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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 183
    Guess I will wait to see if it comes back next Christmas!


    KungFuKenny
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 893
    I just checked and the Nutcracker BH is still available on the Europe [email protected] site.  
  • PDelahantyPDelahanty Northern CaliforniaMember Posts: 109
    I could list it at $1,000,000...but that doesn't make it worth that much. Has the nutcracker actually SOLD for $80.74?
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 183
    Your right. Most of the sold listings are in the $20 to $30 dollar range depending on whether shipping is included. I posted the $80 auction more as an illustration as to where I thought this was going if there is no re-release next Christmas.
    SumoLego
  • FuddruckusFuddruckus Member Posts: 37
    edited February 12
    Nutcracker back in stock in the United States at Lego.com "Backorders accepted, will ship by February 28, 2021." Limit 50.
    Christmas Wreath "Backorders accepted, will ship by July 16, 2021." Limit 2.
    KungFuKennyMarshallmarioAstrobricksCymbelinevanvonfull
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 183
         Thanks so much for the post. I really wanted that Nutcracker and I don’t think I would have noticed it without your help! This is such a great place!
    KungFuKennyFuddruckusCymbeline
  • anastasia666anastasia666 LiverpoolMember Posts: 15
    edited April 15
    I’m contemplating getting these (Disney Castle and Train) while we get double points. Just wondering if anyone has any idea when they might be retiring? You can’t buy them from Disney themselves now, which is what is making me think they might not be around for much longer. What do you all think? 

    Edited by YC
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,238
    @anastasia666 - I would think they are indeed getting close to going, if just for the lack of space on store shelves.
    KungFuKenny
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    Im guessing the Castle will be gone before the train as it is older. Then again if they are flagship sets they will be around as long as LEGO wants them to be. In short, if you want them, and you can get doublepoints, then I would say do it, otherwise roll the dice that you may find them for a bit cheaper at some point
    KungFuKennyYellowcastlegmonkey76
  • FireFox31FireFox31 NH, USAMember Posts: 127
    It seems that 2020 messed with my predicted set retirement dates.  I'm guessing that production capacity was down so retirement dates will be delayed, allowing TLG to sell the same number of sets as if conditions were normal.  Does this seem right?
    I noticed this with #21318 Tree House.  I expected it to retire 11/2020 and watched as it left Amazon and went out of stock at local stores.  Yet it was still occasionally for sale on shop.lego.com.  When I got the "in stock" notification early 4/2021, I bought it with no GWP or double points, assuming this would be its last availability.  Nope, it was still available during the mid 4/2021 double points.
    I don't want to make this same mistake for #21323 Piano and #21322 Barracuda Bay.  Have the rules changed for retirement dates thanks to 2020?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,389
    Considering LEGO was up 37% in 2020, who knows what rules apply and what is retired.
    Yellowcastle560HeliportAstrobricksiwybsMarshallmarioFollowsCloselygmonkey76
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,238
    We’re all currently operating under the McRib Principle: If you can’t bear to miss it, get it now.
    SumoLegogmonkey76pxchrisPitfall69
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,389
    We’re all currently operating under the McRib Principle: If you can’t bear to miss it, get it now.
    I read that as LEGO was making a McRib.  

    Unrelated thought,  I always desire a Shamrock Shake until I get a Shamrock Shake.  Then I never want to have another one ever again.  
    560HeliportYellowcastleBumblepantsFollowsCloselykarritgmonkey76pxchris
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 1,177
    SumoLego said:
    We’re all currently operating under the McRib Principle: If you can’t bear to miss it, get it now.
    I read that as LEGO was making a McRib.  

    Unrelated thought,  I always desire a Shamrock Shake until I get a Shamrock Shake.  Then I never want to have another one ever again.  

