Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego · March 11

That's definitely the spicy pulled pork cheesy fries I had at 9:30...

Bumblepants · March 11

I wonder if a lot of the reason this thread has died out is the sets we love to talk about (Modulars, UCS Star Wars, Creator Expert, etc) are no longer the big money makers they used to be.

Right now the best ways to make money are getting lucky with clearance finds or buying up shortrun products like Brickheadz or store exclusives. Lucky find posts end up in the Brag thread and people buying up shortrun products know better than to put their necks on the chopping block by announcing they did that because the 'Lil' Timmy Defenders' will murder them.

ReesesPieces · March 11

Came in looking for predictions on discontinuing sets on the secondary market.
Left hungry for spicy pulled pork cheesy fries (if that is a real thing).

pharmjod · March 11

Also, why would someone share their trade secrets at this point with how competitive it can be to try to "invest" in LEGO. I might with a few friends but it's not super wise to throw it out there for everyone to see. Having a reasonably accurate idea of when sets are retiring (especially when they have short lives) is one of the ways to be successful. Also, as has been stated ad nauseum, your purchase price is almost if not as important as your sale price in arbitrage.

Bumblepants · March 11

ReesesPieces said:

Came in looking for predictions on discontinuing sets on the secondary market.
Left hungry for spicy pulled pork cheesy fries (if that is a real thing).

You have been here long enough to know better than to expect things to be on topic!

CCC · March 11

This is where you should be investing your money:

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-Disney-Pixar-Movie-Toy-Story-Series-Set-7591-Construct-a-Zurg-with/163556848585?hash=item2614bf73c9:g:3Z8AAOSwsIFcboGU

SumoLego · March 11

CCC said:

This is where you should be investing your money:

Funny guy! I'm sure there's a bunch of CHIMA Speedorz that need your attention...

Pitfall69 · March 11

We could possibly change this to "Bad Predictions on Discontinued sets and Their Awful Secondary Market Value"

Bumblepants · March 11

Pitfall69 said:

We could possibly change this to "Bad Predictions on Discontinued sets and Their Awful Secondary Market Value"

I would enjoy a ''worst investments I made" discussion. I'll start: I bought 8-10 X-Men vs the Sentinel sets clearanced at Target for $25. Seemed like a sure thing to get around $75-100 in a few years with the unique figures and infrequent production of X-sets. I suppose everyone got them on big discount because the market for that one has always been super saturated and never climbed. I ended up trading or selling off my stock for roughly what I paid for it just to free up space.

monstblitz · March 11

Bumblepants said:

Pitfall69 said:

We could possibly change this to "Bad Predictions on Discontinued sets and Their Awful Secondary Market Value"

I would enjoy a ''worst investments I made" discussion. I'll start: I bought 8-10 X-Men vs the Sentinel sets clearanced at Target for $25. Seemed like a sure thing to get around $75-100 in a few years with the unique figures and infrequent production of X-sets. I suppose everyone got them on big discount because the market for that one has always been super saturated and never climbed. I ended up trading or selling off my stock for roughly what I paid for it just to free up space.

I think I can take all comers in the worst investments category. I rang the bell at the high point on #10179 right before re-release rumors started. Pretty sure I won't live long enough to break even...

SumoLego · March 11

Bumblepants said:
I would enjoy a ''worst investments I made" discussion. I'll start: I bought 8-10 X-Men vs the Sentinel sets clearanced at Target for $25.

The X-Jet set was available for an extended period of time, and there were a few instances when the set was available at a significant discount. And by comparison, the Wolverine Chopper set with Deadpool performed much better - most likely due to it's shorter availability.

I look at SW sets nowadays as a complete red herring for investors, as the various vehicles get refreshed every so many years.

I don't really 'invest' in sets, but I do dabble in bulk purchases to increase my trade margins.

The Maersk Triple-E #10241 continues to be an albatross for me. It appears to be selling about $50.00 above RRP, but I can't find anyone that wants one!

monstblitz said:
I rang the bell at the high point on #10179 right before re-release rumors started.

Yes, you won. Congrats! @CCC will send you a million bazillion CHIMA Speedorz and a barge full of flick-fire missiles.

