Shopping at LEGO or Amazon?
Please use our links: LEGO.comAmazon
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

14445474950680

Comments

  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    ^^ Never mind. Found it. http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego/p1

    Of course according to the list, Pet Shop and GE both are slated for EOL in Dec. 2013. So let's see, since it also says FB is Dec. 2012, we'll have four modulars on sale for most all of 2012, but only two in 2014 (assuming a new one comes in 2013)? I don't find that likely. And that would mean FB, by most accounts, the least desired modular, would have had the longest production run? Even w/ the "missing bag" snafu, that wouldn't make any sense.

    I guess that's why this thread is called "Predictions" though isn't it.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ i.e. MMV
    How about IF ?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited February 2012
    ^ another good i.e. But then, people might say it goes with PotC :P
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Anyone think POTC will have some major discounts via SAH before it is done? Or are we counting on a tru bogo at TRU or Target Clearance to build up stock?

    Great long-term potential, but I think the series will be active long into 2013. Just a feeling. I'd hate to buy a bunch now and sit on it for an additional year.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    DA is licensed, and the MMV and IF are not. I doubt TLG will carry a single licensed HP product through the end of 2013 while EOLing the rest. JMO.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    ^ Good point on the license vs. non-license.

    Here is an interesting article I just ran across that is an interview with the Lego brand relations director - figure if anyone were to know when HP wraps, it would be him. A couple of points from the interview:

    1) he confirms that the "six or seven" active HP products are to be phased out mid-2012 (no mention that any - read DA - will stay past that date)

    2) he confirms the license with Warner Brothers expires with the last film

    3) he clearly alludes to the fact that they would like to continue to develop the HP franchise if Rowling et. al. decide to continue pushing the franchise after the films are over, but that is not an option at this point (at least when the interview was conducted in July 2011)

    http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2011/07/15/lego-harry-potter/
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2012
    I guess they could come up with a multitude of additional sets; however, I just don't think it has the staying power of SW (as far as licensed sets go). Space vs. witchcraft...no contest!

    Somehow I don't see a "The Craft Wars" series coming to cable anytime soon either. In fact, the thought of it seems kind of painful to me (or else my wife is just playing with the voodoo doll again).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I think the real problem with HP is that without "new" material to keep the interest coming, Lego has other things to devote shelf space and sets to.

    I don't think they would have renewed Star Wars for another 10 years if the Clone Wars cartoon wasn't out and if there was no new movies coming out. Yes, even the 3D rerelease counts somewhat... Now we just need Ep 7-9, done by someone other than Lucas of course. ;)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Noticed that DA is $195 on Amazon. And given the great analysis from avoiceoreason from that article. Just maybe DA is gone by mid-year?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Now we just need Ep 7-9, done by someone other than Lucas of course. ;)
    Emphasize: "done by someone other than Lucas of course.
    Amanda1983
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    How about Nolan?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^Good god, no. Nolan puts Lucas's cringeworthiness to shame.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @prevere DA prices got over $200 on Ebay a little while ago as well. Amazon always goes higher once "Amazon" itself is out of stock. I've seen DS jump up over the years as well . . .
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    While Nolan is a great filmmaker I don't think he would be the man for the job.

    But this is a discussion for an entirely different thread.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I'm curious on thoughts of Collectible Series Figs long-term potential. Excluding series 1 of course which was a fast moneymaker.
  • neinameneiname Member Posts: 18
    I'm curious on thoughts of Collectible Series Figs long-term potential. Excluding series 1 of course which was a fast moneymaker.
    I feel that they are grossly overproduced. In future years you may be able to sell a set for maybe double what you paid but that's a big IF and there are far better items to buy.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2012
    Wow...I was able to pick up one of the last FBs listed on Amazon for $150 before the price shot up. I realize they are still available at [email protected] for $150, but shipping and taxes would push it to nearly $180. Hopefully, it won't be the dreaded 39R1 batch...

    Was also able to grab a couple 7936 sets before they were completely gone. They are listed for $33 at Amazon now. [email protected] sent an email stating that they had shipped, so that's good news.

