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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • weaponxdeadpoolweaponxdeadpool Member Posts: 4
    I'll hop by from time to time but I have more important things to do. I don't drink Coke, I drink Plasma.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I can see Diagon Alley tripling and more, but multiplying by tenfold? You can't be serious. I'm sorry, what journals are you published in? If you don't mind me asking.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    I eat bankers and investors for lunch.
    All that fatty food can't be good for you

    Amanda1983
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I have a hard time seeing $1,500 on DA that soon as well...

    Very few sets are that expensive, and DA is iconic enough I would think lots of them are being stashed.

    That is 75 cents a part, not even UCS Falcon is there after 2 years... I'm not sure UCS Falcon will ever get there... That would require nearly $4K for that set. Too many were made for that I think...

    At some point, demand becomes satisfied, and while continued sales do happen, as demand softens over time, it removes the upward price pressure.

    But yes, as y2josh said, you're probably kidding... :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2012
    There is a certain amount of science or math involved in which LEGO set hits it big. Obvious things like supply and demand. Even that is tricky, because it's difficult to know how many of any given set has been made. But, there is also a huge non-logic factor. How the set appeals to people, what the mini-figs are, how rare those mini-figs are. A couple of super hero mini-figs from the Toy Fair are selling for $350+ on eBay. What formula would tell a person that would happen? Yes, it is a given that they will sell well and for a good price. But, $400?

    Also, it's just my gut, but I think the Excavator will do very well when retired. But, I will admit, I don't know if it's going to be EOL'd soon. It's a unique set, it is generic enough to appeal to different groups. They probably won't build another one. It has power functions. Has huge playability.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Speaking of a unique set, how about the Mindstorms NXT 2.0 set not being retired yet? It is very unique too? But LEGO keeps producing more and more of those since 2008 if I am not wrong.

    And @LegoFanTexas, you never know that with the recent 10 year revised license to make SW sets, I have a gut feeling we will see another Falcon, UCS or not, you never know. It has happened with so many sets in SW universe. I love Bricklink for another fact that it helps us sort sets by Year released. My son wanted to get the new X-wing as his first big SW set, but then he found out there were previous remakes so he just dropped the idea saying 'lets wait for a better version' :P

    Getting back on the topic, @weaponxdeadpool, care to share how many DA's have you bought already cause then we might be able to truly understand your logic behind what you explained :) as obviously, everyone wants their stash to fetch big bucks in the long run. JMO.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @weaponxdeadpool may or may not be pulling everybody's chain, but he/she does bring up a good point. There is a lot of excellent data available (e.g., Brickset database) that can give a lot of insights into the future prospects of sets after they've been EOL'd. It can also provide indications of EOL dates, projected costs of new sets, and ultimately where small resellers should invest their limited resources. If only there was more time in a day...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I see DA fetching maybe $300 by the end of 2014. That new battlepack they released with Hagrid for $10 really killed some of the value of DA. The most valuable figs in it are Fred and George. So many many stickers...arrgghh...printed parts would have been better for value as well. Makes for a nice parts pack tho, but so do alot of other sets.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    edited February 2012
    By the time you figure in Amazon's fees that's pretty much a wash for a reseller. Why even bother reselling unless you can double your money?
    Holding for the maximum possible gain isn't always the best possible strategy.

    Consider these two options:
    #1: Hold your investment for one year, sell for 2x what you paid.
    #2: Hold your investment for two months, sell for 25% more than what you paid.

    If you can do #2 consistently it is a much better plan. #1 will only give you 100% profit after 12 months, while #2 will give you 281% profit after 12 months.

    I see lots of posts here where people don't consider the velocity of money.
    Amanda1983
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Obviously this makes sense but unless you have access to wholesale prices you can't sell every couple months consistently. Have to figure in the labor cost of quick turn arounds vs storage & TUOM. Is this your main business vs a side thing?

    Where it does make sense (for people like us) to make quick flips is where we over extend for the short term. I.e. spend more than we should when we really need the funds for other purposes.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,431
    edited February 2012
    What you guys need to take into account is that it seems there are way more people buying Lego as investments. When that happens, the market will be flooded. If I were you guys, I wouldn't tell people what you are hoarding because other people will do the same.

