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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    @ Farmer_John I am thinking about Wednesday the 14th. I will let you in on my secrete if it happens. ;-)
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    well since the town hall comes out march 1st and will retail at 199 us dollars.

    The fire bridgade will stop being made that time. They then will continue to sell out their inventory. If some are still left by black friday they will be discounted then and will be gone.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Another related question is whether lego sets are EOL'd more at certain times of the year than other times? We all know that BF sales typically lead of a barrage of EOL'ding of sets. I think it would be interesting to see the statistic from the Brickset database on a couple things related to this thread:

    1) A list of the months (in descending order) that experience the most EOLing of sets by Lego.
    2) The same list as above only on a per Theme basis.

    That would be a very interesting analysis (if I had access to the database). ;-)

    P.S. Statistics can provide so many insights into the behavior of Lego, etc..
    I don't have any statistics, but generally most sets that go EOL do so sometime between early November and late December. There are generally a handful of other sets that go EOL at random times during the year, but most are at the end of the year.
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    edited February 2012
    From my experience working there. Most sets are EOL during the holidays. The other times are when the product isnt performing as well and lego decides they want us to take them off the shelf's. In order to promote the new lines. So this year a few technic sets will be EOl during the summer, Some harry potter, and the pirates. Since the Monster Hunters will get forth priority, Marvel third and Lord of the Rings will get 2nd main priority.


  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Who knows why, but the best that I remember the MF went EOL in Jan or Feb, didn't it? It bucked a trend, didn't it? I remember it happening, but don't remember the exact time of year. I recall getting an email from [email protected] one day that it would be dropped in price from $500 to $400 (if I recall the price correctly) and that I was allowed to get a max of 2. I didn't realize what a great opportunity it was at the time, but figured it was a good deal (20% off), so I put in my order for 2. Have since sold one and still have the other. That was the experience that opened my eyes, so I will never forget it. Even if I do forget exactly when it happened. :-)

    Since then it has been a long and twisty road to try and apply logic to this thing called LEGO set retirement, or EOL as I have since learned it is referred to. :-) Sadly, I don't understand it much better now than I did back when I bought those 2 MF's. :-) There are some patterns, but nothing to hang a hat on. Yes, I too would like to see stats on how long sets are sold before going EOL. By theme, retail price, etc.

    I mean some sets seem to only be around for a few months. Like the 8265 Front End Loader, and as mentioned the Maersk Cargo Ship. Then, others seem to hang around forever, like the MMV, DS, and Luke's Landspeeder (which is a WM only set, so I figured it would be around for 14 mths, tops). As mentioned I am sure it is partially based on how many are initially made, what the sales figures are, how many retailers take, how many are reordered.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    The Falcon went out almost immediately after the 'May the 4th' sale. It's one of the only sets I can remember LEGO actually giving any kinds of heads up on discontinuing. I got mine for $250 when KB was going under, but never got around to picking up more.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    Like the 8265 Front End Loader, and as mentioned the Maersk Cargo Ship. Then, others seem to hang around forever, like the MMV, DS, and Luke's Landspeeder (which is a WM only set, so I figured it would be around for 14 mths, tops).
    I have also wondered about Luke's Landspeeder. The last two SW sets that only WM carried were the MF (mid-scale) and Imperial Star Destroyer (mid-scale), and those both went away in less than a year. The LS has been out over two years now and still going strong.

    I expect one of two things to happen with it:

    1) It gets EOL'd in the next 6 months, or
    2) It gets a $5 (or euro) price increase (like the old X-Wing (6212) did.

    I have many LS sets, and I think it will do well in the aftermarket once it is EOL'd due to the array of minifigs.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @Farmer_John The LS is one of my picks as well - to do well after EOL. I think it is priced pretty well and does have 5-6 minifigs (I forget). And, it is the Landspeeder, a vehicle recognized by pretty much everyone, like the DS and MF. Course, it has been active for so long they now have a new C-3PO mini out. I don't know if that helps, hurts, or makes little difference.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    edited February 2012
    @cloaked7 - I don't know if the new C3PO helps or hurts, but the number of minifigs is a definite plus. I think the number of minifigs is a big reason why the old X-Wing (6212) receives a higher rating and is a better all-around set than the new X-Wing. Toss in the fact that SW minifigs are now glued on magnets and the LS set is a great way for Lego SW enthusiasts to pickup affordable SW minifigs.

