Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

madforLEGO · April 20

SumoLego said:

I know a guy in Ann Arbor that would happily oblige when the lockdown ends.

(I have the benefit of family member that cuts hair - so my Male-pattern-baldness cranium remains well-trimmed.)

Yeah I have a bald top of my head and get a clipper cut normally, so I'm praying for the local Supercuts to reopen. While I guess I could buy some clippers and do the job myself, the problem is I do not want to look like Im shedding, or worse yet, that my floor is growing hair.

im2cre8iv · April 20

With the rumors of another HP Diagonal Alley set this year, if it DID end up being true, what kind of effect do you think it would have on the after-market value of #10217? Does it mainly depend on how closely the models and included minifigs resemble one another?

PapaBear · April 20

^ #10217 is a cornerstone of the earlier HP series and it consists of very well designed smaller modular buildings which HP doesn't have much of especially in the earlier lines. It is a fun build and looks really nice once built. I don't think a new Diagon Alley would look too similar, therefore, I wouldn't expect much affect on #10217.

Buildings in Harry Potter are primarily castles. There was the Shrieking Shack and The Burrow which are also noteworthy HP buildings, but #10217 is the only other modular like buildings currently in HP. Any new ones would be welcome.

CCC · April 20

milamber said:

The Forma Carp has broadly doubled in price in 5 weeks, looking at sold prices on Ebay.

That ties in with it going out of stock at LEGO. I bought a few for resale and it wasn't worth selling them on at the £15-20 profit after fees prices they were going for on ebay (even when they were still for sale on the LEGO website).

monstblitz · April 20

autolycus said:

CCC said:

autolycus said:

CCC said:

Pitfall69 said:

I've been away from the hobby for a spell. It the UCS Millennium Falcon going to be retired this year?

It's already gone. If you spot any, buy them now!

:-)

Wait, is that right?! I have one (thank you Amazon lighting deal and my lucky wife!!), but that'd be really early in the year for it to be gone already, right?

No, it was a joke. I wouldn't be buying that one as an investment for a long time yet.

It is rumored to be retiring this year, but I would personally be very surprised if it did. The Death Star, OTOH, might really.

I've been very spoiled with May 4 and Black Friday sales helping me catch up on my wishlist backlog (from my dark ages) a little more ... cash efficiently.

In addition to the Hogwarts Great Hall, there are some large sets I expect to retire in 2020, and had planned/hoped to get for a decent discount:

1) Tantive IV (maybe "expect" is too strong, but it might, so I will be careful with this one. Will jump on any discount on May 4.)
2) 20th Anniversary Slave I (don't need this one like some of the others, so I might jump on a good May 4 or Black Friday discount.)
3) Roller Coaster
4) Assembly Square
5) Steamboat Willie
6) Ideas Treehouse (will probably buy with any discount)
7) Dinosaur Fossils
8) Upside Down (will only buy if it's a really good Black Friday discount like one of the daily 40% off deals. If I miss out on it, I won't be upset)

I'm definitely a little worried that the surge in buying paired with production slowdowns are going to mess some of this up because Lego may simply not have any left that it needs to clear out come December. A few of those I may just go on and buy if they're in stock at the next Double VIP promo or if there's a really interesting GWP.

Right there with you on Tantive IV and Treehouse, although with Treehouse I'd buy that one at retail right now if I could. Really kicking myself for not back ordering it during double VIP points. I'm sure it will come back in stock, or at least pretty sure, but it's one I'd like to be building right about now.

PapaBear · April 21

I would say the most likely to go are Disney Castle, Vesta Turbine, and Death Star. Then there's the wildcard where they don't retire anything and introduce 3 big sets this year anyways. I wouldn't expect an HP to go for a few more years.

piratemania7 · April 21

PapaBear said:

I would say the most likely to go are Disney Castle, Vesta Turbine, and Death Star. Then there's the wildcard where they don't retire anything and introduce 3 big sets this year anyways. I wouldn't expect an HP to go for a few more years.

Is there a lot of talk about the Vesta Turbine retiring this year? I don’t feel like it has been out that long. I’ve been out of this for a bit and getting back in again so just looking to catch up on the info.

Astrobricks · April 21

Vestas. Vesta is an asteroid.

SumoLego · April 21

Vespa is a Druish Princess.

Gibbo1959 · April 21

I thought Vespa was an Italian scooter. And Vesta was one of the original ready meals.