    Just my two cents. Good luck.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    If I were you guys, I wouldn't tell people what you are hoarding because other people will do the same.
    Good advice! :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Point well taken. But, I'm not sure everyone tells everything. Also, what benefits the whole benefits the individual, to a point. Sure, a person could be selfish and share nothing, or share misinformation (which may be happening). But, I think if the group as a whole buys and 'invests' in the right sets at the right time due to collaboration we are all winners.

    I think even with all the 'investing' we are a mere drop in the bucket relative to all the LEGO sets sold by WM, Target, Amazon, [email protected]

    Yes, when it comes to bricklink and eBay we are still on the same team, so to speak, but competing. But, I think it's a level playing field. Where one person will sell early to get cash flow, another may sell later and get the larger return. And, even with all the popular invested sets, it comes down to supply and demand. If there is a huge demand there is plenty of profit for all.

    Now, everyone can keep to themselves and share nothing, but I think the collaboration helps us all in deciding what to buy and when. I mean either we buy the sets right before they go EOL or the average person does.

    Lastly, not sure how many are investing tens of thousands in LEGOS. I myself am not.
    Amanda1983
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    If I were you guys, I wouldn't tell people what you are hoarding because other people will do the same.

    Just my two cents. Good luck.
    Like others pointed out, I think this board is a tiny tiny drop in the bucket compared to the LEGO market as a whole. I'd prefer to think we help each other (even if we end up competing in the end) instead of just look at everybody as pure competition.

    A good question might be what percentage of sets are being "hoarded" for future sales? If, say, 5% of Death Stars are being bought and left MISB for future sales then that isn't a problem at all. On the other hand if 75% are being set aside for future sale then that doesn't bode well.

    Generally something isn't a bubble until you start to hear about it outside of the inner community. When your hairdresser starts talking about investing in LEGO get scared. When late-night TV starts having specials on LEGO flippers then it is time to run.
    Amanda1983
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ point well taken. I think LEGO 'investing' is completely unknown to 99% of the population. And, even for those that know something about it they have no interest. "Oh, you 'invest' in LEGOS?" (to self, 'weird'). he he
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Regarding "sharing information"...

    I will say that I've learned a ton here, at least as much as I've given back... So sharing back with the forum is just good Karma. Hording all the info, just "take, take, take" without any giveback, is not only rude, but bad Karma (I really do believe that).

    The whole world is a better place when we all work together and share, rather than take as much for ourselves as possible without any consideration of others. There has to be a balance.
    Amanda1983
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    Walmart has roughly 8500 stores stocking (on average) 100+ sets at a given time, so the total number of Walmart sets out there may be roughly 850K sets. Target has roughly 1750 stores stocking (on average) 100+ sets for a total number of 175K sets. TRU has roughly 875 stores stocking (on average) 100+ sets for a total number of 87.5K sets. So these stores alone may stock well over 1M lego sets (plus or minus) at any time. These numbers do not include Amazon, Lego [email protected], Lego B&M, other miscellaneous outlets (YoYo, Barnes and Noble, etc.), or other larger retail outlets around the globe.

    Brickset administrators could probably provide better data, but it appears that there may be roughly 20 people visiting their site (on average) at any given point in time.

    Question: Does anyone seriously think that the hoarding or resale strategies by members of Brickset really amounts to anything in the big scheme of things?

    Just trying to get a little perspective...
    Amanda1983
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Legos are recently entering the public's conscious as being "collectable". You have a generation of "mostly" men such as myself who are rediscovering Legos after a very long time. The only sets from my youth (think mid to late 80's) that interest me are "Space" and "Castle" which seem to demand the most money in the used market. The old town, city and pirate sets look pretty bland compared to what's out now. Unfortunately in the past couple of years I missed out on acquiring the neat Town Plan set along with the Indiana Jones series.

    To answer your question: I think the hoarding hurts the recent, small collector the most and has very little to do with the grand scale of things. I find it pretty disappointing to see a set that was just discontinued a couple of months ago demanding a 50 to 100% mark up over it's original retail. Of course that's just the nature of supply and demand. I do think regarding both the Star Wars UC and modulars that value will level out. Too many are hoarding and there's still a small market for Lego sets in the $150+ range.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    edited February 2012

    To answer your question: I think the hoarding hurts the recent, small collector the most and has very little to do with the grand scale of things. I find it pretty disappointing to see a set that was just discontinued a couple of months ago demanding a 50 to 100% mark up over it's original retail.
    I'm having a hard time seeing it the way you do. In order for the "small collector" to be hurt, the resellers would have to be doing something that either reduces availability to the small collector or increases prices to the small collector. I don't think resellers are doing either.

