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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 597
    edited September 21
    Promobricks updated their EOL list with the following):

    • 75954 Hogwarts Great Hall (Old date: December 31, 2020 - New EOL date: July 31, 2021 )
    • 75943 Whomping Willow
      (Old date: December 31, 2020 - New EOL date: December 31, 2021 )
    • 75957 Knight Bus
      (Old date: December 31, 2020 - New EOL date: December 31, 2021 )

    Astrobricks560HeliportFizyxpreverePapaBear
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 597
    Sorry, bad hat-tip on my part. That update was on Stonewars, not Promobricks. I had tabs open from both and screwed up which I was looking at.
    Astrobricks560HeliportFizyxPapaBear
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    @Cymbeline Thanks for sharing. I will keep waiting...

    @KungFuKenny Thanks for sharing this. I ordered from Bricklink. Tracking Ive found to be a bit of a waste of money in the past, most packages turn up fine and the tracker systems are almost always very unhelpful.

    I ordered another set the other day from a store in Queensland (which is a state of Australia above me for those who dont know). They didnt tell me that my sets would have to come from the US, not sure why my countrymen are always obsessed with outsourcing everything LOL.

    Anyway the tracking (which was free) is okay except each new destination is listed as unknown until the package reaches there. Ill use some examples that arent the actual ones but eg NY - unknown becomes NY- Los Angeles a few days later then its Los Angeles - unknown etc. My package could be on route to Australia right now or it could be meandering around Canada as it was a couple of days ago (not sure why it went to Ontario CA??)

    In regards to my Canadian order that hasnt turned up since June,  it was about $150 of actual lego ($130 set plus a few minfigs and parts, soon adds up doesnt it?) then $40 or so postage. Thats near $200 on a set that should only be $130. I like to leave my $200 for modular buildings...

    Oh well, we shall wait and see. Id also hate to file a claim against the seller who seemed alright and then the package turns up.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    autolycus said:
    I predict that the value of a set will be greatly diminished if it is shipped with a label on the box itself. It will hold value better after it is retired if it is in a nice clean box with no stickers or shipping labels, and as little damage as possible. 😂
    I find damaged boxes lead to slightly lower prices, but not significantly lower prices. There are always buyers that want to open the box and build the set.
    560Heliportgmonkey76
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 1,990
    @Brickchap Ontario is not just a province in Canada, but also a city in California, USA. I'd guess your package was in the city, which is east of Los Angeles.
    Astrobricks
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 550
    Or it's been thrown into Lake Ontario
    KungFuKenny560Heliport
  • pxchrispxchris Oregon, USAMember Posts: 954
    My set shipped as of this morning @autolycus, so I should know this week what the packaging is like. Like yourself I was going with the hope that it's simply shipped in the same outer LEGO box that gets shipped to stores, not the set box itself. But ultimately, having the box isn't the end-all, be-all for me (even though I do normally save boxes) so I'll be happy no matter, as long as the LEGO itself is in good shape.
    autolycus
  • The_RancorThe_Rancor Dorset, UKMember Posts: 1,324
    CCC said:
    I find damaged boxes lead to slightly lower prices, but not significantly lower prices. There are always buyers that want to open the box and build the set.
    I’m one of these people. I’ve dropped fairly large sums of money on retired sets before just to build them afresh. I wouldn’t go to the obscene levels of mega valuable though, we’re still talking less than £250
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,276
    Or it's been thrown into Lake Ontario
    There's an Ontario County in New York - that doesn't border Lake Ontario.  But, if it's in the lake, I'd be happy to try and fish it out.
    560Heliport
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    Sorry if this is taking over the thread but the weirdest thing happened. The tracking says that my package has been delivered to Jonesville VA (Im assuming thats Vancouver?) The tracking stops there.

    What should I do? My invoice notice has my correct address in AUSTRALIA on it yet it gets sent to this place Ive never even heard of? The Lego was supposed to come from a place in Queensland Australia.... The website was .au btw.

    Oh and it would be the US Ontario, although Ontario CA one would think would be Canada not California.
  • pxchrispxchris Oregon, USAMember Posts: 954
    pxchris said:
    My set shipped as of this morning @autolycus, so I should know this week what the packaging is like. Like yourself I was going with the hope that it's simply shipped in the same outer LEGO box that gets shipped to stores, not the set box itself. But ultimately, having the box isn't the end-all, be-all for me (even though I do normally save boxes) so I'll be happy no matter, as long as the LEGO itself is in good shape.
    Received my set today @autolycus, it was packaged in an outer box that wasn't LEGO branded then also within an Amazon box. So the set box itself came in pristine condition! 
    autolycus
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 597
    edited September 22
    Brickchap said:
    Sorry if this is taking over the thread but the weirdest thing happened. The tracking says that my package has been delivered to Jonesville VA (Im assuming thats Vancouver?) The tracking stops there.

