A LEGO House special Bonusball Edition - 15 November 2018 deadline

Comments

• mak0137 VirginiaMember Posts: 282

  November 2018

  284,126,791

  0
• GoodCoffeeJoey Member Posts: 82

  November 2018

  093701134

  0
• starwars4ever The Forest Moon of EndorMember Posts: 480

  November 2018

  210,210,210

  0
• ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101

  November 2018

  715,645,645

  0
• hoodaddy USMember Posts: 302

  November 2018

  720,001,223
  

  0
• Fodder AustraliaMember Posts: 289

  November 2018

  201612

  0
• Goldchains Member Posts: 795

  November 2018

  658313406
  

  0
• sonatine01 Daventry, EnglandMember Posts: 580

  November 2018

  28,052,009 for me please :-) Thanks @stlux

  0
• Boomstick IndianaMember Posts: 247

  November 2018

  2482

  0
• Covi BelgiumMember Posts: 299

  November 2018

  66,954,113

  0
• TheOriginalSimonB Felixstowe Member Posts: 1,405

  November 2018

  Thanks for hosting, @stlux.  
  
  I'll take a flyer on 42,254,758

  0
• donutboy U.K.Member Posts: 738

  November 2018

  101,101,101

  0
• teal93mr2 USAMember Posts: 966

  November 2018

  159,568

  0
• Renegade007cjh Essex, UKMember Posts: 687

  November 2018

  Heh, these are always fun...

  
  

  42,424,242
  

  0
• SprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742

  November 2018

  Ah, bugger, 305,034,588
  

  
  

  Thanks for hosting!
  

  0
• Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720

  November 2018

  18,232,028

  0
• kez United KingdomMember Posts: 826

  November 2018

  18,303,290

  0
• adiemc UKMember Posts: 516

  November 2018

  Thanks for hosting @stlux.  I'll go for 42,155,951

  0
• arathemis sometimes here, sometimes thereMember Posts: 356

  November 2018

  329980334

  0
• BrickByBrick Massachusetts, USAMember Posts: 659

  November 2018

  14,000,605

  0
• Paperballpark UK / KLMember Posts: 3,544

  November 2018

  29,800,123

  0
• ravendragonwing Member Posts: 149

  November 2018

  1369421
  

  0
• msanders Member Posts: 940

  November 2018

  22,061,982

  0
• SirBen In the Hall of the Mountain KingMember Posts: 563

  November 2018

  672,137,964
  

  0
• Jern92 MalaysiaMember Posts: 815

  November 2018

  44,444,444

  0
• norm103 Member Posts: 287

  November 2018

  73,827,981

  0
• omnium Brickenham, UKMember Posts: 800

  November 2018

  What a nice bonus ball idea!
  I'll pick 666,666,666.
  \m/

  0
• sid3windr BelgiumMember Posts: 1,438

  November 2018

  omnium said:

  What a nice bonus ball idea!
  I'll pick 666,666,666.
  \m/

  Are you sharing the separator with @TheFew and does he agree? ;-)
  

  

  2
• TheFew EnglandMember Posts: 1,511

  November 2018

  sid3windr said:

  omnium said:

  What a nice bonus ball idea!
  I'll pick 666,666,666.
  \m/

  Are you sharing the separator with @TheFew and does he agree? ;-)
  

  I'll take the end with the spindle.

  

  1
• CCC UKMember Posts: 18,310

  November 2018

  CCC said:

  
  

  As I've posted, I guess I better enter so I'm going for 4.

  
  

  Toc13 said:

  7
  
  

  So I win if it is 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Nobody take 3 or my odds are totally screwed.
  

  
  

  
  

  redarmy said:

  57,243,129
  
  or 3

  First answer only better apply.
  

  
  

  

  1
• omnium Brickenham, UKMember Posts: 800

  November 2018

  TheFew said:

  sid3windr said:

  omnium said:

  What a nice bonus ball idea!
  I'll pick 666,666,666.
  \m/

  Are you sharing the separator with @TheFew and does he agree? ;-)
  

  I'll take the end with the spindle.

  Oh drat! Two pages scuppered my search!
  
  I'll yield. I'll take 666,666,668, the neighbour of the beast.

  0
• benbacardi EnglandMember Posts: 497

  November 2018

  omnium said:

  I'll yield. I'll take 666,666,668, the neighbour of the beast.

  Unless it lives in a col de sac, where the houses may well be numbered sequentially!

  

  3
• Matt89190 UKMember Posts: 295

  November 2018 edited November 2018

  I'll go for 47,391,086.

  0
• omnium Brickenham, UKMember Posts: 800

  November 2018 edited November 2018

  benbacardi said:

  omnium said:

  I'll yield. I'll take 666,666,668, the neighbour of the beast.

  Unless it lives in a col de sac, where the houses may well be numbered sequentially!

  Good lord! I live in a cul de sac with sequential numbering and didn't even think of that.

  

  3
• eMJeeNL The NetherlandsMember Posts: 481

  November 2018

  525.424.412
  
  thanks for doing this StLux!

  0
• amok Istanbul, TurkeyMember Posts: 45

  November 2018

  457,551,882

  0
• Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,117

  November 2018

  62,843,176

  0
• kiki180703 Montreal, CanadaMember Posts: 1,044

  November 2018

  693,239,734
  
  Thanks for hosting again!
  