    I have seen no evidence that the act of resellers stocking up on sets cause them to become unavailable significantly any sooner. LEGO seems to use the calendar to decide when to stop producing sets, not produce a fixed quantity and when they sell out they sell out. LEGO doesn't seem to be like concert tickets, for example, where the actions of the resellers reduce availability for everyone else.

    Once a given set sells out, the fact that resellers help create a secondary market only increase the availability (and decreases the price) to the "small collector" who wants something. Imagine how much the small collector would have to pay for a given set if zero resellers had stocked up on it?

    As I currently perceive it, the purpose that resellers fulfill is to shift the availability of a set in time in exchange for accepting the risk/reward of price. If you want to buy a set #10193 today you can do so from [email protected] for $99.99 no questions asked. If you choose not to buy it today, but decide you want to buy it in three years, there will probably be a reseller there to meet your need. But the price will be an undetermined amount of 2015 dollars instead of a know amount of 2012 dollars, and the reseller is accepting the entire risk/reward premium by setting aside capital today.

    Amanda1983
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    As I currently perceive it, the purpose that resellers fulfill is to shift the availability of a set in time in exchange for accepting the risk/reward of price. If you want to buy a set #10193 today you can do so from [email protected] for $99.99 no questions asked. If you choose not to buy it today, but decide you want to buy it in three years, there will probably be a reseller there to meet your need. But the price will be an undetermined amount of 2015 dollars instead of a know amount of 2012 dollars, and the reseller is accepting the entire risk/reward premium by setting aside capital today.
    ^ This...

    All too often people use terms like "profiteering" or "hoarding", to demonize what someone buying sets to resell later is doing.

    That isn't it at all, it is just a business transaction, buying an item today that is easy to obtain, on the chance that it will become hard to obtain later and thus command a higher price point.

    ------------------

    To the poster above you who found it "disappointing" that a set retired a few months ago has doubled in price, I would ask, "why?".

    1. Are you just upset that you failed to act in the 1 to 3 years it was easy to obtain and now you have remorse over the current market value?

    2. Are you upset that someone else is making money when you're not?

    3. Are you upset that free market economics are at play and you would prefer a socialist system where the government forced people to make no profit?

    4. ???
    Amanda1983
  • forumreaderforumreader Member Posts: 97
    Resellers here seem to mostly affect the stock of EOL and sale sets. While I don't think our members are solely responsible for depleting Amazon's bigger restocks, there have been several occasions where Brickset/Toysnbricks members have cleared smaller SAH and Amazon restocks.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited February 2012
    Don't get so defensive. I just got back into Lego literally less than two months ago. Six months prior if you would of shown me a Cafe Corner NIB for retail price I would of just said "That's nice but kind of expensive for Legos." It took me building a basic rocket ship out of thirty year old Lego bricks for my three year old son to appreciate them again. From there I've been collecting as many inexpensive sets that I can find.

    Let me give you an example of frustrating reseller behavior: When a group of resellers buy say twenty MMV sets each, all at once from Amazon thus cleaning them out of stock. Then they try flipping them for 20-30% above retail, not really making any money but still hurting someone who might just want to pick up the set for their kid's upcoming birthday. I understand if a set is a couple years old. That's a different market. But trying to make a quick buck off a recently discontinued or out of stock set is kind of scummy.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Let me give you an example of frustrating reseller behavior: When a group of resellers buy say twenty MMV sets each, all at once from Amazon thus cleaning them out of stock. Then they try flipping them for 20-30% above retail, not really making any money but still hurting someone who might just want to pick up the set for their kid's upcoming birthday. I understand if a set is a couple years old. That's a different market. But trying to make a quick buck off a recently discontinued or out of stock set is kind of scummy.
    So a quick buck is scummy, but a slow buck is ok?

    Just think about that for a second, before you respond...

