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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    For what its worth, Some notables at the LEGO's US site show as 'Sold out' (not temp out of stock):
    #21315 Popup book
    #10260 Downtown Diner
    #10252 VW Beetle
    #10263 Winter Village Fire Station
    #31078 Creator Tree House treasures
    #75981 Potter advent
    #75159 Death Star
    #76118 Mr Freeze Batcycle Battle
    #75894 Mini Cooper Speed Champions set
    Not sure if they are really gone for good, but interesting that they are not showing as temp out of stock like other sets.
    KungFuKennygmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,237
    madforLEGO said:
    ...LEGO's US site show as 'Sold out' (not temp out of stock)..

    #75159 Death Star

    Ha!  Death Star.  Gotta love the folks that run the Shop and Home Site.  Trying to keep us on our toes.
    BumblepantsmadforLEGOKungFuKennygmonkey76Lobot
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,130
    edited November 2020
    madforLEGO said:
    For what its worth, Some notables at the LEGO's US site show as 'Sold out' (not temp out of stock):
    #21315 Popup book
    #10260 Downtown Diner
    #10252 VW Beetle
    #10263 Winter Village Fire Station
    #31078 Creator Tree House treasures
    #75981 Potter advent
    #75159 Death Star
    #76118 Mr Freeze Batcycle Battle
    #75894 Mini Cooper Speed Champions set
    Not sure if they are really gone for good, but interesting that they are not showing as temp out of stock like other sets.
    Do you think some of these are being held for their black friday 20% off deals?  I believe that is what they did with some of the sets couple years ago.
    KungFuKennyFollowsClosely
  • PapaBearPapaBear Member Posts: 665
    It's usually one or two sets that might come back from being "sold out", not the whole bunch.  I think last year they "found" some stock of the Parisian Restaurant and one year before that they found some of the Old Fishing Store.  It could be they just finished a run production of the set or that they freed up so much space from the sales that they found some they had misplaced.

    I would hope for the Winter Village Fire Station if you don't have one already.  That one is a for sure winner.
    madforLEGO
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,431
    They clearly set some of their big door busters aside for the physical stores and for S@H. I’m a little surprised they don’t show as Temporarily Out of Stock though.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    #10220 VW Camper Van is Sold out now at LEGO S@H and apparently other places.
    Bumblepants
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    madforLEGO said:
    #10220 VW Camper Van is Sold out now at LEGO S@H and apparently other places.
    Good. Now stay that way.
    FizyxSumoLegoKungFuKennymadforLEGOgmonkey76
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    Fizyx said:
    Bumblepants said:
    madforLEGO said:
    #10220 VW Camper Van is Sold out now at LEGO S@H and apparently other places.
    Good. Now stay that way.

    I can't wait for the release mid-year next year of set number 10238 VW Camper Van (identical to #10220 in every way, except now with TEAL brick separator!) and it's continued existence among LEGO offerings for the NEXT 10 years!


    You forgot one other thing that won't be identical: the price. $169.99 at minimum.
    FizyxpreveremadforLEGOstevemackMinifigInSpacegmonkey76
  • LegoSonicBoyLegoSonicBoy Member Posts: 47
    Bumblepants said:
    Fizyx said:
    Bumblepants said:
    madforLEGO said:
    #10220 VW Camper Van is Sold out now at LEGO S@H and apparently other places.
    Good. Now stay that way.

    I can't wait for the release mid-year next year of set number 10238 VW Camper Van (identical to #10220 in every way, except now with TEAL brick separator!) and it's continued existence among LEGO offerings for the NEXT 10 years!