Pitfall69 · March 11

Bumblepants said:

Pitfall69 said:

We could possibly change this to "Bad Predictions on Discontinued sets and Their Awful Secondary Market Value"

I would enjoy a ''worst investments I made" discussion. I'll start: I bought 8-10 X-Men vs the Sentinel sets clearanced at Target for $25. Seemed like a sure thing to get around $75-100 in a few years with the unique figures and infrequent production of X-sets. I suppose everyone got them on big discount because the market for that one has always been super saturated and never climbed. I ended up trading or selling off my stock for roughly what I paid for it just to free up space.

I still have about 6-7 of these. I have given a few as gifts. There's a new X-Men movie coming out, but I don't think that will make this set more desirable.

Pitfall69 · March 11

I don't know about my worst investment, but buying the Batman Pod was my worst purchase EVER!!! I laugh at myself from time to time...so do a couple of my friends.

SumoLego · March 11

@Pitfall69 said:
I still have about 6-7 of these. I have given a few as gifts. There's a new X-Men movie coming out, but I don't think that will make this set more desirable.

It took me awhile to figure out that the missing X-Man (Jean Grey) was only available as SDCC figure. And thanks to Kevin Hinkle for filling that void in my display!

Definitely want a Beast, Nightcrawler and Mystique, but I'm content with the figs available.

klinton · March 12

I'm surprised the Blackbird set isn't in higher demand. It's literally the perfect X-men set. Storm, Wolverine, Cyclops, a Sentinel, and their classic ride?

Fun fact: that was the very first set I bought at the Lego Store when it opened here.

Pitfall69 · March 12

^There are a lot of "head scratchers" out there in the Lego world.

Maybe @Bumblepants and @SumoLego were right, the combination of an extended production run and being on clearance.

madforLEGO · March 12

Pitfall69 said:

^There are a lot of "head scratchers" out there in the Lego world.

Maybe @Bumblepants and @SumoLego were right, the combination of an extended production run and being on clearance.

I'm not so sure it was a failure for me. If I really want I can open the 3 I have keep one set of figures, and three sentinels and sell off the rest of the figures. Would I make back all of what I spent for the sets? Prob not, but I would still have a bunch of X-Men and three sentinels

Pitfall69 · March 12

^I dont think it was a bad investment; it just didn't perform like I thought it would.

Baby_Yoda · March 12

Did anyone invest in Go Brick Me and if so how well is it doing? That had a high demand and at least down here not much availability.

Bumblepants · March 12

madforLEGO said:

Pitfall69 said:

^There are a lot of "head scratchers" out there in the Lego world.

Maybe @Bumblepants and @SumoLego were right, the combination of an extended production run and being on clearance.

I'm not so sure it was a failure for me. If I really want I can open the 3 I have keep one set of figures, and three sentinels and sell off the rest of the figures. Would I make back all of what I spent for the sets? Prob not, but I would still have a bunch of X-Men and three sentinels

Yeah my general rule was to only buy sets for investment I would be happy to be stuck with if it didn't pan out. In this case, I just had too many of them. I love the set.

Perhaps if Lego had kept making X-sets every other year or so that would have prompted collectors to go back and want the older set to get more mutants etc. If they did one now it would probably be the same core group again with only one or two new mutants at best. Too bad they weren't able to do like they did with Suicide Squad and put out comic variations of the cast at the same time as the film. A Dark Phoenix $20-30 set this summer would've been great.

milamber · March 12

Baby_Yoda said:

Did anyone invest in Go Brick Me and if so how well is it doing? That had a high demand and at least down here not much availability.

Wish I had done. I bought just the one for myself, but it's not really my thing so sold it a couple of weeks ago. Paid £18.50, sold for £35 locally and had lots of people wanting it at that price. £41 or thereabouts seems average on Ebay, but then there's fees and postage to consider. Certainly doing better than the box of Dimensions Dr Who cyberman and dalek sets I confidently took a punt on.........

SumoLego · March 12

Bumblepants said:
Too bad they weren't able to do like they did with Suicide Squad and put out comic variations of the cast at the same time as the film.

Cable!

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA · March 12

As someone who still has half a dozen Construct a Zurgs, I’ll play.