    -----------------

    BTW, MMV is a terrible example, it has been on the market since 2008, anyone now in 2012 claiming "but resellers bought the last 20 in stock at Amazon, a poor kid is going to be upset for their birthday" is just completely missing the big picture.

    There has been... PLENTY ...of time to buy this thing, plus, it is still for sale from Target for $89, and Lego [email protected] still has it for $99... TRU did have it in stock, until BOGO cleaned them out.

    -----------------
    Amanda1983
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Changing topics...

    My son just built General Grievous's Starfighter...

    Ok, now I know why it has been on sale, sheesh!!! This is NOT a playable set, way too fragile, my poor son, who was able to put together the new Y-Wing and TIE Fighter just fine by himself, was frustrated to no end with this thing, it kept breaking on him. I finally had to fix a number of problems and finish part of it, because it just doesn't want to stay together.

    Not meant to be a review of the set, he loves the minifigs, but it isn't Lego's best work.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2012
    ^^^ TRU, Amazon, and Target will mark items up above retail. Showing that most retailers will charge what they can for a product. There was the SW 7868 Mace Windu exclusive set at WM, 309 pieces, retail price $40. Extremely high cost per piece. Why not price it at $30 or $35? Are they being greedy? Or, is it simply a business model?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    To the poster above you who found it "disappointing" that a set retired a few months ago has doubled in price, I would ask, "why?".

    1. Are you just upset that you failed to act in the 1 to 3 years it was easy to obtain and now you have remorse over the current market value?

    2. Are you upset that someone else is making money when you're not?

    3. Are you upset that free market economics are at play and you would prefer a socialist system where the government forced people to make no profit?

    4. ???
    I agree with this sentiment...

    There have been a ton of sales on the MMV since it came out. More than ample enough opportunities to get it on the cheap. This thread has been discussing the potential EOL of MMV since it's (the thread's) very beginning. It's old news.

    Also, there are sets I passed on that I shouldn't have (Green Grocer comes immediately to mind), but that's life and now I have to pay $500 if I want it. Furthermore, I don't have the means that others may have or I may choose to use it elsewhere, and that's life too.

    It'll all be okay in the end.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889

    I do think regarding both the Star Wars UC and modulars that value will level out. Too many are hoarding and there's still a small market for Lego sets in the $150+ range.
    I think I will take this opinion from someone who just got into Lego 2 months ago with a grain of salt. ;)

  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    This is such a fun thread to read (and I'm being serious), as there are many different viewpoints. Truly the title says it all. This isn't an exact science. I have found that I really love the "thrill of the hunt" when it comes to Lego bargain hunting. It is especially sweet when a set is ready to go out.

    The secondary market is an interesting thing and one that I really enjoying studying. I've only been back into Lego since the fall of 2010. I'm still kicking myself that I didn't get the motorized AT-AT, Grand Carousel, Taj Mahal, and Green Grocer when I had the chance.

    Resellers cannot drive the price up if the buyer isn't willing to pay the price (supply & demand). Yet clearly there are buyers willing to buy at above MSRP, sometimes ridiculously so. I can't begrudge a reseller for selling a retired set though, when I could have had the same opportunity to acquire it. If you remove some resellers out of the picture, that would only make the price go up farther.

    Keep in mind, when a set is retired, it isn't as if ALL resellers put their items on the market immediately. There are some that are willing to make 25%. Other's 50%, 100% and so on. Resellers sell in varying stages and time frames. Some hold on to their sets for a couple months and others a couple years.

    As an example, when the MMV retires, what will happen? The price will start to go up above MSRP. But how much and over what time period? That's really the question, isn't it? No one can say with certainty. There is a bunch that's been sold. Very true. However, I believe that with every snap shot of a moment in time after retirement, there won't be nearly as many on the market as there was when it was readily available. And so the discussions continue... is it a good set? will it be desired in the months/years ahead? If so, the price goes up... If not, it still seems that the price goes up, just not as much and it is over a longer time period.

    Oh, something else that makes this thread "fun" is just going back and reading some of the past posts. Last week, I made it a point to read the first 2 pages of this thread. Some good insights, some not so great but only because we know what "right now" holds.

    OK, back to lurking...
    Amanda1983
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    Sealed sets will continue to rise in price as they become more and more scarce. Resellers celebrate when sealed sets are bought, then opened (and boxes discarded carelessly).