    What should I do? My invoice notice has my correct address in AUSTRALIA on it yet it gets sent to this place Ive never even heard of? The Lego was supposed to come from a place in Queensland Australia.... The website was .au btw.

    Oh and it would be the US Ontario, although Ontario CA one would think would be Canada not California.
    Jonesville, VA is probably a town in Virginia, USA. (assuming we're talking about somewhere in North America) Google maps would suggest it's a very small town in the Appalachian Mountains in the south-west corner of the state, but that will not mean much to you in Australia.
    Brickchap
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,487
    Brickchap said:
    Sorry if this is taking over the thread but the weirdest thing happened. The tracking says that my package has been delivered to Jonesville VA (Im assuming thats Vancouver?) The tracking stops there.

    What should I do? My invoice notice has my correct address in AUSTRALIA on it yet it gets sent to this place Ive never even heard of? The Lego was supposed to come from a place in Queensland Australia.... The website was .au btw.

    Oh and it would be the US Ontario, although Ontario CA one would think would be Canada not California.
    CA is California, US. VA is Virginia US.
    https://abbreviations.yourdictionary.com/articles/state-abbrev.html
    Brickchap
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Deep in the Heart of TexasMember Posts: 1,438
    Brickchap said:
    Sorry if this is taking over the thread but the weirdest thing happened. The tracking says that my package has been delivered to Jonesville VA (Im assuming thats Vancouver?) The tracking stops there.

    What should I do? My invoice notice has my correct address in AUSTRALIA on it yet it gets sent to this place Ive never even heard of? The Lego was supposed to come from a place in Queensland Australia.... The website was .au btw.

    Oh and it would be the US Ontario, although Ontario CA one would think would be Canada not California.
    It’s time to file a claim...
    autolycus560Heliportgmonkey76BrickchapmadforLEGO
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    Does Australia have import tax / CAT to pay on items from the US too? Another problem with international drop shippers.
    BrickchapSumoLego
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    @KungFuKenny Are you serious? I dont say that rude or sarcastically I just dont want to go rushing into legal action.  Perhaps another mailing company will take it from there?

    I do know that some companies store stock in the US but the fact that this wasnt mentioned anywhere is odd and their website says shipping usually takes 5-10 days for AUS and 15 days for UK/US. My mail address doesnt have Australia specifically but it does have NSW and a NSW postcode plus there was no option that I saw to state which country the delivery would be to. I also thought since it was coming from Queensland surely it would be pretty bloody obvious that they were shipping to NSW Australia.

    I wont state my town on here but to my knowledge there are no towns by that name in America. If the package went to Ireland Id understand but U.S?

    Maybe the US government stole it like they did masks bound for Germany. Trump needs Lego to build during lockdown LOL.

    @CCC Im not sure, probably. Im still wondering as to why on earth these banana bending* fools had to store their stock in Yankland. 

    *Only Aussies will get that one.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    Brickchap said:
     

    @CCC Im not sure, probably. Im still wondering as to why on earth these banana bending* fools had to store their stock in Yankland. 

    *Only Aussies will get that one.
    I get it, but I have friends that are Queenslanders.
    Brickchap
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    @CCC Hahaha.
    SumoLego
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 597
    It’s been reported several places that #21317 Steamboat Willie will be retiring this year. That matches the usual timeline for Ideas sets. But there’s an interesting development in the US [email protected] site. The set had been in stock until today. Now it shows backorder for delivery by January 3, 2021. That’s over 3 months from now. So far I’ve only ever seen backorder with 60 days or some specific date that was within 60 days. With the report that several Harry Potter sets got an extra production run, and with this news, it looks to me like they’re running extra batches of things to make sure people have a chance to get them one more time.
    560HeliportKungFuKennygmonkey76PapaBear
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,276
    SumoLego said:
    - Goes back to hoarding straight roadplates-
    I hoarded six more packets of straight roadplates yesterday.

    Unnnnnnnnnnnnnnlimited roadplates!!!!!!!!
    560Heliportgmonkey76
  • AMuller396AMuller396 Member Posts: 25
    Where do you get these from?  
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,276
    Where do you get these from?  
    These I happened to get from my local LEGO Store.  I plan on pilfering the ones in Buffalo in October...
    Fizyxgmonkey76
  • bpk2300bpk2300 Florida Member Posts: 160
    Steamboat Willie #21317 is now showing Sold Out on US [email protected] I'm glad I back-ordered mine last week when @autolycus gave me the heads up, above. 
    autolycusFizyx
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 597
    bpk2300 said:
    Steamboat Willie #21317 is now showing Sold Out on US [email protected] I'm glad I back-ordered mine last week when @autolycus gave me the heads up, above. 
    Glad I helped someone out! It's a set I had originally put in my "must buy" category, but had shifted to "Buy it with a good Black Friday discount" after I got the Disney Train and Station last year for a great discount. The CMF series 2 pushed it further into that category. I may go by my local store this weekend to see if they still have it in stock and with the AFOL shopping day discount. Otherwise I will be ok if I miss out.

