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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    SumoLego said:
    (I think a UCS MF did a pretty good job of exploring hoe that balance works...)
    Do they have such an establishment in Diagon Alley? Maybe one can find a "hoe" in Knockturn Alley instread.
    560HeliportpharmjodSprinkleOtterRonyargmonkey76Astrobricks
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    Apparently my auto-correct thinks I'm an avid gardener.  

    The hoe you seek is actually a 'ho'.  And get your mind out of the gutter!
    Pitfall69pharmjodSprinkleOtterdmcc0gmonkey76
  • BlueberryWafflesBlueberryWaffles MinnesotaMember Posts: 23
    How long is the Ship in the Bottle going to last? I've been paranoid about the Ideas sets ever since I let the Maze slip by me. That's so expensive now.
  • DB361DB361 UKMember Posts: 196
    Ship in a Bottle I wouldn't be too worried about yet. Saturn V is the one to get a move on with if anyone's intending on getting it - it's been out for a year now and Ideas sets only tend to last for 12-18 months I guess depending on how well they've sold and how many were made. Saturn V I can imagine being very expensive on the aftermarket.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 977
    ^I'm leaning in the other direction...
    My bold prediction? Saturn V will be the longest available Ideas set to date and will be available after several more recent Ideas sets (including those yet to be released) have disappeared.
    Note - If you've seen my dusty stack of Tower Bridges, you may ignore my comment appropriately.
    Bumblepantsdmcc0madforLEGOSumoLegomsanderspharmjodFollowsCloselysid3windrMr_Cross
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,582
    Yes, Ghostbusters seem to be around for a long time too, I imagine that Saturn V will stay for a while as it seems like a good seller. I wonder if there is an upper limited on how many they can produce.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 883
    edited June 2018
    Nope, NASA licenses are free, can’t see there being any limits

    Just have to abide by their rules

    https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/features/Merchandising_Guidelines.html
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,302
    CCC said:
    Yes, Ghostbusters seem to be around for a long time too, I imagine that Saturn V will stay for a while as it seems like a good seller. I wonder if there is an upper limited on how many they can produce.
    I'm guessing the GB HQ is likely around due to existing supply as the vehicles are gone (at least in the US)
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 977
    I'd never thought about the cost (or lack there of) of NASA licensing.  TLG must be over the moon (no pun intended) to have such a popular set that they don't have cut a cheque to Disney at the end of each run.  Also goes some way to explaining why the set is damn good value for money?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,582
    CCC said:
    Yes, Ghostbusters seem to be around for a long time too, I imagine that Saturn V will stay for a while as it seems like a good seller. I wonder if there is an upper limited on how many they can produce.
    I'm guessing the GB HQ is likely around due to existing supply as the vehicles are gone (at least in the US)
    I meant the IDEAS GB set, the Ecto-1. But yes, I agree about the HQ. Having that out and no vehicle is a bit daft.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,582
    I'd never thought about the cost (or lack there of) of NASA licensing.  TLG must be over the moon (no pun intended) to have such a popular set that they don't have cut a cheque to Disney at the end of each run.  Also goes some way to explaining why the set is damn good value for money?
    Presumably there are still associated costs with using the NASA logo and so on. Maybe not Disney cost levels though.
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRA
  • SeanTheCollectorSeanTheCollector BirminghamMember Posts: 746
    CCC said:
    CCC said:
    Yes, Ghostbusters seem to be around for a long time too, I imagine that Saturn V will stay for a while as it seems like a good seller. I wonder if there is an upper limited on how many they can produce.
    I'm guessing the GB HQ is likely around due to existing supply as the vehicles are gone (at least in the US)
    I meant the IDEAS GB set, the Ecto-1. But yes, I agree about the HQ. Having that out and no vehicle is a bit daft.
    Well they released #75098 Assault on Hoth just after they retired the hoth based #75054 AT-AT! That still annoys me since I didn't buy the AT-AT before it retired.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    ^How did you sell it @FollowsClosely ? On eBay? Amazon? Etc.?
    eBay. For clarity, the HP sets where from our personal collection, not my remaining pile of investments. That remaining pile of modulars, tower bridges and camper vans will all go this Christmas.
    Pitfall69Bumblepants
  • sid3windrsid3windr BelgiumMember Posts: 1,349
    CCC said:
    I meant the IDEAS GB set, the Ecto-1. But yes, I agree about the HQ. Having that out and no vehicle is a bit daft.
    Hmm. The Ideas Ecto-1 has not been on sale by TLG anymore since over a year, has it?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    FollowsClosely said:
    That remaining pile of modulars, tower bridges and camper vans will all go this Christmas.
    Santa?
    SprinkleOtter
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,302
    SumoLego said:
    FollowsClosely said:
    That remaining pile of modulars, tower bridges and camper vans will all go this Christmas.
    Santa?
    The VW Camper van and Tower bridge may as well just be put on LEGO's Icon, since they apparently will never die. I can see the VW Camper van being purchased still, only because of all of the VW fans around the world (and may have gotten renewed interest with the VW Beetle coming out), but the Tower Bridge? Is it really that popular WW?
    Maybe it is due to Big Ben being released?

