Shopping at LEGO or Amazon?
Please use our links: LEGO.comAmazon
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

1640641643645646674

Comments

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    I don't think they stopped production, not by a longshot.
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 438
    What about recently released sets that resellers didn't get a chance to stock up on?  The Haunted House, Town Hall, and Super Star Destroyer all come to mind.

    Wasn't the Haunted House at $600 at one point after it retired?  Now it's at $375.

    I thought the Town Hall got to $600 and now it's at $500.

    Then the SSD used to be close to $1000.  Now it's about $850.

    It seems factors such as counterfeits, long term availability, re-releases, the sheer number of exclusives available, and after market saturation aren't just affecting over stocked sets.  Even limited quantity sets in the aftermarket seem to be affected.

    I mean in 10 years, with 10 more modulars out, will people even know there was a Cafe Corner?  Will they even bother scrolling to the bottom of a database that lists them all?  Won't people just hold out for a bigger and better re-release of a new Town Hall?  I've sold a lot of used sets like SOH and The Pet Shop because I still have a few NIB, but I might as well sell everything I have and rebuy at a better time in the future.
    pharmjodsnowhitieFollowsCloselyOnebricktoomany
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    Jackad7 said:
    For dummy's like me who bought 10179 for way too much money on the aftermarket and rang the bell at it's peak, the only real play at this point is to sit on it.  I could see it being a nice package deal down the road once they are both retired for the completionist who wants them both.  I'll probably never recoup what I paid, but maybe someday with enough patience I'll break even.  Since I "splurged" on a mint first edition that should limit the bleeding a little anyway. 

    Not upset at all about the lost value, I knew the risk going in, and despite the lost value I'm thrilled at the prospect of this new set and being able to build it guilt free.  10179 got me out of my dark ages and taught me to not buy Lego as an investment but for pleasure. 


    Please don't sit on it, I'm sure people would be less inclined to buy an older version if you have sat on it.

    What do you guys think about the Saturn IV? There is still a lot of demand for it but lego stopped production so it feels like it could go up.
    LEGO announced recently that the Saturn would be available for a while. They didn't stop production. In fact, they seem to be ready to produce quite a bit more.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    PapaBear said:
    What about recently released sets that resellers didn't get a chance to stock up on?  The Haunted House, Town Hall, and Super Star Destroyer all come to mind.

    Wasn't the Haunted House at $600 at one point after it retired?  Now it's at $375.

    I thought the Town Hall got to $600 and now it's at $500.

    Then the SSD used to be close to $1000.  Now it's about $850.

    It seems factors such as counterfeits, long term availability, re-releases, the sheer number of exclusives available, and after market saturation aren't just affecting over stocked sets.  Even limited quantity sets in the aftermarket seem to be affected.

    I mean in 10 years, with 10 more modulars out, will people even know there was a Cafe Corner?  Will they even bother scrolling to the bottom of a database that lists them all?  Won't people just hold out for a bigger and better re-release of a new Town Hall?  I've sold a lot of used sets like SOH and The Pet Shop because I still have a few NIB, but I might as well sell everything I have and rebuy at a better time in the future.
    Easy, the HH and TH Have Lepin knockoffs out which dropped those prices. If Lepin did not do these sets to make a quick buck they would both be far more valuable.

    Trust me, there are those that will always want, and buy, the Cafe Corner, Market Street, Green Grocer, Grand Carousel, etc. There will be Completion-ists that are completion-ists and will not buy cheap knockoffs to complete their collections.
    This earth shaking news that the number of buyers drops with sets that get really pricey, is really not earth shattering, but you will always have those who want the real thing.