    I got my Downtown Diner set from Amazon just now. Thanks for the head's up to check Amazon, @pxchris! Frustration Free Packaging was the same for me: regular Amazon shipping box on the outside. Inside it was a 2nd generic brown box with a small label showing the set name. Retail box was inside that. No damage at all to the retail box. Yay!
    bpk2300pxchris
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    Apparently Winter Village Fire Station is retiring this year. I need two of it (plus more) to build a modular fire station. I got scammed trying to get two of them for a good price. Should I buy one for $150 direct from Lego and then just bricklink the rest? Or buy two for $300?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    Buy four. Use two, sell two later.
    Fizyx
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    ^Thats $600.... and from what I hear Lego as an investment is not worth it.
    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    If you need two, then you will have to buy two somehow. Bricklinking it will cost you more than buying direct.

    Lego as an investment is worth it, if you buy the right sets. I reckon this one will give OK returns. You won't be doubling or trebling your money in a year, but you won't be losing. Especially in a country like Australia, where importing a 1kg+ set from overseas can be expensive and the quantities in the country will be reasonably low. At the moment only 3 Aussies on BL have them.
    FizyxBrickchap
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 959
    CCC said:
    If you need two, then you will have to buy two somehow. Bricklinking it will cost you more than buying direct.

    Lego as an investment is worth it, if you buy the right sets. I reckon this one will give OK returns. You won't be doubling or trebling your money in a year, but you won't be losing. Especially in a country like Australia, where importing a 1kg+ set from overseas can be expensive and the quantities in the country will be reasonably low. At the moment only 3 Aussies on BL have them.

    I kind of view LEGO at this point in time almost like the bonds of toy investing.  You probably won't gain a lot at this point, unless you hit a wild jackpot.  But also, for the vast majority of sets, they are probably going to stay pretty flat or grow slowly in value over time (assuming they stay boxed and unopened.)  As investment vehicles, this makes most LEGO not great, it's true.  But if we then take that view and pivot it to the HOBBY view point... well, there's not a ton of hobbies where your original investment will likely maintain a decently significant percentage of its value, and has the potential to actual increase its value over a relatively short time frame of a couple of years.

    Also, totally support buying as a whole set from a retailer while the set is in production if at all possible.  Some things you may be able to get cheaper later (coughzurgcough), but especially for things like the Winter Village sets, it's unlikely that you will find it cheaper than RRP later or be able to get even close to RRP if you Bricklink out the parts.
    560HeliportKungFuKennySumoLegoMCNwakeboardAstrobricksmonstblitz
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,487
    ^ And at least temporarily, covid seems to have goosed the secondary market, especially for licensed and Ideas sets. 
    Fizyx560Heliport
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    @Fizyx Thanks for the advice.

    I already own one for my display but I was going to buy two for a modular fire station. The only reason I went for two was 1. the front facade of the MOC is basically just two of the garage part of the WV set and 2. The website selling them had them for a price which came to two fire stations for the price of one. But it was a scam.


    I get your point and agree, Bricklink orders soon add up!  I am still a little unsure whether to spend $300 (since Id still require parts) for a modular fire station or spend my $300 buying Pirates of Barracuda Bay (I have always wanted a proper Lego sailing ship). But my city also needs an old fashioned fire station.

    I am further unsure as I was trying to get the parts needed to do a modular version of the 2018 City Hospital but I only managed to get one before the rest sold out (I waited for a sale that never came.)

    Sorry to tell my life story but Im sure we all know that unless its a modular building or something one can rarely just walk in a lego store and be like yep Im buying that that and that, here's my card. (unless your super rich or dont have any living expenses LOL)
    Fizyxvanvonfull
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    Brickchap said:

    I get your point and agree, Bricklink orders soon add up!  I am still a little unsure whether to spend $300 (since Id still require parts) for a modular fire station or spend my $300 buying Pirates of Barracuda Bay (I have always wanted a proper Lego sailing ship). But my city also needs an old fashioned fire station.

    The simple answer is that it is a pointless question to ask others, as only you can answer it. Which is more important to you? Is your budget fixed? Can you borrow against future budget? Those are all questions to ask yourself that others cannot answer. 
  • HugeBlueBrickHugeBlueBrick At my PCMember Posts: 28
    Are you in a hurry? I got 2 Winter Village Railway Stations, at 33% off RRP, at a LEGO store, the first week of the New Year after they were released.
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    @CCC Well it is clearly a pointless question to ask you, which I didnt.