    And to your point, the Landspeeder itself can't hurt... In fact, I've purchased a few Landspeeders w/o the minifigs on eBay for $5-7 each. I figure I should be able to make a few dollars on those once the LS is EOL'd.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Been thinking the same think about the LS a long time now. Not currently, but much of the time the LS has been in the top 25 in Lego sales and it has been on back-order a lot. Like the falcon, its a very iconic vehicle.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,324
    edited February 2012
    As a fairly new AFOL'er, I don't know why Lego doesn't just re-release Cafe Corner and the other modular sets. There's obviously a market for them and they're not tied to a pop-culture theme like Indiana Jones or Harry Potter.
    Honest question, but debated every time the question comes up.
    I think it is safe to say that the demand of LEGO collectors does not match the 10's of thousands LEGO can sell of a new set that has never been produced.
    Also if LEGO constantly recycled products two things could happen: One, disappointed fans who wait for the next new set only to see a 'retread' sitting on a shelf taking the space of what could be a new set (plus it is also good for marketing... 'Better buy one now before it is gone', etc). Two is that Cafe Corner, and Market street as well, do not have the details that the later sets have. I know the Market Street is an empty building and I think Cafe Corner basically is as well, and probably would not make sense to sell an 'inferior' (compared to the new) set. Not to mention the price of Market street (as people forget) was $90 dollars MSRP, lord knows what they would need to charge now for it, and how many parents would really buy a 'half' building set for 120, especially when their are creator house sets that go for 40-50 dollars? This is excluding the AFOLS and everyone else on the site here that say they would, of course. But that is (as others have also said on this site) really is a drop in the bucket compared to all the kid fans of LEGO and their parents who have never heard of the term AFOL.

    I know people constantly ask 'why not', and I (and others) also point to the 'Legend' sets of the late 90's early 00's.
    I'm guessing, since the Legend Metroliners had to be put on sale for something like 50-75 dollars (honestly cannot remember) to get rid of them, that LEGO feels that re-treads will only hurt their profit margin instead of help.
    Maersk sets do get redone, but I am guessing LEGO does this because Maersk, and not necessarily LEGO, wants to have those sets again, and since LEGO must make them for Maersk why not also make a few to sell at the stores as well.
    But I think it is safe to say that the odds are heavily stacked that Cafe Corner and Market Street are gone for good.
    You may see a similar set that looks like both, but I doubt you see an exact set.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,324
    I'm bullish on the Mog but haven't bought any to date. Imo, its too new and there are other sets that appear to be retiring sooner. If I had unlimited funds I would buy a bunch at the next good opportunity. But I think its always best to buy what "appears" to be retiring first. TUOM
    Ill get a few MOG's... when the price is at least 25% off each... which sadly due to TRU will not easily occur... hopefully Amazon has them and discounts them.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    edited February 2012
    Just a thougt, but has anybody considered that the secondary market might be hit by the fact that lego are getting better all the time. What I mean is, I can't remember a time where there has been so much product I have wanted, so if I missed something, why would I pay $500 for say a modular set I have missed, when I could pay $200 for the current next best product, lets say Town Hall for example.
    Or another example, why pay $150 for an EOLd X-Wing, when the current version is $50 and a much better design.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    If Legos products are getting better that would mean most likely more people are getting into lego thus the secondary market remains. Many of these people, including myself, set out to collect certain sets in lines like modulars and UCS. I still miss some sets I want, but I usually put them on my list to get or I buy them right after EOL. I'm sure some people will forget about Cafe Corner because they can get a corner building like GE instead, but it is people that want complete collections that drive the huge sales on the aftermarket for these sets. I don't limit myself to just UCS either, I have bought sets after EOL just because they look cool and I didn't pay enough attention when lego was selling them.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, that's true. Logically speaking. I think collecting is a much more emotional thing than a logical thing. Why would a person pay $1750 (latest MF price on eBay) for any LEGO set, speaking logically. The only logic reason I see for doing so is if the buyer thought it would be worth even more after a year or two.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @richo - I have thought about that many times...

