Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

SumoLego · September 2017

CCC said:
...Many people collect things that are common and low valued...

@CCC - I'm not sure how I missed the original post, but I'm always happy to see the debunking of truly uninformed suppositions and conclusions.

And I get tired of belabouring that the AFOL / Collector community pales in comparison to the 'civilian' market that purchases the bulk of LEGO product. (Not that we need examples, but an excellent one is that there is little discussion of Friends in the AFOL or Collector community, but somewhere around 30% of the total product sales is Friends.)

Also... Beanie Babies, Porsche sells cars, Rolex sells watches, LEGO doesn't make a dime off of the secondary market. And collectors often focus on rare items that are not intended to be rare - and don't become sought-after until many, many years later.

FollowsClosely · September 2017

^
Reverse image search proves it is a scammer!

http://kazza.id.au/10179/
http://bigpictures.club/resize.php?img=http://kazza.id.au/10179/images/mf01.jpg

caterham7 · September 2017

brclark82 said:

Any thoughts on the Saturn V...it has been "temporarily sold out" for a few weeks now. The word temporarily obviously gives the impression that it will eventually be back in stock but curious if this may be one of those short runs with just a few available when it does come back.

I also havent been paying much attention lately so feel free to update me if this has already been discussed.

Available on the shelf in Leicester Square at 1am today.

M_Boss · September 2017

datsunrobbie said:

https://newyork.craigslist.org/brk/tag/d/lego-star-warsmillennium/6301316480.html

#10179 for sale in NYC for at least $500. Not mine, just posting for reference. Was posted to craigslist two days before release of #75192. Anybody seeing similar sales?

https://houston.craigslist.org/for/d/rare-highly-collectible-lego/6235512042.html
(not mine either)

Switchfoot55 · September 2017

So I'm getting way ahead of myself on this one, but just curious what thoughts may be on the potential future draw for Destiny's Bounty? I have any opportunity to pick one up for $90 which seems like a great deal for what it is. I love the set, but if i bought it, I'd be tempted to sit on it. I know it's not comparable to the older pirate ships, but think this price may be a once in a life time opportunity.

gmonkey76 · September 2017

@Switchfoot55 I'd jump at the chance to pick one up at that price. My plan is to get one and modify it for the sky bound pirates so they have a proper ship to go with my other pirates.

CCC · September 2017

^^ Buy it.

Is the opportunity only for one? If more, buy more at that price.

Yodalicious · September 2017

I'd jump on the Bounty for $90. I do think we'll see it discounted in the future as well though. It's a $160 set selling at the Walmarts and Targets of the world. Just look at the past $120 and $140 sets that those stores get. Several $120 sets have been down to $40 during the last clearance. And the Ultimate Batmobile was discounted several times not long after release. I think it's likely we see the same with the Bounty. I wouldn't be surprised if in 2018, it gets a price drop to $120 at Walmart and then possibly discounted further during some clearance times. Those stores don't seem to move a lot of the higher priced sets. At least not in my area. I got 6 of the various $120 sets for $40 each during July/August and several $80 or $100 sets for $30.

nhyone · September 2017

Does Lego need such deep discount to move? I'm suspicious.

Yodalicious · September 2017

^ In those stores, yes. Think about it this way...the general public doesn't go into Walmart or Target to buy a $160 set. They go in to buy a $20 set for a birthday party they're headed to. Just look at the recent history. The TLBM Batcave was marked down from $100 to $80 almost immediately after release. The larger police and fire stations are basically permanently 20% off or more. Even something as popular as the Millinium Falcon (the Force Awakens version) is $120 at those stores when it's retail
price is $150. The Ultimate Batmobile saw a drop to $100 all over the US right after release and people bought it. Now it's back at $140 and it just sits on shelves.

It's not that LEGO as a whole needs such deep discounts to move; it's that the more expensive sets aren't what the typical Walmart or Target shopper if there to buy. That and many recent sets appear to be so overproduced (regardless of the price level) that those stores have had to put them on basically permanent discount. There's no way the larger Walmarts in my area are going to each sell the 50+ TLBM Joker balloon sets they have...even at 20-30% off.

pharmjod · September 2017

Yeah, I'd buy at least one Bounty at $90. That's what, a 44% discount? More when you factor tax. I'm not really buying as much for resale anymore unless I get ridiculous discounts, but on that one, I might buy several at $90. It is a good value at $160. At $90 it's a steal. I picked up an ultimate batmobile at walmart the other day for $45, so that sort of discount is always a possibility as well, but I wouldn't pass $90 in hopes of a better one for myself.

