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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • jnscoelhojnscoelho PortugalMember Posts: 460
    I guess we'll have to wait to know. 
  • milambermilamber Norfolk UKMember Posts: 614
    Not retired in the UK yet. Wish it would :)
  • jnscoelhojnscoelho PortugalMember Posts: 460
    It doesn't say retired, but it's OOS and may not return, as usual during this time of year for many of the sets being retired.
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 408
    The Holiday Train is the worst looking holiday set IMO and I hope it goes.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 902
    I was shocked to see it last this year tbh as the station retired last year
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 705
    It obviously has been selling well.
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 635
    ^ I thought they always generally lasted 2 years & were done.  I wonder about #10263 & thinking we might need to pick that one up before too long to have in the village.  I’m not sure there are many that go into a 3rd season.  Surely the train in season 4 is an anomaly.
    gmonkey76
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    jnscoelho said:
    It doesn't say retired, but it's OOS and may not return, as usual during this time of year for many of the sets being retired.
    If you are speaking of the #10254 Holiday train, in the US it says retired product and had a retiring soon tag on it. It is rare that something retires in the US but not in another region, so it is likely on its last days.

  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 809
    M1J0E said:
    ^ I thought they always generally lasted 2 years & were done.  I wonder about #10263 & thinking we might need to pick that one up before too long to have in the village.  I’m not sure there are many that go into a 3rd season.  Surely the train in season 4 is an anomaly.

    The train and station complementing each other might be part of the reason why the former has stuck around. After all, it might be harder to move copies of the station if there weren't a train available to go with it. I imagine they'll try to retire both of them around the same time.
    M1J0E
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 635
    ^ True, most likely yes.  But I’m sure I never even saw the station in stock this year again.  Which means it’s possible the train outlived it.  
  • milambermilamber Norfolk UKMember Posts: 614
    In the UK the station is definitely retired - last year I think. The Winter Train is still currently going strong. Whilst OOS at Lego online there isn't anything to indicate it's retiring yet. John Lewis, the other official stockist, still have plenty of stock
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,563
    The Station retired late 2018, and the Train was still available up until a few weeks ago.
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 705
    Downtown Diner hasn't retired has it? I ordered it from Amazon when it was on sale, and instead they sent me the Jurassic World Dino Mech set. Of course when I tried to return it, all I could get was my money back because they were out of stock.
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,295
    The set isn't even two years old, and I doubt would retire before Assembly Square. Australian [email protected] has it on backorder, meaning we're still fine, at least.
    madforLEGO
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 635
    Plus they show it on the back of the box of the newest bookshop as well.  Could AS be the next one to retire?  There’s never any guarantees on their timing, but it is the oldest modular left on the market.  BS brought the price point back down much closer to PR, so they no longer need that one as the ‘cheap’ modular.  AS really does serve as a flagship modular though being the most expensive & largest, but also seems to have good popularity.
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,295
    edited December 2019
    After some thought, I think it's a coin toss over whether AS or DD will retire first. I suppose we won't find out for sure until this time next year, given PR is the one making room for BS.

    Edit: I made this post and my last post both at exactly 9:35. Nice.
    M1J0E
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,136
    I think I've left it too long to get #10257 Carousel, as none seem to be available online or in stores.
    There was some speculation about it a little way up in this thread, but do we have any confirmation as to whether it has retired?
  • DB361DB361 UKMember Posts: 236
    ^ Try Smyths if you have one nearby - not appearing on their website, but there was at least one or two left at Exeter the other day.
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,136
    Thanks, @DB361 I might have to give it a go.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 902
    edited December 2019
    One in smyths shop about 2 weeks ago near me but it was the battered one no one wanted
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    Interesting 10220 is showing as 'Sold out', While not showing as 'retired product' I wonder if this is panic buying thinking that the VW camper van is gone (as the VW Beetle is also showing as 'sold out'), or is it really gone?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,563
    I briefly felt the same panic when the Stranger Things set went to 'Out of Stock'.  

