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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,818
    560Heliport said:
    It would explain why my cats like to chew on pieces...
    I’ve trained mine to retrieve pieces I dropped under the furniture :)

    Or, rather, the cat does it anyway and I’m claiming credit!
     
    CymbelineVorpalRyugmonkey76
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,442
    JMaster said:
    This set won't come out till September, but do you think it'd be a good idea to save a mint Razor's Crest? As a long-term investment, of course...
    I wouldn't buy in September. There are two ways to make money: long term investment or quick flip hoping they are out of stock at Christmas. For a long term investment buy near the end of retail life.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,565
    This is certainly fraught for profiteering at Christmas if they didn't order a bazillion of these things.  Razor Crest and Minecraft...
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 927
    The only time I’ve ever bought a set at release for investment was #41999 because it was limited edition.
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 66
    So at ShopLego.com in the US both the VW Beatle and the Camper Van are on backorder.
    Does this mean they will be back in stock or is it Lego speak for they are now discontinued?
    They have both been around awhile so now is a good time for me to panic.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,698
    It is completely ridiculous that the Camper Van is still for sale.
    thenosRonyarmadforLEGOpharmjodprevere
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,818
    Bumblepants said:
    It is completely ridiculous that the Camper Van is still for sale.
    And thus it will never be an investment since there are so many out there.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,698
    Astrobricks said:
    Bumblepants said:
    It is completely ridiculous that the Camper Van is still for sale.
    And thus it will never be an investment since there are so many out there.
    People were undoubtedly stuffing these in a back closet for resale back in 2012 & '13
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 66
    Thanks for the comments, so you’re saying you think they are discontinued and if I want
    one for myself I should find one soon at a Lego store ? ( to build not to resell )
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Deep in the Heart of TexasMember Posts: 1,640
    edited March 2020
    Marshallmario said:
    Thanks for the comments, so you’re saying you think they are discontinued and if I want
    one for myself I should find one soon at a Lego store ? ( to build not to resell )
    I believe they are saying that the sets will retire sometime between tomorrow and January 2028...🙂

    (there is no “retiring soon” label so your guess is as good as any)
    Astrobricksgmonkey76
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,818
    Well, Tower Bridge had a solid ten year run. I’m guessing the camper van actually does retire this year (introduced in 2011). 
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,949
    I would speculate that the Camper van should retire before the Beetle (and then see the Bettle have a 10 yr run) but then again ....
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,698
    if you want to build them, get one now with the nice train freebie promo item and then get the other in a few weeks when its 2x vip points or some other promo has come along
    madforLEGOgmonkey76
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 66
    I’m going to be in Milwaukee tomorrow and they have a store there so I will let you know how it turns out. Really appreciate the input!
    madforLEGO
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,565
    I don't expect LEGO would ignore an exploitative opportunity to get a sales bump by announcing the retirement of the Camper.  Or the Beetle.

    'Reitiring Soon'.... as we make the next batch and then it doesn't sell as well as a replacement product...
    Jackad7VorpalRyu
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,698
    SumoLego said:
    I don't expect LEGO would ignore an exploitative opportunity to get a sales bump by announcing the retirement of the Camper.  Or the Beetle.

    'Reitiring Soon'.... as we make the next batch and then it doesn't sell as well as a replacement product...
    Legend tells of a warehouse still filled with the second run of Ideas Exo-Suits lost to logistics but forever in our hearts.
    gmonkey76SumoLegoKungFuKennyVorpalRyu
  • flat_fourflat_four Member Posts: 18
    SumoLego said:
    I don't expect LEGO would ignore an exploitative opportunity to get a sales bump by announcing the retirement of the Camper.  Or the Beetle.

    'Reitiring Soon'.... as we make the next batch and then it doesn't sell as well as a replacement product...
    Without wanting to feed the LEGO corporate money making machine ideas... they have totally missed a trick if they don't keep re-releasing this set but in different colours every few years. The number of existing fans who are "forced" to buy every colour variant of it... whilst, also allowing new people entering the hobby are able to buy a LEGO model of an iconic and popular piece of pop automotive history, without paying discontinued item mark-up...
    I'm sure there'd be more than one or two...
    I'd certainly be placing an order for a yellow, green, blue or every other colour version they release!!!😬😫
    560HeliportReesesPiecesSumoLegoVorpalRyusid3windrsnowhitie
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 899
    flat_four said:
    SumoLego said:
    I don't expect LEGO would ignore an exploitative opportunity to get a sales bump by announcing the retirement of the Camper.  Or the Beetle.