    Yes, it is ultimately decision I make myself but (until now) people have been most helpful with their advice.

    Is POBB or WV Fire station more likely to be completely unavailable in Australia by the end of this year? What is POBB like to own; is it worth paying $300 AU for?

    These are questions that can be answered by other people and are therefore worth asking of which answers will assist myself in making a decision.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    Brickchap said:

    Is POBB or WV Fire station more likely to be completely unavailable in Australia by the end of this year? What is POBB like to own; is it worth paying $300 AU for?

    5 written reviews including the official brickset one that goes into incredible detail, plus 12 video reviews.
    https://brickset.com/sets/21322-1/Pirates-of-Barracuda-Bay


  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 597
    Brickchap said:
    Is POBB or WV Fire station more likely to be completely unavailable in Australia by the end of this year? What is POBB like to own; is it worth paying $300 AU for? 
    WV Fire Station is expected to reach end of life this year. POBB is not.
    FizyxBrickchappharmjod
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,487
    what’s POBB?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,139
    Pirates of Barracuda Bay
    AstrobricksKungFuKenny
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    Is that like Mr Pobb?
    KungFuKennyBumblepants
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,487
    I thought it was Mr Pibb :)
    560HeliportKungFuKennymadforLEGOgmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,276
    I thought it was Mr Pibb :)
    Mr. Plopp?  Please tell me that's a thing.
    KungFuKennyBumblepants
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    SumoLego said:
    I thought it was Mr Pibb :)
    Mr. Plopp?  Please tell me that's a thing.

    Isn't that the 'tidy bowl' man?
    gmonkey76KungFuKenny
  • BrickchapBrickchap AustraliaMember Posts: 317
    @autolycus Thanks! Thats very helpful. Any idea when POBB will retire?

    I wonder if Lego would do a 'sequel' to POBB with either a bluecoats/redcoats fort or a ship. Like they had the Ecto 1 Ideas set and then released the Ghostbusters Firehouse set.


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,908
    Pobb just came out. It'll be out for 2-3 years easy. GB HQ was great, except Ecto1 didnt fit in the garage.
    KungFuKennyBrickchap
  • squiz18squiz18 UKMember Posts: 1
    What do we think about the potential value of Trex Rampage after it retires? I'm tempted to get it but not 100% yet. 
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,487
    I assume you’re talking about #75936. Given the size and quality of the set, I’d expect it to hold its value and gain some after retirement. But, as many here will advise, if you like it, get it and build it. 
    560Heliportsquiz18KungFuKenny
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 535
    Been noticing a lot of bulk star wars figures picking up value lately, prototype v2 boba fett is up from like $7-> $30, santa darth vader $4->20 and hondo from like $2->$10. The original boba fett from cloud city has gone up fron about $175 to $600 in the past year so unfortunately I doubt I'll ever get one of those.

    I'm going to start buying bulk figures that I dont have to make sure I've least notched one in the collection. Seems like anything that is limited to one set is a good candidate right now in star wars.

    The 332nd troops are great imo, I doubt well see another set with them and squad you unique soldiers hold value really well (212, Wolfpack, shock). 


    Not a big sequel fan but I think the knights of ren are a good spec, all are unique to one set and I doubt we will ever see them again. 

    The commander death trooper is hard to find and can only be found under $30 outside of the US. 


  • lkliment2lkliment2 ChicagoMember Posts: 157
    Jackad7 said:
    The original boba fett from cloud city has gone up fron about $175 to $600 in the past year so unfortunately I doubt I'll ever get one of those.


    I think $175 for that guy is an outlier. Personally have never seen a real one sell for that low. Again, that's just me. Love that figure though.
    SumoLego
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,869
    lkliment2 said:
    Jackad7 said:
    The original boba fett from cloud city has gone up fron about $175 to $600 in the past year so unfortunately I doubt I'll ever get one of those.


    I think $175 for that guy is an outlier. Personally have never seen a real one sell for that low. Again, that's just me. Love that figure though.

    A LOT of sets have risen in the secondary market this year and likely due to a lot of disposable income as not many people are likely taking vacations at this point. Like others have said, this probably may last until the vaccine becomes widely available and people start saving for trips again.
    KungFuKennySumoLegoJackad7
  • browny333browny333 USAMember Posts: 49
    stevemack said:
    Is downtown Diner actually going to retire?  #10255 is first surely?
    A list of LEGO sets retiring in 2020 includes LEGO Creator Expert 10260 Downtown Diner, the modular that captures a taste of 1950s America. ... Stone Wars has shared sets that are expected to retire before the end of the year, with the 2,480 piece model one of them
    so apparently it seems so
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