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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,351
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/172792804071?rmvSB=true

    LEGO reselling, 2017 edition.
    Bumblepantsdougts
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,480
    That's a little suspicious, no?  Death Stars are packed one per shipping box, so that is 70 casepacks on essentially a D2C product.


  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,665
    Brutal. Imagine being stuck with those.
    SumoLegoFollowsCloselyprevere
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,179
    ** From Above Listing**
    This Is A lot of 70 sets of the Lego 10188 all in Brand New Condition.
    Item are discontinued and hard to find (collectible)
    Please ask for best price.
    Comes packed on two pallets, pallet 1- 40 Pieces pallet 2- 35 Pieces

    I know I'm a bit thick but am I missing something?  
    sid3windrJackad7
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Good luck trying to dump 70 of these all at once at the full RRP price.  
    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,344
    Is samiam advertising his own auctions? :-)
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,009
    samiam391 said:
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/172792804071?rmvSB=true

    LEGO reselling, 2017 edition.
    And the price is MSRP. Crazy.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 869
    So this is what happened to LegoFanTexas?!  (Just kidding. And man I miss that guy.)
    BumblepantsdougtsprevereSumoLego
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,665
    hoyatables said:
    So this is what happened to LegoFanTexas?!  (Just kidding. And man I miss that guy.)
    No he was smart and saw this coming and got out of the game while he was still ahead.
    dougtspharmjod
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    Bumblepants said:
    hoyatables said:
    So this is what happened to LegoFanTexas?!  (Just kidding. And man I miss that guy.)
    No he was smart and saw this coming and got out of the game while he was still ahead.

    You didn't have to be smart to see it coming.  More a case of if you didn't see it coming.......



      .
    CCCJackad7
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Combined with the growing popularity of Lepin and other clone brands, Lego flooding the market with an increasing number of sets annually, and Lego producing sets for longer durations (Tower Bridge, etc.), I just don't see reselling as a worthwhile endeavor. I'm sort of surprised there are still as many resellers as there are.
    FollowsCloselyryjay
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    You get things cheap enough and you can still make money. For me it has always been about a self sustaining hobby. I'm over it though. I will still buy what I like and will jump on the occassional crazy deal but I'm starting to liquidate my inventory as well.
    Bumblepants
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 927
    Going to be an interesting few years coming up, I'm very tactical in what I buy too now, yet I still see people buying in bulk at near retail price saying how it will double by next year 'because the internet said so'
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I keep saying this, the used market is really strong.  I just did the best show I've had in three years over the weekend.  Sold used to new at basically a 2:1 ratio.  The easy dollars are gone, but there is still a healthy market.  

    I have liquidated alot of my unopened stock, but much of that was stock from the mid-2000's that had crazy appreciated and could not and should not be replaced.  I buy the occassional SW and exclusive sets for resale here and there now, but I am moving my inventory almost exclusively used.

    BumblepantsSumoLegoJackad7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,480
    Bumblepants said:
    hoyatables said:
    So this is what happened to LegoFanTexas?!  (Just kidding. And man I miss that guy.)
    No he was smart and saw this coming and got out of the game while he was still ahead.
    He used to be @BeanieBabyFanTexas, and later @FurbyFanTexas...

    He may @ShopkinsFanTexas, but I can't confirm...
    ricecakepharmjodBumblepantsRainstorm26preverecatwrangler
  • Switchfoot55Switchfoot55 The Northwest, USAMember Posts: 2,080
    ^I heard he's @FidgetSpinnerFanTexas now
    SumoLegopharmjodtamamahmBumblepantsricecakeRainstorm26FollowsCloselywagnerml2catwrangler
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited July 2017
    Yeah, the party is definitely over. After 6 years of June sales averaging over 3K, here's how June, 2017 went:

    Total sales Profit %
     $40.00   $21.50  0.54

    But I cannot complain about the margin!
    samiam391
  • elspankdogelspankdog TexasMember Posts: 403
    I assume that is not 0.54%
    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAKerreJackad7
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,351
    CCC said:
    Is samiam advertising his own auctions? :-)
    Very proud owner of 0 of these monstrosities... I'll stick to figures, thanks. ;)
    CCCSumoLegoJackad7
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    @Ecmo47....was that margin or profit?   


