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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,140
    At least at shops in my area, Nexo Knights has lots of shelf space; at least as much as is dedicated to Ninjago. This is still the case with the new Wave 3 sets. I also see lots of kids drooling over those sets and nagging their parents to get them, so it's likely an excellent seller.

    Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,515
    stlux said:
    At least at shops in my area, Nexo Knights has lots of shelf space; at least as much as is dedicated to Ninjago. This is still the case with the new Wave 3 sets. I also see lots of kids drooling over those sets and nagging their parents to get them, so it's likely an excellent seller.

    Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.
    Yes, same near me too. Long term performance might be poor / not great, but short term might be better.  These are the sort of sets that resellers hope go out of (retail) stock before Xmas and parents need to get hold of them as they are the ones their kids want. Whereas give it a year, when they are no longer advertised and there are new sets in the theme, and the demand for specific older sets is less.

    It's like the original minecraft set. I think that is just about at RRP now. Whereas you could easily get 1.5-2x RRP at Xmas 2012.
    prevere
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    edited January 2017
    stlux said:
    Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.
    I don't think it will even be that long. Imagine wave 7 or so, I can imagine kids getting into it then wanting to go back and get some of the first series. Like I said, I think Ninjago Wave 1 had pretty quick return on investment.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    Wave 7 would indicate that LEGO has made NEXO Knights an evergreen theme wouldn't it? I don't see that happening. I could be wrong, but I guess we will see. My position on NEXO Knights has softened quite a bit. I actually think many of the sets are pretty fun and creative. I prefer traditional castle themes but I really like the big monsters in this theme and the Fortrex is pretty entertaining. I think the Volcano Lair is one of the best looking playsets LEGO has done in years. That is the one set I will buy multiples of if I get the chance at 50% off or greater. I managed to pick up several of #70316 for $15 each yesterday at Meijer. I couldn't pass up 75% off on such a fun set. They will be great for presents even if the theme doesn't do well for reselling.
    catwranglerAanchir
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    prevere said:
    Except for Speed Champions, those will be on the shelves when the next ice age begins.
    Well it is freezing here in Cleveland, and low and behold I just realized a whole bunch of Wave 1 Speed Champions are retired. And now we've got the "Dynamic Duo" scenario happening, where TRU has boatloads and will string out the true EOL for another year.  
    Bumblepants
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    pharmjod said:
    My position on NEXO Knights has softened quite a bit. I actually think many of the sets are pretty fun and creative. I prefer traditional castle themes but I really like the big monsters in this theme and the Fortrex is pretty entertaining.
    I thought NEXO Knights was a real mess of a theme at launch but since then I've followed much this thinking. If you put the AFOL thing to one side and think how kids (in this case mostly boys) react to these bonkers but entertaining sets, then they're great. A really decent product for TLG to sell and make their margin.

