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I don't think LOTR is too adult-oriented for the sets to be a hit with kids. Heavy going, sure, but I'd actually liken it to Indiana Jones in terms of having adult themes but at the same time being quite accessible to younger fans. I can't see anything other than success with this line, it's on another planet to the likes of POTC (which I saw it compared to earlier) in terms of following.
Personally I was 14 when the first LoTR movie came out, and at the time I was a few years into my dark ages as a Lego fan. I'm sure I would have picked up a few sets if they had produced such a grown-up range of Lego LoTR products back then, and I'm certain several others in my class would have done the same. I also clearly remember kids several years younger than me (in their Lego prime) wanted to see the movies, and they could easily do so as it had an 11 year rating (in Norway and most of Europe).
Of course there are many intangibles that come into play to determine whether a line is a success or not, but if the Hobbit movies are nearly as successful as the LoTR trilogy was, Lego could have a runaway hit on their hands. This would likely translate to success on the secondary market, especially with the large number of adult fans of LoTR.
It will probably do somewhere between HP and PotC. When they retire though, I bet they will sell very well because of the AFOL pickup. If they flop like PoP or are short lived, I'll be getting a bunch. The minifigs alone will pay for the sets and the bricks won't go to waste!
This probably needs its own topic, but I'm assuming there are a lot of people on here who break up sets to part out, right?
I view LotR as a grown-up fantasy because it has many sub-themes that kids just aren't mature enough to understand or relate to. On the other hand, I view HP as more escapism fantasy for adults, but primarily for kids (not nearly as deep as LotR). I am referring to the books here.
So to the @voidstar's point above LotR will probably do great with AFOLs, but kids will treat it more like the Castle Fantasy theme. Although I view HP as much more shallow than LotR (Tolkien actually created new languages for The Hobbit and LotR), HP has broader appeal across age ranges and will do better in the intermediate run than LotR.
It always seemed like a male version of Tomb Raider, without Angelina Jolie running around.
There is just something that I can't quite put my finger on... as to why TR is superior to PoP. Hmm... :)
I'm not going to lie... I'm excited too :-)
I watched PotC and thought they got worse with each installment. I have not bought any of the sets but may pick up one/both ships because those look pretty nice.
I watched LotR and loved the trilogy. Can you tell by my username? ;) I will definitely be getting all of those sets.
I saw several AC sets for sale in Wally World today, including the tripod walker, which was $15 after Christmas, but scanned at full price today. They had a bunch of the $10.99 sets and several motherships.
I did find a single Series 5 CMF for $1! Woot! :) The rest of S6 and S7 were all full price. Boo!
Unrelated note, they had much of the Transformers kreo for 50% off, including the big Optimus for $30. Picked up all they had of that.
1. It has lasted longer than other modulars
2. It has stuck around even though it's the oldest of 4 modulars
3. It's still selling at full price through LEGO and was rarely on sale anywhere else
It seems to me that this set was probably quite popular. If not, why wouldn't TLG have put it on sale by now to clear out the remaining inventory and make space for something more popular?
Also I doubt TLG just 'finds palettes' of anything (they probably know almost down to the unit how much they have of everything) so they must have been producing in line with demand pretty well. It just doesn't seem likely that they overproduced and are taking a long time to sell it off.
They must plan to EOL when current demand dwindles below what a new set could command, but since the aftermarket is much smaller than their market, what is small for TLG is still big for resellers. Also the 'hoarding' market is much smaller too and I doubt its enough of a blip to make TLG extend the life of the set.
So you have >2.5yrs of strong demand for a set which helps complete a theme, and a small percentage of that pent-up future demand reserved in aftermarket hoards... I think FB will sell pretty well after it retires, even if not right away.
In the end, though, it doesn't matter that much to me. I do sell retired sets here and there, but not as a means to sustain myself so much as a means to sustain my hobby.
Ok, maybe that is more business 301, but the point remains... There does come a point where continued production of an older item actually hurts a business like Lego, they should be selling TH at a rate several times higher than FB (if not, then that says something terrible about TH). If they devoted the resources FB is consuming to building a set that would sell 3x faster, they'll really make more money in the end.
Finally, it is harmful to Lego if their product is out so long that everyone begins to percieve it as "always around", then people will say 'someday' which really becomes never.
There are other reasons as well...
MMV has overstayed its welcome for the same reason, DS is at risk of doing so, as are a few other older sets.
