Shopping at LEGO or Amazon?
Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

1663664665667669

Comments

  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,266
    ^ Depends on what you want to compare it to: do you want to exclude outliers like #10182? Promos? Regular sets that nobody really invests in? Do you adjust for inflation? To what degree do you factor in the demand for the set? I don't think it's useful to consider an overall average ROI. Instead compare it to sets in a similar context. I care how well the new Falcon is doing versus the old Falcon, but it's useless to consider how well a 2012 Friends set is doing against an AFOL Designer Program set.
    Anyway, this thread has lingered on 666 for far too long. Perhaps we're cursed...
    M1J0E
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 515
    ^ Thanks for breaking the curse!  But yes agreed it’s very difficult I would think to determine an ‘average’ ROI.  My only rule of thumb is try to buy what you really want during their retail run, as MSRP (along with any common enough sales) seems to set the floor price in the aftermarket.  And even if the percentage increase of similar theme/era sets are close, the more expensive sets will feel to have appreciated more in the aftermarket if that makes sense, because the same percent increase will wind up in a greater actual dollar outlay.
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 515
    One thing I have to be sure throws off any kind of average ROI, is minifigs.  I ordered #76, primarily needing an impulse purchase to get another rocket ride, but also thinking it’s a cool set based on great figs, and making a great display for any figs you might choose to put in it.  I knew I wouldn’t want to face aftermarket prices for this one, as I’ve discovered that the minifig values for a rare iron man can be anywhere from 60%-95% of the set value from which it was pulled!  I knew collecting iron men was a thing, but I had no idea that some sets would be virtually worthless without the fig in them.  I’m thinking this has to be something specific to licensed themes with recognizable characters.  Does it affect Star Wars as well (a theme I know nothing about)?  I checked Scooby Doo (a discontinued licensed theme) for comparison, & the only fig that seems to make up a significant portion of set value is Velma, & the mystery mansion seems to be a well valued set in it’s own right as a model.  
    SumoLego
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,266
    Crap! I didn't mean to do that.
    But yeah, buying five sets on clearance for $20 that hit $35 on the aftermarket is better than getting a single $100 set at MSRP and selling it for $150. But then, those small sets mightn't do better than $25 each. I've been surprised at the inflation of a few cheap, run-of-the-mill Star Wars sets. On the other hand, with larger sets you only need to sell one item, and they tend to have greater demand than smaller sets, so they're both easier and less risky for novice investors.
    M1J0E
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 515
    ^ Now that’s true.  It can be very hit/miss with the smaller sets when you look at aftermarket pricing, even in themes like city that you expect not to appreciate any considerable amount.  As always, if you could predict the market with certainty you’d be out there buying up every clearance set small or large of the ones you knew would work out down the line.
    Baby_Yoda
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,020
    I placed an order once for a set I wasn't really interested in, but added it as a way of getting a GWP thinking I could probably get my money back on it when necessary. The Mars Rover. I've still got it somewhere. It will probably be my best percentage ROI on a set, outside of CMFs.
    dmcc0VorpalRyuM1J0EBaby_Yoda
  • benbacardibenbacardi EnglandMember Posts: 418
    ^ Well, if you're ever up for selling it, let me know what you'd want 😉 
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,546
    M1J0E said:
    One thing I have to be sure throws off any kind of average ROI, is minifigs.  I ordered #76, primarily needing an impulse purchase to get another rocket ride, 
    That #76 is super rare ;)
    M1J0EBaby_Yoda
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 515
    M1J0E said:
    One thing I have to be sure throws off any kind of average ROI, is minifigs.  I ordered #76, primarily needing an impulse purchase to get another rocket ride, 
    That #76 is super rare ;)
    Haha! :D. So so rare!  Not even brickset has managed to uncover a set pic yet, let alone piece count, or RRP.  But I assure you, if it were for sale, my ROI would surely beat even the Mars Rover! :D. 