    You forgot one other thing that won't be identical: the price. $169.99 at minimum.
    But also the 18+ box design.
    MinifigInSpaceSumoLegogmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,237
    LegoSonicBoy said:
    But also the 18+ box design.
    Add some random Star Wars box explosions - that'll push it to $199.99...
    prevereLegoSonicBoygmonkey76
  • lkliment2lkliment2 Member Posts: 198
    What are people’s thoughts on #75159?
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,431
    KungFuKenny said:
    lkliment2 said:
    What are people’s thoughts on #75159?
    It is a bit over priced and has a fatal design flaw that allows a single well placed shot to destroy the entire station ... 🙂
    As far as retirement goes, it is hard to say... it is sold out on S@H but it’s predecessor lasted for years and years.  I would be surprised if it retires without a replacement.
    All rumors point to it retiring this year. Could a new one come out in 2021? Sure, but the more recent pattern for fall UCS/MBS has been Large Ship (MF), Playset (Cloud City), Large Ship (ISD), Playset (Cantina). I expect another >$200 ship in fall 2021. This might be the first time in a long while that they went more than a year without a Death Star on the market.
  • lkliment2lkliment2 Member Posts: 198
    In terms of price appreciation, where would you say it stands?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,376
    edited December 2020
    lkliment2 said:
    In terms of price appreciation, where would you say it stands?
    You would be way better off buying some stocks in the travel industry. I lost a lot of $$ in the predecessor of this set, and I suspect history will repeat itself.
    FizyxCCCKungFuKennygmonkey76Oubirdryderfan
  • lkliment2lkliment2 Member Posts: 198
    FollowsClosely said:
    lkliment2 said:
    In terms of price appreciation, where would you say it stands?
    You would be way better off buying some stocks in the travel industry. I lost a lot of $$ in the predecessor of this set, and I suspect history will repeat itself.
    You really think it will do that poorly? I did not plan on buying it either way – it's a bit pricey to start. But, I do feel it has some potential, assuming they don't release a revised version in the coming months. I think the number of technically exclusive figs is enough to hold at least a reasonable return. I understand the concern regarding it's precedent, though.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Not worth it; plenty of other smaller sets where you'll get more growth per £ or $
    KungFuKenny
  • PapaBearPapaBear Member Posts: 665
    It is already going for $200 over MSRP which is decent.  Between it and 10188 there are 300 in inventory on bricklink.  The real gamble is if they will replace it with another Death Star or not.  If that ever happens, it immediately matches the new price.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited December 2020
    I dont think it gets re-released. We'll get something of a replacement in a few years, but this design is now kind of outdated. I too had to sell some 10188s at cost, and don't have any 75159.  

    Short-term win, but as soon as we get a new Death Star dollhouse, it stagnates.

    If we're all wrong, and for some reason we dont get a replacement, wow, it will kill.

  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    Stocks of it on BL are interesting. There is 1 in GBP (0 sold in 6 months). 13 in USD (12 sold in 6 months).  Yet 58 in Euro (31 sold in 6 months).

    Of course, people may be holding stocks back. One issue with that set is it is big to ship, and difficult / expensive for international. So maybe there is opportunity in UK/USA.

    If you can get one and decide to quick flip it may be worth it. But I imagine there will be a replacement one or something similar longer term.
    MinifigInSpace
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    #10268 Vestas Wind Turbine is now listed as 'Sold out'
    BumblepantsPapaBearSumoLegogmonkey76
  • flordflord Member Posts: 797
    Anybody know why 79756 Ninjago Dojo Showdown is commanding such high prices in the secondary market? The 2 (exclusive?) figures Karlof and Griffin Turner don’t seem to be particularly valuable. There’s otherwise nothing really special about it. I don’t get it.
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,555
    flord said:
    Anybody know why 79756 Ninjago Dojo Showdown is commanding such high prices in the secondary market? The 2 (exclusive?) figures Karlof and Griffin Turner don’t seem to be particularly valuable. There’s otherwise nothing really special about it. I don’t get it.
    I think you mean #70756.
  • flordflord Member Posts: 797
    Yes I do mean #70756. My fingers happen to be big dumb sausages.
    AstrobricksGothamConstructionCogmonkey76
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Member Posts: 2,368
    flord said:
    Anybody know why 79756 Ninjago Dojo Showdown is commanding such high prices in the secondary market? The 2 (exclusive?) figures Karlof and Griffin Turner don’t seem to be particularly valuable. There’s otherwise nothing really special about it. I don’t get it.
    Season 4 is a fun season and seems to be much loved by Ninjago fans.  It seems like many folks want to collect all of the contestants (which will be even easier with the upcoming #71735 having 4 or 5 new exclusive minifigs included).  I ended up just getting Karlof and Griffin separately a few years ago... 
    ReesesPiecesTkattAanchirLyichir
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    #10256 Taj Mahal is listed as 'Sold out'
    SumoLegogmonkey76
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    madforLEGO said:
    #10256 Taj Mahal is listed as 'Sold out'

    Has been 2-3 times in the UK this year
    PapaBear
  • bricktuarybricktuary Member Posts: 987
    So is that #10260 DD gone forever do we think? 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,835
    bricktuary said:
    So is that #10260 DD gone forever do we think? 

