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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    @MrJackson We're getting about the same so not much to be gained :P
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 863
    Krennic’s Shuttle got down to 18% off on Amazon. It’s no 27% off, and I’m sure I could probably do better if I were willing to go out and stalk Walmart or Target, but I pulled the trigger to avoid missing out altogether. 

    Y-Wing was 20% off last I checked. It’s a fun set. My last Y-wing was two generations back, so it was fun to build concurrently and see them side by side.  
    FowlerBricks
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?
    pharmjod
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    #70908 Scuttler has the retiring soon label at [email protected] US
    FowlerBricks
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 946
    Krennic’s Shuttle got down to 18% off on Amazon. It’s no 27% off, and I’m sure I could probably do better if I were willing to go out and stalk Walmart or Target, but I pulled the trigger to avoid missing out altogether. 

    Y-Wing was 20% off last I checked. It’s a fun set. My last Y-wing was two generations back, so it was fun to build concurrently and see them side by side.  
    No longer available on Amazon.  Missed it....oh well.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?
    I'm curious if it will continue to rise out of it is a typical spike since its disappeared everywhere. I got several at the $69.99 cyber Monday price and debating whether to just dump em now for a quick 80% return.
  • stefxanstefxan AustriaMember Posts: 57
    MrJackson said:
    Here in the Philadelphia metro area, we we looking forward to wind chills of -20, or something ridiculous like that.  Wanna trade? Fortunately, work called and is closed tomorrow and Friday cause busses are having issues and there's classrooms with heating systems that are also having issues. So, once my wife and kid recover from this stomach bug, do I build my monorail station for my city, my Ferris Wheel, Carousel, Assembly Square, London Bus, Porsche, or Super Star Destroyer first?
    Open all of them, throw it together in a big box and see what you could finish first *gg*
    Fizyx
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 1,653
    Hoping to get any thoughts on how easily people feel I could sell the following two sets. I've looked up the BL prices as well as number of sales, so I have that as a baseline, but I would likely post them here first and really don't have a sense what the desirability of the sets would be. 

    #8455 Back-Hoe Loader (no box, no instructions, 100% complete)
    #8674 Ferrari F1 Racer 1:8 (no box, no instructions, 100% complete, stickers applied with 1 or 2 of the smaller ones slightly peeling)

    Any thoughts or insights would be extremely appreciated!
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    pharmjod said:
    Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?
    I'm curious if it will continue to rise out of it is a typical spike since its disappeared everywhere. I got several at the $69.99 cyber Monday price and debating whether to just dump em now for a quick 80% return.
    I would dump at least enough to earn back the cash you spent on them. but i've always been of the mind to get my money back out right after the initial retirement spike
    pharmjodMAGNINOMINISUMBRAOnebricktoomanyPitfall69
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    dougts said:
    pharmjod said:
    Back on topic a bit, has anyone seen the price skyrocket for the #10248 Creator F40 Ferrari?
    I'm curious if it will continue to rise out of it is a typical spike since its disappeared everywhere. I got several at the $69.99 cyber Monday price and debating whether to just dump em now for a quick 80% return.
    I would dump at least enough to earn back the cash you spent on them. but i've always been of the mind to get my money back out right after the initial retirement spike
    I always did the same when reselling.
    I always (and still do) regretted doing it down the track!
    pharmjodOnebricktoomany
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    I'm playing with house money at this point. It's all LEGO purchased from LEGO profits. I'm not out any thing other than time.
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAOnebricktoomanyPitfall69
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 863
    tmgm528 said:
    Kinda in a similar predicament. Keeping my eye out on U and Y Wings from Rogue One on Amazon, currently sitting at 63 and 47 bucks. Odds Amazon drops these prices further?
    U Wing is down to 60 even.  And Krennic’s Shuttle dropped a little more. The Rogue One wave was one of the more satisfying ones in a while. I think I have now picked up everything. 
    OnebricktoomanyFowlerBricks
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 695
    Has the Creator Park Street Townhouse retired?
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,239
    @flord In Europe #31065 Park Street Townhouse and #31063 Beachside Vacation have already Retired. The other 2017 3-in-1 creator houses are still available here.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    #31065 already retired? Wasn't that set just released last year?
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 695
    ^ Yes. Must not have been a strong seller. Always meant to pick up a couple on a good deal.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    I managed to find 2 at a TRU near me and at 47 dollars a piece (though Im sure these were down to 39.99 at some point)
  • BooTheMightyHamsterBooTheMightyHamster Northern edge of London, just before the dragons...Member Posts: 1,296
    Do I need to worry about #10255 Assembly Square disappearing anytime soon?  I'm hoping to get that for my birthday in March, and don't want to get there and find that I've missed it.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    Do I need to worry about #10255 Assembly Square disappearing anytime soon?  I'm hoping to get that for my birthday in March, and don't want to get there and find that I've missed it.
    With LEGO who knows ultimately, but I see it being out until at least the end of the year.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,085
    As for the Assembly Square it is an anniversary set and somewhat special as a result. Therefore it could either last a while or go out the way of Town Hall. I would bet on it being around for a while yet as LEGO seems to be more into allowing everyone the option of buying a set at retail versus paying aftermarket prices.

