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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    milamber said:
    The Forma Carp has broadly doubled in price in 5 weeks, looking at sold prices on Ebay.
    That ties in with it going out of stock at LEGO. I bought a few for resale and it wasn't worth selling them on at the £15-20 profit after fees prices they were going for on ebay (even when they were still for sale on the LEGO website).

  • monstblitzmonstblitz Member Posts: 653
    autolycus said:
    CCC said:
    autolycus said:
    CCC said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

    :-)

    Wait, is that right?! I have one (thank you Amazon lighting deal and my lucky wife!!), but that'd be really early in the year for it to be gone already, right?

    No, it was a joke. I wouldn't be buying that one as an investment for a long time yet.

    It is rumored to be retiring this year, but I would personally be very surprised if it did. The Death Star, OTOH, might really.

    I've been very spoiled with May 4 and Black Friday sales helping me catch up on my wishlist backlog (from my dark ages) a little more ... cash efficiently.

    In addition to the Hogwarts Great Hall, there are some large sets I expect to retire in 2020, and had planned/hoped to get for a decent discount:

    1) Tantive IV (maybe "expect" is too strong, but it might, so I will be careful with this one. Will jump on any discount on May 4.)
    2) 20th Anniversary Slave I (don't need this one like some of the others, so I might jump on a good May 4 or Black Friday discount.)
    3) Roller Coaster
    4) Assembly Square
    5) Steamboat Willie
    6) Ideas Treehouse (will probably buy with any discount)
    7) Dinosaur Fossils
    8) Upside Down (will only buy if it's a really good Black Friday discount like one of the daily 40% off deals. If I miss out on it, I won't be upset)

    I'm definitely a little worried that the surge in buying paired with production slowdowns are going to mess some of this up because Lego may simply not have any left that it needs to clear out come December. A few of those I may just go on and buy if they're in stock at the next Double VIP promo or if there's a really interesting GWP.
    Right there with you on Tantive IV and Treehouse, although with Treehouse I'd buy that one at retail right now if I could.  Really kicking myself for not back ordering it during double VIP points. I'm sure it will come back in stock, or at least pretty sure, but it's one I'd like to be building right about now.
    SumoLegoautolycuspanchox1
  • PapaBearPapaBear Member Posts: 632
    edited April 2020
    I would say the most likely to go are Disney Castle, Vesta Turbine, and Death Star.  Then there's the wildcard where they don't retire anything and introduce 3 big sets this year anyways.  I wouldn't expect an HP to go for a few more years.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    PapaBear said:
    I would say the most likely to go are Disney Castle, Vesta Turbine, and Death Star.  Then there's the wildcard where they don't retire anything and introduce 3 big sets this year anyways.  I wouldn't expect an HP to go for a few more years.
    Is there a lot of talk about the Vesta Turbine retiring this year? I don’t feel like it has been out that long.  I’ve been out of this for a bit and getting back in again so just looking to catch up on the info.
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,441
    edited April 2020
    Vestas. Vesta is an asteroid.
    560HeliportSumoLegoBumblepantsKungFuKenny
  • Gibbo1959Gibbo1959 Member Posts: 539
    I thought Vespa was an Italian scooter. And Vesta was one of the original ready meals. 
    KungFuKenny560HeliportSumoLegogmonkey76Bumblepants
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Member Posts: 2,368
    edited April 2020
    SumoLego said:
    Vespa is a Druish Princess.
    Her action figure is set to retire this year.  Have you seen the aftermarket prices for Dark Helmet and Prince Valium?  You should definitely stock up while she is still available...
    SumoLegomadforLEGOgmonkey76AstrobricksBumblepantspxchrismonstblitz
  • PapaBearPapaBear Member Posts: 632
    The Vestas Turbine has been out for 18 months.  I haven't heard anything about it.  I just don't imagine it selling that well with only 800 pieces.  It looks a bit dated.  Super short build.
    SumoLegoBumblepantspharmjod
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    Red Buttons, Standing By...
    gmonkey76AstrobricksmadforLEGOdavetheoxygenmanBumblepantsKungFuKennymonstblitzPitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,761
    edited April 2020
    SumoLego said:
    Red Buttons, Standing By...

    Simply Red, standing by...
    BumblepantsSumoLegoGothamConstructionCoKungFuKennygmonkey76Pitfall69
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    Big Red, standing by...
    BumblepantsSumoLegoKungFuKennymadforLEGOgmonkey76
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,538
    Red Dead Redemption standing by...
    SumoLegoKungFuKennymadforLEGOPapaBeargmonkey76Pitfall69
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Member Posts: 2,368
    edited April 2020
    Helen Reddy standing by...
    BumblepantsGibbo1959madforLEGOgmonkey76Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    What reasoning would there be for the Death Star to go (other than to make way for another new version)? That and its predecessor has been in production 12 years. Why stop now?