    As for LEGO Star Wars? Well I think now with the reintroduction of a UCS Falcon, it is safe to say no SW set is off limits from being remade, but I have felt that way since the first 'redo's' were done after the first SW series back in 2001, and 2002.. Anyone surprised by this has not been paying attention.

    pharmjodgmonkey76Onebricktoomany
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Jackad7 said:

    What do you guys think about the Saturn IV? There is still a lot of demand for it but lego stopped production so it feels like it could go up.
    ^Pardon the pun...
    Jackad7davetheoxygenman
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    What bothers me a little about the new UCS MF is that it prices out at more than 10 cents per piece. With a set that large, I would have expected the price per piece to be in the 8-9 cent range at the most. I guess I'll have to wait until there's double VIP points or something before I pull the trigger.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    I'm interested to see if LEGO will create a 'panic' my limiting the stock over the initial release, and then open the spigots in November.  Or it they'll be prepared like the Porsche.

    (Also when I think we'll see a glut of Last Jedi, Minecraft and the Saturns show up.)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    edited September 2017
    What bothers me a little about the new UCS MF is that it prices out at more than 10 cents per piece. With a set that large, I would have expected the price per piece to be in the 8-9 cent range at the most. I guess I'll have to wait until there's double VIP points or something before I pull the trigger.
    Double points means you get 80 dollars in VIP points with a purchase of one of these monsters. With the way LEGO has been, I'm half expecting for LEGO to exclude these from double point promotions.
    CCCDeeC2_Josh
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,874
    PapaBear said:
    What about recently released sets that resellers didn't get a chance to stock up on?  The Haunted House, Town Hall, and Super Star Destroyer all come to mind.

    Wasn't the Haunted House at $600 at one point after it retired?  Now it's at $375.

    I thought the Town Hall got to $600 and now it's at $500.

    Then the SSD used to be close to $1000.  Now it's about $850.

    It seems factors such as counterfeits, long term availability, re-releases, the sheer number of exclusives available, and after market saturation aren't just affecting over stocked sets.  Even limited quantity sets in the aftermarket seem to be affected.

    I mean in 10 years, with 10 more modulars out, will people even know there was a Cafe Corner?  Will they even bother scrolling to the bottom of a database that lists them all?  Won't people just hold out for a bigger and better re-release of a new Town Hall?  I've sold a lot of used sets like SOH and The Pet Shop because I still have a few NIB, but I might as well sell everything I have and rebuy at a better time in the future.
    I'm not sure of the US prices, but remember that one or two selling for that price does not make it the "price". There are often high priced sellers and gullible buyers that will create high outliers just as there are some sellers that undervalue and sell quickly creating low outliers. 
    OnebricktoomanySumoLegoOubirdsnowhitie
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,874
    What bothers me a little about the new UCS MF is that it prices out at more than 10 cents per piece. With a set that large, I would have expected the price per piece to be in the 8-9 cent range at the most. I guess I'll have to wait until there's double VIP points or something before I pull the trigger.
    Especially since there are relatively few minifigures as well. This is roughly one minifigure per 1000 pieces, well below average for a SW set.
    dougtsSumoLego
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 864
    CCC said:
    What bothers me a little about the new UCS MF is that it prices out at more than 10 cents per piece. With a set that large, I would have expected the price per piece to be in the 8-9 cent range at the most. I guess I'll have to wait until there's double VIP points or something before I pull the trigger.
    Especially since there are relatively few minifigures as well. This is roughly one minifigure per 1000 pieces, well below average for a SW set.
    Minifigures aren't the only sorts of parts that can skew price per piece. A set this size probably has a fair number of larger parts as well.

    There's also the question of how long they intend to make this available. The original wasn't available for too long, but if they intend to make this one available for many years like the recently retired Death Star model, they may have tried to factor long-term inflation into the price...
    Aanchirpharmjodcatwrangler
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^It costs very little to make even the large plastic parts (especially with the volume of ABS used by TLG), and I don't see ABS experiencing inflation to the point where it will.