    Also, we have a number of modulars still available that came out before this so I would assume one or two of those would go first.

    long story short no one knows but I bet you have time for that.
  • BooTheMightyHamsterBooTheMightyHamster Northern edge of London, just before the dragons...Member Posts: 1,296
    Cheers both!
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,187
    My best guess would be that the Detective Office would be the next most likely candidate - even before the older Parisian Restaurant.

    However, I would expect all of the current modulars to have extraordinary long lives.
    BumblepantsFizyxPitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435
    As for the Assembly Square it is an anniversary set and somewhat special as a result. Therefore it could either last a while or go out the way of Town Hall. I would bet on it being around for a while yet as LEGO seems to be more into allowing everyone the option of buying a set at retail versus paying aftermarket prices.

    Also, we have a number of modulars still available that came out before this so I would assume one or two of those would go first.

    long story short no one knows but I bet you have time for that.
    I think even the Town Hall lasted for about (or just under) 2 years though, for what that is worth.
    Fizyx
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 805
    I think even the Town Hall lasted for about (or just under) 2 years though, for what that is worth.

    www.retiringsets.com doesn't update nearly often enough imo, but they DO have this nice thing that they do where they have some graphs about the longevity of certain themes (Namely the Modular Building and the Star Wars UCS) that is very interesting to look at.  Honestly if I had time I would would really like to put together a similar database for as many sets as I could, and I might try to do so in the future. 

    Anyway, the Town Hall did have an abnormally short life span... but WAS still out for more than 2 years.  The lifespan of all the modular's around it all exceed 4 years, all the way back to Green Grocers, which was just over 2 years again.  I would be surprised if they cut AS as short as the Town Hall considering how much interest in the theme has grown in the last few years (along with LEGO as a whole), and also considering how much of an outlier the Town Hall production lifespan is in comparison to the other Modular Buildings.

    (You can find the graph for Modular Building product lifespan here: https://retiringsets.com/lego-modular-buildings-list/ )

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    My bet is on the Parisian Restaurant going next. Of course I could be wrong, but that is just what I'm going with. 
    Fizyx
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 805
    pharmjod said:
    My bet is on the Parisian Restaurant going next. Of course I could be wrong, but that is just what I'm going with. 
    Yeah, personally I'm torn between it and the Detective's Office.  They are the two oldest, with the PR being older by a year... but I think the PR has been wildly more popular than the DO as well.  I kind of think it will be the DO this year, and the PR maybe next year or the year after, but I don't have anything to base that speculation off of other than gut feelings.
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128

    If a modular goes then it will be Parisian restaurant,i think so as well.

    It is the last modular before they slightly changed the design starting with DO and it doesn't fit so well with the others, there is even a new restaurant in town now.

    It should do reasonably ok in the aftermarket as well I think,maybe similar to grand emporium. Its the best modular imo and will probably remain so for quiet some time.


    Fizyx
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027
    Not that I'm rooting for it... Well, the LEGO fan in me is... I think the DS could use an update... it has been so long since it was released (5 years) that it is due for a rehash. A Mark II version, a bit larger, better and more detailed minifigs, modern instructions (the current ones now show their age), and sell it for $499 with about 4,200 parts.
    Just looking back at some old posts - Aug 2013. He wasn't far off the piece count, spot on price.