    Now to try and save for the new TH. I really think this design will do well, but agree that it is kind of an odd set for the modulars. THs are generally located in town squares, which doesn't fit the modular motif. Either way, it looks like a great build...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    @Farmer_John - don't be surprised if FB comes back into stock at Amazon, something tells me this set isn't done yet.

    If it was going before Town Hall showed up, it would have gone already, it may be here for a few more months yet. Perhaps until Christmas.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2012
    @LFT - Yep...I agree. But I will be surprised if any of the modulars are part of any future BF sale or are marked down at [email protected] I think the best opportunity going forward to purchase a modular on the cheap will be BOGO sales from TRU. I would love to get two THs on a BOGO sale (assuming TRU doesn't have a huge markup on it, which I expect they will).
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ TRU seems to be getting 'smarter' about certain sets. I don't think they let you put 2 FB's in your cart at the same time. Do they? Course, you can add a FB and PS or such. But, that means you may have to get a PB a year before you want to.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^When that happens, try FAO.com. They allow multiples of the same, at least on the last President's Day sale.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2012
    (I don't think there is a thread on this topic. I couldn't find one. If there is, this one may be deleted or reference the other thread.)

    Which to buy? Which will sell the best later? Which set do you like the best? And why? I must admit I have both, but have not assembled either of them. I like the dark red sails on the QAR and it's a larger ship. But, the all black of the BP looks nice too. Both have some great minifigs and it looks like the POTC ones are some of the most detailed in any theme. But, I think the BP gets the nod for best minifigs for Davy Jones and Maccus. I think both are exclusive. The BP is 200 pieces smaller, but $20 cheaper, so I guess neither set has an advantage there. If I am correct, the BP is in all of the POTC films, which would be a plus? From what I've read on the forum it 'seems' that the BP is the preferred set, between the two. So, I'm thinking the BP would be the best to buy and will be the most sought after when EOL'd. What are your thoughts?
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    Any predictions on 7869 (Battle for Geonosis)? Shall i buy it now at VIP-Double sale (and also grab some free mini tie-fighter)? I guess this set won't EOL that soon,but since it contains Captain Rex this seems to be a nice set to keep on for a while,what do you think?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2012
    ^ You get a green light from me. I think it is a TRU exclusive and they sell it for $50 now. And, it is rarely on sale or available via BOGO. Personally I think the set will do very well when EOL'd. As you pointed out it has Capt Rex, but it is also exclusive (which makes it a bit hard to find), and I think it is a very playable set, and with double points a pretty good price. Probably cheaper than you'll ever find it, unless you are fortunate. When I first saw the set it was one of my picks, so I have gotten several over the months.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    I would say check out the reviews firstly, but personally, I think QAR is far, far better than the Black Pearl, and I own and have built both.

    In some ways I found the Black Pearl a disappointment, but I can't put my finger exactly on why.

    I would even go as far as to say that I prefer the QAR to the Imperial Flagship.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712
    Anyone think POTC will have some major discounts via SAH before it is done? Or are we counting on a tru bogo at TRU or Target Clearance to build up stock?

    Great long-term potential, but I think the series will be active long into 2013. Just a feeling. I'd hate to buy a bunch now and sit on it for an additional year.
    From the sense of things, it seems that PoTC sells really well.. When it is clearanced :-)
    So My guess is that many of the sets will eventually run their course with stock still available in which case I can see LEGO putting it on 'sale' to remove remaining stock.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712
    I'm curious on thoughts of Collectible Series Figs long-term potential. Excluding series 1 of course which was a fast moneymaker.
    I feel that they are grossly overproduced. In future years you may be able to sell a set for maybe double what you paid but that's a big IF and there are far better items to buy.

    Agreed.. I think at this point only series 1 and series 2 will really increase in the future (not now as even series 1 has stagnated I think) but the other series (3-6) will be more useful for unique parts that come with the figures IMO. Although I think a few figures will still warrant decent prices (like Exosuit guy and the Spartans, Romans, vikings, etc.) only because of the multiples that can be used.