    In any case I would like to see those retire, but solely due to selfish reasons.
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7Bumblepants
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,148
    edited June 2018
    Just for fun I from time to time check the seal codes on Tower Bridge boxes when visiting a Lego Store. Seems to be selling quite well, as it is still getting regular production runs. Late last year I saw a 42S7 seal code (week 42 in 2017 production), and earlier this year a 16S8 one.

    Disclaimer: My recollection of those codes might be off by a few weeks, but should still give a rough idea that there's still ongoing production runs to replenish store shelves instead of leftover stock they are unable to shift.
    BumblepantsSumoLegopharmjodFizyxsid3windrMAGNINOMINISUMBRAAstrobricksLego_Star
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,702
    As a fan of bridges I wish that one would retire and something like Golden Gate Bridge takes its place. Tower Bridge is a nice set but the its just boring seeing the same stuff on shelves for 8+ years
    stluxSumoLegoFizyxFollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    I have a huge question seeing that deal codes have come up: Remember there was a run of Fire Brigades that had missing bags? It was determined that a certain seal code was identified to let you know if your Fire Brigade had a missing bag or not. I have #10198 Tantive IV and was wondering if there was a way to determine if there is a "smooth hair Leia" in my box? I bought the set right from [email protected] the day it was released. 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    I haven't ever seen any discussion on the smooth hair Leia seal codes. Just do a cost benefit analysis. How much are you really losing if you open the box and keep the bags sealed vs how much you would gain if you can advertise it is a smooth haired Leia.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    There has to be someone on here that opened their box and found a "smooth haired Leia" and still has their box.

    When I used to collect sports cards, there was definitely a premium put on unopened boxes of sports cards that may contain a Gretxy or Jordon Rookie card. You may get one you may get 5, but people were willing to shell out money for them.
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    @Pitfall69, I do, if no one else gets to it first, I can check tomorrow morning. I bought it the week of release, and do have the smooth hair Leia, I still have it in box too.
    LobotPitfall69Lego_Star
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    ^That is fantastic news!!! 
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    I can tell you mine did not have smooth hair Leia.  Can check the codes if you want.  But I think Mr_Cross's data is more relevant.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    I can tell you mine did not have smooth hair Leia.  Can check the codes if you want.  But I think Mr_Cross's data is more relevant.
    Sure, why not :) All I know is that I was freaking out because I had about 10 Fire Brigades that I was ready to list on Ebay and I didn't know if any of the ones I had were the ones with missing bags.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,302
    Pitfall69 said:
    I can tell you mine did not have smooth hair Leia.  Can check the codes if you want.  But I think Mr_Cross's data is more relevant.
    Sure, why not :) All I know is that I was freaking out because I had about 10 Fire Brigades that I was ready to list on Ebay and I didn't know if any of the ones I had were the ones with missing bags.
    Fairly sure it was something like 39R2 for the 'bad' FB's
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    What the heck is going on with #8087 Tie Defender? All of a sudden it has gone up in price.
  • SeanTheCollectorSeanTheCollector BirminghamMember Posts: 746
    ^ Maybe someone built an interesting MOC using a Technic Lever 3X120 which is the only unique part in that set?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    Not all the fire brigades from that code were bad. As a matter of fact LEGO would not even replace the bag unless you actually opened it up and verified it was missing the bag. They asked for some sort of code off of the instructions. 

    Even if you find someone with the same seal codes that says they have a smooth haired Leia it's no guarantee yours will. Especially if they are in another country. Only one way to truly know for sure. If it's a smooth haired Leia I'd say even opened with sealed bags is worth more than sealed box with no confirmation
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,582
    pharmjod said:
    Not all the fire brigades from that code were bad. As a matter of fact LEGO would not even replace the bag unless you actually opened it up and verified it was missing the bag. They asked for some sort of code off of the instructions. 

    The codes on the instructions are all the same (although slightly diff for US vs Eur), so I'm not sure what it would prove.
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    Okay, it would appear that mine has what I assume is a barcode. There are only these two stickers. Nowhere else has a code as far as I can see, certainly not the four character "24S8" style we have now.

    Apologies for the size of pics and the horrible hairy stickers, have tried to highlight the actual "barcode" in the pics for comparison purposes. I've also added a pic of the smooth hair so you know for sure that I have the correct version!
    I bought from [email protected] and I think it was in the week of release, I think it was dispatched from one of the European warehouses via DHL, but I can't tell you much more for certain without some serious digging around!

