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It's a long ways off, but I think Monster Fighters will do very well when they reach EOL.. maybe I'm just extremely biased, but they look like the first Lego created theme that seem worth your while.. thoughts?
As for Monster Fighters... I think the sets are really well designed, and certainly unique... but that won't mean anything if they don't sell well to begin with. If I had to guess right now, though, the train and the castle seem like safe bets to do well after EOL.
I honestly think that part of retail product development is doing your homework and testing, then throwing enough stuff against the wall that some of it sticks and makes you tons of money, while you just quietly let the dogs go.
Lego has tried with Cars and Toy Story, for all I know they are selling well, but they sure don't seem like it. Yet they came out with another around of Cars sets this year, which I did not expect. So either Lego has paid their licence fee and might as well release *something*, or they are selling better than we know.
Toy Story is similar, none of it seems to really sell well, and none of it is rising in price. I no longer buy any of it, even on sale. :(
Oh well, live and learn.
So what are everyone's thoughts there...
2260 and 2521 are both going like gangbusters in the aftermarket... will that continue once there is a "new" dragon on the market? Is the new set going to reduce demand for the pair of retired sets, since now there will be a "new" dragon to buy?
Will 2507 retire this summer quietly when the new set comes out (after all, they have the same price and similar part counts)?
B) Mostly unrelated... LEGO dragons in general have come a LONG way since I was a kid and I hope this translates spectacularly when an eventual Smaug set is released for Hobbit/LotR.
He still wants to know when he gets a "real" R2-D2, and for that matter, when am I going to get a "real" lightsaber... :)
Come to think of it, I want to know as well! :)
However... $1,200 for THAT?
(or at least it was listed at $1,200 with 3 in stock when I looked at it)
What is that? Like $100 a piece? And not even useful pieces, at that.
I'm interested in the fate of 2507 too. I was watching it on Amazon and the 999-in-the-cart trick failed me. It was allowing 999 for days so I thought I'd wait for the price to drop. Then just a few hours after the last time I saw 999+ available, it was gone. So either the numbers aren't reliable or they're selling them like mad.
I get that he is the only seller on Amazon of that item (however now that I've posted it here, I doubt that will last), but that is insane, he'll never sell one at that price.
Take a look a the first listing on Bricklink for 2507...
How is it "NEW" when it was built for the picture, and why it is listed as "COMPLETE" when it is not the whole set?
Did I miss something in listing 101?
I'm presuming that the originals (CC, MS and GG) are approaching their ceiling price and aren't likely to increase much more in value?
More Star Wars than anything else...
Also, many are truly underestimating the appeal of LoTR. This isn't PoTC that wore out it's welcome in both LEGO and the move theaters. The Hobbit will do insanely well at the box office and that IMO will push sales of the sets and renew interest in the first three films. It's certainly a gamble being made by TLG but the theme could have massive cross generational appeal amongst kids and AFOL's. If the Hobbit bombs in theaters, well then the sets would be dead in the water.
Now's the time to come up with some solid Scooby Gang custom figs. Serious money there.
There's a poor quality set on eBay for $175. Yikes. Strangely, his custom Scooby villians (second link) aren't bad at all. But $38. Another yikes.
Packaging up all the monster CMF figs would be good too. Those are gonna be in higher demand.
I think Cars and Toy Story suffer(ed) from being beneath the prime Lego age, more primary school and daycare than recess and elementary school. Which is where Ninjago appears to be shining. The Pixar lines are something an older sibling would easily pass over as too "babyish," especially if baby sibling is right there going ga-ga for Woody and Buzz. Ninjas, dragons, weapons: if there's any adult who fails to see the allure this has to kids (i.e. boys) maybe we ought to be humbled when we show them Tower Bridge and they go, "What's it do?"
I sincerely hope Monster Fighters is a flop cuz I'll buy it like crazy when it hits half off!! I'm loving the look of it so far. I'm also very intrigued to see how this indecision regarding HP and Ninjago plays out over the next few months and years. It could be quite the crucible for collectors and resellers.