    That is one reason to stick to sets that aren't easy to replace. UCS Falcon will never be done again. Taj Mahal won't either... Emerald Night is unique, we might get another steam engine some day, but it won't be the same...

    The X-Wing? Yea, that has been done, it will be done again... I agree, the current one is the best, other than the UCS X-Wing of course... And even then the current one has a few advantages over UCS X-Wing, mini-figs and a more "swooshable" design.

    Tower Bridge is unique, it will never happen again... That sort of thing...
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    People pay $1750 for the MF because it is the most iconic lego set ever made. The logic for it is "buy it now before it goes up anymore". I'm sure some people buy it to resell later, but I'm sure that's few and far between.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ - I agree with this, it might have made sense at $1,000 or so to buy to resell, but the price can't go up forever, there is a limit...

    I suspect $2K is around that limit, a few will be sold over that, but that is really pushing it for most people I think. :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @Dougout I agree with your statement. But, what I meant is how is any LEGO set worth that much money? It isn't something you must have. What does it provide for the owner? Many purchases are based on emotions, not logic. You got to have food, a roof over your head, clothes on your back, and hopefully good health. But, $1,750 for a toy? The whole collector thing is emotional in my opinion. So, when it's an emotional thing it's tough to think about it in a logical way.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    You are really gambling if you are gonna buy it for around $2000 to hope to make a few hundred off it. If people do they are foolish in my opinion. I bought one for $1750 about two weeks ago because I had been watching it steadily increase from about 1200 for months and months. There was no way I was gonna let this set get away from me. I'm very happy, even though I haven't opened it because I don't have the space right now.
  • AvengerDrAvengerDr Member Posts: 453
    edited February 2012
    What do you guys think about the Slave I? I think that was discontinued some time ago. It's an iconic ship (just a bit less known). I'm waiting for a good discount to get it for myself.. but was wondering what its potential could be.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Uh Oh, a huge emotional purchase. :-) Just kidding.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I am not a SW expert, but I have several Slave 1's, so I think they will go up in value. I tried to get the ones I did at a good price. Thing is, some sets you can find at a good discount before they EOL, some you can't. I never found the S1 at a huge discount.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I agree, but who is spending $1750 on a toy and not being emotional? They are worth that much because that is how much people like myself value it. I may not pay $2000 for the MF, but I certainly think it is worth that much from a sentimental point of view. The whole reason I didn't buy it at $1200 is because thats $1200!! Its not a small amount. However, the risk of not getting one would be way more devastating to me than actually paying 1750 and having it come down some money. You have to consider that people don't want to constantly check auctions and BL to get the best price, so sometimes its better to jus pay the BIN than wait for a good price.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    A slight tangent, but speaking to what the UCS MF might eventually sell for. What is the highest the 7191 UCS X Wing sold for on eBay?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    @Dougout, I understand completely. We all buy things based on emotion. We all buy 'toys' and pay a lot for them. All hobbies are emotional. I am a cyclist and have 2 $2,000 bikes. Most people don't understand spending that on a bike. My 'emotional' comment was in response as to why a person would buy an older set of the X-Wing when the newer version is better. They do so for an emotional reason, so you can't apply much, if any, logic to it.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Highest completed auction on ebay for NISB is 820. I would say it went past $1000 a at one point.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Just a thougt, but has anybody considered that the secondary market might be hit by the fact that lego are getting better all the time. What I mean is, I can't remember a time where there has been so much product I have wanted, so if I missed something, why would I pay $500 for say a modular set I have missed, when I could pay $200 for the current next best product, lets say Town Hall for example.
    Or another example, why pay $150 for an EOLd X-Wing, when the current version is $50 and a much better design.
    This is exactly my case for not holding on to a set longer than a year or two. Something else will come out to diminish its value -- even if its not the exact same thing. I cringe a bit when people speak of holding on to sets for 5 - 10 years.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Logic almost goes out the window when your talking about spending that much money on "toys". I've never spent more than about $400 on any toy other than lego. I've spent that much on gaming consoles and I think that's it. 99% of the people, if I told them, would think I'm crazy, including my family. Like a cyclist in love with a bike or a musician in love with their instruments, I am just a boy in love with the MF.