CurvedRoadPlate · September 2017

I think the Bounty is one of the best ships that Lego has made. I thought it was a great set at full price. $90 is a steal.

monstblitz · September 2017

I bought the Bounty at full price (did get damaged box VIP points) but it looks like a beautiful ship in the store displays I've seen. Can't wait to build it. I'd pounce at $90.

Hanzo · September 2017

$90 is a terrible deal for Destiny's Bounty. As a matter of fact give me the information on the seller/link to the sale and I'll contact them to give them a piece of my mind.

Aanchir · September 2017

According to the last six months' BrickLink sales, a new copy of #9446 Destiny's Bounty is currently worth around 75% more than its original sticker price from five years ago. That's not Star Wars levels of appreciation, but it's nothing to sneeze at for a theme that is outside many AFOL's radar.

Seeing as the new Destiny's Bounty still has cloth sails (a big draw for Pirates fans) in addition to a much more impressive build, I'd say go for it. And if you see a similar discount as it gets closer to EOL, pick up a second copy so you have one to build and keep for your own collection!

dougts · September 2017

Aanchir said:

According to the last six months' BrickLink sales, a new copy of #9446 Destiny's Bounty is currently worth around 75% more than its original sticker price from five years ago. That's not Star Wars levels of appreciation, but it's nothing to sneeze at for a theme that is outside many AFOL's radar.

Seeing as the new Destiny's Bounty still has cloth sails (a big draw for Pirates fans) in addition to a much more impressive build, I'd say go for it. And if you see a similar discount as it gets closer to EOL, pick up a second copy so you have one to build and keep for your own collection!

if you haven't seen the new Destiny's Bounty in the flesh, you are missing out. It is an amazingly detailed build and a true work of art. it is simply gorgeous on display

stlux · September 2017

Now that we are on the topic of Ninjago: #70751 Temple of Airjitzu has changed to "Retired Product" on the US [email protected] Seems to have skipped the Retiring Soon tag.

Still available on [email protected] EU, and from several large toy retailers, with no discounts.

SumoLego · September 2017

One also has to remember that Wal-Mart gets the product at wholesale, so LEGO isn't losing anything on their margins. (I'm sure Wal-Mart can live with 25% margins on 'deep discounted' sets to move the product.)

ReesesPieces · September 2017

Kind of an odd time to retire the temple of airjitzu. I would have thought they would wait until couple months after the release of the ninjago movie incase the movie brings in new fans.

SumoLego · September 2017

^ I'm sure they want to push the Destiny's Bounty and Ninjago City. (And who knows what wave two will have for us...)

gunther.schnitzel · September 2017

Got Destiny's Bounty for EUR ~112.50 from Amazon.co.uk a couple of weeks ago. It is EUR 99 in Smyths now with stock in most Irish stores.

ryjay · September 2017

@Switchfoot55....explain the opportunity, if you can? Is it a retail sale, someone dumping, store coupons, friend needs $90...guy selling them out of his trunk in parking lot?

Switchfoot55 · September 2017

^Just a local seller. I've never done a deal with him before, but he always sells new sought after stuff. The pictures show a new box, minor scuffs on one corner, sealed.

In torn as I'm not super into Ninjago, but duo like the look of the set. But the idea of potentially reselling some day is also intriguing.

Charmiefcb · September 2017

Does anyone feel the latest modulars will not be as valuable as the older ones when they retire? It just seems that everyone is going out and getting Palace Cinemas and a year or so ago before it retired the Pet Shop.
It seems there are more of the latest modulars in collections to be sold at a later date than the older ones like the first 3.
Resellers will get their money back and a bit more but does anyone see the latest modulars sort of losing their aura with so many now in the hands of resellers/investors than 5-10 years ago?

madforLEGO · September 2017

Charmiefcb said:

Does anyone feel the latest modulars will not be as valuable as the older ones when they retire? It just seems that everyone is going out and getting Palace Cinemas and a year or so ago before it retired the Pet Shop.
It seems there are more of the latest modulars in collections to be sold at a later date than the older ones like the first 3.
Resellers will get their money back and a bit more but does anyone see the latest modulars sort of losing their aura with so many now in the hands of resellers/investors than 5-10 years ago?