    Ok I’m still laughing about this now, but what I meant was #76125.  Hall of Armor.  I expect an ROI slightly less than #76 though.  
    Of course I had to see what typing in #76 might bring up if not a set number...
    https://www.bricklink.com/catalogItemIn.asp?P=18603c76pb01&in=S

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    I dunno, sets like the #21310 Fishing store, #10251 Brick bank and #10246 detectives office seem to be doing well in the after market, though #10218 Pet Shop is a bit stagnant, which I am a bit surprised by, given its versatility.
    Plus it is summer, so in my experience the buying typically winds down a bit due to summer and outside activities (and LEGO typically does not retire items during the beginning of the year where stocks would run out around June, July, August, Sept, and Oct.)

    I do wonder about the #10255 Assembly Square and #70620 Ninjago City and how much longer they are staying around as I think another thing is that with LEGO discontinuing the Brick Bank and Detective office it really shows that nothing is beholden to a set schedule.. roughly two year run and anything after is bonus I think (though I think Ideas is still about a 2 year run, at least for now).. Heck the VW Camper van and Tower bridge are still around, and this is, what, the 9th year of the tower bridge?

    (That and I still really  want to get a Ninjago City, but my 'double points' buys tonight are going toward a Dragon Boat race or two)

    BumblepantsSumoLegoM1J0EDeeC2_Josh
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,266
    edited July 1
    ^ Those three aren't doing so well here in Australia at least, which is odd. The only set for which a quick Google search doesn't show a few <MSRP listings is #10246, and even then the top item is only maybe A$20 over. But as a buyer I'm not complaining...
    Koolbrix2018
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,946
    Nearly the entire LM2 line has gone clearance on [email protected] in the US including the newer ones. Makes me wonder if the final mini wave will be cut short with low production numbers
    SumoLegoTXLegoguyKoolbrix2018
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,261
    Kmart over here recently threw practically all the LM2 sets on clearance & today I discovered that [email protected] also has them at discounted prices, so yeah, I'd say LM2 isn't performing as well as expected. If all of this is any indication, you may be right, @Bumblepants, we may see the final wave cut down or dropped completely.
    Baby_YodaKoolbrix2018
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,266
    I saw TLM2 sets being clearanced before they were even supposed to be released.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,179
    I would say likely not - as those sets were/have probably been produced.  And the margins are much, much lower on a 'house' product.  I'm fairly sure they're unconcerned with discounts on already-produced TLM2 product.  

    But they'll definitely not be any second runs of any of these sets.  And I'm sure they already changed whatever production they had planned a bunch of months ago when the movie and the first wave of sets didn't perform as they expected.

    (Again, assuming they didn't perform as well.  Since LEGO doesn't share sales or production numbers...)
    LyichirVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,020
    SumoLego said:
    I would say likely not - as those sets were/have probably been produced.  And the margins are much, much lower on a 'house' product.  I'm fairly sure they're unconcerned with discounts on already-produced TLM2 product.  

    But they'll definitely not be any second runs of any of these sets.  And I'm sure they already changed whatever production they had planned a bunch of months ago when the movie and the first wave of sets didn't perform as they expected.

    (Again, assuming they didn't perform as well.  Since LEGO doesn't share sales or production numbers...)
    There definitely seems to be less buzz about the movie this time. It seems to be taken as just another LEGO movie after The LEGO Movie, Batman, Ninjago, ... whereas there was a lot of talk about the first one.

    But yeah, sets will have already been produced and stores will have placed their orders long ago.

    LyichirSumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • klintonklinton CanadaMember Posts: 717
    edited July 1
    I'm starting to suspect that the TLM2 sets only sold really well here in Canada. Even now, [email protected] still has  them all at full price here, while they're on sale in every other country. It feels a bit exploitive, tbh. :p
    VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,179
    CCC said:
    But yeah, sets will have already been produced and stores will have placed their orders long ago.
    The nonsense with the short-run of TLM2 Brickheadz would strongly indicate that this theme performed below their expectations.  But - that could be ascribed to Brickheadz, and not necessarily TLM2.  

