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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,274
    ^ 200% profit on how many? 100 of them? =)
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    The funhouse is hard to find.. I've never seen one in my local stores, just online. I have a bunch of batcaves, but I don't expect much out of them.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    At least the prices of the Bane and Poison Ivy mini figure will become reasonable now :P
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^If they can only make a "Scarecrow/Mr. Freeze/Killer Croc" Battle pack now, it would be icing!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ 200% profit on how many? 100 of them? =)
    Funny... you are a funny guy... ;)

    43 of them at the moment... since you asked... :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Ahh, Amazon just ran out of 10215...

    Assuming they don't restock (and I wouldn't think they will, isn't this set EOL now? Or is it a trick?), the next few months will tell an interesting tale...

    How long until it goes above RRP? Will it be another Home One or General Grievous?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Sure didn't seem very popular while a current set. Do unpopular sets end up being sought after sets when EOL'd? One wouldn't think so. I only have 2, one to keep, one to sell. And, I think I got both for $70, so I think I'll be OK on the one I sell. Yes, it will be interesting.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited February 2012
    ^Problem here is... Amazon is out... but EVERYWHERE else still has them in stock. It's been 40% off through LEGO for quite awhile, to boot... so I wouldn't expect this set to hit RRP for quite awhile after it's unavailable. Though the UCS Millennium Falcon wasn't a very popular at model until it was retired, so maybe... The big difference there was, once LEGO marked it down, it was gone in less than a week, however. So I'll be curious to see how this set performs. I think it'd be the first UCS ship to not command well over RRP almost instantly.
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    I saw 1 Funhouse at my local TRU and it was marked up to $89.99 CAD ($49.99 CAD on Lego.com)!!! I turned it down.

    But yes, I cannot wait to have this set.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    My TRU has a pallet of Funhouses (ok, at least 12). I wish I wanted it. Getting them for ~$33/ea. after BOGO would be sweet.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,642
    The handful I've mentioned this to think I'm nuts, but I'm starting to get worried about 10219 going away suddenly.

    The expectation seems to be that this will take the place of the Emerald Night as the "premium" train in LEGOs product line for around two years. But I note that the previous Maersk branded set was only on the shelves for about six months.

    10219 seems to be getting harder and harder to find outside of [email protected] It feels like nobody is getting restocked once they run out.

    Does anybody have any educated guesses on what is happening here?
    Well I will say that the Maersk cargo ship set is a bad example of what Maersk sets normally do, you have to remember that particular set was out a previous two times before this run.
    Also TRU , and Target have the cargo train set available (although TRU is sold out due to the BOGO sale)so I am not sure what you mean of it selling out everywhere, although if Target keeps trying to sell it for 162 dollars I think they will have them for a while..... I thought Walmart had them but I guess if they did the entry is missing from their site now. Also keep in mind it IS a popular set.. I think a lot of people are also buying it for the Maersk blue brick (which I believe is why many people bought the cargo ships- aside from them being cool models).

    So could this be a change of the Maersk set runs? I doubt it.
    If we happen to see information come out about another 'exclusive' train set then I would show concern.. My guess is this will be about for at least 2 years..
    Like others have said, when in doubt, buy one ASAP if you are concerned about it selling out and going EOL.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    ^ I was one of those that just missed out on the Maersk Cargo Ship. I figured a product of that size would be around at least one year, and was saving up some VIP points to purchase on the cheap. Those things happen and they make me more apt to pull the trigger on a set sooner than I would have otherwise.

    As for trains, I personally think the yellow cargo train will be next to be EOL'd. It's been around longer than the other sets (I believe), and TLG recently came out with a newer red cargo train. The yellow cargo train doesn't use flex track (I dislike flex track), but the newer red cargo train does. The yellow train is also more expensive than the red train by $20 with about the same piece count (probably because of the flex track). I like the yellow color better for trains than the red color...just me. I expect the yellow train to be gone before the end of the year...
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ actually both cargo train sets come with flex track. I was hoping the Yellow one would come back down in price at TRU. It was MSRP before it was jacked up +$20 around Xmas time. And i think Target followed suit. I agree it'll likely be the first to go - although with the jacked up prices it'll stick around those places for a while.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ My bad...it does come with flex tracks. I have one, but haven't opened it yet and didn't see the track in the online manual.

    I agree that the set is too expensive. It's kind of weird that there are now two cargo trains out. It seems superfluous.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,642
    ^---I personally thing the Maersk train at Target for 162 is just insane...
    I agree though @Farmer_John I think the next to go is the yellow one because for 180 is it just too expensive IMO I only got these when they were BOGO (back when their TRU price was retail)

    The thing that bugs me was I believe one reason why the trains moved to RC was production costs, which you would presume the RC train sets would have gone down in price (or at least stayed at the typical 99 for passenger train and 150 for a cargo train), instead they went up ( I mean besides for inflation, I get they should go up a bit due to that but still), and for what, a bit more track?? Id rather have more train cars and buy extra track to be honest....
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    Ahh, Amazon just ran out of 10215...