    It appears so
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    The wooden minifigures are retiring.
  • ShropshireShropshire Member Posts: 658
    I still remain confused over the wooden minifigure, I am one of those who likes it and got mine from the pop-up store however it was launched as limited edition but they never explained what that meant in terms of how limited/numbers etc, yet it has been available for sale for quite some time until now so clearly had enough of them.. and the words "limited" were removed from the description a while back so it was potentially misleading at launch.
  • garethjedwardsgarethjedwards Member Posts: 34
    I wonder if this will be the end of the theme or they are removing this to launch the next product in the series
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    Wasn't it limited to VIPs only when it first came to the online store?
  • ShropshireShropshire Member Posts: 658
    here's an extract from their launch / invitation.

    Be the first to purchase this limited edition collectible for £109.99 and recieve an exclusive LEGO Orignals poster that is available at the event only, when you purchase the product on the day.
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,130
    I'm sure the wooden minifigure was "limited" in the numbers produced compared to Lego's typical products but I also believe there wasn't a big demand for them.  As neat as it is, it really isn't something most Lego fans would be interested in, especially for the price.  
    bpk2300Astrobricks560HeliportLyichirKungFuKennygmonkey76
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,431
    I might have been interested in the wood figure for like $50. $100 was high enough to make me forget they even existed until this discussion.
    lkliment2vanvonfullSumoLegoBumblepantspxchrisgmonkey76datsunrobbie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,237
    ^ I feel that way about sneakers and shoes.
    560Heliport
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 1,165
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I feel that way about sneakers and shoes.
    Brings back fond memories of my Mom buying my sneakers and shoes at the grocery store. :)
    SumoLego
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,555
    1265 said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I feel that way about sneakers and shoes.
    Brings back fond memories of my Mom buying my sneakers and shoes at the grocery store. :)
    But at least when they wore out, you could eat them ;-)
    SumoLego1265BumblepantsAanchir
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,237
    Astrobricks said:
    But at least when they wore out, you could eat them ;-)

    Astrobricks
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    If it had been all wooden, I might have caved. 
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 1,165
    edited December 2020
    Astrobricks said:
    1265 said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I feel that way about sneakers and shoes.
    Brings back fond memories of my Mom buying my sneakers and shoes at the grocery store. :)
    But at least when they wore out, you could eat them ;-)
    Yes.....only with two slices from the brick of govt cheese.
    AstrobricksFizyx
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Member Posts: 400
    Hope this is the right thread? 
     1.) What are the chances of #40448 Convertible GWP coming back? It was available for like 3 days instead of a month so that seems it was really popular and a lot of people missed out .
    2.) What about #40425 Nutcracker Brickheadz? I’m not sure how long it was available, maybe only just before Christmas this year? I wish I hadn’t missed it. I hate to go to eBay for these two if there is a chance they might be back.
    Thanks!
  • karritkarrit Member Posts: 1,064
    I expect it's very likely the Nutcracker Brickheadz will return at some point.  The holiday ones seem to get a second round including through other sources like Target & Walmart at least online.  Since some of the more recent GWP's like the Rocket Ride have seemed to get offered a second time around  I'd say it's possible they do another run of the Convertible at some point.
    Fizyx
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Member Posts: 2,368
    I would bet that the Vintage Car is done but the nutcracker should come back (other Christmas Brickheadz have lasted a couple of seasons)
  • MugenPowerMugenPower Member Posts: 638
    Did the ghost Brickheadz ever come back for a second round?  If not, we might not be able to count on seasonal ones coming back the following year.
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Member Posts: 2,368
    MugenPower said:
    Did the ghost Brickheadz ever come back for a second round?  If not, we might not be able to count on seasonal ones coming back the following year.
    Nope, that ghost went quick and it seemed like they never did another production run.  I was thinking more of the Santa/Mrs. Clause and the reindeer/elves BHs that hung around for 2 Christmases... 
  • FizyxFizyx Member Posts: 1,363
    edited February 2021
    KungFuKenny said:
    MugenPower said:
    Did the ghost Brickheadz ever come back for a second round?  If not, we might not be able to count on seasonal ones coming back the following year.
    Nope, that ghost went quick and it seemed like they never did another production run.  I was thinking more of the Santa/Mrs. Clause and the reindeer/elves BHs that hung around for 2 Christmases... 

    Actually the ghost WAS back in stock for awhile after the initial sell out, but only well after Halloween, and by the time Halloween came back around I think it was sold out again.
    KungFuKenny
  • jnscoelhojnscoelho Member Posts: 704
    In Europe the Ghost was available for a while, a few months ago.
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