    'Reitiring Soon'.... as we make the next batch and then it doesn't sell as well as a replacement product...
    Without wanting to feed the LEGO corporate money making machine ideas... they have totally missed a trick if they don't keep re-releasing this set but in different colours every few years. The number of existing fans who are "forced" to buy every colour variant of it... whilst, also allowing new people entering the hobby are able to buy a LEGO model of an iconic and popular piece of pop automotive history, without paying discontinued item mark-up...
    I'm sure there'd be more than one or two...
    I'd certainly be placing an order for a yellow, green, blue or every other colour version they release!!!😬😫
    To be honest if they were to do something like that I'd hope they'd go for a full update. Just think of how much more accurate they could make the vehicle with all the small detail parts that have been introduced since way back in 2011!

    KungFuKennyVorpalRyu
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    Bumblepants said:
    SumoLego said:
    I don't expect LEGO would ignore an exploitative opportunity to get a sales bump by announcing the retirement of the Camper.  Or the Beetle.

    'Reitiring Soon'.... as we make the next batch and then it doesn't sell as well as a replacement product...
    Legend tells of a warehouse still filled with the second run of Ideas Exo-Suits lost to logistics but forever in our hearts.

    I think they are buried where all those ET Atari games went.
    KungFuKenny560HeliportVorpalRyu
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 3,818
    prevere said:
    Bumblepants said:
    SumoLego said:
    I don't expect LEGO would ignore an exploitative opportunity to get a sales bump by announcing the retirement of the Camper.  Or the Beetle.

    'Reitiring Soon'.... as we make the next batch and then it doesn't sell as well as a replacement product...
    Legend tells of a warehouse still filled with the second run of Ideas Exo-Suits lost to logistics but forever in our hearts.

    I think they are buried where all those ET Atari games went.
    They dug those up!
    560HeliportVorpalRyuKungFuKennysid3windr
  • MarshallmarioMarshallmario Madison WIMember Posts: 66
    Went to Lego store in Milwaukee yesterday and they did not have the Camper Van so I bought the Beatle. Also got the train GWP. Employee did not know if either was going to be or already was discontinued so he said call back in a week and see if we got any in. No vans online at Walmart or Target so we shall see if I waited too long.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,565
    Marshallmario said:
    ...bought the Beatle...
    John or Paul?
    KungFuKenny560Heliportgmonkey76prevereGothamConstructionCoVorpalRyuBuriedinBricksdatsunrobbie
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Deep in the Heart of TexasMember Posts: 1,640
    SumoLego said:
    Marshallmario said:
    ...bought the Beatle...
    John or Paul?
    Too pricey... Ringo was on sale though...
    560Heliportgmonkey76SumoLegoGothamConstructionCoVorpalRyudatsunrobbie
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,949
    Yeah but Ringo is always on sale
    KungFuKennyVorpalRyu
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 978
    Wait...I thought they all retired long ago except for paul!?!
    VorpalRyuSnizzlebutts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,426
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    SumoLegoRonyardavetheoxygenmangmonkey76
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,442
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

    :-)

    560HeliportKungFuKennygmonkey76
  • Gibbo1959Gibbo1959 Northumbria UKMember Posts: 390
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    Blimey, you’ve not been locked in at @Legoboy’s house all this time have you?

    Welcome back, the forum’s been far too sensible lately.
    560HeliportPitfall69Bumblepantsgmonkey76
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,426
    CCC said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

    :-)

    Is it really? Wow. 
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 708
    CCC said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

    :-)

    Wait, is that right?! I have one (thank you Amazon lighting deal and my lucky wife!!), but that'd be really early in the year for it to be gone already, right?

    That has me super worried about the Hogwarts Great Hall that has been out of stock for a few weeks. I had hoped to get it at 20% eventually, but I missed the couple opportunities in March because of COVID lockdown.
    gmonkey76
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,426
    madforLEGO said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 

    Sorry, you have to perform your penance for being gone this long.. you will need to stare at a #10214 Tower Bridge for 9 years.
    In all seriousness, glad to see you back and I hope all is well.
    My family and I are fine at the moment. Unfortunately, we have $0 income coming in because we are both self employed and our business was shut down by executive order order several weeks ago :(


    SumoLegodavetheoxygenmanThe_RancormadforLEGOgmonkey76
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,949
    Pitfall69 said:
    madforLEGO said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 