    I will say that the Carousel appears to be imminently retiring...
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,136
    Carousel has gone, I believe. A friend checked for me in the UK Bluewater Lego store, which had none left, and the assistant confirmed that it had retired.
    SumoLego
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    I think the Carousel was listed as retiring soon at some point, but if you check the #10254 holiday train, the minute it sold out its status turned to 'Retired product'. Does that mean the Carousel is coming back? Unlikely, unless only as a brief availability to clear out any remaining stock.
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 519
    I realize the title says sets but can we talk about figures specifically? I've noticed that. a lot of the obscure star wars figures appreciate really nicely and the other day I was just thinking I should scoop up some of the basketball figures that were iconic (shaq kobe etc). Decided against it and kobe is now gone on bricklink in light of his really terrible accident.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    Yeah, Bryant's price and sales volume has rocketed over the past day. Give it a year, and no doubt it will settle back down again. It is strange how people didn't want them a month ago but now do as he has died. It is not like LEGO were ever going to do him again, at least in that way, so his death has probably not changed anything in terms of LEGO.
    madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,886
    I saw that most BL stock was intact early yesterday evening. Thought about it, and decided my soul was worth keeping. 
    Jackad7
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 519
    Yeah I'd bet you're right. There really was no way he was getting another figure regardless. 

    But not to digress too far what are some figures you guys would pick up? For example rebels ahsoka, queen amidala, old watto are all figures that appeared in not very popular sets and appreciated nicely (age helped watto). Just curious if you guys had anything else in mind? I've picked up an extra set of rogue one figures since they were phased out quick and some unique aliens in higher end sets that arent overly special like max rebo from the sail barge.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    The Harry and Ron in their Christmas sweaters might do well. They are cheap and plentiful right now and I doubt they will be redone for a while.
    Jackad7
  • parisianlegoparisianlego TexasMember Posts: 4
    Hi all! New poster here...

    Do you think the Parisian Restaurant will increase in value now that it's both discontinued and sold out? It seems to be the most liked set in the series, but it also sold for 5-6 years, so I'm sure there a ton of them out there.

    Amazon sold out of them just 3 days or so ago, and the price has been steadily rising since then, from $159 up to $199 now.
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 519
    Hi all! New poster here...

    Do you think the Parisian Restaurant will increase in value now that it's both discontinued and sold out? It seems to be the most liked set in the series, but it also sold for 5-6 years, so I'm sure there a ton of them out there.

    Amazon sold out of them just 3 days or so ago, and the price has been steadily rising since then, from $159 up to $199 now.
    With that name and this being your only post, I would like to humbly inquire as to the quantity of parisian restaurants you have stockpiled.
    BumblepantsKungFuKennyshikadisid3windrOubirdSnizzlebutts
  • parisianlegoparisianlego TexasMember Posts: 4
    edited February 20
    Haha, I made this account to ask about it, but I don't have a stockpile. I do have two (in case I want to build the MOC that combines them) and do plan to sell them sometime down the line. I bought just a few days before Amazon sold out and have been watching the price since. They were the last retailer with any stock it seems like.

    I don't know nearly enough about Lego to try to "invest". I'd have a house full of lego and do worse than the S&P 500 I'm sure.
    SumoLegoJackad7sid3windr
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,563
    My thoughts - the set was available for years and comparatively speaking, I would assume its long life translates into more copies available in the secondary market.

    I don't think there was a panic when the set retired, so the modest bump doesn't impress me for future appreciation at some disproportionate rate.

    Also, I have little doubt that the Creator folks will do another set with a similar architectural style.
    gmonkey76KungFuKennyparisianlego
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 519
    Just wanted to poke fun :P I tell people my LEGO is an investment all the time, I just never plan to sell it haha.

    But I dont expect much either as far as the parisian goes. Itll hold its value but I dont see it increasing more given how long it was around and how saturated the market is.
    parisianlego
  • vanvonfullvanvonfull washingtonMember Posts: 38
    I’m half way through building the Parisian right now. It was nice it got discounted before retirement on [email protected] And I appreciated the “secret” message on the ground floor