  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited July 2017
    Profit, I guess. What was left after shipping, Paypal fees, Bricklink fees, packaging and initial costs were deducted from the sale price. No "wage" costs were included. After looking up Websters definition of "margin", I'm not sure what the difference between the two are.
    ryjay
  • sid3windrsid3windr BelgiumMember Posts: 1,452
    I'd say margin is before costs other than initial buying cost, and profit is after costs (including wage).
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    Profit is a dollar (pound or given unit of currency) figure that is an actual number which equals gross revenue minus gross expenditure.  Margin is ALWAYS a percentage figure. It is calculated by dividing your total profit by your total sales. Margin is used for the sole purpose of calculating an enterprises profitability (expressed as a percentage).  For example - if you make exactly the same revenue with twice the expenditure then your margin (profitability) is halved.  As a basic rule of thumb, anything less than a 40% margin and you need to be wary about an enterprise and its expenditure. Anything more than 70% and you need to start looking more closely at the figures to make sure the operation is actually calculating them correctly.  FWIW - don't be too stressed if you don't understand the EXACT differences - I've met more than a few owners of multimillion dollar companies over the years who when asked about exact margin and accurate calculation just shrug and direct you towards the companies accountants (who in these instances are almost always overcharging for their own services while not providing the business owner with any better understanding of the true profitability of their enterprises).
    nicoyagomez
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,344
    Don't get into profits .... is it gross profit, operating profit or net profit? Is it profit margin or profit mark-up? etc ....

    MAGNINOMINISUMBRAdougts
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    I also found it interesting that in @ecmo47 's calculations there was no accounting for a wage.  This is known as an EBIT/PEBIT margin. (Earnings before income tax vs PROPRIETERS earnings before income tax).  The amount of business owners who don't take their own wages into account (or don't even technically pay themselves a wage ) is quite mind boggling!  Pro tip - if you're EVER considering selling a business, make sure you pay yourself an ACTUAL wage for a year or two prior to selling.  Even if it impacts upon your margins, nearly every investor (or broker for that matter) likes to be able to see just what a business is capable of as an 'arms length' (no personal time expenditure) investment.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    CCC said:
    Don't get into profits .... is it gross profit, operating profit or net profit? Is it profit margin or profit mark-up? etc ....

    Well that's going to depend entirely on if we're using actual, historic or projected depreciation and where in the equation we're going to include tax accountability (and if we're talking income, value added or additionally/ separately applied taxes) for that matter, how much of that liability are we actually servicing in our area of operation versus area of registration?

    Even SIMPLER rule of thumb - do we have more money and shiny stuff than we did last year?  PROFIT!
    CCCsid3windr
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    If only we had all decided to invest in bitcoin instead of Lego sets circa-2010 to 2011...
    FollowsCloselyJackad7MAGNINOMINISUMBRASumoLego
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,344

    Even SIMPLER rule of thumb - do we have more money and shiny stuff than we did last year?  PROFIT!
    That's what I use!
    Jackad7MAGNINOMINISUMBRAnwr122
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    I have more Lego than last year. Is that profit?

    By seriously, thanks for the Business 101 class. Very informative.

    One point on wages. Counting that in your overall costs depends on what the goal of the endeavor is. If it's to generate income to pay the mortgage, put food on the table and send the kids to college, then it needs to be factored in so that you can see if you are using your 24 hours a day effectively as possible. If it's just an extension of your hobby, then your time spent is counted in the unwinding/de-stressing/relaxing column of life. Like finding some extra golf balls while searching the rough for yours.
    elspankdogJackad7catwranglerlentilOnebricktoomany
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,344
    ecmo47 said:
    I have more Lego than last year. Is that profit?

    Definitely, especially for the hobbyist. If you can buy a set, keep the parts you want and sell on the rest for what you paid for the set then it is a profit.
    BumblepantsJackad7
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,665
    Anyone else surprised to see the Classic Batcave still hanging around in-stock and on discount? It has been almost a month that way in the US [email protected] site.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,344
    Not really.

    Nice minifigures. Nice car. OK Bat-copter. As for the rest of it ...