    Sorry, you have to perform your penance for being gone this long.. you will need to stare at a #10214 Tower Bridge for 9 years.
    In all seriousness, glad to see you back and I hope all is well.
    My family and I are fine at the moment. Unfortunately, we have $0 income coming in because we are both self employed and our business was shut down by executive order order several weeks ago :(



    That sucks about your business and I really am hoping that this non essential business closure stuff stops soon! Self servingly, I need a haircut, and besides, people need to get paid to provide that haircut!
    While I enjoy the somewhat empty office building, empty roads and ability to get an easy spot at the post office when I need to send something out, I'm getting sick of this 'run and hide from the boogeyman' attitude and getting to the point (especially when I heard the story about how you should also disinfect or wash your shoes after being out in the world) where I really do not care if I get this stupid virus or not (that is of course if I already did not get it back in December). Plus I would like to be able to go to a LEGO store for figures and pick a brick sometime this year.
    KungFuKennySumoLegoMCNwakeboardPitfall69gmonkey76
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,986
    madforLEGO said:

    Self servingly, I need a haircut, and besides, people need to get paid to provide that haircut!

    I think hairdressers will struggle after lockdown. They'll have no "patter" seeing as it's all about "where are you going on holiday this year?". 
    Pitfall69gmonkey76
  • matgazmatgaz italyMember Posts: 1
    Hello everybody!
    If you were starting to buy Lego as an investment, what are the 10 sets on sale that you would bet on now?
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 708
    matgaz said:
    Hello everybody!
    If you were starting to buy Lego as an investment, what are the 10 sets on sale that you would bet on now?
    I personally wouldn't recommend investing in Lego because it's a collectors' market, and those are notoriously fickle and hard to predict. The market can be extremely robust for many years, only to collapse very rapidly without any real signs. See, for example, the markets for comics and baseball cards.

    But, so far, the modulars seem to hold or gain value after they're retired. Anything that's harder to get will always do better. Gifts with purchase, especially for popular lines like Star Wars and Harry Potter usually do well. Spend some time looking through Bricklink to figure out your own patterns of what lines and types of sets have done the best. Get sets similar to those. That's the best guess anybody will be able to make.
    Jackad7Charmiefcbgmonkey76
  • milambermilamber Norfolk UKMember Posts: 627
    Most things meant for Christmas ultimately do well as long as you get them at a discount. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,949
    edited April 2020
    matgaz said:
    Hello everybody!
    If you were starting to buy Lego as an investment, what are the 10 sets on sale that you would bet on now?

    If everyone knew 'what sets to buy' for 'betting' on, they would not be sets worth betting on. For example, one person says Modulars, so you buy modulars (you and anyone else who happens to think its a good idea after seeing that) so then you instantly have  not one but many people buying into that, driving the supply after EOL up and the demand down.
    Suffice it to say that if you want to work real hard and spend a lot up front, you may make out OK. This is not like it was about 15 years ago when you could really make some cash on sets. That and Lepin  (and other knockoffs) did not exist which have driven prices of EOL sets down as well.
    KungFuKennyPitfall69gmonkey76
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 493
    edited April 2020
    The Falcon should be back in stock at some point.  There are more people buying LEGO online right now and that would have affected supplies.  They don't keep lots of stock of the big sets on hand.

    Would you look at Tower Bridge and the Camper Van though.  What kind of madness is this.  Camper Van is out of stock everywhere, but [email protected] says backorder for 45 days so that would indicate they are making more.  I don't know if I would buy any more vans, but I wish I hadn't sold my TBs.
    Pitfall69madforLEGOBumblepantsgmonkey76
  • DB361DB361 UKMember Posts: 269
    ^ Agreed, I wouldn't read anything whatsoever in what's OOS at the minute. Sales will be massively up, and production I would have thought will be massively down. Of course this is going to lead to shortages. I also personally don't think the current shortages will increase the desirability of stock once retired, rather it will just increase the shelf life of the current waves, especially as I'd have thought the amount of work the design teams will be doing on future sets will be down right now as well. I know Denmark is significantly closer to easing restrictions than the UK is, but I have no doubt it's still had a very significant impact on the whole process, not just what's in stock. 
    PapaBear
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,442
    autolycus said:
    CCC said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

    :-)

    Wait, is that right?! I have one (thank you Amazon lighting deal and my lucky wife!!), but that'd be really early in the year for it to be gone already, right?