Not too disappointed with the Construct a Zurg purchase as I bought twice as many Construct a Buzz (which I sold for 3-4 times what I paid).

My greatest crime? Loading up on MANY Tower Bridges instead of Imperial Flagships (which I could have had a third more quantity of).

The only thing that lets me sleep at night is the fact that I’ll have PLENTY of brick yellow when it comes time to build my big railway bridge...

flord · March 12

I don't invest but when I see a good deal once in a while I'll do a quick flip. Right now that's Star Wars Brickheadz, and weirdly, the two Ninjago Brickheadz.

prevere · March 12

Looks like Go Brick Me is still going for about retail in the U.S per eBay. ^Did well on the Brickheadz Finn and Phasma while on high discounts + freebies on [email protected] On the investment side, surprised to see the few UCS Red Five X-Wings I bought haven't gone up. At least I didn't dive into to more UCS after that.

gmonkey76 · March 12

I think when the Disney Fox merger finally is official we will get more X-Men sets which could drive up the cost of the first two sets. I know Marvel all but killed all X-Men and Fantastic Four mech to get Fox to sell back the rights.

Astrobricks · March 13

^ “mech” or “merch”?

nhyone · March 13

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA said:

My greatest crime? Loading up on MANY Tower Bridges instead of Imperial Flagships (which I could have had a third more quantity of).

The only thing that lets me sleep at night is the fact that I’ll have PLENTY of brick yellow when it comes time to build my big railway bridge...

It is not the only thing you can build.

I was not interested in Tower Bridge as-is, but I was surprised it could be made into several kinds of buildings.

When it goes on clearance... :-D

CaptainPirateMan · March 13

For me, part of the problem is a lack of really quality themes to invest in. Yes, there are a couple still, but overall nowhere near like it was just 5 years ago.

Part of the problem (investing wise) is the themes that were a sure thing (Star Wars, Modulars, etc) are no longer the ones to invest in. I feel that minifigures are what drives up the price of most sets these days, especially licensed themes. So you have to find licensed sets with rare minifigs in them, which their just isnt an abundance of anymore. Plus, it seems like many sellers are aware of this, so there is a decent amount of competition.

I just feel like things have reached a point where minifigs will be the biggest deciding factor of set value. Not completely, some sets might be of value as well, but more often than not itll be the minifigs. Of course BOTH together (unopened) will be the top dollar stuff.

BlueAbarth500 · March 14

Not gonna lie, the only reason I follow this forum is for exclusive announcements, like Limited Edition Lego Professional sets, for example the Lego Hilton Opera from a couple of years ago which I managed to get 12 sets at £270 a pop each. That was instant profit with minimal effort.

The profit in standard Lego sets isn't the same as before, Lego know how to extract it and make all the money themselves now.

They create false hype around all their products now, and after a while everything is available cheaper on eBay. That Bond Aston springs to mind, it is an absolute waste of money.

75192 can be picked up for £500 on eBay now, people were paying £2000 for it when it was first released because Lego didn't make enough, and created false hype while they produced a shitload more.

The days are long gone of cleaning up on a Taj Mahal or a Millenium Falcon at £3000.

BlueAbarth500 · March 14

shikadi · March 14

SumoLego said:

Shhh... be very quiet... I am trying to sell some Exo-Suits...

I just bought one recently, since I was in my dark ages when it came out. Very appreciative so many resellers held these as I got it at about RRP. I'm now thinking about getting another one, what a fantastic set!

Another set I'm trying to pick up which has been much more elusive is #7598 Pizza Planet Truck. Sold for $39.99 in 2010 and now I can't find one under $100! Hit me up if you're holding onto a pile of these.

CCC · March 14

shikadi said:

Another set I'm trying to pick up which has been much more elusive is #7598 Pizza Planet Truck. Sold for $39.99 in 2010 and now I can't find one under $100! Hit me up if you're holding onto a pile of these.

I bought 5 of those for about £8 a go (about $12) and couldn't shift them. I ended up parting them out but still have some of the figures.

Aanchir · March 14

BlueAbarth500 said:

The profit in standard Lego sets isn't the same as before, Lego know how to extract it and make all the money themselves now.

They create false hype around all their products now, and after a while everything is available cheaper on eBay. That Bond Aston springs to mind, it is an absolute waste of money.