    I won't be buying any to sell but I can see why consumers want them and why, at the right buy-in price, re-sellers can make good money.
    Jackad7
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,782
    I can't see any theme doing well in the aftermarket that only appeals to kids and is shortlived. AFOLs pay twice and more of RRP, parents buying for their kids don't, and kids are quick to move on to the next new thing. I can't see Chima or Nexo Knights being of interest to its target audience 2 or 3 years down the line. Quick flips if you buy cheap enough for lines like those.
    Bumblepantsjuggles7josekalel
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,515
    I can't see any theme doing well in the aftermarket that only appeals to kids and is shortlived. AFOLs pay twice and more of RRP, parents buying for their kids don't, and kids are quick to move on to the next new thing. I can't see Chima or Nexo Knights being of interest to its target audience 2 or 3 years down the line. Quick flips if you buy cheap enough for lines like those.
    The same could have been said for Ninjago in its early years. Nobody knew (including lego) of its longevity. They were sets that were mainly of interest to kids only (of course, some adults liked them, same as Chima and Nexo) and could easily have disappeared like Chima did.
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 704
    CCC said:
    I can't see any theme doing well in the aftermarket that only appeals to kids and is shortlived. AFOLs pay twice and more of RRP, parents buying for their kids don't, and kids are quick to move on to the next new thing. I can't see Chima or Nexo Knights being of interest to its target audience 2 or 3 years down the line. Quick flips if you buy cheap enough for lines like those.
    The same could have been said for Ninjago in its early years. Nobody knew (including lego) of its longevity. They were sets that were mainly of interest to kids only (of course, some adults liked them, same as Chima and Nexo) and could easily have disappeared like Chima did.
    Beyond that, look at the popularity of even some of the most short-lived classic themes. Themes like Forestmen or Unitron may not have lasted long but have certainly made their mark on the adult fanbase. Of course, for something to become a classic like that you have to play the long game... and for someone collecting sets as an investment, there's always the question of whether something will rise in value fast enough and reliably enough to be worth it compared to more reliable investments.
    catwrangler
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 977
    ^bur was ANYONE hoarding Forestmen and Unitron for resale thirty years down the track back in the day? 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,731
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    SprinkleOtterPitfall69prevere
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2017
    CCC said:
    I can't see any theme doing well in the aftermarket that only appeals to kids and is shortlived. AFOLs pay twice and more of RRP, parents buying for their kids don't, and kids are quick to move on to the next new thing. I can't see Chima or Nexo Knights being of interest to its target audience 2 or 3 years down the line. Quick flips if you buy cheap enough for lines like those.
    The same could have been said for Ninjago in its early years. Nobody knew (including lego) of its longevity. They were sets that were mainly of interest to kids only (of course, some adults liked them, same as Chima and Nexo) and could easily have disappeared like Chima did.
    In Ninjago's case, it might not have been known that it would last as long as it did, but there were some signs of it being extraordinarily popular and successful that we haven't seen for Chima or Nexo Knights. In particular, the 2011 interim result said it "has been given an extremely positive reception on all markets and is selling well above expectation", and the 2011 annual result said it "exceeded expectations and was the biggest product launch in company history" (the phrasing is a bit ambiguous there but Brick by Brick confirms that it had "the highest single-year sales of any LEGO-invented theme in company history").

    Chima did sell well in its first year, especially in Asia, but it couldn't boast that kind of milestone achievement (perhaps in part because both Ninjago and Friends raised the bar before its launch). The 2016 annual report is not out yet, so we don't know how well Nexo Knight did for the year as a whole, but the 2016 interim result merely said it was "off to a good start" — which is a good sign, but not exactly the glowing praise Ninjago got. It is worth noting that LEGO sales growth as a whole was flat during that period, though, so it may be that the Nexo Knights theme's smaller initial splash is due to factors not specific to that theme.

    All of that said, I think it is a bit risky to generalize themes as "of interest to kids only", because online it can be really tricky to judge that, particularly if you only follow a few different fansites. Several Agents sets (#8633, #8634, #8635, #8636, and #8637) seem to do pretty well in the aftermarket, even though it only lasted two years and a lot of initial reactions to that theme on Eurobricks (and to a lesser extent, Brickset) were intensely negative, with disparaging comparisons to Mega Bloks and Jack Stone popping up more than once. It was very much a kid-focused line that failed to fit into any of the classic categories like Town, Space, Pirates, or Castle, but it ended up being pretty widely beloved among both kids and adults.

    I'm also curious whether nostalgic interest for Chima and Nexo Knights might generate stronger interest than some previous kid-focused themes in the future due to them having their own TV shows. Kids' TV properties tend to generate a lot of nostalgia even if they're shockingly bad by today's standards (like many of the merchandise-driven cartoons in the 80s). That's the kind of thing that could easily motivate somebody who enjoyed these themes as a kid or teen to go back later and fill in the gaps in their collection.

    The availability of services like Netflix also means that KFOLs who missed out on Chima when it first came out might continue to discover it in the years to come. For what it's worth, just the other day while shopping at Target I encountered a girl who was seriously disappointed to find that the LEGO aisle didn't have any Chima sets. Like it or not, it did make an impression on people.
    catwranglerSumoLegoLyichirYodaliciousA.Brickovskysnowhitie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,731
    ^ There are still still Chima sets at TRU.  Right next to the Agents sets and the LotR sets...
    SprinkleOtterYodalicious
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    SumoLego said:
    ^ There are still still Chima sets at TRU.  Right next to the Agents sets and the LotR sets...
    What TRU has Agents still? :O
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,731
    SumoLego said:
    ^ There are still still Chima sets at TRU.  Right next to the Agents sets and the LotR sets...
    Seen any of the last wave of agents? Or Helm's Deep?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.



