Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

VorpalRyu · January 2017

Rainstorm26 said:

I suspect there is too much supply of Disney Series 1 for it to perform like the original series 1

Unless you're in Australia, the Disney & Lego Batman Movie CMFs have been so rare they're considered a myth in some places.

Yodalicious · January 2017

^^ And in the US, there are still tons around. I live in a decently sized metropolitan area, so there are plenty of shopping options, but the shear number of Disney CMFs I still see is amazing.

Bosstone100 · January 2017

I think the problem with the Simpson's CMF series was that there was no regular theme to go with it. Seriously, the Disney theme will have a mish mash of characters and buildings from a million different movies but the Simpson's has 25 plus years of material and they couldn't make a theme out of it? Scatter the main characters out a bit but do some of those minor characters, much like they are doing with the Lego Batman movie line. They couldn't do a school bus with Otto? A classroom/playground with Bart's friends, etc. The music room with Lisa and her friends? A goofy looking car with Homer's brother. Tons of guest stars over the years would make great characters.

I think making it a CMF series ultimately killed it. You can probably army build with Homers but who else is useful in multiples?

cloaked7 · January 2017

^ We'll see, but I disagree. I think Disney will do just as well, if not better. Why? Because it's Disney. You're pulling in not only LEGO fans, but Disney fans too. It's probably safe to say there are more Disney fans than LEGO fans. Course, the question is - how many Disney fans know about LEGO Disney minifigs?

SithLord196 · January 2017

I don't see Lego going anywhere near Otto, Moe, or Barney from The Simpsons.

There's a few good things they could have done. The music room with the other kids and instruments would have been nice, or a classroom with Bart and his classmates. A nuclear power plant with Homer's work area, the break room, and Mr. Burns' office would have been a nice addition too. The lack of a Principal Skinner figure is a pretty glaring omission though.

As for the Disney CMF's, there's a ton left around here.

MAGNINOMINISUMBRA · January 2017

Echoing @VorpalRyu s comment regarding Disney S1- EXTREMELY limited release in Australia. I saw an empty box once in my travels but that was it. I'm also told by official resellers that they were only able to order once and once only and then only received case numbers in the single digits no matter how many they tried to order. It's a real PITA to read about the number of these warming shelves across the US!
I'm told they are also extremely thin on the ground in continental Europe. I see them doing VERY well in the long run.

CCC · January 2017

SithLord196 said:

I don't see Lego going anywhere near Otto, Moe, or Barney from The Simpsons.

There's a few good things they could have done. The music room with the other kids and instruments would have been nice, or a classroom with Bart and his classmates. A nuclear power plant with Homer's work area, the break room, and Mr. Burns' office would have been a nice addition too. The lack of a Principal Skinner figure is a pretty glaring omission though.

As for the Disney CMF's, there's a ton left around here.

They could have done characters like Barney and Moe if they did, for example, Pin-Pals or B-Sharps.

pharmjod · January 2017

I feel like the Simpsons line was a wasted opportunity. That would have been a great theme to experiment with limited run, online only orders. Iconic locales in Springfeld I think could have done well. Probably never know though.

CircleK · January 2017

Wasn't Series 1 CMF relatively rare as well? That was way before my time, but I seem to recall others saying that they were not widely available and were difficult / impossible to find in a lot of areas.

pharmjod · January 2017

Yes. I only ever saw them at TRU and only at the service desk. Series 2 by comparison was at Walmart, KMart, Meijer, Target and TRU just to name the stores around me.

CCC · January 2017

Series 1 in UK were reasonably common. They were in regular places like Argos and WHSmith and toy stores. I seem to remember them hanging around at the time. £2 for a generic minifigure seemed to be a lot back then.

madforLEGO · January 2017

I found one series 1 box out of four TRUs in my area. Series 1 was insanely rare for the US and if not for sites like eBay and BL they would have been really rare in the US.

IMO Disney CMF will never catch up with CMF series 1 in terms of prices. Not when there are so many out there compared to what Series 1 was. One reason is also that CMF Series 1 will still be rising as CMF Disney is. Maybe in 5 years Disney CMFs may hit levels of Series 1 now, but Series 1 is likely to keep rising as well (This also assumes that Disney figures are not just redone at a later time, which IMO, is far more likely than CMF Series 1 being redone.)

Jackad7 · January 2017

I'm hesitant on most things that have already peaked. The cmf series became popular so now most people who are into investing in Legos (or oddball items in general) will be looking at the cmf's in general for new opportunities. Another strong deterrent for me is the Disney cmf series is really specific, really the only people who are going to be collecting these are investors or lego+disney fans. The collectable minifigures in itself really broad, easily added to any lego collection. Now the continuation of cmf's series is causing a desire to have the rare cmf series one similarly to other collectable objects where the original is worth the most. I really dont see this for disney cmf because it's not the first cmf and the Disney theme really thins out the audience.
Also I was wondering what you guys think of investments on UCS sets going forward? I've been looking at the recent sets and from what I've seen sets that are popular (slave I, Tumbler) do quite poorly in the after market while sets that are not well received (b-wing, obi-wants interceptor) go up after they are discontinued. I would like to comment on how long the sets were in production but I came out of the dark ages when most of these sets were just being discontinued (I know slave I is not discontinued). Most of my are from monitoring bricklink and eBay. On ebay in particular I've really seen the Tumbler struggling to sell for it's msrp (*facepalm* for way overspending immediately after it was discontinued) and the slave I can easily be found for 150-170 with a week of patience. I am not counting our wonderful zero feedback spam name sellers who happen to have 5 of the exact same opened set in my observations.

