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How Covid-19 affects our hobby

245

Comments

  • GrannyLEGOGrannyLEGO FloridaMember Posts: 258
    Part of my monthly trip to the LEGO store up in Jacksonville is doing the PaB and BaM and I don't think that would be a wise thing for me as an at risk person to do even if the store itself is doing them.
  • donutboydonutboy U.K.Member Posts: 762
    oldtodd33 said:

    The thing that worries me the most is Americans current consumption of guns and ammunition. There is currently a 3 day wait to pass a background check (usually 10 min) and ammunition is starting to get expensive and is harder to find. Especially 5.56 and 9mm, 
    You never know who you're gonna have to blow away for that last pack of bog roll.
    Brickchapoldtodd33DoktorLBOBJACK_JACKBOB
  • oldtodd33oldtodd33 Denver 4800 miles to BillundMember Posts: 2,610
    When this is all over there will be a ton of never used guns and new ammo for sale. 
    BrickchapSumoLego
  • panchox1panchox1 The Outer RimMember Posts: 670
    a Few days ago, I had placed an order for Assembly Square on [email protected] It was backordered. Got an email today that it is not "out of stock". I assume it's based on factory slow down due to a smaller work force on site. Or maybe the Chinese supply chain slowing down. it seems the B&P area closing is directly related to personnel shortages on site. But who knows. We'll see if my recent P&B order ships.  Stay safe my friends, be sensible. Don't overreact but don't be dismissive either.
    560HeliportKungFuKennymonkeyhangerDoktorL
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,012
    edited March 2020
    ^ Bought Assembly Square on Friday. On back order here in the UK too, but saw a handy new (or I just never noticed) feature on the website - stock check your local store. I saw Metrocentre had stock so went and bought it.

    Had to settle for a nerf gun to protect my purchase.
    560Heliportoldtodd33BrickchapSumoLegoKungFuKennygmonkey76andheMr_Cross
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    Pardon my completely lack of faith in anything government-managed in California.  Considering San Francisco has a rampant homelessness problem, there is a fair bit of irony that there's a 'Shelter in Place' order...

    Anyway, everyone be sensible and safe.  And buy enough toilet paper to choke a blue whale.
    pharmjodgmonkey76bpk2300Jackad7
  • panchox1panchox1 The Outer RimMember Posts: 670
    ^ Bought Assembly Square on Friday. On back order here in the UK too, but saw a handy new (or I just never noticed) feature on the website - stock check your local store.

    Nice. My "local" store is over 6 hours away. :-/


    I could always cancel it and get it from Amazon for the same price. Just no VIP Points, no GWPs.  Not sure if I should wait or go for it.

  • ModeltrainmanModeltrainman In the Disney Infinity Toybox, Windows, or digging through LEGO parts in the USA.Member Posts: 734
    So, for anyone wondering, B&P/LEGO CS was a bit behind before coronavirus, Sounds like B&P orders that were made should still ship out! I just talked to LEGO to find out.
    klintonRonyar
  • panchox1panchox1 The Outer RimMember Posts: 670
    hope they reopen as anticipated. I need about 20 of the new train wheel hubs. was in the process of replacing all mine. I got the wheels from PaB. but no hubs were listed that I could see/find.
    SumoLego
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    I just bought the Creeper BigFig Minecraft set using Target drive up collection. I told my wife we needed to test it out for social distancing. Been waiting for it to go on discount and 20% was good enough for me.
    Genius.
    gmonkey76SumoLegoBumblepants
  • FodderFodder AustraliaMember Posts: 333
    My ‘local’ store has closed its PaB wall and BaM stations. These were the only reasons I made the hour-long trip (with all the tolls) so that currently means I’m saving money. I also have a large PaB order from LEGO sitting in my cart, but haven’t pulled the trigger yet because I’m not sure that the order will be fulfilled.
  • 77ncaachamps77ncaachamps Aspiring Time Traveler Stuck in the West (US)Member Posts: 2,442
    SumoLego said:
    Pardon my completely lack of faith in anything government-managed in California.  Considering San Francisco has a rampant homelessness problem, there is a fair bit of irony that there's a 'Shelter in Place' order...

    Anyway, everyone be sensible and safe.  And buy enough toilet paper to choke a blue whale.
    If we had snow, Sumo, you may not see the same issues of homelessness.
    Sure there are other reasons people want to point to (social philosophies that influence government policies just to provide a popular example), but in short it is because of the cost of housing. Period. That's the #1 issue. Everything else is secondary.

    If there are workers who live in their cars, homelessness for them is right around the corner.

