Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Baby_Yoda · June 2019

Crap! I didn't mean to do that.
But yeah, buying five sets on clearance for $20 that hit $35 on the aftermarket is better than getting a single $100 set at MSRP and selling it for $150. But then, those small sets mightn't do better than $25 each. I've been surprised at the inflation of a few cheap, run-of-the-mill Star Wars sets. On the other hand, with larger sets you only need to sell one item, and they tend to have greater demand than smaller sets, so they're both easier and less risky for novice investors.

M1J0E · June 2019

^ Now that’s true. It can be very hit/miss with the smaller sets when you look at aftermarket pricing, even in themes like city that you expect not to appreciate any considerable amount. As always, if you could predict the market with certainty you’d be out there buying up every clearance set small or large of the ones you knew would work out down the line.

CCC · June 2019

I placed an order once for a set I wasn't really interested in, but added it as a way of getting a GWP thinking I could probably get my money back on it when necessary. The Mars Rover. I've still got it somewhere. It will probably be my best percentage ROI on a set, outside of CMFs.

benbacardi · June 2019

^ Well, if you're ever up for selling it, let me know what you'd want 😉

Astrobricks · June 2019

M1J0E said:

One thing I have to be sure throws off any kind of average ROI, is minifigs. I ordered #76, primarily needing an impulse purchase to get another rocket ride,

That #76 is super rare ;)

M1J0E · June 2019

Astrobricks said:

M1J0E said:

One thing I have to be sure throws off any kind of average ROI, is minifigs. I ordered #76, primarily needing an impulse purchase to get another rocket ride,

That #76 is super rare ;)

Haha! :D. So so rare! Not even brickset has managed to uncover a set pic yet, let alone piece count, or RRP. But I assure you, if it were for sale, my ROI would surely beat even the Mars Rover! :D.

Ok I’m still laughing about this now, but what I meant was #76125. Hall of Armor. I expect an ROI slightly less than #76 though.
Of course I had to see what typing in #76 might bring up if not a set number...
https://www.bricklink.com/catalogItemIn.asp?P=18603c76pb01&in=S

FollowsClosely · June 2019

This thread is more alive than the secondary market.

madforLEGO · June 2019

I dunno, sets like the #21310 Fishing store, #10251 Brick bank and #10246 detectives office seem to be doing well in the after market, though #10218 Pet Shop is a bit stagnant, which I am a bit surprised by, given its versatility.

Plus it is summer, so in my experience the buying typically winds down a bit due to summer and outside activities (and LEGO typically does not retire items during the beginning of the year where stocks would run out around June, July, August, Sept, and Oct.)

I do wonder about the #10255 Assembly Square and #70620 Ninjago City and how much longer they are staying around as I think another thing is that with LEGO discontinuing the Brick Bank and Detective office it really shows that nothing is beholden to a set schedule.. roughly two year run and anything after is bonus I think (though I think Ideas is still about a 2 year run, at least for now).. Heck the VW Camper van and Tower bridge are still around, and this is, what, the 9th year of the tower bridge?

(That and I still really want to get a Ninjago City, but my 'double points' buys tonight are going toward a Dragon Boat race or two)

Baby_Yoda · July 2019

^ Those three aren't doing so well here in Australia at least, which is odd. The only set for which a quick Google search doesn't show a few <MSRP listings is #10246, and even then the top item is only maybe A$20 over. But as a buyer I'm not complaining...

Bumblepants · July 2019

Nearly the entire LM2 line has gone clearance on [email protected] in the US including the newer ones. Makes me wonder if the final mini wave will be cut short with low production numbers

VorpalRyu · July 2019

Kmart over here recently threw practically all the LM2 sets on clearance & today I discovered that [email protected] also has them at discounted prices, so yeah, I'd say LM2 isn't performing as well as expected. If all of this is any indication, you may be right, @Bumblepants, we may see the final wave cut down or dropped completely.

Baby_Yoda · July 2019

I saw TLM2 sets being clearanced before they were even supposed to be released.

SumoLego · July 2019

I would say likely not - as those sets were/have probably been produced. And the margins are much, much lower on a 'house' product. I'm fairly sure they're unconcerned with discounts on already-produced TLM2 product.

But they'll definitely not be any second runs of any of these sets. And I'm sure they already changed whatever production they had planned a bunch of months ago when the movie and the first wave of sets didn't perform as they expected.

(Again, assuming they didn't perform as well. Since LEGO doesn't share sales or production numbers...)

CCC · July 2019

SumoLego said:

I would say likely not - as those sets were/have probably been produced. And the margins are much, much lower on a 'house' product. I'm fairly sure they're unconcerned with discounts on already-produced TLM2 product.

