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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value
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Comments
Trust me, there are those that will always want, and buy, the Cafe Corner, Market Street, Green Grocer, Grand Carousel, etc. There will be Completion-ists that are completion-ists and will not buy cheap knockoffs to complete their collections.
This earth shaking news that the number of buyers drops with sets that get really pricey, is really not earth shattering, but you will always have those who want the real thing.
As for LEGO Star Wars? Well I think now with the reintroduction of a UCS Falcon, it is safe to say no SW set is off limits from being remade, but I have felt that way since the first 'redo's' were done after the first SW series back in 2001, and 2002.. Anyone surprised by this has not been paying attention.
(Also when I think we'll see a glut of Last Jedi, Minecraft and the Saturns show up.)
There's also the question of how long they intend to make this available. The original wasn't available for too long, but if they intend to make this one available for many years like the recently retired Death Star model, they may have tried to factor long-term inflation into the price...
I do see TLG seizing an opportunity to capitalize on the pent up demand for a UCS MF, which they know for a fact is there based on the aftermarket prices of the original UCS MF. I'm not arguing with TLG's business approach...just think the price per part is unusually high for a set this large. No doubt, a lot more fence-sitters would have pulled the trigger at $599USD versus $799USD.
Every year some people start earning enough to justify such a purchase for themselves.
And I wonder how many times a parent will say you are not having that $800 set, have this $250 one instead.
Reminds me of the USS Flagg from the '80's. No way were my parents ever going to buy one, but I wanted it!
one store has it available for purchase with double VIP points TODAY!!!
Good luck on that - the Death Star box (as well as Firehouse HQ, Porsche, Disney Castle, and a couple other big ones) are probably all empty boxes, typically the ones that the built display sets came in. At least, the ones we use are. Sure makes rotating them on and off the shelves depending on availability easier.
There's a reason why folks don't rob a mattress store...
It's a trap!
The main reason to have empty boxes down there is so little kids can actually pick up the box and look at it without the risk of the box toppling over and hurting them.
They usually use the retiring soon tag on [email protected], I don't know about facebook. The cynic in me takes it to mean that they still have loads left and need to panic people into buying.
The bigger issue facing collectors in the aftermarket is Lego's persistance to push the top end price of thier product. There are so many more sets available today than just 5 years ago and the top end of those sets on average is so much higher that Lego is capturing more of the discretionary funds being spent on the product. I'm not sure where this is going to end, but I think we are in line for a market correction as Lego floods the Market. They just announced a bunch of layoffs company wide because the last quarter showed massively slowing growth. While the company is still growing, the percentage has dropped to the single digits, and they seem to be a bit put off by the drop.
Really, it's rare for LEGO to dive right into the deep end of the pool. More often, they start with smaller initiatives to dip their toes in the water, then take baby steps until they have enough confidence for a bigger initiative. Ninjago City is pretty big at the $300 price point, but LEGO probably wouldn't have taken that step if they hadn't first tested their limits with a $200 Ninjago set (Temple of Airjitzu) and a $250 LEGO Movie set (Metalbeard's Sea Cow). Likewise I doubt they'd have released the $250 Minecraft Mountain Cave if they hadn't first had a good experience with the $200 Village. It's worth noting that D2C sets in general tend to be somewhat niche, and are not produced in the same huge numbers as smaller sets. They also make up a relatively small slice of the LEGO Group's production slate. So while to us consumers they're a big deal, to LEGO they're a pretty measured risk.
As for the impact on the aftermarket, though, I do think you're right that these big sets will have an impact. What that impact is is hard to say.
- Will the aftermarket see growth as more sets come out that end users can't afford until after they're retired? Or will it shrink as end users find themselves spending more on sets in the primary market, leaving them with less to spend on retired sets?
- Will the wealthiest collectors take less interest in filling out their collections with retired sets as getting a "complete collection" becomes more and more expensive, or more interest as it becomes more and more prestigious?
- Will less wealthy collectors see re-releases or re-imaginings like the Winter Toy Shop or Carousel as reason not to bother collecting retired sets from series like the Winter Village or Fairgrounds on the aftermarket, or an incentive to start collecting those long-running series in the first place now that some of the most iconic parts of those series are more accessible?
I'm sure a lot of you who follow the aftermarket more closely and have already seen hints of what's to come have better answers to these questions than I do. It's just something to mull over.I think the group of people most interested in buying this released UCS MF set will do so within the first 6 months - a year tops as they scrounge together funds. I don't see the casual fan buying it in say 14 months time. I really think with the price point and targeted audience that this is certainly a less than 2 year production run maybe a year and 6 months.
I imagine that there are people that are just starting with lego or are about to start, or will start in the next year or two and they will see the price and think who would ever pay that for a lego set. Then in two years time, they will be wanting to buy it.