    But I can’t fathom storing multiple copies of a set like this in my little abode.
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 199
    I just feel alot of people are jumping on the Lego worth more than gold bandwagon and will be sorely disappointed in a few years when they come to sell their sets only to find that there are hundreds of the same set all over sites like ebay.
    When the media started beating up Lego worth more than gold articles due to some sets skyrocketing in value it set off a must get and store Lego fad.
    They will get their money back on these sets and probably a profit but not to the extent that they dreamed when they bought the set(s).
    VorpalRyujnscoelhoRonyargmonkey76
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    Especially by the time you have shipped it and paid any fees, the profit will be significantly lower than you think.
    VorpalRyuSumoLegoJackad7Ronyargmonkey76
  • parisianlegoparisianlego TexasMember Posts: 4
    I just feel alot of people are jumping on the Lego worth more than gold bandwagon and will be sorely disappointed in a few years when they come to sell their sets only to find that there are hundreds of the same set all over sites like ebay.
    When the media started beating up Lego worth more than gold articles due to some sets skyrocketing in value it set off a must get and store Lego fad.
    They will get their money back on these sets and probably a profit but not to the extent that they dreamed when they bought the set(s).
    A rule of thumb that would serve most people well is if people are calling something an investment-worthy collectible while its still being manufactured and sold then it isn’t one. 

    Baseball cards are the classic example for me. If you have some from when they were trash in a bubble gum wrapper, you’re rich. If you have some from the late 80’s/early 90s when they were an “investment” they’re now worth more as cardboard than as baseball cards. 
    SumoLegoCharmiefcbgmonkey76
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    I just feel alot of people are jumping on the Lego worth more than gold bandwagon and will be sorely disappointed in a few years when they come to sell their sets only to find that there are hundreds of the same set all over sites like ebay.
    When the media started beating up Lego worth more than gold articles due to some sets skyrocketing in value it set off a must get and store Lego fad.
    They will get their money back on these sets and probably a profit but not to the extent that they dreamed when they bought the set(s).
    A rule of thumb that would serve most people well is if people are calling something an investment-worthy collectible while its still being manufactured and sold then it isn’t one. 

    Baseball cards are the classic example for me. If you have some from when they were trash in a bubble gum wrapper, you’re rich. If you have some from the late 80’s/early 90s when they were an “investment” they’re now worth more as cardboard than as baseball cards. 
    This doesn't really hold up for LEGO though. New sealed LEGO sets rarely drop significantly in value compare to their retail value. Even heavily used sets hold their value pretty well.

    SumoLegoCharmiefcbpharmjod
  • parisianlegoparisianlego TexasMember Posts: 4
    I guess the baseball card example wouldn't compare, but "holding its value" isn't really investment-worthy when the stock market returns 7-10% historically and doesn't take up your whole basement.

    But I did spend money on those sets that I wouldn't otherwise based on the fact that I can probably get at least 80% of my money back when I sell them.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    Holding value is fine, for the worst performers, when combined with better performers. In the past many sets have been better performers whereas now more are just about OK. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,563
    pxchris said:
    I invest in LEGO.

    By which I mean that I put my money into LEGO for which I personally get tremendous returns of enjoyment and satisfaction.
    Do you buy that by the pound?
  • pxchrispxchris Oregon, USAMember Posts: 669
    SumoLego said:

    Do you buy that by the pound?
    I typically trade in units of PPP - price per piece.
  • 560Heliport560Heliport Twin Cities, MN, USAMember Posts: 1,169
    I value LEGO by coolness. If it's cool (and I can afford it) I buy it. I don't intend to sell anything.
    gmonkey76klinton
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,563
    I'd like to sell you some slightly used 'enjoyment and satisfaction'.

    No box or instructions.
    VorpalRyupxchrisJackad7Ronyar
  • DB361DB361 UKMember Posts: 236
    For selling sets, the days of making big bucks off a single set are almost long gone, but you can still fluke your way into a nice little earner (see some unexpectedly short lived 2018 BrickHeadz, for example). But the key word there is 'fluke', and absolutely isn't a good way to run a business. For me, it's all about buying at the right price. I might only sell a set at RRP, but if I've paid 75% off for it, then I'm more than happy.
  • JMasterJMaster USAMember Posts: 14
    This set won't come out till September, but do you think it'd be a good idea to save a mint Razor's Crest? As a long-term investment, of course...
  • BrickByBrickBrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 659
    ^I think everyone's going to do that which will prevent it from appreciating. 
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,155
    Given time the novelty and memeification of Baby Yoda will probably wear off some and it won't be quite the thing it is right now. Depending on how long the show goes on 2-3 years down the line Lego might release a much cheaper set with a better Child or Mando and undercut the value of this set. That said, the model looks fantastic and it should hold value.

    Overall I just don't see investing in Star Wars as a good ROI anymore as far too many people do the same now.
    SumoLegomadforLEGOVorpalRyugmonkey76bpk2300
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