    Assuming they don't restock (and I wouldn't think they will, isn't this set EOL now? Or is it a trick?), the next few months will tell an interesting tale...

    How long until it goes above RRP? Will it be another Home One or General Grievous?
    They can't give that thing away. At under 700 pieces, it shouldn't have cost more than $70 in the first place. I don't think that *ever* gets back even close to RRP. They're selling MISB successfully for $50 on eBay right now. Lol.
  • starfire2starfire2 Phoenix AZMember Posts: 1,329
    edited February 2012
    I was in the Chandler, AZ Lego store tonight and there were no more Fire Brigades. There were other modulars in it's spot. Is this the end of Fire Brigade? Are they making room for the new Town Hall?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    They can't give that thing away. At under 700 pieces, it shouldn't have cost more than $70 in the first place. I don't think that *ever* gets back even close to RRP. They're selling MISB successfully for $50 on eBay right now. Lol.
    You would think, but the price on Amazon quickly jumped to RRP, sitting at $99.95 right now.

    That might come down a bit once more people start listing it for sale there, but that is honestly better than I expected.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I was in the Chandler, AZ Lego store tonight and there were no more Fire Brigades. There were other modulars in it's spot. Is this the end of Fire Brigade? Are they making room for the new Town Hall?
    I would think so, but who really knows... FB has been called for months now, and yet here it is... Amazon has plenty in stock, or so it seams, my local Lego store keeps getting restocked, so it may be going in a month, or a year...

    Nothing stops Lego from having 4 modulars on the shelf... I wouldn't think they would, I would personally believe that major demand has been met, but what the heck do I really know? :)

    I suppose the next two months will tell the tale, since Town Hall is launching March 1st.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    As long as its here for double points March ;) Was "trying" to control spending until then but the current BOGO and Amazon stuff has bled me a bit. My Paypal account is getting too low :(

    I laid off the buying for a couple years but hopefully starting next year my Paypal balance will start supporting my ongoing purchases!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,642
    Yeah, BOGO hit me pretty hard too.

    But I think FB is done, then again everyone said this in each of the past 4-5 months so who knows... BUt I really do think we are getting to the last 'hurrah' of them as I just do not see LEGO wanting to make that many modulars at a time.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I don't think it is, but I guess we will find out soon. I'm not worried about it because amazon still has a ton to sell, so I can still get one from them if Lego discontinues it soon.
  • jpczjpcz Member Posts: 95
    How do you know how many amazon has left of a product? I've seen people referring to numbers left, I have no idea how to find out but could see it being a useful tool
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Put the item in your cart, then edit cart and change the number to up to 999. It will refresh with how many are supposedly available.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Are you guys sure that's an accurate way of determining inventory? For example I was able to add 999 of Tower Bridge, UCS Shuttle and the Pet Shop to my cart. Are those not sets that are soon to be EOL'd? It did work for MMV where it shows 33 left in stock....
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    ^That is what I am afraid of. I hope it is accurate. I want to wait and see if [email protected] will offer Free Shipping in conjunction with the Double VIP Points. If they do, then I will purchase from [email protected], if they don't I am going to buy the FB on Amazon.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    That is why I said "supposedly". Who knows how accurate it is.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Are you guys sure that's an accurate way of determining inventory? For example I was able to add 999 of Tower Bridge, UCS Shuttle and the Pet Shop to my cart. Are those not sets that are soon to be EOL'd? It did work for MMV where it shows 33 left in stock....
    I can't even begin to fathom that the Pet Shop is going out anytime soon. That's the latest modular behind Town Hall, and I'm assuming the Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium will go out first.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited February 2012
    Pet Shop has a long, long way to go unless LEGO dramatically changes how modulars are handled.

    Tentative EOLs:

    FB (now/very soon)
    GE (a year from now-ish)
    PS (spring 2014)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Of the three you have listed, PS is my least favorite. I may be out of touch with the rest of the "Modular Community," but it's just my opinion.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    Of the three you have listed, PS is my least favorite. I may be out of touch with the rest of the "Modular Community," but it's just my opinion.
    I agree with you on this one. It is so "boring".
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I'm not on top of the modulars so I just figured it had been out for awhile. The only modulars that really strike my fancy are Green Grocer and Corner Cafe.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited February 2012
    Of the three you have listed, PS is my least favorite. I may be out of touch with the rest of the "Modular Community," but it's just my opinion.
    If we exclude Market Street, I'd put Pet Shop's quality somewhere in the middle as far as the whole package is concerned. The exterior is pretty plain, but the interior is far superior to lackluster sets like the Green Grocer and the Grand Emporium. As such, I'd group Pet Shop with Cafe Corner (though I fully admit Cafe Corner gets a huge boost for me personally by virtue of being a corner building - if a fifth corner ever shows up, I will get rid of my Cafe Corner post-haste), while Fire Brigade stands tall at the top of the heap, though Town Hall looks like it will give it a run for its money.