    No, it was a joke. I wouldn't be buying that one as an investment for a long time yet.

    autolycus
  • autolycusautolycus US-SEMember Posts: 708
    CCC said:
    autolycus said:
    CCC said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year? 
    It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

    :-)

    Wait, is that right?! I have one (thank you Amazon lighting deal and my lucky wife!!), but that'd be really early in the year for it to be gone already, right?

    No, it was a joke. I wouldn't be buying that one as an investment for a long time yet.

    It is rumored to be retiring this year, but I would personally be very surprised if it did. The Death Star, OTOH, might really.

    I've been very spoiled with May 4 and Black Friday sales helping me catch up on my wishlist backlog (from my dark ages) a little more ... cash efficiently.

    In addition to the Hogwarts Great Hall, there are some large sets I expect to retire in 2020, and had planned/hoped to get for a decent discount:

    1) Tantive IV (maybe "expect" is too strong, but it might, so I will be careful with this one. Will jump on any discount on May 4.)
    2) 20th Anniversary Slave I (don't need this one like some of the others, so I might jump on a good May 4 or Black Friday discount.)
    3) Roller Coaster
    4) Assembly Square
    5) Steamboat Willie
    6) Ideas Treehouse (will probably buy with any discount)
    7) Dinosaur Fossils
    8) Upside Down (will only buy if it's a really good Black Friday discount like one of the daily 40% off deals. If I miss out on it, I won't be upset)

    I'm definitely a little worried that the surge in buying paired with production slowdowns are going to mess some of this up because Lego may simply not have any left that it needs to clear out come December. A few of those I may just go on and buy if they're in stock at the next Double VIP promo or if there's a really interesting GWP.
  • milambermilamber Norfolk UKMember Posts: 627
    edited April 2020
    I've noticed a big surge in prices across the board in the UK, both for current and retired sets. The whole Harry Potter range is at full RRP everywhere when it's usually quite extensively discounted. The Forma Carp has broadly doubled in price in 5 weeks, looking at sold prices on Ebay. Destiny's Bounty 70618 was fetching around £90 new and sealed a few weeks back and now you'll be lucky to get it for £150. Short term perhaps owing to increased demand with all the kids off? 

    It's weeks now since I've seen anything decently discounted at Amazon or anywhere else.
  • gmonkey76gmonkey76 ChicagoMember Posts: 1,627
    monkeyhanger said:
    madforLEGO said:

    Self servingly, I need a haircut, and besides, people need to get paid to provide that haircut!

    I think hairdressers will struggle after lockdown. They'll have no "patter" seeing as it's all about "where are you going on holiday this year?". 
    Just ask the Mayor of Chicago for her hairdresser number. She's aloud to come over to your house to give you a haircut. 
    SumoLego560Heliport
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,565
    Appropriate Governorial Hair is essential.
    piratemania7
  • klintonklinton CanadaMember Posts: 1,189
    I would legit sell my soul for a haircut right now. I'd already been putting it off too long when all hell broke loose here and the lockdown began. It's just an obnoxious mop right now.
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,565
    I know a guy in Ann Arbor that would happily oblige when the lockdown ends.

    (I have the benefit of family member that cuts hair - so my Male-pattern-baldness cranium remains well-trimmed.)
    davetheoxygenmanpiratemania7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,949
    SumoLego said:
    I know a guy in Ann Arbor that would happily oblige when the lockdown ends.

    (I have the benefit of family member that cuts hair - so my Male-pattern-baldness cranium remains well-trimmed.)

    Yeah I have a bald top of my head and get a clipper cut normally, so I'm praying for the local Supercuts to reopen. While I guess I could buy some clippers and do the job myself, the problem is I do not want to look like Im shedding, or worse yet, that my floor is growing hair.
  • im2cre8ivim2cre8iv Utah, USAMember Posts: 133
    edited April 2020
    With the rumors of another HP Diagonal Alley set this year, if it DID end up being true, what kind of effect do you think it would have on the after-market value of #10217? Does it mainly depend on how closely the models and included minifigs resemble one another?
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 493
    edited April 2020
    ^ #10217 is a cornerstone of the earlier HP series and it consists of very well designed smaller modular buildings which HP doesn't have much of especially in the earlier lines.  It is a fun build and looks really nice once built.  I don't think a new Diagon Alley would look too similar, therefore, I wouldn't expect much affect on #10217.

    Buildings in Harry Potter are primarily castles.  There was the Shrieking Shack and The Burrow which are also noteworthy HP buildings, but #10217 is the only other modular like buildings currently in HP.  Any new ones would be welcome.
    im2cre8iv
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