  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 927
    Seconded, haven't even bothered buying one, the price point is rediculous I think
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,480
    And the moment it is actually retired, there will be an inexplicable bump in price.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,938
    edited August 2017
    stevemack said:
    Seconded, haven't even bothered buying one, the price point is rediculous I think
    IMO it was.. at Retail. I bit at the 20% off though. Of course, I like the Classic batman as well (which is not everyone's 'cup of tea')
    Onebricktoomany
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    What's the verdict on the Simpsons D2Cs life spans? Picked up the CMF series when they came out, just got the Simpsons House. I'd like to get the Kwik-E-Mart before it retires too. Is it still safe for the time being?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited August 2017
    Did anyone else hear that loud "BOOM"? That was the sound of the aftermarket price on the previous UCS MF hitting the floor.
    bandit778SumoLegoJackad7VorpalRyusnowhitie
  • DraugDraug CanadaMember Posts: 34
    edited August 2017
    Farmer_John said:
    Did anyone else hear that loud "BOOM"? That was the sound of the aftermarket price on the previous UCS MF hitting the floor.
    Yep!  As a collector, I am a bit disappointed.  It hurts that a valuable part of my collection is now worth maybe $450.

    But also as a collector, the new UCS MF is quite an amazing model.  The only thing better about my 10179 is the better ABS they used back then won't crack like many of my new pieces.

    So, there are Pros and Cons to a re-release like this.  I expect the biggest ramification will be on the aftermarket price of all retired sets; it is really obvious from the last year that LEGO has no problem re-releasing sets in this era.  Retired sets will still rise in value, but not to the absurd levels they once were, because at some point the mass public will simply deem it too expensive and wait for a hopeful and eventual re-release.  

    The biggest downside is each re-release devalues my collection, and that sucks. Collecting anything is way less desirable if it doesn't appreciate in value.
    Jackad7
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,344
    Farmer_John said:
    Did anyone else hear that loud "BOOM"? That was the sound of the aftermarket price on the previous UCS MF hitting the floor.
    I cannot see it hitting the floor. It will drop, but will probably still be worth more than the current UCS MF RRP.

    Draug said:
    Yep!  As a collector, I am a bit disappointed.  It hurts that a valuable part of my collection is now worth maybe $450.

    Stick it in the marketplace for $800 and you'll find a buyer. Easily.

    madforLEGOgmonkey76FollowsClosely
  • DraugDraug CanadaMember Posts: 34
    edited August 2017
    ^^^ Yeah, $450 might be an exaggeration. But it's built, so until the new Falcon retires one day, the 10179 will be worth less than the 75192 RRP. 

    At that price, I may as well be a UCS MF Completionist!
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,187
    I wonder how many people have shorted the 10179 since the initial rumors hit.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,480
    Since I'm done posting in the Rumours thread, I'm happy to see this discussion livening up.

    Although there will be an initial decline in value, the number of original UCS MFs is still much rarer that the anticipated run of the new mammoth set.  

    Frankly, I think most folks that couldn't (or wouldn't) spend $2500.00 on a UCS MF are probably not spending $800.00 on a new one anyway.

    I'm not sure how exactly the collectors market will take the new release, as most of us want the original for its bragging rights and exclusivity.  (Baseball card collectors want rookie cards for their rarity and exclusivity, even though there may be dozens of other subsequent cards of the same player.
    Jackad7Farmer_Johnmonstblitzgmonkey76FireheartSprinkleOtterAdeelZubair
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited August 2017
    I'm not saying I like the new UCS MF better than the old... In fact, I would probably prefer the old UCS MF at its RRP to the new UCS MF at its RRP. But I certainly wouldn't purchase the old UCS MF for the new UCS MF's RRP.

    My point is the old UCS doesn't carry any premium for someone like me who currently doesn't own any flavor of UCS MF. I might as well just pick up the newer, larger UCS MF if the old MF and new MF UCS sets are priced roughly the same.
    snowhitie
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I would guess that most fans/collectors want a UCS Falcon, but don't particularly care which one.  I fall in that boat. I'll be happy to have the new one and fine that I don't have the old one.  