    On topic, I can't imagine LEGO is manufacturing Fire Brigade anymore, and it will probably fade out well ahead of any Black Friday 'clearance' discounts.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The FB and the new TH are my favorites too. There's just something about a fire station and the new TH looks fantastic. Very reminiscent of the old towns I grew up in.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    The FB seems to take a lot of heat (no pun intended). A couple months ago, my 9 year old son wanted to get a modular, the FB was the first one he wanted. I tried to talk him into the GE but he insisted. It was a wonderful build and such a great building. No regrets. We built the GE 2 weeks ago and had a blast with it also. Now we are trying to figure out which of the next 2 to get. He loves the cellar part of the PS and also the fact that you can separate it into 2 buildings. Between those cool features and the cheaper price, we likely will go with that instead of the TH, at least in the more immediate future.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^^ FB will be clearanced on BF in the USA (along with MMV). It is the least desirable of all the modulars. If you are into reselling modulars keep your powder dry for GE....FB is a dog comparatively. The end of 2013 is much more interesting for resellers IMO (GE, Diagon Alley, Tower Bridge, Maersk Train). You will want a boatload of spare cash in 18 months for that lineup....plan accordingly.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^I highly doubt FB or MMV will make it to BF.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2012
    ^^^ A lot of people simply like fire stations, fire fighting sets, etc. At the age of 70 I got my dad into LEGOS as a hobby because he couldn't get outside much, etc. I got him into the houses and he loved them, so he looked in the LEGO catalog at the time and was instantly drawn to the FB, what with the fire fighting theme, the fire truck, etc. The GE was available then, along with the Emerald Night, both of which I thought he would have liked instead of the FB.

    Just saying, You never know what may draw a person to a particular set. People do have a lot in common and in an overall way people tend to like the same things. But, we also tend to think other people will like what we like, and that's isn't always true. So, sometimes it's difficult to know what other people will be drawn too. Just take this tread, some people don't like the FB at all, some people like it the best. Go figure.

    I read a post where someone said the UCS MF wasn't popular unti it was EOL'd. How many people saw that coming?
    Amanda1983
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    I have built Cafe Corner, Green Grocer, and Fire Brigade...Fire Brigade was my favorite build, even though I had initially ranked it as 3rd out of those 3 when I initially set out to build them.

    I have no idea why...maybe it's the fun of putting the Fire Engine behind the roll-up door, or the ping-ping table upstairs, was just more fun than the other 2.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I read a post where someone said the UCS MF wasn't popular unti it was EOL'd. How many people saw that coming?
    I don't think the model itself was unpopular, per se... but a $500 model was just very unattractive to a lot of people. I forget what they clearanced them out at ($400 sounds right), and this may also have had to do with the fact that they announced that they were ceasing production on the set, but it was gone within a week after that.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Well, the Level Crossing (7936) is now gone for Lego [email protected] I think this will easily go up to $50 in the next six months. Frankly, I'm surprised it was available for sale at [email protected] for as long as it was. Train accessories seem to do well in the aftermarket. It's already up to $32 at Amazon...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2012
    The Winter Toy Shop looks to be already selling for $80+ on eBay. What do you think it will be selling for Christmas 2012?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    And, a follow up question. Do you think the Post Office and Bakery will do as well with EOL'd? The Bakery is next up for EOL. You think it will be around for Christmas 2012?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I assume the bakery will still be here this Christmas. At least for Black Friday, anyway. I'd also guess that the Toy Shop will spike at Christmas when people realize LEGO isn't bringing it back again (if this remains the case, of course).
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,274
    Damn, didnt know 7936 EOL-ed. I had a couple in my [email protected] cart waiting with the other stuff for the double VIP. Thought something was missing when I looked over what I had in my cart this morning. Just grabbed some of the Amazon ones. Wanted a couple for my train setup.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^I hear ya, I missed that one too. I know they have made a few cool train crossings before, so hopefully they will make another one soon. Too bad, that would have been a really great addition to a train layout.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,917
    7936 certainly isn't the best train crossing compared to the other crossings LEGO has produced over the years. IMO, 7866 is one of the best, although I never got any 12V trains, this one is remote controlled and it looks great.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I bought 4 Hogwart's castles a few weeks ago and kept one.. They're going for about $100 plus shipping on eBay though, will probably be a few years after it's EOL'd before they gain value. Should be one of the better long term sets though, being the iconic centerpiece.
  • stephenvwstephenvw Lexington, KYMember Posts: 89
    I was curious on everyones opinion on 8110 Unimog. I see it's on backorder on [email protected] and got kind of nervous. I've been holding out on buying this set but now I'm thinking of pulling the trigger in case it gets EOL'ed anytime soon. What are your thoughts? Will it be discontinued anytime soon? Also, if you own this set do you like it and was it a fun build?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    8110 Unimog just came out last year, it is the most recent flagship Technic set, it shouldn't be going anywhere for a few years...
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