    I checked the price of the hair piece 30409 alone on BL and it doesn't have a dedicated part number, which makes sense and whilst the variant has a picture there, the part is only being sold within the listings for the Leia figure with smooth hair... it's crazy... I think I'm going to have to contemplate how much I want to keep that particular part (or figure) with that set. Mine is like new as I requested a replacement hair piece for Leia from LEGO immediately, I'm fairly sure that if someone offered me three figures for that one part I'd probably sell it and buy something much better value!

    No one is claiming to have a smooth haired Leia in their #10198 on Bricklink but the prices on all of those is bonkers anyway, I don't think you'd lose much by popping the seals, and if you do have the smooth hair variant, you'll almost certainly recoup the difference.

    Hope that helps @Pitfall69, I think you probably actually now need someone else's evidence too in order to corroborate mine. I'm intrigued.

    GothamConstructionCoPitfall69sid3windrLEGOFan2
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    ^That is most excellent. Thank you for taking the time to post that info.
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    ^ You're welcome.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    Is there any way you could shoot a pic of the barcode that is on the box?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    edited June 2018
    This is the barcode on my box and the number that comes up when scanned. The mini barcodes on the seals do not scan at at for me and are exactly the same as your barcodes on the seal.
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    Is this any good?


    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    I know all of this sounds neurotic, but I am very OCD about my LEGO. I'm obsessed with mold types and how I sort my sets, pieces and minifigures. I even try to line up the ejection pin points on the pieces while building sets. I know it is not a big deal to most people. Any information is good information as far as I'm concerned :)
    YodaliciousMr_Crosspiratemania7DeeC2_Josh
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    ^^ Same barcode as mine. I don't know if that is good or not.
    Mr_Cross
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    I wonder if anyone has the regular version in an opened box so we could formulate a hypothesis or disprove the current evidence...
    Pitfall69
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    Pitfall69 said:
    I know all of this sounds neurotic, but I am very OCD about my LEGO. I'm obsessed with mold types and how I sort my sets, pieces and minifigures. I even try to line up the ejection pin points on the pieces while building sets. I know it is not a big deal to most people. Any information is good information as far as I'm concerned :)
    But it’s a very deal to some people. Me included. ;)
    Mr_CrossPitfall69
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    edited June 2018
    There's one going on ebay.com listing here the box looks thinner, I think the barcode is the same but the seal codes look to be 35S0... the thick plottens.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    It's the Schrodinger's smooth haired Leia. Have fun with that. ;)
    jnscoelhoMr_CrossPitfall69MextenRainstorm26MAGNINOMINISUMBRAsid3windr
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 1,673
    All this reminds me of my helmet:

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    Mr_Cross said:
    There's one going on ebay.com listing here the box looks thinner, I think the barcode is the same but the seal codes look to be 35S0... the thick plottens.
    That box on Ebay is definitely thinner than our box. So, the thinner plottens or err Plottens Thickens or Plikens. I must be going out of my mind. Maybe it isn't the barcode or the seal codes at all, but the size of the box.
    Mr_Cross
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    ^ that's what she said.

    sorry.
    BumblepantsPitfall69bandit778gmonkey76SprinkleOttermsanders
  • SMCSMC UKMember Posts: 1,673
    If it helps just had a look at my one and it's 8cm thick and has normal hair. Have pictures if you like.
    BumblepantsSumoLegoPitfall69Mr_CrossReesesPiecesmaaaaaaamsanders
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,702
    SMC said:
    If it helps just had a look at my one and it's 8cm thick and has normal hair. Have pictures if you like.
    If this is related at all to the post above yours that will be a no from me on the pictures.
    SumoLegoPitfall69Mr_Crossbandit778ReesesPiecesSprinkleOtterAstrobricksricecake
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    SMC said:
    Have pictures if you like.
    If this is related at all to the post above yours that will be a no from me on the pictures.
    That's what everyone said.
    BumblepantsMr_Crossbandit778ReesesPiecesgmonkey76pharmjodSprinkleOtterAstrobricks
  • Mr_CrossMr_Cross East Anglia (UK)Member Posts: 979
    ah, now, here's one with the same seals on the box, but not showing the barcode or depth, but I think that the barcode might be moot, because this one is also the thinner one but shows a clearer shot of the same barcode as on our boxes... what's needed is a thicker box with a regular haired Leia.

    @SMC, does your box open on the narrower edge or has it got the flip top lid?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    SMC said:
    If it helps just had a look at my one and it's 8cm thick and has normal hair. Have pictures if you like.
    SMC said:
    If it helps just had a look at my one and it's 8cm thick and has normal hair. Have pictures if you like.
    If this is related at all to the post above yours that will be a no from me on the pictures.
    My box is ribbed for my pleasure.

    Mr_Crossgmonkey76SprinkleOtterSumoLegoBumblepantssid3windr
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