    There is always the sub-set of course, the completionists and those who want the "rare" item in their collection, that would still perhaps pay for 10179, but overall I expect the number of potential buyers for the old version were slashed considerably.
    BumblepantsCircleK
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^ Agreed. Completionists and/or some serious collectors will still want the original and still potentially pay quite the premium for it, but the possibly larger group that just want a UCS MF of any kind will gravitate toward the new one. Even if the original dropped to say $700 (which I don't believe it will), many would think "well, for $100 more I can have the brand new one with a lot more bricks."

    If you have 1 or 2 of the original stashed away, you may still be able to find a collector out there looking for it. If you have 10, well, good luck to ya.
    dougtsSumoLegoM_Boss
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 631
    edited August 2017
    For dummy's like me who bought 10179 for way too much money on the aftermarket and rang the bell at it's peak, the only real play at this point is to sit on it.  I could see it being a nice package deal down the road once they are both retired for the completionist who wants them both.  I'll probably never recoup what I paid, but maybe someday with enough patience I'll break even.  Since I "splurged" on a mint first edition that should limit the bleeding a little anyway. 

    Not upset at all about the lost value, I knew the risk going in, and despite the lost value I'm thrilled at the prospect of this new set and being able to build it guilt free.  10179 got me out of my dark ages and taught me to not buy Lego as an investment but for pleasure. 


  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 536
    monstblitz said:
    For dummy's like me who bought 10179 for way too much money on the aftermarket and rang the bell at it's peak, the only real play at this point is to sit on it.  I could see it being a nice package deal down the road once they are both retired for the completionist who wants them both.  I'll probably never recoup what I paid, but maybe someday with enough patience I'll break even.  Since I "splurged" on a mint first edition that should limit the bleeding a little anyway. 

    Not upset at all about the lost value, I knew the risk going in, and despite the lost value I'm thrilled at the prospect of this new set and being able to build it guilt free.  10179 got me out of my dark ages and taught me to not buy Lego as an investment but for pleasure. 


    Please don't sit on it, I'm sure people would be less inclined to buy an older version if you have sat on it.

    What do you guys think about the Saturn IV? There is still a lot of demand for it but lego stopped production so it feels like it could go up.
    monstblitzsnowhitie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,480
    I don't think they stopped production, not by a longshot.
  • PapaBearPapaBear East CoastMember Posts: 492
    What about recently released sets that resellers didn't get a chance to stock up on?  The Haunted House, Town Hall, and Super Star Destroyer all come to mind.

    Wasn't the Haunted House at $600 at one point after it retired?  Now it's at $375.

    I thought the Town Hall got to $600 and now it's at $500.

    Then the SSD used to be close to $1000.  Now it's about $850.

    It seems factors such as counterfeits, long term availability, re-releases, the sheer number of exclusives available, and after market saturation aren't just affecting over stocked sets.  Even limited quantity sets in the aftermarket seem to be affected.

    I mean in 10 years, with 10 more modulars out, will people even know there was a Cafe Corner?  Will they even bother scrolling to the bottom of a database that lists them all?  Won't people just hold out for a bigger and better re-release of a new Town Hall?  I've sold a lot of used sets like SOH and The Pet Shop because I still have a few NIB, but I might as well sell everything I have and rebuy at a better time in the future.
    pharmjodsnowhitieFollowsCloselyOnebricktoomany
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    Jackad7 said:
    monstblitz said:
    For dummy's like me who bought 10179 for way too much money on the aftermarket and rang the bell at it's peak, the only real play at this point is to sit on it.  I could see it being a nice package deal down the road once they are both retired for the completionist who wants them both.  I'll probably never recoup what I paid, but maybe someday with enough patience I'll break even.  Since I "splurged" on a mint first edition that should limit the bleeding a little anyway. 

    Not upset at all about the lost value, I knew the risk going in, and despite the lost value I'm thrilled at the prospect of this new set and being able to build it guilt free.  10179 got me out of my dark ages and taught me to not buy Lego as an investment but for pleasure. 


    Please don't sit on it, I'm sure people would be less inclined to buy an older version if you have sat on it.

    What do you guys think about the Saturn IV? There is still a lot of demand for it but lego stopped production so it feels like it could go up.
    LEGO announced recently that the Saturn would be available for a while. They didn't stop production. In fact, they seem to be ready to produce quite a bit more.
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