    I didn't see your emotional comment, sorry. I was just justifying my purchase for people thinking I'm crazy. I don't know why someone would buy the older x-wing to the newer one, (I sure wouldn't) but, yea, I'm sure they're wrapped in emotions when they do so.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Another thing I don't get. The Maersk Train, 10219, is selling for around $150 on eBay and Amazon right now. What gives? It is still available at [email protected] for $120, and TRU for $130 (with free ship). I figure people just don't know about [email protected]?

    But, regardless of that. I take it as a sign that will set will sell for a good profit when it is EOL'd. My fear is that there won't be any left by then and it won't be on clearance at [email protected] So, I'm thinking I need to get some when TRU runs a BOGO. What are your thoughts about 10219?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I found like 20 slave Is on clearance back in December at Walmart. I got 5, the rest were all gone in a few days. I think they will do well considering the last $50 one sells at around $250 new and this one seems more improved. From what I hear, Slave Is and podracers seem to be the most wanted sets from Walmarts huge sale.
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    Maersk train came out in 2011 and trains are always popular so I doubt it will be EOL'd this year. The Yellow cargo train and the Red passenger train will be the first ones to go IMO.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    I like the Maesk train, but little chance it will be gone this year. I would say back end of next year.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited February 2012
    Just a thougt, but has anybody considered that the secondary market might be hit by the fact that lego are getting better all the time. What I mean is, I can't remember a time where there has been so much product I have wanted, so if I missed something, why would I pay $500 for say a modular set I have missed, when I could pay $200 for the current next best product, lets say Town Hall for example.
    Or another example, why pay $150 for an EOLd X-Wing, when the current version is $50 and a much better design.
    Another thought, especially for the UCS sets. These can continue to rise in value because they are very difficult to duplicate from one's own inventory.

    Not all, but most have some unique parts that make it nearly impossible to complete via Bricklink or other sources. A few years ago, I bought an incomplete UCS X-wing for $200 with instructions and box. Figured great deal, and it was (after I got the smoke smell out of it). But I had to dish out $60 for the cockpit. It also uses a bunch of "Bellville flower pots" in dark gray - those go for $8-$12 each on BL.

    Same goes for the MF, and so on.

    This helps the long-term value of these sets.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Yea, and from what I understand Lego never remakes these molds once they're gone so there is no way for these exclusive parts to be duplicated in other sets.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Logic almost goes out the window when your talking about spending that much money on "toys". I've never spent more than about $400 on any toy other than lego. I've spent that much on gaming consoles and I think that's it.
    Oh, I'm sure you could think of more if you put your mind to it. Maybe not individual pieces, but a lot of toys quickly exceed $400. Thomas the train comes to mind. We easily spent over $2000 on all the sets, trains, tracks and tables. Like Lego, you just get into getting the "new" trains, different tracks, and tunnels etc. Have to admit, I really miss the Thomas days :(

    RC cars?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    edited February 2012
    I suspect $2K is around that limit, a few will be sold over that, but that is really pushing it for most people I think. :)
    I like legos, but I would have to consider how many other sets I could pickup for $2K. That's 13 GE, 5 DS, 5 SSD, 8 TB, and so forth. At $2K for a collectible set, that's a whole different market. I would argue that $1K for a single set is too.

    When sets like the MF go over $1K, then there is zero logic and 100% emotion. JMO.
  • AvengerDrAvengerDr Member Posts: 453
    Have you never heard of Sideshow WETA? :D Those are collectables in the truest sense of the word as they were released in limited edition.. If I only had the 300$ (IIRC) for the Balrog statue at the time.. I dread even to think about how much it would cost now.. Yep there's an auction going on now for a used one and it starts at 750£!
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 416
    I draw the line at twice RRP if I'm buying aftermarket. In the end, these are just toys I can do without if I have to.