    Keeping in line with this thread, the Bay Area has one of the largest concentrations of CV cases. If we don't stem it or restrict movement, it may spill over into other parts of California and neighboring states.

    Look at China and Italy and learn lessons from them.

    In reference to LEGO, I really wonder how BL will be affected, if any.
    USPS and shippers are still working...but the contact of counting out and placing pieces and packages together is so hands-on.

    Tkattcatwrangler
  • KungFuKennyKungFuKenny Somewhere between Ice Station Odyssey and FabulandMember Posts: 2,055

    In reference to LEGO, I really wonder how BL will be affected, if any.
    USPS and shippers are still working...but the contact of counting out and placing pieces and packages together is so hands-on.

    The pre-print NIH study by van Doremalen et al (not published yet) shows that Covid can live up to 24 hours on cardboard, and 2-3 days on plastic.  Just don’t open your BrickLink packages for a few days if you want to be extra cautious...

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
  • lowleadlowlead USAMember Posts: 199
    Well I don't know about anyone else, but I'm exhausted from building...

    ...my toilet paper fort.

    It doesn't rain here anymore, it just gets absorbed.


    KungFuKennySumoLego560Heliportgmonkey76Mynatt
  • panchox1panchox1 The Outer RimMember Posts: 670
    spray with Lysol before and after opening.
    SumoLegoModeltrainman
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    samiam391 said:
    ...using Target drive up collection. I told my wife we needed to test it out for social distancing...
    Genius.
    @Bumblepants is very, very clever.  I hope one day to murder him in his sleep, or toss him down a reactor shaft. 

    Or be convinced by a projection of my deceased father and a strangly odd smooch with his cloned daughter/granddaughter to help Force-dust his poorly cloned but reanimated... zzzzzzz....
    Bumblepants560Heliportgmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    panchox1 said:
    spray with Lysol before and after opening.
    The package, and your hands.
    560Heliport
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,978
    SumoLego said:
    samiam391 said:
    ...using Target drive up collection. I told my wife we needed to test it out for social distancing...
    Genius.
    @Bumblepants is very, very clever.  I hope one day to murder him in his sleep, or toss him down a reactor shaft. 

    Or be convinced by a projection of my deceased father and a strangly odd smooch with his cloned daughter/granddaughter to help Force-dust his poorly cloned but reanimated... zzzzzzz....
    Slow down there or you will run out of alcohol before day 10 of quarentine. Gotta pace yourself!
    560HeliportSumoLegogmonkey76izx
  • Blockwork_OrangeBlockwork_Orange ON, CanadaMember Posts: 122
    I received the following email from Toys R Us this evening.  It was also rumoured on one of the evening news reports from Toronto, that some malls may be ordered to be closed.  

    Dear Canadian Parents, Families, Friends and Gift-Givers,

    Out of an abundance of caution, we have made the decision to temporarily close our 82 stores until March 30, 2020. This decision is based on prioritizing the well-being of our customers and team members. Our online stores at toysrus.ca and babiesrus.ca remain open to serve you. We will also continue to offer our curbside pick-up service at all locations.

    At Toys"R"Us and Babies"R"Us, we want to partner with you to help your kids achieve their potential, so they grow up to be good young adults. As we navigate the days and weeks ahead we will continue to deliver on this commitment to you our loyal customers.  This decision will be reviewed on a daily basis after considering the recommendations of the Public Health Agency of Canada.


    Stay safe fellow Canadians.

    Vic Bertrand
    President & CEO

  • flightriskflightrisk USAMember Posts: 163
    I sprayed a paper towel with Lysol and wiped my new sets down.   Was afraid the boxes would bubble up if I over sprayed.  It might be a better idea to just spray the hell out of the outer cardboard box and then wait a few days before opening.  But who really knows at this point.  It seems this virus likes to mutate.   I’ll probably still wipe them down.  
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    Bumblepants said:
    Gotta pace yourself!
    Uuuuuuuunlimited LEGOOOOOooooooo!!!!

    Phew!  Does anyone have an orange slice?
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 505
    A significant proportion of patients infected with this coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) end up requiring hospitalization and assisted ventilation.

    As widespread testing becomes available, the true mortality rate will become apparent and will decrease over time.  However, the total number of infections is increasing exponentially most everywhere.  The total number of fatalities will increase accordingly, unfortunately.

    All the measures that are being taken, including extreme social distancing, at a very high price for global economy, aim to slow down the rate of patient influx into hospitals.  It is a numbers game and capacity will likely be reached everywhere unless the rate of new infections can slow down.  This does not happen with the flu.