KungFuKenny · April 21

SumoLego said:

Vespa is a Druish Princess.

Her action figure is set to retire this year. Have you seen the aftermarket prices for Dark Helmet and Prince Valium? You should definitely stock up while she is still available...

PapaBear · April 21

The Vestas Turbine has been out for 18 months. I haven't heard anything about it. I just don't imagine it selling that well with only 800 pieces. It looks a bit dated. Super short build.

SumoLego · April 22

Red Buttons, Standing By...

madforLEGO · April 22

SumoLego said:

Red Buttons, Standing By...

Simply Red, standing by...

hoyatables · April 22

Big Red, standing by...

Bumblepants · April 22

Red Dead Redemption standing by...

KungFuKenny · April 22

Helen Reddy standing by...

CCC · April 22

What reasoning would there be for the Death Star to go (other than to make way for another new version)? That and its predecessor has been in production 12 years. Why stop now?

SumoLego · April 22

I doubt it'll 'retire' for any period of time. It's 'THE' set for kids that want a playset. It's not too difficult to build and easy to rub in other kids' faces.

autolycus · April 22

SumoLego said:

I doubt it'll 'retire' for any period of time. It's 'THE' set for kids that want a playset. It's not too difficult to build and easy to rub in other kids' faces.

I dunno. Most kids would have a really hard time picking that set up, let alone carrying over to their friend and rubbing it in their friend's face. It would definitely break apart if they did that.

klinton · April 22

autolycus said:

SumoLego said:

I doubt it'll 'retire' for any period of time. It's 'THE' set for kids that want a playset. It's not too difficult to build and easy to rub in other kids' faces.

I dunno. Most kids would have a really hard time picking that set up, let alone carrying over to their friend and rubbing it in their friend's face. It would definitely break apart if they did that.

Play dates, yo! Didn't you ever go play in a friend's rumpus room after school?

SumoLego · April 22

autolycus said:
...let alone carrying over to their friend...

Oh, no no. If you have a LEGO Death Star, people come to your house/residence to view it. And marvel at it... and be super-impressed.

autolycus · April 22

SumoLego said:

autolycus said:
...let alone carrying over to their friend...

Oh, no no. If you have a LEGO Death Star, people come to your house/residence to view it. And marvel at it... and be super-impressed.

My joke fell flat. I was imagining a kid literally rubbing the set against another kid's face. Lego on face violence, if you will.

Astrobricks · April 23

autolycus said:

SumoLego said:

autolycus said:
...let alone carrying over to their friend...

Oh, no no. If you have a LEGO Death Star, people come to your house/residence to view it. And marvel at it... and be super-impressed.

My joke fell flat. I was imagining a kid literally rubbing the set against another kid's face. Lego on face violence, if you will.

People come to your domicile to rub their faces on your Death Star.

Tkatt · April 23

^This is why I keep telling my wife we need three Death Stars. One to build, one to keep in the box as an investment, one for guests to rub their face on. She just doesn't understand.

560Heliport · April 23

^Six. You need six. Three of #10188, and three of #75159. :-)

SumoLego · April 23

Tkatt said:

...one for guests to rub their face on...

I'd consider kragleing one for the boasting and rubbing in people's faces. Someone gives you a Heisman-style stiffarm, you don't want to Ned Leeds it all over the floor...

SumoLego · April 23

autolycus said:
My joke fell flat.

You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.

autolycus · April 23

SumoLego said:

autolycus said:
My joke fell flat.

You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.

I'll make it up in volume!

samiam391 · April 23

I see absolutely nothing has changed about this thread.

SumoLego · April 23

By design?

Astrobricks · April 25

autolycus said:

SumoLego said:

autolycus said:
My joke fell flat.

You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.

I'll make it up in volume!

I believe that was his point :)

autolycus · April 25

Astrobricks said:

autolycus said:

SumoLego said:

autolycus said:
My joke fell flat.

You can't work way up to 35,000 'likes' without having lots of clever jokes fall completely flat.

I'll make it up in volume!

I believe that was his point :)

Well, yeah, of course it was his point. But my simple response got me 3 likes closer... vol...ume... baby. 🤣

Pitfall69 · April 27

samiam391 said:

I see absolutely nothing has changed about this thread.

...and of course I came back from the dead and resurrected the thread; a double resurrection if you will ;)

prevere · April 30

We just need LFT back and the thread will be back up to speed!