    BUT LEGO shot themselves in the foot by saying that they wanted to make these available for kids everywhere for a neat little mystery pack, then set out to make limited quantities for Series 1 as 'collectable' sometimes I wonder if LEGO has a different idea of 'collectable' than the masses and cause them to become super sought after.
    But to be far this is how they really SHOULD be.. as I believe they were really meant for kids, not for adults to horde them to sell on eBay.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I'm curious on thoughts of Collectible Series Figs long-term potential. Excluding series 1 of course which was a fast moneymaker.
    I feel that they are grossly overproduced. In future years you may be able to sell a set for maybe double what you paid but that's a big IF and there are far better items to buy.

    That's what I'm thinking too. But I do wonder (as I think about LEGO about every 8 seconds), that maybe like sportscards, some of these series could have less production than others.

    For example - we'll tell the tale of 1990 Score Football. This was a terribly overproduced set. So when time came around for dealers to purchase the "update supplement", many passed on it. The update series became a very valuable set for many years after that - because of scarcity (and partly because of the Emmit Smith rookie).

    I doubt LEGO would tailor production based on retail ordering. But not out of the question. Personally, I remember seeing Series 4 in stores briefly, replaced by Series 5 that was and still is everywhere.

    If public demand declines for these, and less are sold, it's possible you could see a "scarce" series, other than Series 1 of course.
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 88
    I own the IF, QAR and the BP. The positive about the BP is that it is all black and for a pirate ship, all blackness looks cool. The disappointment for the BP is that it feels very small, compared to the QAR and certainly the IF.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    @madforlegos

    I hope Lego doesn't make anything for adults to horde and sell on ebay.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Actually if Lego is smart (and I believe they are), they intentional make some sets more rare than others. As a product manager for a product line, I would try to "entice" purchasers that plan to resell into purchasing more sets (and a greater variety of sets) as they try to second guess which set will be the next UCS MF. It may not be my primary consideration as a product manager, but it would be a consideration all the same. Some EOL'd sets may be unintentionally successful in the secondary market, but it is possible that some may also be planned through a limited supply.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, all eggs in one basket is a bad, bad thing. :-)
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    @cloaked7 - As this is mostly a personal decision, we discourage these types of discussions. But since you are also asking secondary mark value, I will merge this with the thread that will not be named.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2012
    I have built the IF, but not the QAR or BP (yet). My reasoning is simple: I chose to build the IF and not the others because I only wanted to open one and the IF was the largest, most expensive, and had the best feedback, and therefore, was probably the best build of the three. And yes...it was a great build that I highly recommend. That said, there is a certain "cool factor" with the BP (an all black pirate ship) that is hard to overlook. Furthermore, the BP is licensed and will not be for sale as long as the IF was. Add to that the potential of a Flying Dutchman (another ship for the BP to battle) being released (although I'm not convinced), and it could drive the demand for BPs on the secondary.

    I believe the performance of the IF will be a good indication of how the BP will perform. Furthermore, I think the BP will outperform the Brickbeard's Bounty (I like this set also), which had a lot fewer pieces for the same price.

    Amazon periodically has the BPs for $80-85, and I try to grab one when I can afford it. I will ultimately build it (next Christmas?) and setup both models (IF and BP) facing off at "general quarters." Argh matey...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, I had noticed several posts about snagging BP's. Not so much about the QAR. So, I was curious if people think the BP will 'out perform' the QAR in the EOL market. If so... Didn't know if it is due to the fact that it's in all the POTC movies? It's black? The minifigs? It will be EOL's sooner? Not as many made? Maybe all of the above?

    Yes, I too think it will do well when EOL'd. I figure not as many were made of the BP as were the IF. The IF was out for 2 years. The BP may not even be out for half that long.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^^ That's fine @Yellowcastle I would never intentionally break any forum rules. Thanks for moving the thread.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,275
    I've built my BP but not my QAR or IF yet. Compared to some of the older ones (barracuda, brickbeard, clipper) I was impressed with the build and detail. The full black definitely looks great but from the pictures I've seen of the QAR next to the BP I was impressed with its size and am looking forward to building it and the IF.

    I would guess though that the BP will do better in the long run in the after market due to it being the iconic ship throughout the series, even though its in jar the whole time in the 4th movie.