    I feel like both the McRib and the Shamrock Shake fall into a special category of fast food.  They are terrible, and most of the time they at least make you a little queasy when you think about them... but every now and again you get a craving, and you just have to have it.  Almost the whole menu at Taco Bell falls into this category.  Luckily in the case of the former two items, since they are limited anyway most of the time when the craving hits you can't actually get them anyway, so you don't have to live with the shame the morning after you give in.
    gmonkey76
  • anastasia666anastasia666 LiverpoolMember Posts: 15
    We’re all currently operating under the McRib Principle: If you can’t bear to miss it, get it now.
    Haha. It’s a hard decision for me from a financial perspective. Plus I don’t know where the hell I would hide them! But if I miss out on the train in particular, I will be gutted. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,934
    The only rules of lego retirement are that sets retire when they run out. Unless lego decides to make more. 
    SumoLegoMarshallmario560HeliportAstrobricksYellowcastlegmonkey76pxchrisdatsunrobbie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,389
    Fizyx said:
    ...you just have to have it...
    You can put Pizza Hut Pan Pizza and Little Caesar's in that category.  One can eat enough to remember why one doesn't want to eat it.
    YellowcastleFizyx
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,389
    CCC said:
    The only rules of lego retirement are that sets retire when they run out. Unless lego decides to make more. 
    Except for the Exo-Suit.  LEGO promised to retire it, threatened retirement, and then really, really retired it.  I'm still convinced there is a warehouse full of them...
    BumblepantsYellowcastlegmonkey76prevere
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 893
    And yet, it's still cheap. Surprising lack of appreciation. 
    SumoLegoAstrobricksPitfall69
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 4,720
    CCC said:
    The only rules of lego retirement are that sets retire when they run out. Unless lego decides to make more. 
    Or they rerelease it under a new, completely random set number.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,238
    ....causing thousands of completionist voices to cry out in pain before being suddenly silenced.
    Fizyx560Heliportgmonkey76
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    SumoLego said:
    CCC said:
    The only rules of lego retirement are that sets retire when they run out. Unless lego decides to make more. 
    Except for the Exo-Suit.  LEGO promised to retire it, threatened retirement, and then really, really retired it.  I'm still convinced there is a warehouse full of them...

    And yet, it's still cheap. Surprising lack of appreciation. 

    Yeah, because most people likely do not want the set, they want the Green space suits...
    SumoLego
  • anastasia666anastasia666 LiverpoolMember Posts: 15
    If anyone cares, I got the Disney train & station. I’m still contemplating the castle so expect an update on Monday saying I’ve bought it!!! 🤣
    YellowcastleCymbeline560HeliportSumoLegoAstrobricksBumblepantsMarshallmariopanchox1
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,934
    SumoLego said:
    CCC said:
    The only rules of lego retirement are that sets retire when they run out. Unless lego decides to make more. 
    Except for the Exo-Suit.  LEGO promised to retire it, threatened retirement, and then really, really retired it.  I'm still convinced there is a warehouse full of them...
    Even that retired when stocks were sold out. It just had multiple announcements about decommissioning. 
    SumoLego
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    I have an unopened copy of the Brickstructures/Coaster Dynamix Coaster Factory set designed by Adam Reed Tucker.  I know it isn’t an official Lego set but it does use actual Lego.  It shows set number 110171-A on the front and was limited to 1000 sets.  I can’t find any info on it that isn’t 6 years old.  

    I have been a little out of the collecting world for the past few years and starting to try and get my collection organized and was just curious if anyone knew anything about it.

    Thanks 
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    So, reading through some of the old articles it looks like it isn’t actual Lego just designed to work with Lego.  
  • BooTheMightyHamsterBooTheMightyHamster Northern edge of London, just before the dragons...Member Posts: 1,408
    @brclark82

    Yep, I've got a couple of those stashed away, too.  I remember posting about it at the time.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    SumoLego said:
    CCC said:
    The only rules of lego retirement are that sets retire when they run out. Unless lego decides to make more. 
    Except for the Exo-Suit.  LEGO promised to retire it, threatened retirement, and then really, really retired it.  I'm still convinced there is a warehouse full of them...

    And yet, it's still cheap. Surprising lack of appreciation. 

    Yeah, because most people likely do not want the set, they want the Green space suits...
    Leftover Exo-suits buried at some random location, like the Atari ET games. With one green minifig hand sticking up out of the ground. 
    KungFuKenny560HeliportpxchrisSumoLegogmonkey76Pitfall69Yellowcastle
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 143
    This thread is very quiet these days. 
    It's nearly 10 years old now!  Are there far fewer resellers these days or are people just playing their cards close to their chest?  There have been just 14 pages of posts in the last 2.5 years.  This thread used to get dozens of posts every day.  I had a look and the posts from 2012 occupy over 150 pages!
    BumblepantsSumoLegoRonyarMarshallmarioshikadi
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    I think this is fairly on par with years past. More often than naught sets do not retire (or a least run out of stock) until the end of the year, so the thread typically grows quiet, or is going 'off thread' and talking about various things. I think the other part to this is with ease of Covid restrictions, people are likely also traveling more and commenting less, as really most threads seem to be slow these days (with the exception of the flak from the Disney Slave1 name change on the latest box.
    Yellowcastlegmonkey76
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 143
    I agree that there used to be more activity at year end due to that being the main time for retirements.  However as I said this thread has been going for nearly 10 years.  The thread has 677 pages.  The last 2.5 years occupy just 14 of those so clearly people are not posting as much anymore.  LFT doesn't post anymore so that probably accounts for a 50% drop right there!
    SumoLegoKungFuKenny
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,238
    Or, everything that retires is doing well in the secondary market so there’s not much skill needed anymore?
    madforLEGOAstrobricksSumoLegoKungFuKennygmonkey76
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    1x1 said:
    I agree that there used to be more activity at year end due to that being the main time for retirements.  However as I said this thread has been going for nearly 10 years.  The thread has 677 pages.  The last 2.5 years occupy just 14 of those so clearly people are not posting as much anymore.  LFT doesn't post anymore so that probably accounts for a 50% drop right there!