    Follow CDC guidelines and your local authorities to do what you can to help slow this epidemic down.  use the Johns Hopkins dashboard if you are interested in the data.

    I know we just made the 20s but will not be surprised if this is a defining event of the 21st century.
    Redbullgivesuwindpanchox1Modeltrainmansklambizxbrickventurescatwrangler
  • benbacardibenbacardi EnglandMember Posts: 703
    It seems they've closed all their UK stores now:


  • RedbullgivesuwindRedbullgivesuwind Brickset's Secret HeadquatersMember Posts: 1,962
    All the measures that are being taken, including extreme social distancing, at a very high price for global economy, aim to slow down the rate of patient influx into hospitals.  It is a numbers game and capacity will likely be reached everywhere unless the rate of new infections can slow down.  This does not happen with the flu.

    The kill rate is much higher than flu as well. Flu kills 1 in 10,000. This has a kill rate at the moment of 3% which appears to be the same as Spanish flu. I think the shut down is a smart message. Shame the UK is not following that at the moment, and putting half hearted measures in place to help businesses as well. 
    SumoLegosklamb
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    It certainly doesn't help that the statistics have their own flaws.  I'm going to continue to be skeptical until the testing is widespread.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

    That said, I'd rather take precautions and not put a segment of our population unnecessarily at risk.
    KungFuKennyRedbullgivesuwindsklambbpk2300datsunrobbieAstrobrickscatwrangler
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,151
    I received the following email from Toys R Us this evening.  It was also rumoured on one of the evening news reports from Toronto, that some malls may be ordered to be closed.  

    Dear Canadian Parents, Families, Friends and Gift-Givers,

    Out of an abundance of caution, we have made the decision to temporarily close our 82 stores until March 30, 2020. This decision is based on prioritizing the well-being of our customers and team members. Our online stores at toysrus.ca and babiesrus.ca remain open to serve you. We will also continue to offer our curbside pick-up service at all locations.

    At Toys"R"Us and Babies"R"Us, we want to partner with you to help your kids achieve their potential, so they grow up to be good young adults. As we navigate the days and weeks ahead we will continue to deliver on this commitment to you our loyal customers.  This decision will be reviewed on a daily basis after considering the recommendations of the Public Health Agency of Canada.


    Stay safe fellow Canadians.

    Vic Bertrand
    President & CEO

    Meh, TRU took care of this for the US when they shuttered all of their stores in the US a year ago. They apparently were just ahead of the game. :-P

    Bumblepantsgmonkey76SumoLegoKungFuKennyeggshenRedbullgivesuwindsklamb
  • RedbullgivesuwindRedbullgivesuwind Brickset's Secret HeadquatersMember Posts: 1,962
    SumoLego said:
    It certainly doesn't help that the statistics have their own flaws.  I'm going to continue to be skeptical until the testing is widespread.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

    That said, I'd rather take precautions and not put a segment of our population unnecessarily at risk.
    It baffles me that Idris Elba a man who had no symptoms is able to get hold off a test and get the results; but our healthcare workers have run out of tests. 
    gmonkey76Mr_Crossbpk2300KungFuKennyRogerKirkSalamalex
  • aapaap GermanyMember Posts: 8
    edited March 2020
    LEGO Brick and pieces has now shutdown due to the Corona virus
    I bought from B&P a week ago, parts were in the warehouse, haven't shipped yet. For me, and others in that situation, what's that mean?
     Hopefully it means they're just not accepting new orders.

    I believe it is not accepting new orders, I would be surprised if they held existing orders as pending, but you never. As always, call LEGO CS if you have Questions.
    Today I've received an email that my P&B order from 4. March is shipped :)
    KungFuKenny
  • TkattTkatt MNMember Posts: 472
    ^^Direct applications of money and celebrity seem to be beneficial.
    SumoLegoKungFuKennygmonkey76Redbullgivesuwind
  • spepperspepper Davie, FLMember Posts: 157
    I used to shop around Walmarts for LEGO deals, but now I find myself looking for milk, toilet paper, pasta, poultry, beef and vegetables...
    LittleLoriAstrobricks
  • RogerKirkRogerKirk BrightonMember Posts: 364
    edited March 2020
    SumoLego said:
    It certainly doesn't help that the statistics have their own flaws.  I'm going to continue to be skeptical until the testing is widespread.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

    That said, I'd rather take precautions and not put a segment of our population unnecessarily at risk.
    It baffles me that Idris Elba a man who had no symptoms is able to get hold off a test and get the results; but our healthcare workers have run out of tests. 
    I can't say that Idris Elba did this, but there have been private health clinics, such as on the famous Harley Street who have been selling tests to the rich and famous for £375 a time. One report suggested over 2000 tests had been carried out this way.

