A LEGO House special Bonusball Edition - 15 November 2018 deadline

mak0137 · November 2018

284,126,791

GoodCoffeeJoey · November 2018

093701134

starwars4ever · November 2018

210,210,210

ecmo47 · November 2018

715,645,645

hoodaddy · November 2018

720,001,223

Fodder · November 2018

201612

Goldchains · November 2018

658313406

sonatine01 · November 2018

28,052,009 for me please :-) Thanks @stlux

Boomstick · November 2018

2482

Covi · November 2018

66,954,113

TheOriginalSimonB · November 2018

Thanks for hosting, @stlux.

I'll take a flyer on 42,254,758

donutboy · November 2018

101,101,101

teal93mr2 · November 2018

159,568

Renegade007cjh · November 2018

Heh, these are always fun...

42,424,242

SprinkleOtter · November 2018

Ah, bugger, 305,034,588

Thanks for hosting!

Bricklover18 · November 2018

18,232,028

kez · November 2018

18,303,290

adiemc · November 2018

Thanks for hosting @stlux. I'll go for 42,155,951

arathemis · November 2018

329980334

BrickByBrick · November 2018

14,000,605

Paperballpark · November 2018

29,800,123

ravendragonwing · November 2018

1369421

msanders · November 2018

22,061,982

SirBen · November 2018

672,137,964

Jern92 · November 2018

44,444,444

norm103 · November 2018

73,827,981

omnium · November 2018

What a nice bonus ball idea!
I'll pick 666,666,666.
\m/

sid3windr · November 2018

omnium said:

What a nice bonus ball idea!
I'll pick 666,666,666.
\m/

Are you sharing the separator with @TheFew and does he agree? ;-)

TheFew · November 2018

sid3windr said:

omnium said:

What a nice bonus ball idea!
I'll pick 666,666,666.
\m/

Are you sharing the separator with @TheFew and does he agree? ;-)

I'll take the end with the spindle.

CCC · November 2018

CCC said:

As I've posted, I guess I better enter so I'm going for 4.

Toc13 said:

7

So I win if it is 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Nobody take 3 or my odds are totally screwed.

redarmy said:

57,243,129

or 3

First answer only better apply.

omnium · November 2018

TheFew said:

sid3windr said:

omnium said:

What a nice bonus ball idea!
I'll pick 666,666,666.
\m/

Are you sharing the separator with @TheFew and does he agree? ;-)

I'll take the end with the spindle.

Oh drat! Two pages scuppered my search!

I'll yield. I'll take 666,666,668, the neighbour of the beast.

benbacardi · November 2018

omnium said:
I'll yield. I'll take 666,666,668, the neighbour of the beast.

Unless it lives in a col de sac, where the houses may well be numbered sequentially!

Matt89190 · November 2018

I'll go for 47,391,086.

omnium · November 2018

benbacardi said:

omnium said:
I'll yield. I'll take 666,666,668, the neighbour of the beast.

Unless it lives in a col de sac, where the houses may well be numbered sequentially!

Good lord! I live in a cul de sac with sequential numbering and didn't even think of that.

eMJeeNL · November 2018

525.424.412

thanks for doing this StLux!

amok · November 2018

457,551,882

Thanos75 · November 2018

62,843,176

kiki180703 · November 2018

693,239,734

Thanks for hosting again!

bandit778 · November 2018

I'll go for 915,103,765

Mexten · November 2018

1.000.000

DeMontes · November 2018

45,673,968 I was tempted to go to the minifig party just for the Teal separator 😍

M_Boss · November 2018

42,794,373

LittleLori · November 2018

Thanks for hosting @stlux.

271814

pookie · November 2018

22,735,987

ericb · November 2018

000 143 231

dbrouge · November 2018

39,320,263

alldarker · November 2018

Looks like two other people need to share if they win...

560Heliport said:
I'll go biggest: 915,103,765

bandit778 said:

I'll go for 915,103,765

alldarker · November 2018

I've been analyzing people's choices, because as an analyst myself who combine stats with sociology, I felt people were making some interesting choices regarding the numbers they choose. I'll let you guys see my preliminary findings.
Basics are these: there's a random number between 1 and 915,103,765, and while any single chosen number has a 1/915,103,765 chance of actually corresponding to stlux's brick combination, the fact that 'the nearest number' (+ or -) will win makes strategy so much more interesting, because it means your choice actually creates a range of possible numbers, limited by your nearest neighbors' chosen numbers (or by the upper and lower limits of the possible spread).
You'd think that people would choose numbers from all over the total spread of possibilities. However... It seems Bricksetters have a fear of high numbers. There have been 89 entries up till now. Dividing the total possible spread of entries up into brackets of 100,000,000, the numbers people have chosen are spread in the following rather irrational pattern:

1-100,000,000	49
100,000,001-200,000,000	7
200,000,001-300,000,000	6
300,000,001-400,000,000	5
400,000,001-500,000,000	4
500,000,001-600,000,000	5
600,000,001-700,000,000	7
700,000,001-800,000,000	4
800,000,001-900,000,000	0
900,000,001-915,103,765	2

Well over half of all entries are a guess of a result under 100,000,000, even though there's only about 11% chance that stlux's random combination will fall in this bracket. Beyond 100,000,001 the amounts of entries per bracket fall incredibly sharply, with the bracket between 800,000,001 and 900,000,000 actually lacking any entries! The bracket 900,000,001-915,103,765 has two entries, although both entries are for the same combination.
I decided to calculate the chances of any one person winning if the cut-off was today. With a completely even spread of entries, the basic chance should be 1/89 = 1.124%. Needless to say, the actual spread is very uneven, and hence not everybody's chances are that good. For example, my own current chances of winning with a guess of number 567,543,239 are currently 1.38%. with a winning range between 565,225,676 and 577,861,030. Worst choice was unfortunately made by @CCC with a choice of 4: his range of winning numbers is currently limited to the range between 1 and 5, due to Toc13 having chosen number 7. That rather limited range gives him a 0.00000049% chance to win (on a positive note: that's actually slightly better than winning the US Powerball jackpot).
The best choice seems to have been made by @JudgeChuck. He's currently got a winning range which contains almost 88,000,000 possible numbers, giving him a 9.6% chance of winning!

bandit778 · November 2018

alldarker said:

Looks like two other people need to share if they win...
560Heliport said:
I'll go biggest: 915,103,765

bandit778 said:

I'll go for 915,103,76

I'm quite happy to redo my guess so that @560Heliport can keep his number as he did put his guess in first and I wasn't paying attention.

alldarker said:

800,000,001-900,000,000 0

and so that the 800,000,001 - 900,000,000 bracket doesn't feel left out I'll go for a guess of 843,265,146.
Probably won't make a jot of difference but keeps everyone with a separate guess and now @alldarker can have more fun running the stats again. :)

alldarker · November 2018

bandit778 said:
I'm quite happy to redo my guess so that @560Heliport can keep his number as he did put his guess in first and I wasn't paying attention.

alldarker said:

800,000,001-900,000,000 0

and so that the 800,000,001 - 900,000,000 bracket doesn't feel left out I'll go for a guess of 843,265,146.
Probably won't make a jot of difference but keeps everyone with a separate guess and now @alldarker can have more fun running the stats again. :)

Well, you decreased @JudgeChuck's chances to 'just' 5,9%, and you decreased @560Heliport's chance to 3,8%: still both excellent chances of winning. Your own chance of winning actually stayed practically exactly the same (your winning range of numbers only decreased by 1 because you 'lost' a number in your range to 560Heliport).

A LEGO House special Bonusball Edition - 15 November 2018 deadline

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