CCC · April 30

He's probably standing by.

autolycus · May 7

I saw a couple references elsewhere to a new list of sets that are officially retiring, but I can’t seem to find the list anywhere. Anybody got a lead on it? Any large sets or unexpected sets on the list?

bpk2300 · May 12

Cannot remember if it's been talked about here or not, but any rumors of the Hogwarts Castle #71043-1 retiring? I've held off on this set because of the price, but it's been out-of-stock for a while now and I'm getting worried.

karmajay · May 12

Most stuff is out of stock right now due to manufacturing slow down all over he world.

Astrobricks · May 12

karmajay said:

Most stuff is out of stock right now due to manufacturing slow down all over he world.

And someone said above that the Mexico factory is closed.

Charmiefcb · May 13

bpk2300 said:

Cannot remember if it's been talked about here or not, but any rumors of the Hogwarts Castle #71043-1 retiring? I've held off on this set because of the price, but it's been out-of-stock for a while now and I'm getting worried.

To me it's a set with a long shelf life. Considering the size of the set and the popularity of the franchise. To my knowledge wave 1 of Harry Potter sets are not retiring yet. Maybe the lack of play value considering it is just a model really could go against it in terms of sales.

SumoLego · May 13

It's safe to say the Castle will around for awhile. It's a super-premium set for a theme that has a fair number of adults that follow the franchise.

Much like the UCS MF and the Tower Bridge.

Astrobricks · May 13

#71043 seems like it is a good candidate for rebranding as 18+, except I’m not sure if TLG wants to mix that marketing with their licensed themes.

bpk2300 · May 13

^^ I think my worry is coming from me assuming that the upcoming (?) D2C Diagon Alley set could possibly supplant the Castle.

masterX244 · May 13

Astrobricks said:

#71043 seems like it is a good candidate for rebranding as 18+, except I’m not sure if TLG wants to mix that marketing with their licensed themes.

Its already mixed. #75276 and companions

prevere · May 14

I will say the lack of inventory on current sets is driving up pricing on ebay and elsewhere, and is offering a rare crystal ball effect into aftermarket potential. Just look at Stranger Things. Going for double, Gingerbread House as well.

pharmjod · May 14

I'm sure it's also great market research for LEGO to know which sets need large extended runs...

madforLEGO · May 14

pharmjod said:

I'm sure it's also great market research for LEGO to know which sets need large extended runs...

I do not see these sets like the Stranger things and Gingerbread house getting extended runs. I just don't, other than maybe, maybe making up for the lost production time that may have occurred with the virus outbreak.

autolycus · May 14

madforLEGO said:

pharmjod said:

I'm sure it's also great market research for LEGO to know which sets need large extended runs...

I do not see these sets like the Stranger things and Gingerbread house getting extended runs. I just don't, other than maybe, maybe making up for the lost production time that may have occurred with the virus outbreak.

They'll produce enough to make sure Gingerbread House is around for next Christmas (2021), right? The Fire Station should be retiring in 2020, and there's no way they'll have a Christmas season with only the new 2021 set. Although I guess they could opt for additional production of Fire Station instead of Gingerbread House, like they did with Parisian Cafe over BB and DO.

autolycus · May 14

Brickfanz posted an announcement from Lego about availability and retirements:

During the past few months we have seen a strong demand for our products as families and hobbyists turn to building to help them get through this difficult period. As a result, we have been working incredibly hard to make sure that our products are available online in our stores and our retail partners’ ecommerce sites.

We have been fortunate that our factories in Europe and Asia continue to operate. Our factory in Mexico has been closed for the past few weeks after the Mexican government ordered all non-essential manufacturing sites to close while the country focussed on preventing the spread of the virus. We have been using our full global supply chain to ship products to all markets and fulfil orders as best as possible.

While COVID has created a very dynamic and uncertain environment, at this stage it hasn’t impacted decisions about when to retire products.

It does confirm that the stock issues are not just about supply and distribution, but that they're selling more sets. It confirms the reports that the Mexico factory is still closed, which has certainly affected stock in the US and Canada, and secondarily in other markets as production in Asia and Europe is being split to cover North America as well. And finally, it confirms that they are not going to retire products early because of these two issues. That likely means they will end up producing more of certain sets than originally planned, to make up for the extra demand. Good news for collectors!

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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