    Really hoping the rumors of a flying dutchman are true. Always love to see the ships come out even if they are licensed material.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    I've built all 3 (IF, QAR, BP). The IF is the most impressive, complete, and best build. But the QAR is, hands-down, the best looking display model of the 3. The Sharp crimson sails, the flames, the skeletons all make this ship really Pop. All 3 ships are on display, but the QAR is the one I display in the most prominent location. The BP is too small and contains too little in the way of color (I know it's true to the source material, but still). The one thing it does have over the QAR is an actual cabin however.

    so, back to the question:
    * looking for resale value? well, the ship has already sailed on the IF, so the BP probably has the better resale in general compared to the QAR, primarily due to the "name" factor
    * looking for the best build with most detail? Definitely the IF
    * looking for the model that "shows" best sitting on a shelf or desk? QAR
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Tough call on QAR and BP. As already discussed, they both have their own strengths.

    QAR -- better, bigger ship, more expensive
    BP -- all black, more iconic, figs

    I buy both but simply have a lot more BP's because of the recent sales. The sales will probably affect the market on the BP's in the short run. But down the road??? Either way, these big ships always appreciate.

    But to be far this is how they really SHOULD be.. as I believe they were really meant for kids, not for adults to horde them to sell on eBay.
    Lol, guess I'm still a kid then :P

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2012
    @dougts - Thanks for the insight on the builds, and I agree with your analysis.

    @gmpirate - Yep...big ships always appreciate, and I expect both the QAR and BP will do in the aftermarket.

    Would love to see a UCS build of a ship or train of any sort released, but that's the topic for another thread.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    I have all 3 also, (QAR, IF, BP) in that order. The QAR is still my favorite for all the same reasons @dougts stated. The red sails with skulls, that's the money shot compared to the other two.

    I have a lot of sets built and on display right now, like Imperial Shuttle, UCS AT-ST, Modulars (FB, GE, PS), Ferrari Enzo & F1, Creator Houses, etc. But when my buddies came over (non-Lego fans), they were mesmerized by the Queen Anne. They kept going back to look at that one in particular. That kind of objective opinion speaks volumes to the QAR's visual appeal.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I've stocked up on Hogwart's castle this week.. Bought 8 at $97.99 but I put one together as I didn't have one yet. I don't think they'll appreciate as well as Diagon Alley, but they are the iconic centerpiece of the line so I think they'll do fairly well in 5+ years. Most stores where I live haven't had one in stock since Christmas, so I'm guessing it will be gone soon.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2012
    I've stocked up on Hogwart's castle this week.. Bought 8 at $97.99 but I put one together as I didn't have one yet.
    Okay, I give...where did you get them for $98?
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    There's a store here in the Pacific Northwest called Fred Meyers. I found 4 on sale at that price at one store and searched the rest of the city and found 4 more.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Ahhh...Fred Meyers. I've shopped there in Alaska, but they are definitely not this far east.

    I do think the HP Castle will do fine within 18 months after it's EOL'd.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    8053 x2 (Mobile crane) or 8043 x1 (Motorized Excavator)... which would you buy right now for the same $200? I know the 8053 is already eol'd but value one year from now?
    any thoughts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    If the Motorized Bulldozer is any indication, I would get the Motorized Excavator in a heartbeat. That, and the fact that it's still for sale at a reasonable price.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2012
    ^^ Same here. Personally I would go (and have gone) for the Excavator. During the TRU BOGO the price was $150 each. I got 2. I think it will shoot up when EOL'd. Such a nice set, with power functions, remote control. People seem to be drawn to power functions and remote control sets. Plus the only construction set more iconic than an excavator is a bulldozer. The 8275 dozer now sells for $400 on eBay, retailed for $150.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    edited March 2012
    I've just recently got back into Lego and was curious about this.. I know of the Cloud City Boba Fett and chrome C3PO, but what about others? I saw that Mad Eye Moody and Umbridge are selling for around $50, are there many minifigs that expensive?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^I wouldn't say 'many' but there are quite a few that have a hefty price tag. Greedo comes right to mind.
Sign In or Register to comment.

Shopping at LEGO.com or Amazon?

Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon

Recent discussions Categories Privacy Policy Brickset.com

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.

As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.