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Comments
I think making it a CMF series ultimately killed it. You can probably army build with Homers but who else is useful in multiples?
There's a few good things they could have done. The music room with the other kids and instruments would have been nice, or a classroom with Bart and his classmates. A nuclear power plant with Homer's work area, the break room, and Mr. Burns' office would have been a nice addition too. The lack of a Principal Skinner figure is a pretty glaring omission though.
As for the Disney CMF's, there's a ton left around here.
I'm told they are also extremely thin on the ground in continental Europe. I see them doing VERY well in the long run.
IMO Disney CMF will never catch up with CMF series 1 in terms of prices. Not when there are so many out there compared to what Series 1 was. One reason is also that CMF Series 1 will still be rising as CMF Disney is. Maybe in 5 years Disney CMFs may hit levels of Series 1 now, but Series 1 is likely to keep rising as well (This also assumes that Disney figures are not just redone at a later time, which IMO, is far more likely than CMF Series 1 being redone.)
Also I was wondering what you guys think of investments on UCS sets going forward? I've been looking at the recent sets and from what I've seen sets that are popular (slave I, Tumbler) do quite poorly in the after market while sets that are not well received (b-wing, obi-wants interceptor) go up after they are discontinued. I would like to comment on how long the sets were in production but I came out of the dark ages when most of these sets were just being discontinued (I know slave I is not discontinued). Most of my are from monitoring bricklink and eBay. On ebay in particular I've really seen the Tumbler struggling to sell for it's msrp (*facepalm* for way overspending immediately after it was discontinued) and the slave I can easily be found for 150-170 with a week of patience. I am not counting our wonderful zero feedback spam name sellers who happen to have 5 of the exact same opened set in my observations.
With the tumbler, I'm ok with 50% jump over retail in year 1 EOL.
Same for #76060 Doctor Strange's Sanctum Sanctorum. Slightly longer available than #76039 Ant-Man Final Battle, but not by much?
Show me where you see NISB tumblers selling for under retail. Even used are selling close to retail, which was $199.
I could see Ghost-Rider also having a short shelf life.
BTW - I'm ready for Target to bring back its killer deals from Dec...
What happens next though depends on how soon it starts to become scarce. I have a sense that many sets become scarce on the UK market earlier than on the US one.
I've had one on ebay for the past two months~ missing ten parts ship only and its not selling for $120. I'm tempted to buy the ten whopping parts(none of which are rare),figures and instructions to sell it but I saw one sell for 160 with instructions/figs. I would have bought had I 1. Had any confidence in the market 2. Not already had two of them. Yeah occasionaly some sorry sap will pay 280 sealed on ebay BIN but with a week of patience you could get one in the box at 220 or out of box at 180. If these are all such great amazing deals I'll start leaving the links for you all to invest in them.
^That's great that you got a smokin' deal on your sets, but I would venture a guess that most people are not able to purchase the exclusive sets at much of a discount.
After a cursory ebay search of 76023 for the U.S., it looks like these sets have recently been selling for around $280-$300 including shipping. That doesn't seem terrible, but it doesn't seem great, either. If you didn't get a discount on the purchase price, a $280 resale price is a very slim profit after fees and shipping.
The whole point of my post to begin with was to counter the false statement that the tumbler was under retail. I'm all for speculation and future value but don't make factually incorrect statements. The tumber NISB routinely sells for more than MSRP especially in the USA.
Is it a huge winner? Depends on a lot of factors. Maybe not for the majority of johhny come lately investors. I would however wager that a good many seasoned investors were able to get their inventory at some sort of discount. Any appreciation above msrp is now or will be profit for them.
Let's say I paid $200 + tax for the Tumbler. In California (where I live), that would be $216. I sell it on ebay for $280. Minus 13% in total fees, minus $15 for shipping (if I'm lucky), and that's $228.60 left. That's a whopping $12.60 in profit.
Even if you live in Oregon or some other place with no sales tax, I would really have to question whether you would truly net $40 on the sale.
Beyond that, even a $40 profit is absolutely not worth it in my opinion. As you stated, this isn't passive income we're talking about. You have to do a lot of work to earn that measly $40. You have to spend time buying and storing the product, creating the listing, packaging the product, and shipping it. That's a lot of work, and will realistically take at least an hour or two of your time. All in all, I really don't see how anyone feels that is worthwhile.
The time issue is why I still have thousands of dollars of Legos sitting around from circa-2011/2012. Pre-kid, I had plenty of time to sell, although it still was a bit of work. With a full time job and a kid, I just don't feel like spending the time and effort to unload all of the stuff I have, much less buy new stuff for even less profit!
Sorry in advance, but I wont consider selling anything currently in case anyone happens to ask. I'd rather spend my free time relaxing!
The lower you buy yours new, the more profit you're likely to make. Most resellers don't buy at retail unless they expect aftermarket growth to be huge. Pharmjod has pointed this out a few times.
I have what I would be a healthy stash of a few sets for reselling down the line (still very small potatoes for for many here), and I got them all for 50-60% of RRP, there's hardly any sets i'd buy at retail or close to it for resale later.
The markets for minifigures (inc CMF sets) vs sets vs parting out are so different. Even though they are all lego, they are essentially different products. You could even split sets into big sets and small sets as again these are different types of market, although there would be a fairly arbitrary cutoff somewhere between the two.
Does anyone see any long term positives for Chima? I know there was such a glut of sets in a short time, and so many could be had at big discounts, but the sets themselves were very unique compared to anything else. What is the likelihood that we'll see a similar mech/animal line in the near future, and would the absence of such be enough to get folks to give Chima a second (or first) look?
I got mine 10% off (day they sold out, too....), so they are slightly cheaper than $200. Going rate on BL seems to be $270. Take out ~$17 in fees, and I'm left with way over $40. For, again, buying a set, throwing it on a shelf, making one listing, and then boxing it (stuff I already do).
I've sold nearly all my Chima investment sets, mainly at RRP or slightly under, all at 200% or more of my cost price (so at least double my money).
Personally, I don't think it will a strong after-market theme. Too specialized and those that would be nostalgia buyers are far-off in the future.
Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.
It's like the original minecraft set. I think that is just about at RRP now. Whereas you could easily get 1.5-2x RRP at Xmas 2012.