There are exceptions to this rule of course... The older 6212 X-Wing was around for, what, 6 years? That is ok, because it is the sort of set that Lego must always sell. If they discontinue it, they must make another one. There must always be an X-Wing as long as there is Star Wars Lego, anything else would be foolish.
Ditto with a Lego Police Station, Lego must always have one of those too, and so on.
The GG gained %100 in the first year, and another %100 the following. I would expect the FB to follow %40 and %50 respectfully. Then again its all speculation and a gamble. A gamble with no down side, that is you don't mind consuming the blocks yourself ;)
In the last 6 months only 50 new cafe corners have been sold on bricklink. Have a suspicion that some here have many more than that on their own.
This all said, it is possible that the Fire Brigade is "special" -- we know that LEGO loves its police and fire stations!!
In short.. I'm pretty much done with the Modulars.. they are now oversaturated.. on to the next..
$199.99 selling price
$30.00 - 15% commission
$8.22 - FBA shipping fee
$1.00 - Inbound shipping fee and some storage
Net income after fees - $160.77
Even if they were ALL purchased BOGO50% from TRU, unlikely, but even if they were, that is a lot of work, a lot of orders, a lot of shipping, and a lot of risk, for a few bucks.
Keep in mind, that with those FB, being FBA items, the customers can open them, and then return them, for a 100% refund, leaving the sellers with used, opened Lego sets and no recourse.
Yea, no thanks...
FB can be had for really close to RRP on eBay right now, there is no money there. I was just pointing out that Amazon isn't money either, even with the higher price.
FB needs to actually EOL before any of those prices rise.
Most people that buy these get them on sale and you will break even at worst if you know what you are doing.
As for people having 50 Cafe Corners, I think you give people more credit than they deserve.. not many people realized these would do this (hence the huge price), and I think many supplies have dwindled.
I'm guessing people may have had more than 1, but I'm guessing not many, same with Market Street. Green Grocer is another story it seems like that will have a steady supply, but even with a somewhat steady supply these are still around $500 bucks.
I'm guessing with EN and IF those will be hovering around 250 for the EN and about 400-450 for IF by Christmas, then could rise after Christmas when people get their bonuses and Christmas money.
Considering many people bought the EN for 76 a piece and IF for about 140-150 each via LEGO's sales and deals I'm guessing people are making money, even at prices that are stagnated by the oncoming of Summer (outdoor seasons) and the large supply.
I know we've had this discussion before, but until someone can prove to me that these people are selling FBs for $200 on Amazon (to apparently complete idiots), I'm not going to believe they're selling any at all. :) Has anyone here actually sold current, in-production sets that you can get anywhere, on Amazon for 25% markups above MSRP???
When everyone knows about a good thing.. it's no longer a good thing.. (investment terms - Vanilla is still a good thing..)
Well, like LFT said, at $200, the FB is basically coming out as a wash for the seller who bought them at $150, or a bit of a profit for those who got them at bogos. So $200 is really the *minimum* these can be listed at, regardless of whether they sell or not....
But FB is the Modular I couldn't live without. It's functional, distinctly 2 toned building makes it more realistic, furnished interior and has the best rooftop. It epitomizes what I imagine for Brooklyn neighborhoods of that time period. That's why I believe it will not matter much in the end for the max price based on how many are held for resell. It might be a longer time before getting there compared to CC & GG, but will surely get there.
I think CC will hit 1000, it may take bit longer than Cafe Corner (although it seems to be taking the same price path as CC did, so far at least) but it will. FB may be the first one to only stabilize at 500 for a while, but I think all in all they will go up. The demand is obviously there, and once it is gone you will only be able to get one from a reseller, so while you will not see meteoric rises like the Market street or CC, you will see an increase. Again look at EN and IF.. despite having A LOT out there before it 'selling out' they seem to have risen in price, this also despite them being on 'clearance' via LEGO's site and the EN being constantly sold at 90 dollars on Amazon. The key is they have stabilized now, again I think due to a few factors. I would point out to anyone waiting to find the perfect deal this is it. I think once the fall hits and Christmas shopping starts these are going to climb, despite the number that will most likely be on BL and eBay.T
They may not be world beaters but as long as demand is there they will go up.
I have also wondered if they'll run out of the TC-14's like they did the ARF Trooper last year? Or, did they learn from that and have a ton more available? I put my orders in at 12:15 just to hedge my bets. I would not have ordered most of the stuff I ordered if I wasn't going to get the mini-fig. Regardless of how many they have (unless it is an insanely high number) I think the minifig will go for 20+ this Christmas or next, just like the ARF mini did.