  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,793
    edited January 2017
    I'm assuming you're talking about Ultra Agents, not the original Agents!
    SumoLegoLEGOFan2
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,731
    @prevere
    You, sir, are a very, very cruel man...
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 454
    Aanchir said:
    I'm assuming you're talking about Ultra Agents, not the original Agents!
    That would make more sense to me. :P
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,356
    ^I don't have any, but there's this guy named Wong I know, I think he has some stashed away a long with some ancient magical books :)
    VorpalRyucatwranglerClutchPower
  • sid3windrsid3windr BelgiumMember Posts: 1,342
    Those pics... that must have been what the aisles looked like when I was young. I have gotten quite a few of those back then, but in hindsight definitely not enough castle sets!
    catwranglerClutchPower
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,140
    I'm fortunate to have all the Castle sets in that picture. Thanks you generous parents!
    catwranglerYodaliciousClutchPower
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,260
    Anyone else notice that #76060 Doctor Strange's Sanctum Sanctorum now has the tag of 'Retiring soon' at [email protected] US?
    Pitfall69SumoLegoClutchPower
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Anyone else notice that #76060 Doctor Strange's Sanctum Sanctorum now has the tag of 'Retiring soon' at [email protected] US?
    Now, if it will just get a great markdown.  I'll then buy all that I can.  I think this set has potential.  (to LEGO set 'you can do it!!!.... you can do it!!!...)  :-)
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Anyone else notice that #76060 Doctor Strange's Sanctum Sanctorum now has the tag of 'Retiring soon' at [email protected] US?

    Interesting.  Oddly enough, that is one of the few superhero sets I've been interested in even though I know very little about Dr. Strange. I haven't even seen the movie yet. I like this set b/c I think it makes for a great scene out of universe.  You could just as easily replace Dr. Strange with any random Wizard minifigure and it would still be cool.
    JudgeChuckBumblepantsLegogramcatwranglercloaked7ClutchPower
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    Aanchir said:
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    I understand how important it was to you, but that's no reason to trap us all in a time loop of that same moment!

    Sorry about that - Not sure what the hell happened there?!?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2017
    Well, that repeating post was followed by a Dr Strange post.  Strange, wasn't it.  :-)
    Strange, wasn't it.  :-)
    Strange, wasn't it.  :-)
    Strange, wasn't it.  :-)
    Strange, wasn't it.  :-)
    Strange, wasn't it.  :-)
    SprinkleOtterSumoLegoPitfall69ClutchPowersnowhitie
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,731
    Perhaps.
    Mr. Doctor.
    Pitfall69pharmjodVorpalRyuClutchPower
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,356
    Crap. Wong thread...
    SumoLegoBumblepantsVorpalRyuClutchPowerDon
  • blakusdkblakusdk PerthMember Posts: 35
    Toyworld still has 10234 Sydney Opera house for AU$359, worth getting a couple as investment? 
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 977
    @blakusdk
    Do they still have the Porsche on special? I think the Porsche is a better investment hold than SOH. I can't help but feel you're playing a long, long game with the Opera House. Personally haven't bothered with it (in fact I bought a couple of Dr Who's and Stranges instead) though I also openly admit this may be more to do with the small pile of Tower Bridges languishing in the dungeon!
    VorpalRyu
  • blakusdkblakusdk PerthMember Posts: 35
    ^75910? Yea they do, thanks for the advice- i also have DW and DS put away along with a SSD. 
  • TikiLukiTikiLuki ChicagoMember Posts: 60
    Aanchir said:
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Maybe.  But you can't have any of mine.
    Ah, to go back in time just for a moment.
    I understand how important it was to you, but that's no reason to trap us all in a time loop of that same moment!