I mean, if there used to be so much profit to be made that LEGO wasn't able to extract, can you really say the "hype" they create around their products these days is false? It sounds to me more like their marketing team is simply doing a better job ensuring most of any given set's potential buyers are now aware of and eager for sets like these BEFORE they retire instead of after.

LEGO's savvy use of social media has probably made this a lot easier — sites like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram make it much easier for LEGO news to reach people who don't actively seek it out. Before social media, the main ways to learn about new products were visiting LEGO.com, visiting LEGO fansites, seeing TV commercials, or seeing the sets in stores. The first two are places only people who think of themselves as LEGO fans or collectors would tend to visit frequently, while the third and fourth weren't necessarily as viable an option for D2C sets that appealed to a more limited market segment and weren't carried by most stores.

By comparison, sponsored posts on social media can be targeted with a lot more finesse than TV ads (for example, sets about movie licensed sets can be engineered to appear on the news feeds of people who post a lot about those movies or about pop culture in general). And social media also makes word-of-mouth hype a lot easier to generate than if it relied on LEGO being brought up in one-on-one conversation. Nowadays, on a site like Facebook, a person doesn't need a friend to share LEGO news with them specifically to hear about it — all it takes for it to show up on their news feed is for a friend to like, comment on, or share it.

I think there are still some sets from recent years that seem to be appreciating nicely, though… the trouble for investors would be anticipating WHICH. Just glancing at the price guides on BrickLink and BrickPicker, new copies of the 2016 Elves sets #41172-1, #41173-1, #41174-1, #41175-1, #41176-1, and #41179-1 have all grown pretty sharply in value since their release 2–3 years ago, particularly considering that they were neither available for an unusually short time nor rare to find marked down at retail. The even more extraordinary growth in aftermarket value of #41178-1 was obviously due to its early retirement that almost nobody anticipated, but the same can't be said for those other sets.

Among other themes, #60104-1, #60130-1, #60112-1, and #60118-1 from LEGO City, #41126-1, #41307-1, #41318-1, and #41325-1 from LEGO Friends, and #70595-1 from LEGO Ninjago have also seen some substantial increases in value over a similar period of time, though naturally some of those might be less reliable as long-term investments since they depict subjects that tend to be revisited within these themes every few years.

Note that these sets (unlike modulars or Star Wars sets) are mostly from heavily kid targeted sets and themes. I'm not an investor, so I could be talking out of my anti-stud, but I think if there's a lesson in this it's that one thing to think about when predicting secondary market value is "what might kids and parents be looking for a few years from now that they won't find as easily among current products?"

After all, even if LEGO hospitals, pirate ships, playgrounds, and garbage trucks aren't so reliably popular that LEGO can justify bringing out a new one every year like they do with LEGO City police stations or LEGO Friends houses, they're still subjects that there will probably always be some kid wishing to have as a LEGO set, and that some parents will be willing to pay extra for to make those kids' wishes come true.

SumoLego · March 14

BlueAbarth500 said:

The profit in standard Lego sets isn't the same as before, Lego know how to extract it and make all the money themselves now.

That's what they're supposed to do. They're not producing sets for aftermarket profit.

jnscoelho · March 14

SumoLego said:

BlueAbarth500 said:

The profit in standard Lego sets isn't the same as before, Lego know how to extract it and make all the money themselves now.

That's what they're supposed to do. They're not producing sets for aftermarket profit.

Queue TLM2 BrickHeadz...

SumoLego · March 14

jnscoelho said:
Queue TLM2 BrickHeadz...

Except that, clearly LEGO pivoted (drastically!) away from the Brickheadz theme. I'm just surmising from my years of observing LEGO that this was a partial production run prior to the cancellation of the line.

I think we can all agree that this is an outlier.

And that LEGO apparently stood to lose money or not maximize their margin by doing a full run of the LM2 Brickheadz.

Switchfoot55 · March 14

Just wait...the LM2 Brickheadz will still be produced for the mass market, but just packaged differently to avoid the "limited edition" being a lie.

Then I'll happily add them to my BH collection and spend the $110 I saved elsewhere.

Pitfall69 · March 14

^That would be awesome!!! I've been waiting 6 years for Lego to make more Mr. Gold's!!!