They need to bring some character to the generic Kingdoms line, like individually named Knights that you can recognize beyond their affiliation to Lions faction or not. Similar to how they did Ninjago, with names for each colored ninja and their unique backstory. Can you imagine the King's Castle set including a team of knights like King Arthur's Roundtable, each with their own special weapon and armor? Lancelot in Medium Blue and Pearl Gold armor please!
Way off topic, but last time I checked, Harry Potter was the only one of those books to actually take place in the "real world" all the while doing a pretty reasonable job of balancing the wizarding world with ours. That said, it is still FANTASY. And while I love both LOTR and HP, comparing Gandalf to Harry is not fair. Compare him to Dumbledore and you've got an interesting comparison. Also, as far as the SOIAF books, sheesh. If you want to read about tertiary characters and whatever fleeting thought Martin seems to find interesting, by all mean. He started to wear me down by book 3. I had to take a break from the series. It seemed to be going nowhere.
Back on topic... LOTR Lego should do reasonably well. I don't think they will really be popular with kids, but adults will hopefully pick up that slack. I'm kind of torn on it. I don't know if I'll buy any of the sets. Definitely not at MSRP. Of course, the only sets I'm buying at MSRP right now are Friends sets since I never see them on sale. I want a set for my little girl.
Also, there are tons of adults who will probably want some of the LotR sets and will get them with the excuse of "it's for the kids." It might take until we get closer to the film's release though for them to pick up.
My wife and I just started watching LOTR again this past week, picked up a deal recently on Amazon for the Blu-Ray Extended edition (my lord, 12 HOURS!)
There are some really adult themes and scary parts for kids, I'm actually a bit surprised Lego did this, now that we're rewatching the movies. There is nothing there for kids, the whole movie series is completely inappropriate for kids.
As for the LOTR Lego sets, they aren't aimed at adults, they lack the detail that will get me interested, so I'm not sure who the target audience is.
I predict they will either do REALLY well, or bomb terribly... my money is that they are more like PotC than HP. HP was watchable by kids, PotC was not (or shouldn't have been), neither is LOTR.
Cars and Toy Story *should* have blown off the shelves, but I'm watching the retired prices of some of those sets and it is just terrible. Then again, non-AFOL sets don't tend to race up in price as much, so perhaps that is a poor indication, however take a look at the best seller list on Amazon, or the sales rank. Those tell me none of the Cars/Toy Story sets really sell very well.
Being from a secondary LEGO market, I have experienced something with LEGO dragons. The ones that came out in Fantasy Era. I was not able to get those sets back then so I actually paid 20-25 US$ for the Green and the Black dragon each (though right after I received these dragons I was able to find their respective sets as well :P) so the price I paid for the dragon was a lot in my eyes.
More is expected from Ninjago dragons. I had ordered 5 of the first red wave Lightning dragon sets, and the dragons in them got sold out immediately for the price of the sets :P crazy right.
Still waiting to get a good price on the Fire Temple.
De gustibus non disputandum est.. I prefer the fantasy genre as defined by Tolkien and all the others that were inspired by him, where wizards have staves and not wands, where elves are pointy-eared human-like beings and not imps. It's the same with Vampires and the like. LeStat, even True Blood's vampires.. these are "canonical" vampires, as in Bram Stoker and Anne Rice's novels. Twilight's vampires are in another league. There may be those who prefer the former and those who prefer the latter (or both!).. Let's settle it with an epic rap battle!! :D Much will depend on how well The Hobbit fares.. Even though the story is much more deep, the book reads as if aimed to a younger audience than LotR.
So...I would expect LotR to do better with AFOLs (including the aftermarket). HP and PotC were popular with adults and kids, so I definitely expect those to do well down the road. Finally, Cars, TS and PoP may do just okay down the road with future AFOLS (esp. Cars and TS). TS is a trilogy classic and will do better...PoP is basically an unknown and will likely do poorly (except by niche buyers). Personally, I liked many of the TS and PoP sets, but Cars is just too "kiddish" for my tastes.
That is probably the reason that Tolkien's works are considered by some to be the greatest fiction works of the 20th century, while Rawlings works are juvenile fiction.
Don't get me wrong, they each have their place, but I completely get the point made above about a "realistic version" of fantasy.
So I will watch LotR, but I wouldn't go gung-ho on it right out of the gates.