But they'll definitely not be any second runs of any of these sets. And I'm sure they already changed whatever production they had planned a bunch of months ago when the movie and the first wave of sets didn't perform as they expected.

(Again, assuming they didn't perform as well. Since LEGO doesn't share sales or production numbers...)

There definitely seems to be less buzz about the movie this time. It seems to be taken as just another LEGO movie after The LEGO Movie, Batman, Ninjago, ... whereas there was a lot of talk about the first one.

But yeah, sets will have already been produced and stores will have placed their orders long ago.

klinton · July 2019

I'm starting to suspect that the TLM2 sets only sold really well here in Canada. Even now, [email protected] still has them all at full price here, while they're on sale in every other country. It feels a bit exploitive, tbh. :p

SumoLego · July 2019

CCC said:
But yeah, sets will have already been produced and stores will have placed their orders long ago.

The nonsense with the short-run of TLM2 Brickheadz would strongly indicate that this theme performed below their expectations. But - that could be ascribed to Brickheadz, and not necessarily TLM2.

(And, of course, we have no idea what said expectations were, either.)

Lyichir · July 2019

SumoLego said:

CCC said:
But yeah, sets will have already been produced and stores will have placed their orders long ago.

The nonsense with the short-run of TLM2 Brickheadz would strongly indicate that this theme performed below their expectations. But - that could be ascribed to Brickheadz, and not necessarily TLM2.

(And, of course, we have no idea what said expectations were, either.)

The short-run of BrickHeadz seems like it would be a fluke regardless of either theme's performance, to be honest—I've seen speculation that they were designed as event-exclusives for NYCC last year but Lego ended up not attending that convention, hence the production quantity having more in common with event exclusives than with normal set releases or even promos.

SumoLego · July 2019

There haven't really been any new Brickheadz since the end of last year. So who knows when they really cancelled the Brickheadz theme.

Does anyone know if the SDCC Brickheadz (Dr. Strange, etc.) had a similar production run as TLM2 Brickheadz?

Aanchir · July 2019

SumoLego said:

There haven't really been any new Brickheadz since the end of last year. So who knows when they really cancelled the Brickheadz theme.

Does anyone know if the SDCC Brickheadz (Dr. Strange, etc.) had a similar production run as TLM2 Brickheadz?

Well, there are this year's seasonal BrickHeadz, of which some have been released and others are still yet to be released.

Also, in an interview Zusammengebaut conducted with Marcos Bessa (lead designer on BrickHeadz), Marcos says that the BrickHeadz are not finished, and that they specifically chose to start with as many IPs as they could pull from their licensing portfolio in order to cast as wide a net for potential buyers as possible and get the BrickHeadz widely recognized as a new LEGO design standard. Apparently there are already new IP character Brickheadz planned for the future, but from now on they will be released sporadically and not in huge waves like before.
The bit of the interview about BrickHeadz begins at about 00:11:30

Switchfoot55 · July 2019

^But they haven't cancelled the BH theme, right? We're getting all sorts of new ones. Lady Liberty and...the...other one???

SumoLego · July 2019

I would posit that those seasonal Brickheadz were already produced for the 2019 lineup. Along with the novelty Clown and Lady Liberty.

But it is a truly bad sign when Disney-themed product and SW-themed product each have an abruptly discontinued production run. And a character-driven in-house product has a limited run.

Not that I don't doubt Mr. Bessa's comments, as he would be a true 'insider', but there's all sorts of ways to stretch marketing jargon...

pharmjod · July 2019

SumoLego said:

Not that I don't doubt Mr. Bessa's comments, as he would be a true 'insider', but there's all sorts of ways to stretch marketing jargon...

Nailed it. I don't believe for a second we will see anything more than one offs with any future brickheadz. As far as licensed ones go, my prediction is trolls and minions as they lend themselves to the style. I don't know that any retailers want to order them as they had to clearance nearly every one to move. If we do see more they will likely be LEGO store and SAH exclusives. I hope I'm wrong though.

Astrobricks · July 2019

SumoLego said:

I would posit that those seasonal Brickheadz were already produced for the 2019 lineup. Along with the novelty Clown and Lady Liberty.

But it is a truly bad sign when Disney-themed product and SW-themed product each have an abruptly discontinued production run. And a character-driven in-house product has a limited run.

Not that I don't doubt Mr. Bessa's comments, as he would be a true 'insider', but there's all sorts of ways to stretch marketing jargon...

Not that you don’t doubt?

SumoLego · July 2019

Well, 'do doubt' would sound funny. And it looks like 'dodo u butt'.

pharmjod said:
Nailed it.

Nailed it! Likewise.

Switchfoot55 · July 2019

And "No Doubt" is so mid-2000's.

But, they may do well on the Secondary Market. So, still relevant to the discussion at hand.