    I do see TLG seizing an opportunity to capitalize on the pent up demand for a UCS MF, which they know for a fact is there based on the aftermarket prices of the original UCS MF. I'm not arguing with TLG's business approach...just think the price per part is unusually high for a set this large. No doubt, a lot more fence-sitters would have pulled the trigger at $599USD versus $799USD.
    dougtsOubird
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I have a feeling that the lifespan of the 2017 UCS MF will be around a little longer than the original, but not that much longer. $799.99 USD is a heafty price to.pay for a Lego set. Like the original, this current MF is more of a high end collector piece rather than a toy. I don't see production of this set lasting a very long time. Once all the big time collectors get their hands on this bad boy, I don't think it will sell at a steady enough pace to continue to keep it in production. 
    Johnyk668snowhitieFarmer_Johnruboand
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I think Disney will want this set around for years. They will want to stick it in the new star wars theme park. I can see it lasting a decade easily. It creates a halo effect around the brand. 
    BumblepantsCCCOnebricktoomanySumoLegogmonkey76snowhitieMr_Cross
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 257
    I hope it's in stores at least until the Han Solo movie comes out. 
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    pharmjod said:
    I think Disney will want this set around for years. They will want to stick it in the new star wars theme park. I can see it lasting a decade easily. It creates a halo effect around the brand. 
    It is a rather iconic set.
    Onebricktoomany
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,874
    pharmjod said:
    I think Disney will want this set around for years. They will want to stick it in the new star wars theme park. I can see it lasting a decade easily. It creates a halo effect around the brand. 
    Me too. I doubt they need to sell many to justify keeping it a current set.

    Every year some people start earning enough to justify such a purchase for themselves.

    And I wonder how many times a parent will say you are not having that $800 set, have this $250 one instead.


    OnebricktoomanypharmjodcatwranglerMr_Cross
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^I was just reaming my dad the other day for NOT buying me the U.S.S. Flagg. In his hands was $150 Lego set for my daughter Aubrie. 
    Ahhh...n othing beats a good ol' fashioned guilt trip
    Pitfall69SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    edited September 2017
    I did get a Nintendo in 1985, so maybe I shouldn't complain.  I got way more mileage out of that!
    PapaBearOubirdcatwranglerPitfall69
  • nhyonenhyone Member Posts: 145
    edited September 2017
    From Wiki, the USS Flagg retailed for $109.99 in 1985. According to a random inflation website I went to, that's $245 in today's dollars. Sorry, still no USS Flagg for you today. :-D
  • AMuller396AMuller396 Member Posts: 24
    You'll love this!!!!

    one store has it available for purchase with double VIP points TODAY!!!


    pharmjodmadforLEGOgmonkey76Jackad7nuttamastabuildainklingbricksM_BossPitfall69
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    And you are now the proud owner correct?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    There is no way that's actually available.  Maybe just for display...
  • willobee498willobee498 CanadalandMember Posts: 349
    Someone put that poor Death Star display box out of its misery!
    PapaBearprevere
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 618
    You'll love this!!!!

    one store has it available for purchase with double VIP points TODAY!!!


    No they just have the empty boxes on the shelves.  
    SumoLegoM_Boss
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 257
    It genius marketing getting everyone excited about the set a month before the general public can buy it. 
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    It genius marketing getting everyone excited about the set a month before the general public can buy it. 

    But Lego do that with every exclusive set though.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 618
    You'll love this!!!!

    one store has it available for purchase with double VIP points TODAY!!!


    Anyone know what store this is by the way?  Not interested in that empty box, but would love to get my hands on that mangled box Death Star to the right.  That's what it's gonna take for me to buy the Death Star.  Double VIP points and bonus busted box 1000 points. 
  • MrJacksonMrJackson Member Posts: 384
    @monstblitz
    Good luck on that - the Death Star box (as well as Firehouse HQ, Porsche, Disney Castle, and a couple other big ones) are probably all empty boxes, typically the ones that the built display sets came in.  At least, the ones we use are. Sure makes rotating them on and off the shelves depending on availability easier. 
    monstblitz
  • willobee498willobee498 CanadalandMember Posts: 349
    Yup, Lego knows not to put the actual sets on the shelf for high ticket items, for a variety of reasons.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    It would be funny to see someone try to run off with the UCS MF.