    AstrobricksmadforLEGOpharmjodPitfall69
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    I doubt it'll 'retire' for any period of time.  It's 'THE' set for kids that want a playset.  It's not too difficult to build and easy to rub in other kids' faces.
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    SumoLego said:
    I doubt it'll 'retire' for any period of time.  It's 'THE' set for kids that want a playset.  It's not too difficult to build and easy to rub in other kids' faces.
    I dunno. Most kids would have a really hard time picking that set up, let alone carrying over to their friend and rubbing it in their friend's face. It would definitely break apart if they did that.
    SumoLego560HeliportKungFuKenny
  • klintonklinton Member Posts: 1,248
    autolycus said:
    SumoLego said:
    I doubt it'll 'retire' for any period of time.  It's 'THE' set for kids that want a playset.  It's not too difficult to build and easy to rub in other kids' faces.
    I dunno. Most kids would have a really hard time picking that set up, let alone carrying over to their friend and rubbing it in their friend's face. It would definitely break apart if they did that.
    Play dates, yo! Didn't you ever go play in a friend's rumpus room after school?
    SumoLegogmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    autolycus said:
    ...let alone carrying over to their friend...
    Oh, no no.  If you have a LEGO Death Star, people come to your house/residence to view it.  And marvel at it... and be super-impressed.
    560Heliportgmonkey76Pitfall69Brixfan02
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    SumoLego said:
    autolycus said:
    ...let alone carrying over to their friend...
    Oh, no no.  If you have a LEGO Death Star, people come to your house/residence to view it.  And marvel at it... and be super-impressed.
    My joke fell flat. I was imagining a kid literally rubbing the set against another kid's face. Lego on face violence, if you will.
    AstrobricksBumblepantsSumoLego
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,441
    autolycus said:
    SumoLego said:
    autolycus said:
    ...let alone carrying over to their friend...
    Oh, no no.  If you have a LEGO Death Star, people come to your house/residence to view it.  And marvel at it... and be super-impressed.
    My joke fell flat. I was imagining a kid literally rubbing the set against another kid's face. Lego on face violence, if you will.
    People come to your domicile to rub their faces on your Death Star. 
    560HeliportautolycusSumoLegoKungFuKenny
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Member Posts: 3,731
    ^Six. You need six. Three of #10188, and three of #75159. :-)
    SumoLegoTkattmadforLEGOgmonkey76AstrobricksdavetheoxygenmanPitfall69Mr_Cross
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    Tkatt said:
    ...one for guests to rub their face on...
    I'd consider kragleing one for the boasting and rubbing in people's faces.  Someone gives you a Heisman-style stiffarm, you don't want to Ned Leeds it all over the floor...
    560HeliportAstrobricksdavetheoxygenman
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    edited April 2020
    autolycus said:
    My joke fell flat.
    You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.
    autolycus560Heliportgmonkey76Onebricktoomanydavetheoxygenmanbpk2300thenos
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    SumoLego said:
    autolycus said:
    My joke fell flat.
    You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.
    I'll make it up in volume!
    560HeliportSumoLegogmonkey76OnebricktoomanyOubird
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    By design?
    davetheoxygenmanPitfall69
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,441
    autolycus said:
    SumoLego said:
    autolycus said:
    My joke fell flat.
    You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.
    I'll make it up in volume!
    I believe that was his point :)
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    Astrobricks said:
    autolycus said:
    SumoLego said:
    autolycus said:
    My joke fell flat.
    You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.
    I'll make it up in volume!
    I believe that was his point :)
    Well, yeah, of course it was his point. But my simple response got me 3 likes closer... vol...ume... baby. 🤣
    560HeliportAstrobricksflightriskSumoLego
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    We just need LFT back and the thread will be back up to speed!
    BumblepantsRonyar
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    He's probably standing by.
    BumblepantsSumoLegomadforLEGOGothamConstructionCodavetheoxygenman
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    I saw a couple references elsewhere to a new list of sets that are officially retiring, but I can’t seem to find the list anywhere. Anybody got a lead on it? Any large sets or unexpected sets on the list?
  • bpk2300bpk2300 Member Posts: 246
    Cannot remember if it's been talked about here or not, but any rumors of the Hogwarts Castle #71043-1 retiring? I've held off on this set because of the price, but it's been out-of-stock for a while now and I'm getting worried. 
  • karmajaykarmajay Member Posts: 50
    Most stuff is out of stock right now due to manufacturing slow down all over he world.
    Astrobricks
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,441
    karmajay said:
    Most stuff is out of stock right now due to manufacturing slow down all over he world.
    And someone said above that the Mexico factory is closed. 
    SumoLegogmonkey76PapaBear
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb Member Posts: 451
    bpk2300 said:
    Cannot remember if it's been talked about here or not, but any rumors of the Hogwarts Castle #71043-1 retiring? I've held off on this set because of the price, but it's been out-of-stock for a while now and I'm getting worried. 