    Resellers of 10178 Motorized AT-ATs will cry out in joy this weekend as I've decided to open mine and build the thing for our IndyLUG show in March.
  • tategoitategoi Member Posts: 19
    In my part of the world the MSRP are generally double that of the US. So when I read that Amazon or TRU have 50% off it made me very jealous. And that means the prices over here are almost 4x of the sale price in the US. We can always ship the Lego from the US, but the shipping charges and savings sometime do not commensurate with the risks and work we put it.

    That being said, there are still good deals to be found here, especially those EOL'd sets with prices that had been pushed up. For example, Imperial Flagship is selling at USD245 equivalent, and Emerald Night at USD145.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited February 2012
    I'm just playing devil's advocate. I don't personally have a vendetta against re-sellers because I'm not desperate enough to pay for anything marked up considerably. I have an Amazon Sellers account but primarily use it to sell stuff I no longer need (used electronics, music CDs, etc.). I was considering this last Christmas about re-selling a "Toy Story Space Woody" that we had bought for our son. I lucked out and snagged one when Amazon briefly had them in stock at $11. It's crazy that they still are out of stock and re-sellers are asking $50: http://www.amazon.com/Toy-Story-Space-Woody-Figure/dp/B004UUP03S/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1329985081&sr=8-1
    So, yes I get why people become re-sellers. At the same time, I recently joked to my wife that collecting toys as an adult is sometimes like being Al, the bad guy from Toy Story 2.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Totally agree with @tategoi on this. And a fun fun thread to read while having breakfast :D
    Amanda1983
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    This is such a fun thread to read (and I'm being serious), as there are many different viewpoints....
    As an example, when the MMV retires, what will happen? The price will start to go up above MSRP. But how much and over what time period?
    I agree that it's fun to read and speculate, just as long as the re-sellers here don't take themselves so seriously. Regarding, MMV, I bought one from Target for around $89 shipped. I believe that they are still in stock. It has been by far my biggest Lego purchase to date (my wife was mad at me about it). It's still sitting sealed in its box and I'm wondering if I should build it or keep it sealed. Thing is, I believe that it will take awhile for this set to appreciate considerably. It has been out forever and there are lots of sets still in inventory at both brick and mortar (though that is dwindling) and with resellers. I think the true value of MMV will come into play a few years down the road. Lego's current roadmap regarding the medieval, castle theme is focused on LOTR. I doubt that we'll see a LOTR village based set with the same detail as MMV (heck even the LOTR castle sets look kind of lame to me). The Kingdom series appears to be EOL'd. I think in a few years people who are into the castle theme, namely new AFOL, will desire MMV and there is a chance that there will not be a decent alternative available. This will drive up the price.

  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 989
    What do people think of the CMFs?

    The demand > supply excess for Series 1 was very well documented, but apart from one or two select minifigures (particularly the zombie) they don't seem to be commanding prices significantly above RRP (that I can see from a cursory glance on eBay). I wonder what effect the seemingly over-production of the later series will have on the first - will people just get bored of the CMFs, devaluing the first series? I have a sealed set of Series 1 which I've always intended on sitting on for a couple of years.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ choice figures seem to do well. Spartans and Romans fit well in this bracket. It makes me wonder why Lego don't look closely at this and build a theme around the most coveted minifigures.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I get each CMF from each series and leave them bagged. I then pick up additional bags of whichever ones are popular in the house to put on the refrigerator, hand out as prizes for doing well in school, or just for providing some extra help around the house. The variety Lego provides is key because the kids have so many interests, which are always changing. For Series 6, the kids in our house all liked either the space girl and alien. Personally, I like the toy robot best. Their future collectible value may be something else; however, since they were/are very inexpensive and were produced and sold by the box (of 60 packs).
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    I'm just playing devil's advocate. I don't personally have a vendetta against re-sellers.
    I agree that it's fun to read and speculate, just as long as the re-sellers here don't take themselves so seriously.
    Hmm..
    But trying to make a quick buck off a recently discontinued or out of stock set is kind of scummy.
    I don't know, if I were a speculator I might take your accusation that my actions were "scummy" kind of seriously, and wonder why you had a vendetta against me.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ choice figures seem to do well. Spartans and Romans fit well in this bracket. It makes me wonder why Lego don't look closely at this and build a theme around the most coveted minifigures.
    Lego probably figures (pardon the pun) that they can get more sales using random figures then by selling a battle pack, which is why they made the sets more difficult to figure out after Series 2 (dot codes). It's always all about the bottom line.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Resellers of 10178 Motorized AT-ATs will cry out in joy this weekend as I've decided to open mine and build the thing for our IndyLUG show in March.
    Count me in that group, I have one of those in the closet yet to open and build, but it is on the "build" list...
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited February 2012
    Legos are recently entering the public's conscious as being "collectable". You have a generation of "mostly" men such as myself who are rediscovering Legos after a very long time. The only sets from my youth (think mid to late 80's) that interest me are "Space" and "Castle" which seem to demand the most money in the used market. The old town, city and pirate sets look pretty bland compared to what's out now.
    That said, I've been collecting and buying old sets off eBay for well over a decade. I pay far less for old sets from the 80s and 90s today than I ever did ten years ago. I've bought two Metro Park & Service Tower, for example. Paid around the same for each I'm 1999 and 2009, but the 2009 example was sealed.
    Sealed sets will continue to rise in price as they become more and more scarce. Resellers celebrate when sealed sets are bought, then opened (and boxes discarded carelessly).