Hey, LEGO should do a series of No Doubt Brickheadz to really pump some juice back into the line!

Bumblepants · July 2019

Switchfoot55 said:

And "No Doubt" is so mid-2000's.

But, they may do well on the Secondary Market. So, still relevant to the discussion at hand.

Hey, LEGO should do a series of No Doubt Brickheadz to really pump some juice back into the line!

That idea isn't Hellagood.

CCC · July 2019

Switchfoot55 said:

And "No Doubt" is so mid-2000's.

Weren't they more early 90s?

sid3windr · July 2019

We Don't speak about No Doubt.

SumoLego · July 2019

True Dat!

seppo21 · July 2019

Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?

M1J0E · July 2019

seppo21 said:

Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?

I’m assuming it must still have strong shelf appeal in store & sales to match! We bought that set what seems like forever ago now in case it was discontinued earlier. But it seems to have great life! I hope the ‘retiring soon tag’ on [email protected] is accurate as that’s what I go by & it doesn’t show the castle yet.

Bumblepants · July 2019

M1J0E said:

seppo21 said:

Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?

I’m assuming it must still have strong shelf appeal in store & sales to match! We bought that set what seems like forever ago now in case it was discontinued earlier. But it seems to have great life! I hope the ‘retiring soon tag’ on [email protected] is accurate as that’s what I go by & it doesn’t show the castle yet.

I think the 'retiring soon' tag is often used as a 'someone please buy these already we have 1000 more in the back' tag.

Astrobricks · July 2019

M1J0E said:

seppo21 said:

Any thoughts on when the Disney Castle might be discontinued?

I’m assuming it must still have strong shelf appeal in store & sales to match! We bought that set what seems like forever ago now in case it was discontinued earlier. But it seems to have great life! I hope the ‘retiring soon tag’ on [email protected] is accurate as that’s what I go by & it doesn’t show the castle yet.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the next Tower Bridge.

ReesesPieces · July 2019

With all the recent discounts, is the end near for...
#10257 Carousel
#10243 Parisian restaurant
#21311 voltron
#70840 apocalypseburg
#70620 Ninjago city
#70657 ninjago docks

? How do you think each will do in the after market? I believe the #10243 and maybe the #10257 have the most potential since is appeals to the widest audience.

ReesesPieces · July 2019

Astrobricks said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the next Tower Bridge.

I believe the Disney castle is more the Death Star. It will be out for ever and once it goes away, it will come back almost exactly the same but a higher price tag.

Oubird · July 2019

I think Voltron with at least Appreciate by 50%, and I also just got on sale this weekend, So there’s that too. Still might be on amazon prime sale for another hour now

Baby_Yoda · July 2019

I bet #70620 will do well, since it's always been difficult to acquire due to its high price point and being a Lego exclusive. On the other hand, I still want it. So, if I wish really hard for it to stay at A$500 til I have the money, it might not appreciate at all.

kbw · July 2019

The carousel and the PR both have “retiring soon” stickers on them at my local store

madforLEGO · July 2019

Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.

Astrobricks · July 2019

madforLEGO said:

Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.

Where did you hear this sound?

madejp86 · July 2019

Astrobricks said:

madforLEGO said:

Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.

Where did you hear this sound?

https://www.thebrickfan.com/retiring-lego-sets-july-2019/

Charmiefcb · July 2019

I really thought Assembly Square would have a longer lifespan than 2 years.

VorpalRyu · July 2019

Charmiefcb said:

I really thought Assembly Square would have a longer lifespan than 2 years.

Town Hall v2.0

Keilup · July 2019

madejp86 said:

Astrobricks said:

madforLEGO said:

Sounds like the Assembly Square is part of the retiring soon group as well.

Where did you hear this sound?

https://www.thebrickfan.com/retiring-lego-sets-july-2019/

Page doesn’t exist. I didn’t find it. Did they pull the article?

Baby_Yoda · July 2019

^ Must have. It was working yesterday.

amok · July 2019

I'm sure Assembly Square will stay around for a couple more years...

pharmjod · August 2019

Don't be so sure.

klinton · August 2019

Assembly Square seems like the one modular build that Lego would want to keep consistently on store shelves. It's a great entry point to the line that immediately conveys the pleasure of establishing a street (or three) of the things, all in one set.

Baby_Yoda · August 2019

Really? Seems more like a special thing for the biggest fans of the line, to me. A$400 is an expensive entry point.

SumoLego · August 2019

klinton said:

Assembly Square seems like the one modular build that Lego would want to keep consistently on store shelves.

The Parisian Restaurant was the quintessential entry point into the quagmire that is modular buildings. I'd put Assembly Square on the other end of the spectrum - where die-hard modular fans are the audience. (Much like the Rollercoaster in the fairground group.)

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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