    To me it's a set with a long shelf life. Considering the size of the set and the popularity of the franchise. To my knowledge wave 1 of Harry Potter sets are not retiring yet. Maybe the lack of play value considering it is just a model really could go against it in terms of sales.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    It's safe to say the Castle will around for awhile.  It's a super-premium set for a theme that has a fair number of adults that follow the franchise.

    Much like the UCS MF and the Tower Bridge.
    bpk2300KungFuKennygmonkey76
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Member Posts: 5,441
    #71043 seems like it is a good candidate for rebranding as 18+, except I’m not sure if TLG wants to mix that marketing with their licensed themes.
  • bpk2300bpk2300 Member Posts: 246
    edited May 2020
    ^^ I think my worry is coming from me assuming that the upcoming (?) D2C Diagon Alley set could possibly supplant the Castle. 
  • masterX244masterX244 Member Posts: 532
    Astrobricks said:
    #71043 seems like it is a good candidate for rebranding as 18+, except I’m not sure if TLG wants to mix that marketing with their licensed themes.

    Its already mixed. #75276 and companions
    Astrobricks
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited May 2020
    I will say the lack of inventory on current sets is driving up pricing on ebay and elsewhere, and is offering a rare crystal ball effect into aftermarket potential. Just look at Stranger Things. Going for double, Gingerbread House as well.
    KungFuKennyKoolbrix2018
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I'm sure it's also great market research for LEGO to know which sets need large extended runs...
    KungFuKenny
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,761
    pharmjod said:
    I'm sure it's also great market research for LEGO to know which sets need large extended runs...

    I do not see these sets like the Stranger things and Gingerbread house getting extended runs. I just don't, other than maybe, maybe making up for the lost production time that may have occurred with the virus outbreak.
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    madforLEGO said:
    pharmjod said:
    I'm sure it's also great market research for LEGO to know which sets need large extended runs...

    I do not see these sets like the Stranger things and Gingerbread house getting extended runs. I just don't, other than maybe, maybe making up for the lost production time that may have occurred with the virus outbreak.
    They'll produce enough to make sure Gingerbread House is around for next Christmas (2021), right? The Fire Station should be retiring in 2020, and there's no way they'll have a Christmas season with only the new 2021 set. Although I guess they could opt for additional production of Fire Station instead of Gingerbread House, like they did with Parisian Cafe over BB and DO.
    pharmjod
  • autolycusautolycus Member Posts: 1,427
    Brickfanz posted an announcement from Lego about availability and retirements:

    During the past few months we have seen a strong demand for our products as families and hobbyists turn to building to help them get through this difficult period. As a result, we have been working incredibly hard to make sure that our products are available online in our stores and our retail partners’ ecommerce sites.

    We have been fortunate that our factories in Europe and Asia continue to operate.  Our factory in Mexico has been closed for the past few weeks after the Mexican government ordered all non-essential manufacturing sites to close while the country focussed on preventing the spread of the virus.  We have been using our full global supply chain to ship products to all markets and fulfil orders as best as possible.

    While COVID has created a very dynamic and uncertain environment, at this stage it hasn’t impacted decisions about when to retire products.

    It does confirm that the stock issues are not just about supply and distribution, but that they're selling more sets. It confirms the reports that the Mexico factory is still closed, which has certainly affected stock in the US and Canada, and secondarily in other markets as production in Asia and Europe is being split to cover North America as well.  And finally, it confirms that they are not going to retire products early because of these two issues. That likely means they will end up producing more of certain sets than originally planned, to make up for the extra demand. Good news for collectors!
    KungFuKennypharmjodvanvonfullprevereAstrobricksPapaBear
  • Koolbrix2018Koolbrix2018 Member Posts: 48
    edited May 2020
    I'm personally very interested in seeing what modulars will retire this year, if any. I definitely think that the Assembly Square will, but am unsure if any others will (I don't imagine they may.) The Downtown Diner could potentially retire as it would have been out 3 years (like Brick Bank), but it does seem more popular than the Brick Bank. The Corner Garage retiring is what interests me though, as (since its not exactly the most popular modular) I'm thinking it might retire next year? If it retired this year, that would seem way too short. By the way, its great to hear what Brickfanz reported from TLG saying sets (hopefully) won't retire early.  
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    edited May 2020
    I could see assembly square sticking around for a while and the corner garage going. AS reminds me more of the Parisian Restaurant in that it seems to be a popular modular and it is a great starting point for lots of people. The garage kind of sucks.
    FollowsClosely
  • karritkarrit Member Posts: 908
    I really hope they don't retire Assembly Square yet as I really would like to get it.  I managed to grab the Parisian Restaurant during Black Friday deals last year.  My wish list of large, pricey sets is getting longer by the day so I need to start prioritizing.   I'm thinking that Assembly Square should be my next big purchase.  But I need all the new Harry Potter & I'm really liking at least two of the three new Creator 3 in 1 sets.  Want the Haunted House coming too and then there is always the next Winter Village set.  Not to mention the next batch of Ideas sets.  Good thing I don't go for the Large Star Wars sets although I'm tempted by the Razorcrest.
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