    I know people scuffle at the idea of Lego re-releasing sets but the only people who lose out are the people who intend to invest and the collectors that falsely believe Lego sets are 'rare' collectibles. Otherwise Lego and the true consumers would benefit from it.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I know people scuffle at the idea of Lego re-releasing sets but the only people who lose out are the people who intend to invest and the collectors that falsely believe Lego sets are 'rare' collectibles. Otherwise Lego and the true consumers would benefit from it.
    Whether or not LEGO would benefit from this at all is debatable. Individual elements go out of production, demand decreases, etc., etc. LEGO doesn't want to sit on a ton of overstock, which is why they burned off their remaining stock of MFs back in the day. Precedent exists to suggest that LEGO won't be so quick to EOL sets that are performing exceptionally well - as is the case with the Death Star.

    But let's say LEGO does re-release a set. 10179, we'll say. What are they going to do? Charge $1000 for it? LEGO's not going to be able to get NEARLY as much money out of a set that they're currently producing as a third party would after it's discontinued.

    So, while your argument that this would be good for the 'true' consumer (not at all sure what you meant there, honestly... as if the people buying aftermarket sets aren't consumers or something) holds true, this wouldn't even begin to make good financial sense for LEGO as a company.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    rarity as a concept is defined by supply and demand. If a set is produced, then removed from production, and there is then not many available to purchase, or not as many to satisfy residual demand, then you might want to describe it as rare for those people at this time in the products life. Remember, even Lego like to control supply of certain lines, it is why they have their exclusive and hard to find labeling.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    True about the Exclusive and Hard to Find labeling, but it's not always accurate. At least I don't think so. The 6212 set was designated "Exclusive! Limited Edition" on all that I have, but it was available forever. Not LE in any way, shape, or form. It now seems that the X-Wing is so iconic that one will always be available and for years at a time. Is the new version labeled LE?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    edited February 2012
    The 6212 set was designated "Exclusive! Limited Edition" on all that I have, but it was available forever. Not LE in any way, shape, or form.
    I agree...but find it interesting that a set that was around forever is actually doing well in the aftermarket; even with the release of a newer and better designed X-Wing. Furthermore, the 6212 has a better rating everywhere you look (may be subject to change over time). I have to believe it is the minifigs with 6212 that are making a difference. I think that is a big reason why 7965 will also do so well when it is EOL'd.

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    7965, Yup... I need to get some more of those, the MF always does well, whether UCS or Midi, or Mini... Just one of those iconic SW ships. And, the minifigs. Shouldn't forget about those. :-)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    So, what about the Space Shuttle, 10231? It's another one that is already selling for more than retail on eBay. It's also a unique set, sort of. It caught my eye recently. Is it worth picking up at TRU when they have a BOGO sale?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    So, what about the Space Shuttle, 10231? It's another one that is already selling for more than retail on eBay. It's also a unique set, sort of. It caught my eye recently. Is it worth picking up at TRU when they have a BOGO sale?
    Absolutely...if you can get a good price. I got one for my kids when they first came out and it's a really neat set. They had some problems with the set's stability and had kits you could request from Lego CS. They temporarily pulled the set (and prices went straight up) to provide a permanent fix to the problem. The new sets should solid.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,909
    I'm planning to get either the VW Camper Van or the Shuttle Expedition at the LEGO Store Grand Opening. Which one do you prefer, and which one will go higher in value once it is EOL'd?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited February 2012
    ^^I have not built either, but I've seen them both in person. They are both great sets, but I would recommend the VW camper. It will most likely rise higher in value also.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^^10231. I think the fact that 10231 is the revised edition makes it a better set. They are too similar of sets for the fact that 10213 was only released for a short time to make it any more valuable.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    ^^10231. I think the fact that 10231 is the revised edition makes it a better set. They are too similar of sets for the fact that 10213 was only released for a short time to make it any more valuable.
    Another reason why I love Brickset and this thread in particular...

    I never realized there were two different shuttle sets that are almost identical because I never looked that closely at the set numbers to catch the difference. Is the only difference name change and the stability fix?
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