Of course. However, this has been the trend ever since Fire Brigade. But here is the thing. Most times they will still do better long term than most 'investments' that people are making in other lines in large or smaller sets. LEGO has redone a lot of sets; even remade the UCS Falcon now, but the mods are still not redone (at this time anyway).
I also think people were still too busy buying Pet shops, especially when it was reduced to 120 USD, before buying Palace Cinema's. Especially since those were harder to find in their lifespan in BOGO50 and B2G1F situations. Same with Palace Cinema. I think most people got their 'fill' of those long before last year, but now buying this year, if they are not waiting to see if they can get more if it goes on sale near the end of this year. It is also the reason I think LEGO tagged them 'Retiring soon' (same with the classic bat cave, which they already had to reduce price on) as they want the stocks gone before they have to clearance them like with the Pet Shop last Christmas.

Has the 'aura' of LEGO sets gaingi large values fallen? Sure, but then again the 'aura' is falling for any LEGO set at this point (the biggest con IMO is Websites, LEGO, and book writers making money off of rubes that think the market is still strong). Either the sets are:
1) Discounted to the point where everyone buys a truckload and they really do not go up in the aftermarket for years, if ever.
2) They are never put on sale so you have to pay dear to stack them, and really hope they increase in price.
3) They make them for 8+ years which means you sit on them forever, even if you managed to get a few on sale (see the first Death Star-with only a 1 year hiatus before being redone by the way, Tower Bridge, or VW Camper van)

Deals are to be had, but like with every 'fad' that is selling something to make quick money, once the element of surprise is gone and yabbos write books on how to make 'big money' on LEGO, and build websites solely for tracking prices and predicting LEGO aftermarket values like it is a stock market, you will have it lose its luster big time.

Can you make money in LEGO? Sure...
-Buy in bulk to compete (Some of these guys on sites like brickpicker are likely buying 10's, if not 100's, of sets to sell once discontinued, and are making a living running from store clearance to store clearance to clean out product-They are the same guys that mysteriously have 20-30 of a LEGO promo figure for sale as well)

-Make good educated guesses on what themes/sets to buy(like be wary when a group of folks say anything about buying 'this or that')

-Understand that if you buy you are competing against guys that do not mind 'shorting' their 100 of a set to make their 5 USD on each for 6 months while you sit on your 4-5 until they run out.

prevere · September 2017

^All good points madforLEGO. I'll add that while I've used past performances on similar sets/themes as an indicator for potential profit (modulars is a good example), that line of thinking no longer works for me. Rehash after rehash is just a killer. All of this makes the evaluation of what to buy for investing all the more difficult.

roxio · September 2017

Small to medium sized licensed sets on discount are the way to go imo. Obviously you need judgement to pick right ones. Hulkbuster, antman, wall-e all doing nicely for me

prevere · September 2017

I also find that some general "evergreens" tend to do well...like pirate ships and dinosaurs, regardless of what themes they appear in.

madforLEGO · September 2017

roxio said:

Small to medium sized licensed sets on discount are the way to go imo. Obviously you need judgement to pick right ones. Hulkbuster, antman, wall-e all doing nicely for me

I think the subject matter means more than just getting any small to medium licensed sets, even on discount, because typically to make money on smaller sets means you have to invest large on the number of set you get. Guess wrong and you are stuck with a ton of stuff no one wants.

FollowsClosely · September 2017

I saw a 10179 on Craigslist for $1,200. I talked him down to $950.
I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.

prevere · September 2017

FollowsClosely said:

I saw a 10179 on Craigslist for $1,200. I talked him down to $950.
I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.

Did the same thing with the winter toy shop. Bought for $60, sold for $250, right as the rumor was starting to become viable.

Jackad7 · September 2017

Could we see a drop in the secondary market of star wars UCS sets? I'm willing to be that at least son of the collectors are going to try and sell their less favorite sets to pull money together for the new Falcon and there will be less people trying to pick up the older sets instead probably saving for the falcon.

stefxan · September 2017

I was offered a 10221 for 450 EUR yesterday. The sam 10221 had a price tag of 800 EUR in January. For my personal opinion I think there will be a drop on any UCS set in fear of a new version (for the ships). Yoda 7194 and so on should not be influenced.

PapaBear · September 2017

HOLY CRAP! Can anyone tell me why people are paying $130-150 for the #40139 Gingerbread house? It was a promo item. I know it was highly sought after and I'll admit, it looks really good. $150 though? Did it start at $40 or $60? I can't remember

I'm glad I saved some of these to sell

Bumblepants · September 2017

^It just went up a ton over the summer. Not sure what prompted it though.

CCC · September 2017

PapaBear said:

HOLY CRAP! Can anyone tell me why people are paying $130-150 for the #40139 Gingerbread house? It was a promo item. I know it was highly sought after and I'll admit, it looks really good. $150 though? Did it start at $40 or $60? I can't remember

I'm glad I saved some of these to sell

It started at about $25 / £20 when they were a promo. It has gone up massively over summer, I don't know if it people getting ready for Christmas / Winter Villages or something like that.

nhyone · September 2017

FollowsClosely said:
I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.