    Heh heh.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    I have a pending craigslist sale for the following:
    Set NumberSet NameQtyMSRP
    10179-1ULTIMATE COLLECTOR'S MILLENNIUM FALCON1$500
    10030-1IMPERIAL STAR DESTROYER1$270
    10175-1VADER'S TIE ADVANCED1$100
    10188-1DEATH STAR1$400
    10174-1IMPERIAL AT-ST1$80
    10144-1SANDCRAWLER1$140
    7662-1TRADE FEDERATION MTT1$100
    7676-1REPUBLIC ATTACK GUNSHIP1$120
    6211-1IMPERIAL STAR DESTROYER1$100
    10186-1GENERAL GRIEVOUS1$90
    8098-1CLONE TURBO TANK1$130
    8038-1THE BATTLE OF ENDOR1$100
    7675-1AT-TE WALKER1$90
    7665-1REPUBLIC CRUISER1$90
    7754-1HOME ONE MON CALAMARI STAR CRUISER1$110
    9500-1SITH FURY-CLASS INTERCEPTOR1$90
    8097-1SLAVE I1$80
    7661-1JEDI STARFIGHTER WITH HYPERDRIVE BOOSTER RING1$50
    7666-1HOTH REBEL BASE1$50
    7680-1THE TWILIGHT1$100
    6212-1X-WING FIGHTER1$50
    7672-1ROGUE SHADOW1$50
    7679-1REPUBLIC FIGHTER TANK1$50
    7674-1V-19 TORRENT1$55
    7658-1Y-WING FIGHTER1$40
    7659-1IMPERIAL LANDING CRAFT1$50
    8017-1DARTH VADER'S TIE FIGHTER1$30
    7681-1SEPARATIST SPIDER DROID1$30
    6206-1TIE INTERCEPTOR1$20
    7673-1MAGNAGUARD STARFIGHTER2$45
    7671-1AT-AP WALKER1$40
    8095-1GENERAL GRIEVOUS' STARFIGHTER1$50
    7678-1DROID GUNSHIP2$30
    7752-1COUNT DOOKU'S SOLAR SAILER1$55
    7657-1AT-ST3$20
    7663-1SITH INFILTRATOR1$30
    7749-1ECHO BASE1$25
    7669-1ANAKIN'S JEDI STARFIGHTER1$20
    7655-1CLONE TROOPERS BATTLE PACK4$10
    4488-1MILLENNIUM FALCON1$7
    8014-1CLONE WALKER BATTLE PACK1$12
    7670-1HAILFIRE DROID & SPIDER DROID2$20
    4487-1JEDI STARFIGHTER & SLAVE I1$4
    7660-1NABOO N-1 STARFIGHTER WITH VULTURE DROID1$30
    7656-1GENERAL GRIEVOUS STARFIGHTER1$20
    8091-1REPUBLIC SWAMP SPEEDER1$30
    7668-1REBEL SCOUT SPEEDER2$10
    7913-1CLONE TROOPER BATTLE PACK1$13
    7654-1DROIDS BATTLE PACK2$10
    4495-1AT-TE1$7
    4486-1AT-ST & SNOWSPEEDER1$4
    7914-1MANDALORIAN BATTLE PACK1$13
    4484-1X-WING FIGHTER & TIE ADVANCED1$4
    4489-1AT-AT1$7
    4492-1STAR DESTROYER1$7
    6205-1V-WING FIGHTER1$10
    7667-1IMPERIAL DROPSHIP2$10
    4490-1REPUBLIC GUNSHIP1$7
    4494-1IMPERIAL SHUTTLE1$7
    4491-1MTT1$7
    4485-1SEBULBA'S PODRACER & ANAKIN'S PODRACER1$4
    8028-1MINI TIE-FIGHTER1$5
    6966-1JEDI STARFIGHTER1$5
    4493-1SITH INFILTRATOR1$7
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited February 2017
    ^ The seller wants MSRP for all the sets. He is asking 4K for 6K worth of used sets. would you pull the trigger on this lot?

    Lego Lot Details
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,731
    Yes.
    SumoLego
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 456
    I wouldn't have even asked... And I'll be half way up the road picking it all up....
    VorpalRyurichoSprinkleOtterClutchPower
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    This "busy" man ran out of space and did not have time to build , so he tossed all the boxes to save storage space. All of the UCS sets are still in sealed baggies!
    SprinkleOtterTyresOFlahertysnowhitie
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    What a unique situation. That my friend is an incredible opportunity, just for #10179 alone. And how ironic that of all the sets on that list, the least appealing one is #10188.
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    ^ 10188. I unloaded them all months ago. Now I have another one to deal with. But at least the bags are sealed on that one.
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