    (And, of course, we have no idea what said expectations were, either.)
    VorpalRyu
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 746
    SumoLego said:
    CCC said:
    But yeah, sets will have already been produced and stores will have placed their orders long ago.
    The nonsense with the short-run of TLM2 Brickheadz would strongly indicate that this theme performed below their expectations.  But - that could be ascribed to Brickheadz, and not necessarily TLM2.  

    (And, of course, we have no idea what said expectations were, either.)
    The short-run of BrickHeadz seems like it would be a fluke regardless of either theme's performance, to be honest—I've seen speculation that they were designed as event-exclusives for NYCC last year but Lego ended up not attending that convention, hence the production quantity having more in common with event exclusives than with normal set releases or even promos.
    SumoLegoAanchirVorpalRyupharmjodgmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,179
    There haven't really been any new Brickheadz since the end of last year.  So who knows when they really cancelled the Brickheadz theme.

    Does anyone know if the SDCC Brickheadz (Dr. Strange, etc.) had a similar production run as TLM2 Brickheadz?
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,822
    SumoLego said:
    There haven't really been any new Brickheadz since the end of last year.  So who knows when they really cancelled the Brickheadz theme.

    Does anyone know if the SDCC Brickheadz (Dr. Strange, etc.) had a similar production run as TLM2 Brickheadz?
    Well, there are this year's seasonal BrickHeadz, of which some have been released and others are still yet to be released.
    Also, in an interview Zusammengebaut conducted with Marcos Bessa (lead designer on BrickHeadz), Marcos says that the BrickHeadz are not finished, and that they specifically chose to start with as many IPs as they could pull from their licensing portfolio in order to cast as wide a net for potential buyers as possible and get the BrickHeadz widely recognized as a new LEGO design standard. Apparently there are already new IP character Brickheadz planned for the future, but from now on they will be released sporadically and not in huge waves like before.
    The bit of the interview about BrickHeadz begins at about 00:11:30

  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 1,648
    ^But they haven't cancelled the BH theme, right? We're getting all sorts of new ones. Lady Liberty and...the...other one???
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,179
    I would posit that those seasonal Brickheadz were already produced for the 2019 lineup.  Along with the novelty Clown and Lady Liberty.

    But it is a truly bad sign when Disney-themed product and SW-themed product each have an abruptly discontinued production run.  And a character-driven in-house product has a limited run.

    Not that I don't doubt Mr. Bessa's comments, as he would be a true 'insider', but there's all sorts of ways to stretch marketing jargon...
    pharmjodSwitchfoot55
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    SumoLego said:

    Not that I don't doubt Mr. Bessa's comments, as he would be a true 'insider', but there's all sorts of ways to stretch marketing jargon...

    Nailed it. I don't believe for a second we will see anything more than one offs with any future brickheadz. As far as licensed ones go, my prediction is trolls and minions as they lend themselves to the style. I don't know that any retailers want to order them as they had to clearance nearly every one to move. If we do see more they will likely be LEGO store and SAH exclusives. I hope I'm wrong though.
    SumoLegoBumblepants
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,546
    SumoLego said:
    I would posit that those seasonal Brickheadz were already produced for the 2019 lineup.  Along with the novelty Clown and Lady Liberty.

    But it is a truly bad sign when Disney-themed product and SW-themed product each have an abruptly discontinued production run.  And a character-driven in-house product has a limited run.

    Not that I don't doubt Mr. Bessa's comments, as he would be a true 'insider', but there's all sorts of ways to stretch marketing jargon...
    Not that you don’t doubt?
    SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,179
    edited July 2
    Well, 'do doubt' would sound funny.  And it looks like 'dodo u butt'.
    pharmjod said:
    Nailed it.
    Nailed it!  Likewise.
    im2cre8iv
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 1,648
    And "No Doubt" is so mid-2000's.

    But, they may do well on the Secondary Market. So, still relevant to the discussion at hand. 

    Hey, LEGO should do a series of No Doubt Brickheadz to really pump some juice back into the line!
    BumblepantsSumoLegoBaby_YodaM1J0E
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,946
    And "No Doubt" is so mid-2000's.