    There's a reason why folks don't rob a mattress store...
    Jackad7SprinkleOtter
  • CoviCovi BelgiumMember Posts: 302
    edited September 2017
    That box of the Death Star next to it has a massive hole in it. 
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,330
    edited September 2017
    Fire a torpedo into it and see what happens ;-)
    Jackad7SumoLegomonstblitzeggshenSprinkleOtter
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    I don't think that's a fully-operational LEGO Death Star.
    Jackad7SprinkleOtter
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 524
    SumoLego said:
    I don't think that's a fully-operational LEGO Death Star.
    "..and the Rebels falsely believing its superlaser was non-operational..."

    It's a trap!
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtter
  • KlintanKlintan SwedenMember Posts: 52
    SumoLego said:
    I don't think that's a fully-operational LEGO Death Star.
    Or maybe someone was testing the laser and blew a hole in the box.
    SprinkleOtter
  • DeeC2_JoshDeeC2_Josh SoCal Member Posts: 64
    That hole isn't much bigger than a womp rat..
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtter
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 438
    edited September 2017
    SumoLego said:
    It would be funny to see someone try to run off with the UCS MF.

    There's a reason why folks don't rob a mattress store...
    Stealing is the lesser concern.

    The main reason to have empty boxes down there is so little kids can actually pick up the box and look at it without the risk of the box toppling over and hurting them.
    SprinkleOtter
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Alexandria, VAMember Posts: 618
    I guess that makes sense with larger sets being empty boxes, although I do know of at least one Lego Store that keeps full Death Star boxes on the shelves.


    SprinkleOtter
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 438
    This is what I was told by the manager at my local store.  Although I think he mentioned that the decision to display empty or full is up to the manager's discretion at each individual store.
  • GjedwardsGjedwards UKMember Posts: 28
    edited September 2017
    Although probably not a surprise to Brickset members the Lego Facebook page has stated that the Palace Cinema will retiring soon, do they normally make announcements like this on Facebook?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,874
    Gjedwards said:
    Although probably not a surprise to Brickset members the Lego Facebook page has stated that the Palace Cinema will retiring soon, do they normally make announcements like this on Facebook?

    They usually use the retiring soon tag on [email protected], I don't know about facebook. The cynic in me takes it to mean that they still have loads left and need to panic people into buying.

    GjedwardsOnebricktoomanypharmjodJohnyk668Mr_Crosscatwrangler
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 344
    Wasn't Palace Cinema "missing" from the back of the box for Assembly Square? I can't remember off the top of my head, but I know one wasn't there. That's a clear indication it's GO time, if you want that set and don't already own it.
    SumoLegoOnebricktoomanygmonkey76
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,057
    ^ Until it shows up in a redesigned box and stays another 16 months on the shelves...
    CaptainPirateManRainstorm26PapaBearSprinkleOtter
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2017
    I am a subscriber to the camp that Disney will want this monster around for awhile.  I believe that the production will outstrip the original and that #10179 will retain a good chunk of its value.  There aren't any more of them than there were origianlly, and lets face it, only the hard core collectors were buying them on the aftermarket anyway.  The original was the lego equivilat of the '52 Topps Mickey Mantle for Card Collectors.  No matter what, it was the touchtone card that set off the craze in the early to mid 1980's and while the rest of the lot has mostly crashed in value over time, the '52 Mantle remains in demand.  Collectors have always made it a grail target of thier collections.

    The bigger issue facing collectors in the aftermarket is Lego's persistance to push the top end price of thier product.  There are so many more sets available today than just 5 years ago and the top end of those sets on average is so much higher that Lego is capturing more of the discretionary funds being spent on the product.  I'm not sure where this is going to end, but I think we are in line for a market correction as Lego floods the Market.  They just announced a bunch of layoffs company wide because the last quarter showed massively slowing growth.  While the company is still growing, the percentage has dropped to the single digits, and they seem to be a bit put off by the drop.