    BumblepantsSumoLegoAanchir
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.
    pharmjodSumoLegoMAGNINOMINISUMBRABumblepantsjuggles7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,187
    prevere said:
    He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.
    Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 
    prevere
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    SumoLego said:
    prevere said:
    He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.
    Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 
    Exactly. I earn my credits by pedaling a stationary bike for 8 hours day ;)

    (That might go over alot of people's heads. First one that understands what I meant, gets a cookie...um...I mean biscuit)
    pharmjodRonyar
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 540
    Pitfall69 said:
    SumoLego said:
    prevere said:
    He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.
    Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 
    Exactly. I earn my credits by pedaling a stationary bike for 8 hours day ;)

    (That might go over alot of people's heads. First one that understands what I meant, gets a cookie...um...I mean biscuit)
    Anyone that knows what love is will understand.
    Pitfall69pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    @Pitfall69 do you pedal to wraithbabes?
    eggshenPitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    pharmjod said:
    @Pitfall69 do you pedal to wraithbabes?
    Of course. Who wouldn't???
    SprinkleOtter
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    Pitfall69 said:
    SumoLego said:
    prevere said:
    He's probably on the cryptocurrency forum nowadays.
    Blah, cryptocurrency... how pásse! 
    Exactly. I earn my credits by pedaling a stationary bike for 8 hours day ;)

    (That might go over alot of people's heads. First one that understands what I meant, gets a cookie...um...I mean biscuit)
    You can blame me - if I didnt know. 

    Try to shame me~
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 946
    edited January 2018
    ^^ Symbolical messaging.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    Does anyone think the old Death Star will benefit from the price increase of the current Death Star? I haven't seen it yet, but was just wondering what you guys thought.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027
    By old and new, do you mean the past and current DS, or the current and the next DS? :-)
    bandit778pharmjodPitfall69Onebricktoomany
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 1,973
    Yes. :)
    Pitfall69Onebricktoomanygmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,187
    bandit778 said:
    ...Youngsters just don't appreciate the tradition of having that argument in this thread...
    Sometimes parents just don't understand!
    bandit778jhuntin1gmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • FizyxFizyx ColoradoMember Posts: 805
    Back on topic: I'm trying to decide if #40290 is going to be popular after this year.  It obviously has quite a bit of appeal to the kinds of fans that comment here, and I'm definitely getting one for myself... but I have a few sets that are highly unlikely to go on sale any time in the near future that are on my list, and I am in a position to purchase them on Jan. 28th, so I'm considering trying to get 2 or 3 extra #40290s to keep on hand for a few years at least, since they're small and easy to store without going out of my way. Of course, it depends how many LEGO made and if they're going to flood the market with them, but for the price point, and the relatively short offer period, I don't think there will be so many that the swamp the market.  I'm pretty sure it will be worth it for a few bucks at least, but am wondering what the rest of you all think about the set.

    (Of course, this is all assuming that all the boxes arrive in good shape and not crushed by the large set they ship with >.< )

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,187
    Is it going to perform like the Gingerbread House or like the three Classic Promos?  (Space, Pirate, Castle.)

    I suspect this will be popular.
    FizyxshikadiFollowsCloselygmonkey76SprinkleOtter
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027
    edited January 2018
    I think it is going to be a £20 or so set (for immediate future) and will only hold value if unopened. Apart from the 60 years brick, there doesn't seem to be much in there that is hard to find and it is mainly cheap parts. So it's about 20% off if you sell it. So not bad if you are buying exclusives, not great if you are buying regular retail sets.
    Fizyx
  • shikadishikadi TRU AlumniMember Posts: 91
    What are the set #s for the classic promos you're talking about? I think I missed those.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,262
    @shikadi the classic promos were:
    #5004419 Classic Knights Minifigure
    #5003082 Classic Pirate Minifigure
    #5002812 Classic Spaceman Minifigure
    SumoLegoredarmyshikadixiahna
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 593
    Were the Pirate and Space promos before the Knight?  I don't remember seeing those.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027
    Space 2014
    Pirate 2015
    Knight 2016
    shikadimonstblitz
  • bricktuarybricktuary EuropeMember Posts: 470
    Did they do well then? 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,886
    I got a ton of the space ones but none of the pirate or knight ones. I'd love to trade someone.
    Pitfall69MAGNINOMINISUMBRA
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