    Quite why the government have not stepped in to ensure these tests are directed to those in most in danger is very depressing.

    The Chief Science Advisor said the other day before the Health Select Committee that 'length of exposure' was a factor in how serious someone could get Covid-19, which appears to suggest the more around coronavirus you are, the riskier it is. This puts front line health workers and those in home-isolatation with potential but untested cases at higher risk. This makes sense and can explain why China saw several young, healthy doctors die and why a paramedic in Italy died in his 40s.

    It just feels all round we are failing healthcare workers and vulnerable individuals.
    SalamalexWookie2KungFuKennyMr_CrossRedbullgivesuwindSilverLovecatwrangler
  • GrannyLEGOGrannyLEGO FloridaMember Posts: 258
    RogerKirk said:
    SumoLego said:
    It certainly doesn't help that the statistics have their own flaws.  I'm going to continue to be skeptical until the testing is widespread.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

    That said, I'd rather take precautions and not put a segment of our population unnecessarily at risk.
    It baffles me that Idris Elba a man who had no symptoms is able to get hold off a test and get the results; but our healthcare workers have run out of tests. 
    I can't say that Idris Elba did this, but there have been private health clinics, such as on the famous Harley Street who have been selling tests to the rich and famous for £375 a time. One report suggested over 2000 tests had been carried out this way.
    It is also quite possible that these tests the rich and famous are getting are not any good or accurate. At that price there is certainly incentive to test them whether the test is any good or not!

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    I hate to say I'm nostalgic for the days of three major networks and major newspapers that actually provided proportional reporting.  Maybe I'm turning into a grouch, but it is exhausting to watch apparently insatiable sensationalism in most media outlets.  Does anyone really need a minute-by-minute rolling crawl update of infections and deaths?

    The splashy graphics on NBC at 10:45pm on March 19th tell me that there are 13,314 diagnosed cases in the US and 199 confirmed deaths.  (I don't know if these figures take into account people that have recovered - or just an accumulated number of diagnoses.)

    Nonetheless, that's a mortality rate of 0.014%. 

    H1N1 mortality rate in 2009 was somewhere around 0.001–0.011%.  The Spanish Flu of 1918 mortality rate was estimated between 3% and 5%.  (That's the worst pandemic in recent history.)

    I certainly don't want my grandmother, parents or in-laws or my kids to get the virus and become part of a terrible statistic, but I'm skeptical of media outlets treating this like the cause celebre until the next not-quite-as-serious-crisis attracts eyes and clicks. 

    (I guess we're out of school shootings, murders in Chicago, bored with impeachment and the 2020 US Presidential Election, Australia and California being on fire...)

    And then I see a story about a bunch of dumb Spring Breakers in Florida bemoaning that their plans to party might be at risk. 

    When does that sensible society in Star Trek: TNG come together?  Can I hold out until 2364?

    Anyway, be sensible.  Do something positive to offset the impulse to hoard toilet paper that you'll be stuck with until 2050...
    KungFuKennybpk2300pharmjodMr_Crossgmonkey76madforLEGOdavetheoxygenman
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    (I'm eager to see if there will be a bail out of the paper industry in 2021 when their sales go upside-down due to market oversaturation!)
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 2,567
    There's a problem with your math: the 199 confirmed deaths are just 199 so far. How many more will die? 
  • vanvonfullvanvonfull washingtonMember Posts: 180
    Math
  • ModeltrainmanModeltrainman In the Disney Infinity Toybox, Windows, or digging through LEGO parts in the USA.Member Posts: 734
    California is now under shelter in place.
  • MrJacksonMrJackson Member Posts: 444
    @SumoLego
    You absolutely nailed it. My wife is having a C-section in 3 days. Her OB office is closed. She hasn't been able to get ahold of anyone for what's supposed to be her final visit. Guess that isn't happening. The world hasn't stopped spinning. And when the PA governor's statement about businesses needing to now close instead of merely suggested to close specifically includes the statement "Beer distributors, it is important to note, may stay open" severely undermines the idea that this is actually a life or death situation. I'm not discounting the severity of the whole thing as much as questioning if the reaction hasn't been worse than the actual virus. This has gotten completely out of proportion. 
    SumoLegogmonkey76
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,188
    SumoLego said:
    The splashy graphics on NBC at 10:45pm on March 19th tell me that there are 13,314 diagnosed cases in the US and 199 confirmed deaths.  (I don't know if these figures take into account people that have recovered - or just an accumulated number of diagnoses.)