    CCC
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,428
    It may be time to sell all of my unopened sets. I bought extra Fire Brigades, Grand Emporiums, Town Halls, and Pet Shops so I could build other buildings with them. I have plenty of others. Hopefully, they survive the hurricane.
    FollowsCloselynorm103Pitfall69Legogramsnowhitie
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,874
    wagnerml2 said:
    I am a subscriber to the camp that Disney will want this monster around for awhile.  I believe that the production will outstrip the original and that #10179 will retain a good chunk of its value.  There aren't any more of them than there were origianlly, and lets face it, only the hard core collectors were buying them on the aftermarket anyway.  The original was the lego equivilat of the '52 Topps Mickey Mantle for Card Collectors.  No matter what, it was the touchtone card that set off the craze in the early to mid 1980's and while the rest of the lot has mostly crashed in value over time, the '52 Mantle remains in demand.  Collectors have always made it a grail target of thier collections.

    The bigger issue facing collectors in the aftermarket is Lego's persistance to push the top end price of thier product.  There are so many more sets available today than just 5 years ago and the top end of those sets on average is so much higher that Lego is capturing more of the discretionary funds being spent on the product.  I'm not sure where this is going to end, but I think we are in line for a market correction as Lego floods the Market.  They just announced a bunch of layoffs company wide because the last quarter showed massively slowing growth.  While the company is still growing, the percentage has dropped to the single digits, and they seem to be a bit put off by the drop.
    While LEGO is definitely pushing their top prices higher, I don't think they're doing so with any particular lack of caution or forethought. Like, it took ten years for LEGO to release a set over the previous record price of $500, and when they did it was a redesign of the one that had set that $500 record in the first place. The other $500 set, the Death Star, came out after a long and successful shelf life at a $400 price point. Make no mistake, if these huge sets don't sell well, LEGO will just start dialing the prices back again, just like they did after the original versions of those sets came out in 2007–2008.

    Really, it's rare for LEGO to dive right into the deep end of the pool. More often, they start with smaller initiatives to dip their toes in the water, then take baby steps until they have enough confidence for a bigger initiative. Ninjago City is pretty big at the $300 price point, but LEGO probably wouldn't have taken that step if they hadn't first tested their limits with a $200 Ninjago set (Temple of Airjitzu) and a $250 LEGO Movie set (Metalbeard's Sea Cow). Likewise I doubt they'd have released the $250 Minecraft Mountain Cave if they hadn't first had a good experience with the $200 Village. It's worth noting that D2C sets in general tend to be somewhat niche, and are not produced in the same huge numbers as smaller sets. They also make up a relatively small slice of the LEGO Group's production slate. So while to us consumers they're a big deal, to LEGO they're a pretty measured risk.

    As for the impact on the aftermarket, though, I do think you're right that these big sets will have an impact. What that impact is is hard to say.
    • Will the aftermarket see growth as more sets come out that end users can't afford until after they're retired? Or will it shrink as end users find themselves spending more on sets in the primary market, leaving them with less to spend on retired sets?
    • Will the wealthiest collectors take less interest in filling out their collections with retired sets as getting a "complete collection" becomes more and more expensive, or more interest as it becomes more and more prestigious?
    • Will less wealthy collectors see re-releases or re-imaginings like the Winter Toy Shop or Carousel as reason not to bother collecting retired sets from series like the Winter Village or Fairgrounds on the aftermarket, or an incentive to start collecting those long-running series in the first place now that some of the most iconic parts of those series are more accessible?
    I'm sure a lot of you who follow the aftermarket more closely and have already seen hints of what's to come have better answers to these questions than I do. It's just something to mull over.
    BumblepantsricecakeLyichirMr_Crossasrfarinha
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,124
    I dont know.

    I think the group of people most interested in buying this released UCS MF set will do so within the first 6 months - a year tops as they scrounge together funds.  I don't see the casual fan buying it in say 14 months time.  I really think with the price point and targeted audience that this is certainly a less than 2 year production run maybe a year and 6 months.
    FollowsClosely
Sign In or Register to comment.

Shopping at LEGO.com or Amazon?

Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon

Recent discussions Categories Privacy Policy

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.

As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.