I bet that guy who bought the MF off you didn't see it that way. :-)

He is now out $1+k that he could have used to buy the new MF plus a few more giant sets.

Scatterbug · September 2017

PapaBear said:

HOLY CRAP! Can anyone tell me why people are paying $130-150 for the #40139 Gingerbread house? It was a promo item. I know it was highly sought after and I'll admit, it looks really good. $150 though? Did it start at $40 or $60? I can't remember

I'm glad I saved some of these to sell

The rise seems to be attributed to a Facebook post that went viral. The price is now falling as the bubble has burst. Christmas will see good demand for this great set but not at those values.

littlepuppi · September 2017

I sold one for 139.99 (pounds) could not believe it!

LuLego · September 2017

The price of gingerbread house is crazy. On eBay, the going rate is £80+ and even used is £50. It doesn't surprise me that @littlepuppi sold it for so much. And this was a free set!

As much as I love this set on my Christmas table, £50 goes a long way towards an expensive time of the year. I don't consider myself a reseller but I'm tempted to sell on. I'd be just as happy with a bricklinked model of it on display.

hoyatables · September 2017

That's crazy! Of COURSE I failed to get that one. I don't suppose the other set (the Christmas train) is shooting up in value?

Scatterbug · September 2017

LuLego said:

The price of gingerbread house is crazy. On eBay, the going rate is £80+ and even used is £50. It doesn't surprise me that @littlepuppi sold it for so much. And this was a free set!

As much as I love this set on my Christmas table, £50 goes a long way towards an expensive time of the year. I don't consider myself a reseller but I'm tempted to sell on. I'd be just as happy with a bricklinked model of it on display.

You will not sell (on eBay UK) for that price. £60 maybe, which is still a good return considering it was 'free'.

AdeelZubair · September 2017

I was wondering what happened to this thread, it had constant comments. I guess everyone was stalking the #75192 - Millennium Falcon thread instead...

...I was right given this discussion has rapidly continued since the release of the set.

monstblitz · September 2017

I remember I was just getting into Lego as the Ginger Bread promotion was going on. I really didn't have the money to spend to get the promotion at the time, and I remember thinking, "They probably give away promos like this all the time." I couldn't have been more wrong. Kicking myself for missing out on it.

MegtheCat · September 2017

^I remember the Gingerbread House was the promo for Black Friday weekend, but the sets I wanted to buy were released on Tuesday, when the promo was supposed to be over. Apparently they had enough to extend the giveaways, because I was ecstatic when it was added to my cart at midnight when I ordered the Doctor Who Ideas set, et al. Now it sits on my mantle as a part of my growing Lego Christmas display every year. I like it even better than last year's snow globe.

PapaBear · September 2017

nhyone said:

FollowsClosely said:
I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.

I bet that guy who bought the MF off you didn't see it that way. :-)

He is now out $1+k that he could have used to buy the new MF plus a few more giant sets.

I would say 10179 is still worth around $1,500 new. It is going for over $2,000 on eBay. The fact that Lego doesn't have any of 75192 in stock kept it sort of high for now. Ppl rushed to sell theirs in a panic and that's why prices got to $1000. I think it will even out around $1,500 when stock of 75192 comes in. Of course, it will start climbing as soon as the new one gets discontinued.

PapaBear · October 2017

Helicarrier is out of stock on LEGO.com. I have one, but don't think I would get another to resell.

SumoLego · October 2017

I think there will be a modest bump, and a slow, steady increase in value. I would model it after the SSD. Although my guess is that it tops out at $650.00 NISB.

stevemack · October 2017

I don’t see it having the same following as the SSD has

samiam391 · October 2017

PapaBear said:

nhyone said:

FollowsClosely said:
I sold my last 10179 eight months back when the rumors first came out for $2,100. That's how you play this game, and an interesting market.

I bet that guy who bought the MF off you didn't see it that way. :-)

He is now out $1+k that he could have used to buy the new MF plus a few more giant sets.

I would say 10179 is still worth around $1,500 new. It is going for over $2,000 on eBay. The fact that Lego doesn't have any of 75192 in stock kept it sort of high for now. Ppl rushed to sell theirs in a panic and that's why prices got to $1000. I think it will even out around $1,500 when stock of 75192 comes in. Of course, it will start climbing as soon as the new one gets discontinued.....

.... in 10 years.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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