to get a set for 25% off and *hope* it is gone.

    Just my 2 cents worth... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Actually, there were better deals for the IS to be had on Amazon just before Christmas. I remember the IS going as low as $184 for certain periods of time. It could have gone even lower, but this price is just what i saw...
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ true, but those prices are very few and far between, and don't last long when they do come up. chances are good that I never get that again. I paid $24 more than that price, and got $10 in VIP points and the TC-14. It's a wash or better.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ True, but I think a lot of people here are considering the TC-14 as another $20 to $25 off which makes it not a bad deal at all. I'm certainly not going all in, but I'm picking up a few at this price.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    With the tc-14, the IS is under $180, which makes it the best deal that's ever been offered. I doubt we'll ever see it less again.

    Plus, who knows, it still could very well be sold out for real. We'll find out soon enough.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Actually, there were better deals for the IS to be had on Amazon just before Christmas. I remember the IS going as low as $184 for certain periods of time. It could have gone even lower, but this price is just what i saw...
    Seems that there were a lot of good deals.... Before 2012. I wasn't collecting then so it is a waste of time worrying and comparison shopping. Basically if you really want a set then paying a few dollars (or in some cases hundreds) is what you just have to do.
  • stephenvwstephenvw Lexington, KYMember Posts: 89
    IS is now on backorder at [email protected] Expected ship date of May 25th. Wish I had bought another one yesterday considering the sale didn't continue on through today like I expected.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,077
    Stephenvw: Is IS now off sale where you are, or have they ran out of TC-14? TC-14 still available for UK orders as I just made a pick-a-brick order towards my UCS MF piece-meal build and a TC-14 was included.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    ^The IS and SSD are no longer on sale in the US and TC-14 is oos also. IS is also showing up as Sold Out.
  • voidstarvoidstar Member Posts: 21
    How do you know the TC-14 is out of stock? It's still showing up in the cart.
  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 96
    edited May 2012
    @LegoTexasFan - You had brought up lightsabers a while back. Have you seen this one. I've had my eye on it for a while. A magazine I read gave it good marks.
    amazon.com/gp/product/B004SGRWWG/ref=ox_sc_act_title_9?ie=UTF8&m=A1BITA1FHEJIU5
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    That is a fun kids toy, just keep in mind that it is indeed a kids toy. The one you want is the Force FX version.

    http://www.amazon.com/Star-Wars-Force-Lightsaber-Windu/dp/B003YYXLSW/

    The difference is night and day. And yes, ill admit I have one of the above. :)
  • hleonffuhleonffu USAMember Posts: 243
    @bri4jenn and @LegoFanTexas there are 2 versions - originals done by Master Replica and the recent ones by Hasbro. The hilts are metal based and the lightsaber has weight and feels more sturdy. As LFT said, definitely the ones to have. I have 5 different ones, including Darth Maul dual blade one.

    Sorry for being off topic.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, the Force FX ones generally cost $100 or more, they are made from metal, they are heavy, full length blades that use LEDs to properly light up and shutdown as in the movies, they have the actual sounds recorded from the movies, rather than cheap effects.

    The Ultimate FX blades are 2/3 length, designed for kids to smash into each other, they are cheap plastic, but fun to play with.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    So we have a clue on some sets that were being discussed about EOL... backorder dates imply that TLG is still making them:

    FB 12-may-2012
    MMV 16-jul-2012
    IS ??? (I lost the browser tab that had it)

    It would not surprise me if all three lasted until BF or Christmas.
    I have seen sets go from Out of stock, will ship by X to 'Sold out' (and they stayed sold out).. so I would not put a lot of faith in those lines.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    ^ true, but those prices are very few and far between, and don't last long when they do come up. chances are good that I never get that again. I paid $24 more than that price, and got $10 in VIP points and the TC-14. It's a wash or better.
    Still not as good as the 184 deal from Amazon BUT It STILL is a GREAT deal for those that missed out on the Amazon.com deal. I was just fortunate to get ones at Amazon, so I bypassed this deal as I'd also rather buy three carts of stuff for 75 each and get 3 TC-14 then blow all of my money on a IS and get one figure, but that is just me...
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ well, if I get more than $14 for the TC-14, then it's actually a better deal than the $184
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ people here seem to have no understanding of the value of the tc-14. :)
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,077
    edited May 2012
    Bandit: What value would you put on it? For me the only value you can count on is the immediate value, which for me is £20/$30 - That's what they're going for on ebay/bricklink. Longer term value depends greatly upon whether there will be further giveaways of the product further down the line. If people want to think of it as an immediate discount on their qualifying purchases then fair do's. If you do decide to hang on to them I don't think they'll depreciate from that value. They can only go up from there unless TLG saturate us with them in further giveaways. Anyone got an educated guess on how many TLG will have given away of these in this promotion?
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    I sold two of the TC-14s I had for $30 each on Bricklink.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ yes, I'm considering them worth $20-$30 right now. There may be a big glut for a bit after all these ship out and drag the price down a bit, but I think $20-$30 in a few months is still reasonable. Even buying $75 at full retail from Lego.com right now and getting a $30 tc-14 is an awesome deal. Basically 40% off!
  • voidstarvoidstar Member Posts: 21
    ^ Exactly my rationale too. Being a gearhead, I went nuts on power functions since they're 10% off and get the TC-14... probably got enough motors to make a working life-sized TC-14!

    OK, OK, I might have bought a bunch of big sets too. It all happened so fast! :)
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,077
    Wish i'd stuck another pick-a-brick order in for my UCS MF, but I only put the one in for the items I knew for sure were the same price or cheaper at TLG than bricklink - there's not a lot of stuff available in light bluish grey on pick-a-brick unfortunately. If you were wanting to cash in a TC-14 straight away then £20 off a £50 pick-a-brick order is quite a bargain.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    There are several SW sets listed as "Out of Stock." Which sets are gone for good and which sets are staying? I'm considering the Darth Maul ship, but am kind of financially tapped out right now. Does anyone think it's going to be EOL'd soon?
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