    Nonetheless, that's a mortality rate of 0.014%. 

    H1N1 mortality rate in 2009 was somewhere around 0.001–0.011%.  The Spanish Flu of 1918 mortality rate was estimated between 3% and 5%.  (That's the worst pandemic in recent history.)
    Sorry the math is off...
    (199/13314)*100%=1.49%
    SumoLegoAstrobricksRogerKirk
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,188
    COVID-19 global case fatality rate 3/19/2020
    (10048/246,444)*100%=4.1%
    SumoLego
  • vanvonfullvanvonfull washingtonMember Posts: 180
    Math
    CCC said:
    s
    Nice. 

    I agree with sumo that the media is going to suck this dry - that’s what they do. 

    but with proper math (as mentioned above, the death rate quoted was off by a factor of 100) we are looking at an epidemic that is as scary as the Spanish flu. Based on estimates. 

    There’s also an inherent problem with calculating death rate at a moment of time of an outbreak. For example, if it takes 7 days to die from a virus we should be looking at deaths today divided by # of cases 7 days ago since many cases announced in the last 7 days would still be unresolved (they haven’t died or recovered yet). This suggests the death rate is underestimated. 

    On the other hand, if there’s not widespread testing, we don’t have an accurate picture of those among us with the virus that lack symptoms and haven’t been seen/tested because of it. This suggests the death rate could be overestimated.

    Since the US numbers are still in their infancy, I would look towards numbers like vwong19 has, since he is looking at an estimation of global impact. Again, merely estimations. I’ve seen conservative numbers from 0.25% to 3% and either way that still worries me. 

    With these things considered, i’ll Reiterate my stance that you shouldn’t listen to me ;)

    Also I feel bad for MrJackson (my wife is pregnant too right now) - I hope she get can get the care she needs. 

    Now I’m wondering are we overreacting now because we didn’t react in a timely manner when we should have? I dunno. 

    We we are in for a wild ride. 



    panchox1
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    ^ Yes - that is correct.  1.4%, I spent too much time trying to parse raw data.

    Nonetheless, I would expect the infection rate to balloon once widespread testing is available, and the mortality rate to decrease.  (With actual deaths to increase as well.)

    I'm sure there were many people that died of the virus that are unaccounted for, and people who were infected and recovered.

    I am hoping that the very different procedures being employed in New York and the UK can give us better insight into how to best combat a pandemic.  
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    The death rate for covid-19 is likely way below 1.4% in the USA because we have no idea how many are infected. It's guaranteed to be exponentially more than 14,000 infected right now though. Most likely by several orders or magnitude. Both deaths and confirmed cases will increase. We just have no idea how much. If the same number or people that get the flu every year also get this, and the death rate is at even 0.5%, we are still looking at something like 220,000 dead in the USA alone. It is serious. The media is milking it. Many lives not lost will be economically ruined I think. Stay calm. Be kind to each other.
    KungFuKennySumoLegogmonkey76MaffyD
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,219
    Also why the relative rates between pandemics or infections/epidemics need to be compared using consistent figures.

    And media-wise, they're always looking for the BIGGEST numbers, so I presume deaths and infections are a running tally from the initial identification of the strain.

    (Try to find reporting of the rate of negative tests.  It's not splashy, sexy or attention-getting to report that less people test positive.)
    davetheoxygenman
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 4,494
    The media always obsesses over disasters, so that shouldn’t surprise anyone. But if you pay attention as much as they want you to - constantly that is - you’ll go insane and won’t be able to function. I can’t say I’m much good at following my own advice, but it might help your mental state to only check in on the news once daily. Otherwise, try to work on/think about other things.

    The other thing I try to remind myself of is that I cannot completely eliminate risk, no matter what I do. 
    andhedavetheoxygenman
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    You can't compute fatality rate BEFORE this is all done? Millions of people could have this right now and not show symptoms. It is much LESS deadly than the flu.
    davetheoxygenman
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 505
    You can't compute fatality rate BEFORE this is all done? Millions of people could have this right now and not show symptoms. It is much LESS deadly than the flu.
    You propose that fatality rate can't be calculated until it's all done (which I agree with), and follow that with the conclusion that it is much less deadly than the flu.  Hard to reach that conclusion with available data, unless I am missing something.
    SumoLegoAstrobrickspharmjodjmeninnodavetheoxygenmandatsunrobbiepanchox1ReesesPieces
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