Pitfall69 · March 14

SumoLego said:

jnscoelho said:
Queue TLM2 BrickHeadz...

Except that, clearly LEGO pivoted (drastically!) away from the Brickheadz theme. I'm just surmising from my years of observing LEGO that this was a partial production run prior to the cancellation of the line.

I think we can all agree that this is an outlier.

And that LEGO apparently stood to lose money or not maximize their margin by doing a full run of the LM2 Brickheadz.

Not only did these come out around the same time Lego decided to axe the Brickhedz theme, TLM2 was a colossal flop and I highly doubt that they will make anymore TLM2 Brickhedz to satisfy the masses.

samiam391 · March 14

Pitfall69 said:

^That would be awesome!!! I've been waiting 6 years for Lego to make more Mr. Gold's!!!

@pharmjod mentioned a creative idea yesterday. For the price Mr. Gold goes for today you could pay a jewler to make you a Mr. Gold... out of gold.

Might have to try it...

SumoLego · March 14

Flop is a little harsh. It has made $100M domestically. Another $75M globally, and will do well in the streaming/rental/purchase market.

The Ninjago Movie was much more of a 'flop'. Nonetheless, it wasn't the surprise, runaway success of the original or the Batman Movie.

It bothers me when a 'not as successful as anticipated' is equated to 'flop'. Not every successful movie needs to gross a billion dollars.

As an aside, I agree that further TLM2 Brickheadz would have been bad use of resources.

Pitfall69 · March 14

It would have had to make like 500m to break even; it won't come close to that

guachi · March 14

Lego Movie cost $100 million or so to make. A typical movie would need to make $200-250 million to break even. That amount is probably far lower for Lego considering they make the toys for the movie.

There is no way Lego Movie 2 needed to make $500 million to break even.

Lyichir · March 14

SumoLego said:

jnscoelho said:
Queue TLM2 BrickHeadz...

Except that, clearly LEGO pivoted (drastically!) away from the Brickheadz theme. I'm just surmising from my years of observing LEGO that this was a partial production run prior to the cancellation of the line.

I think we can all agree that this is an outlier.

And that LEGO apparently stood to lose money or not maximize their margin by doing a full run of the LM2 Brickheadz.

I've heard rumors that the LM2 Brickheadz might also have been exclusives that were intended for one of the major Comic Cons before plans changed and they were made available to Target and Wal-Mart instead (hence the low quantities available through such major retail outlets).

SumoLego · March 15

Judging by comparable animated film budgets, I'd estimate somewhere in the $75M-$100M range. And they'd probably need to generate 2x that to 'break even'. But even if the entire enterprise made a marginal profit - it's a movie made to sell merchandise, move merchandise and sell more merchandise.

Not to mention all of the licensing agreements and collateral income sources...

I doubt we'll see a third installment, or it'll be on a much more modest scale. After all, we got a whole mess of John Wick and those silly Saw and Conjuring movies.

Pitfall69 · March 15

guachi said:

Lego Movie cost $100 million or so to make. A typical movie would need to make $200-250 million to break even. That amount is probably far lower for Lego considering they make the toys for the movie.

There is no way Lego Movie 2 needed to make $500 million to break even.

Cool. Yeah, I added an extra zero there. That's what I do ;)

Yes, they spent that much to make the movie, but they also spent 100m in marketing the movie which needs to.be taken into account.

Pitfall69 · March 15

@SumoLego I'm not trying to be an arse by any means, but pretty much every website has said that TL2 was a flop. I didn't like the movie at all. I did like the first movie though. I actually fell asleep during this one. In my opinion, the best part of the movie was when Will Ferrel asked where his pants were.

iamterry · March 15

Ditto to not liking it, I thought it was very weak. Took the kids and they both enjoyed it however, I doubt I'd spend all that money for a cinema trip with them if a 3rd was made.

klinton · March 15

Really? I was honestly expecting it to be lackluster but I walked out completely surprised. I would go for a third screening, but I've already exhausted my friends who were willing to go see it with me. I'm far outside of the target demographic, but it thoroughly entertained me.

I sincerely hope there is a third installment, if for no other reason than I want to see more Lego Movie sets in the future. :p

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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