  0
• bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,058

  November 2018

  I'll go for 915,103,765

  0
• Mexten MexicoMember Posts: 60

  November 2018

  1.000.000

  0
• DeMontes North YorkshireMember Posts: 614

  November 2018

  45,673,968 I was tempted to go to the minifig party just for the Teal separator 😍

  

  3
• M_Boss Houston, TexasMember Posts: 247

  November 2018 edited November 2018

  42,794,373

  0
• LittleLori CanadaMember Posts: 154

  November 2018

  Thanks for hosting @stlux.
  
  271814
  
  

  0
• pookie Member Posts: 156

  November 2018

  22,735,987

  0
• ericb Member Posts: 81

  November 2018

  000 143 231
  

  0
• dbrouge QcMember Posts: 24

  November 2018

  39,320,263
  

  0
• alldarker NetherlandsMember Posts: 225

  November 2018 edited November 2018

  Looks like two other people need to share if they win...

  560Heliport said:

  I'll go biggest: 915,103,765

  bandit778 said:

  I'll go for 915,103,765

  

  3
• alldarker NetherlandsMember Posts: 225

  November 2018

  I've been analyzing people's choices, because as an analyst myself who combine stats with sociology, I felt people were making some interesting choices regarding the numbers they choose. I'll let you guys see my preliminary findings.
  Basics are these: there's a random number between 1 and 915,103,765, and while any single chosen number has a 1/915,103,765 chance of actually corresponding to stlux's brick combination, the fact that 'the nearest number' (+ or -) will win makes strategy so much more interesting, because it means your choice actually creates a range of possible numbers, limited by your nearest neighbors' chosen numbers (or by the upper and lower limits of the possible spread). 
  You'd think that people would choose numbers from all over the total spread of possibilities. However... It seems Bricksetters have a fear of high numbers. There have been 89 entries up till now. Dividing the total possible spread of entries up into brackets of 100,000,000, the numbers people have chosen are spread in the following rather irrational pattern:
  
  

  1-100,000,000	49
  100,000,001-200,000,000	7
  200,000,001-300,000,000	6
  300,000,001-400,000,000	5
  400,000,001-500,000,000	4
  500,000,001-600,000,000	5
  600,000,001-700,000,000	7
  700,000,001-800,000,000	4
  800,000,001-900,000,000	0
  900,000,001-915,103,765	2

  
  Well over half of all entries are a guess of a result under 100,000,000, even though there's only about 11% chance that stlux's random combination will fall in this bracket. Beyond 100,000,001 the amounts of entries per bracket fall incredibly sharply, with the bracket between 800,000,001 and 900,000,000 actually lacking any entries! The bracket 900,000,001-915,103,765 has two entries, although both entries are for the same combination. 
  I decided to calculate the chances of any one person winning if the cut-off was today. With a completely even spread of entries, the basic chance should be 1/89 = 1.124%. Needless to say, the actual spread is very uneven, and hence not everybody's chances are that good. For example, my own current chances of winning with a guess of number 567,543,239 are currently 1.38%. with a winning range between 565,225,676 and 577,861,030. Worst choice was unfortunately made by @CCC with a choice of 4: his range of winning numbers is currently limited to the range between 1 and 5, due to Toc13 having chosen number 7. That rather limited range gives him a 0.00000049% chance to win (on a positive note: that's actually slightly better than winning the US Powerball jackpot).
  The best choice seems to have been made by @JudgeChuck. He's currently got a winning range which contains almost 88,000,000 possible numbers, giving him a 9.6% chance of winning! 
  

  

  21
• bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,058

  November 2018

  alldarker said:

  Looks like two other people need to share if they win...

  560Heliport said:

  I'll go biggest: 915,103,765

  bandit778 said:

  I'll go for 915,103,76

  I'm quite happy to redo my guess so that @560Heliport can keep his number as he did put his guess in first and I wasn't paying attention.
  
  

  alldarker said:

  
  

  800,000,001-900,000,000	0

  and so that the 800,000,001 - 900,000,000 bracket doesn't feel left out I'll go for a guess of 843,265,146. 
  Probably won't make a jot of difference but keeps everyone with a separate guess and now @alldarker can have more fun running the stats again. :)

  

  5
• alldarker NetherlandsMember Posts: 225

  November 2018

  bandit778 said:

  I'm quite happy to redo my guess so that @560Heliport can keep his number as he did put his guess in first and I wasn't paying attention.
  
  

  alldarker said:

  
  

  800,000,001-900,000,000	0

  and so that the 800,000,001 - 900,000,000 bracket doesn't feel left out I'll go for a guess of 843,265,146. 
  Probably won't make a jot of difference but keeps everyone with a separate guess and now @alldarker can have more fun running the stats again. :)

  Well, you decreased @JudgeChuck's chances to 'just' 5,9%, and you decreased @560Heliport's chance to 3,8%: still both excellent chances of winning. Your own chance of winning actually stayed practically exactly the same (your winning range  of numbers only decreased by 1 because you 'lost' a number in your range to 560Heliport).

  

  7