    That's simply not my experience based on a decade of collecting.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    @Ma1234 - my knowledge of retired items dating back to baseball cards and comics in the 90s tells me you're right...

    There is a bell curve, a place where an item peaks in value. Very few items are immune to this curve, and at some point all remaining demand is gone at a given price point, so the price starts going down.

    I think we're seeing this already on the early Star Wars UCS sets... I sold some last year for more than I'm getting today, I will be very careful to not keep more than one or two of each in stock because of this. During Christmas, I had 8 10030 sets in stock, now I'm down to 3 and won't replace them until I've sold 2 of those, keeping 2 in stock.

    10030 has reached the high point I think, 10221 SSD, I think has removed any further upward price pressure, now that there is another big gray arrowhead ship to buy. :)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I agree with @LegoFanTexas (as usual) about the plateau of pricing on each set. The rush of a "bubble" happens when everyone sees Cafe Corner jump in price, so they assume EVERY set will jump in price.

    With the Star Wars license renewed for another 10 years, you will see more sets go down in value. Look at the quality of minifigs they are putting out. Way more printed legs, specialized helmets, etc. The older figures are so much more basic, as are the builds of some of the sets. As we see a third or fourth version of sets, they will not be as desirable except for completionists.

    @LegoFanTexas - I wish I could see your "trades" as some people share their trades on the stock market. We could analyze your strategies and get more insight into the market. Funny thing is, there are many others out there who do what you do, and DON'T say a peep on these forums. The quietly get info, make deals based on it, get profit, and don't share the info they learn. It would be cool if more folks like you spoke up.

    Thanks for that.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Any predictions on when the Excavator (8043) will be EOL'd? My apologies if already discussed.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    The handful I've mentioned this to think I'm nuts, but I'm starting to get worried about 10219 going away suddenly.

    The expectation seems to be that this will take the place of the Emerald Night as the "premium" train in LEGOs product line for around two years. But I note that the previous Maersk branded set was only on the shelves for about six months.

    10219 seems to be getting harder and harder to find outside of [email protected] It feels like nobody is getting restocked once they run out.

    Does anybody have any educated guesses on what is happening here?
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited February 2012
    @cloaked7, I think it's been discussed but I cannot find it. In any case, it's the "big" Technic set that came out well before the Unimog, so one would imagine it can't be far from being on its way out. But like anything with LEGO lately, it's anyone's guess as they might have secret plans to keep it on the shelf through 2015 for all we know.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    EOLing of Technic sets is more predictable, I think. Definitely more so than modulars or even HP. :-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    MMV back in stock at Amazon... All 6 of them.
  • The_Brick_BuilderThe_Brick_Builder Member Posts: 658
    Is MMV going to retire this year? I'd say it will hit $250 max if so much people are buying them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    $250 would be a nice number. :)
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    How about Harry Potter 4841 Hogwarts VS 4842 Train...
    both soon to be gone, each have unique-to-the-set figures, but only one train and this is the fourth castle??
    Thoughts on best pick for a year from now?
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