    While traffic may be down overall, I recall many years where this thread was vacant for months (dropping down several pages on the recent discussions section) because of summer, and had little to do with lack of LFT or anyone else. Just not a lot to discuss. Granted with Covid last year, and lack of sets available due to huge demand there just have not been much to discuss. While reselling talk has gone down, I would argue it has been trending that way a while now. However I would estimate that once we get to the F season and people are back indoors, and the end of the year approaches, the activity will increase, like most previous years.
    KungFuKennygmonkey76
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 4,720
    It’s not like anyone had any inside information or really knew anything anyway :-/
    560HeliportSumoLegoRonyarMarshallmarioBumblepantsKungFuKennyFollowsCloselygmonkey76Yellowcastle
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,389
    It’s not like anyone had any inside information or really knew anything anyway :-/
    Or has any inside information, either...
    KungFuKennyAstrobricks
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,238
    edited June 29
    Or has any ether information insight.
    SumoLego
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    All Disney had to do is drop "Slave I" and the 20th Anniversary edition shoots up 31% on Ebay. 
    Bumblepantsgmonkey76KungFuKennySwitchfoot55madforLEGOReesesPieces
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,075
    edited June 30
    Pitfall69 said:
    All Disney had to do is drop "Slave I" and the 20th Anniversary edition shoots up 31% on Ebay. 
    Gonna have to list my UCS Slave 1 soon then and take advantage of the panicked HowDareTheys
    gmonkey76560HeliportKungFuKennybpk2300madforLEGOReesesPiecesPitfall69flord
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,389
    Gonna have to list my UCS Slave 1 soon then and take advantage of the panicked HowDareTheys
    Maybe I can trade them for some banned Dr. Seuss books.
    sipussSwitchfoot55BumblepantsmadforLEGOgmonkey76Pitfall69Ronyar
  • lkliment2lkliment2 ChicagoMember Posts: 186
    Any thoughts on #75257?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    I stay away from most Star Wars LEGO, especially since Im sure they will do another Falcon almost immediately after this latest retires.. The Falcon is a flagship vehicle for SW and LEGO, they would be mad to allow it to go away and stay away for any length of time.
    Bumblepantsbricktuary
  • PDelahantyPDelahanty Northern CaliforniaMember Posts: 109
    I stay away from most Star Wars LEGO, especially since Im sure they will do another Falcon almost immediately after this latest retires.. The Falcon is a flagship vehicle for SW and LEGO, they would be mad to allow it to go away and stay away for any length of time.
    Yeah. After this Falcon retires, you'll probably get a new one within a year.  Two at the absolute maximum.
    SumoLegogmonkey76
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    I only buy falcons/star wars if I can get them at 50% off as they release so many of them
    bpk2300
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,036
    The Boolio figure might have some appreciation considering it seems to be exclusive to #75257.
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 4,720
    The Boolio figure might have some appreciation considering it seems to be exclusive to #75257.
    Looks like it’s already in the $20-30 range.
    ReesesPieces
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 893
    1989 Batmobile is now "Temporarily out of stock" at [email protected] (in the UK at least) - is it likely to be going EOL soon?
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,238
    ^ One would expect it to be gone but everything is currently hard to follow.  Gingerbread is back.  Moniker Kids are discounted in stores.  The Dorito Tie Fighter is still going strong.

    Harry Potter Great Hall now gone too.
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 2,691
    ^ One would expect it to be gone but everything is currently hard to follow.  Gingerbread is back.  Moniker Kids are discounted in stores.  The Dorito Tie Fighter is still going strong.

    Harry Potter Great Hall now gone too.
    Monkie Kids have not been discounted at the Mall of America store. I checked yesterday, because I still need #80025 Sandy's Power Loader Mech.
  • jnscoelhojnscoelho PortugalMember Posts: 666
    1989 Batmobile is now "Temporarily out of stock" at [email protected] (in the UK at least) - is it likely to be going EOL soon?
    Probably a surge of buyers that want to get the sailing ship.
    It will be back soon, I think.
    Yellowcastle
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 1,037
    1989 Batmobile is now "Temporarily out of stock" at [email protected] (in the UK at least) - is it likely to be going EOL soon?
    It is probably EOL at the end of the year. There are a couple others on that list that are also temporarily out of stock in the US. I expect those to get more stock before being gone for good, but it's a gamble at this point.
    SumoLegogmonkey76
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