    But, they may do well on the Secondary Market. So, still relevant to the discussion at hand. 

    Hey, LEGO should do a series of No Doubt Brickheadz to really pump some juice back into the line!
    That idea isn't Hellagood.
    Switchfoot55SumoLegoBaby_YodaM1J0EOubird
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,020
    And "No Doubt" is so mid-2000's.

    Weren't they more early 90s?

    klintonPitfall69Oubird
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,179
    True Dat!
  • seppo21seppo21 Member Posts: 7
    Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?
    TXLegoguy
  • M1J0EM1J0E Calgary, ABMember Posts: 515
    seppo21 said:
    Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?
    I’m assuming it must still have strong shelf appeal in store & sales to match!  We bought that set what seems like forever ago now in case it was discontinued earlier. But it seems to have great life!  I hope the ‘retiring soon tag’ on [email protected] is accurate as that’s what I go by & it doesn’t show the castle yet. 
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,546
    M1J0E said:
    seppo21 said:
    Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?
    I’m assuming it must still have strong shelf appeal in store & sales to match!  We bought that set what seems like forever ago now in case it was discontinued earlier. But it seems to have great life!  I hope the ‘retiring soon tag’ on [email protected] is accurate as that’s what I go by & it doesn’t show the castle yet. 
    I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the next Tower Bridge.
    VorpalRyupharmjodM1J0EPitfall69
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 831
    With all the recent discounts, is the end near for...
    #10257 Carousel 
    #10243 Parisian restaurant 
    #21311 voltron 
    #70840 apocalypseburg
    #70620 Ninjago city
    #70657 ninjago docks

    ?  How do you think each will do in the after market?  I believe the #10243 and maybe the #10257 have the most potential since is appeals to the widest audience.
    SumoLego
  • OubirdOubird OklahomaMember Posts: 51
    I think Voltron with at least Appreciate by 50%, and I also just got on sale this weekend, So there’s that too.  Still might be on amazon prime sale for another hour now
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,266
    I bet #70620 will do well, since it's always been difficult to acquire due to its high price point and being a Lego exclusive. On the other hand, I still want it. So, if I wish really hard for it to stay at A$500 til I have the money, it might not appreciate at all.
  • kbwkbw NCMember Posts: 402
    The carousel and the PR both have “retiring soon” stickers on them at my local store
    SumoLegoAstrobricksgmonkey76CurvedRoadPlate
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.
  • AstrobricksAstrobricks Minnesota, USMember Posts: 2,546
    Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.
    Where did you hear this sound?
    Pitfall69KungFuKenny
  • madejp86madejp86 IllinoisMember Posts: 254
    Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.
    Where did you hear this sound?
    https://www.thebrickfan.com/retiring-lego-sets-july-2019/
    AstrobricksmadforLEGODeeC2_Josh
  • CharmiefcbCharmiefcb SydneyMember Posts: 155
    I really thought Assembly Square would have a longer lifespan than 2 years.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,261
    I really thought Assembly Square would have a longer lifespan than 2 years.
    Town Hall v2.0
    FollowsCloselyPapaBear
  • KeilupKeilup Frisco, TXMember Posts: 150
    madejp86 said:
    Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.
    Where did you hear this sound?
    https://www.thebrickfan.com/retiring-lego-sets-july-2019/
    Page doesn’t exist. I didn’t find it. Did they pull the article?
  • Baby_YodaBaby_Yoda The world's backsideMember Posts: 1,266
    ^ Must have. It was working yesterday.
    madforLEGO
  • amokamok Istanbul, TurkeyMember Posts: 37
    I'm sure Assembly Square will stay around for a couple more years...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    Don't be so sure.
    SumoLegomadforLEGOgmonkey76Baby_YodaVorpalRyuKungFuKennyAlmington
Sign In or Register to comment.

Shopping at LEGO.com or Amazon?

Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon

Recent discussions Categories Privacy Policy

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.

As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.