prevere · January 2017

With the tumbler, I'm ok with 50% jump over retail in year 1 EOL.

pharmjod · January 2017

Slave 1 is still available, so doesn't really count. I'd wager it's a great seller for LEGO. How it does when it retires largely depends on how long it is available. The tumbler was relatively short lived. It's a nice set. Of course buy in is everything. I got all of mine at $117 each in damaged boxes after it was sold out everywhere. So from my perspective I've essentially doubled money after fees and shipping for less than a 1 year hold. I'm fine with that.

Jackad7 · January 2017

prevere said:

With the tumbler, I'm ok with 50% jump over retail in year 1 EOL.

I meant it is under retail.

stlux · January 2017

After #75150 Vader's TIE Advanced vs. A-wing Starfighter, another SW Rebels set with a short shelf life? #75158 Rebel Combat Frigate is now tagged "Retiring Soon" on [email protected] US. No such tag on [email protected] EU yet.

Same for #76060 Doctor Strange's Sanctum Sanctorum. Slightly longer available than #76039 Ant-Man Final Battle, but not by much?

CCC · January 2017

Jackad7 said:

I'm hesitant on most things that have already peaked. The cmf series became popular so now most people who are into investing in Legos (or oddball items in general) will be looking at the cmf's in general for new opportunities.

Yeah, I wouldn't buy Series 1 CMF as an investment now. There are so many coming out now that it wouldn't surprise me if many new collectors simply don't bother going back and try to buy all the past ones. Sure, some will, but not enough to double your money on a zombie or nurse. Will people really pay $80 for a nurse (double the $40 or so now). I doubt it. Whereas that money could be spent elsewhere on current items and you'll probably double your money in three years. But also I think it is correct that current CMFs will not rise to 10x their RRP. There are simply too many investors these days for that to happen, and too much product. 2x is possible for many, 5x likely for a few and 1x if you are lucky for the dogs of the series.

pharmjod · January 2017

Jackad7 said:

prevere said:

With the tumbler, I'm ok with 50% jump over retail in year 1 EOL.

I meant it is under retail.

Show me where you see NISB tumblers selling for under retail. Even used are selling close to retail, which was $199.

prevere · January 2017

stlux said:

After #75150 Vader's TIE Advanced vs. A-wing Starfighter, another SW Rebels set with a short shelf life? #75158 Rebel Combat Frigate is now tagged "Retiring Soon" on [email protected] US. No such tag on [email protected] EU yet.

Same for #76060 Doctor Strange's Sanctum Sanctorum. Slightly longer available than #76039 Ant-Man Final Battle, but not by much?

I'm not sure Ant-Man got the "Retiring Soon" label at all, or maybe just for a minute. It was out what maybe 4 months?

I could see Ghost-Rider also having a short shelf life.

BTW - I'm ready for Target to bring back its killer deals from Dec...

Fireheart · January 2017

pharmjod said:

Jackad7 said:

prevere said:

With the tumbler, I'm ok with 50% jump over retail in year 1 EOL.

I meant it is under retail.

Show me where you see NISB tumblers selling for under retail. Even used are selling close to retail, which was $199.

Currently for sale: collection only, but shows the demand for the tumbler..

Secretjedi · January 2017

I think the Tumbler will do very well. We'll never see that particular Batmobile again. I would have thought it a bit early to make money from that model

Gjedwards · January 2017

I think in the US the Tumbler is performing better

mountebank · January 2017

The reason for that will be the relatively long time #76023 was available for a good discount at UK retailers (like Smyths) followed by decent availability once it was clear it was EoL.

What happens next though depends on how soon it starts to become scarce. I have a sense that many sets become scarce on the UK market earlier than on the US one.

Pitfall69 · January 2017

Gjedwards said:

I think in the US the Tumbler is performing better

Well, you are selling yours without fees of course, so that would make it around $240 USD with fees; which is a pretty good deal.

Jackad7 · January 2017

pharmjod said:

Jackad7 said:

prevere said:

With the tumbler, I'm ok with 50% jump over retail in year 1 EOL.

I meant it is under retail.

Show me where you see NISB tumblers selling for under retail. Even used are selling close to retail, which was $199.

I've had one on ebay for the past two months~ missing ten parts ship only and its not selling for $120. I'm tempted to buy the ten whopping parts(none of which are rare),figures and instructions to sell it but I saw one sell for 160 with instructions/figs. I would have bought had I 1. Had any confidence in the market 2. Not already had two of them. Yeah occasionaly some sorry sap will pay 280 sealed on ebay BIN but with a week of patience you could get one in the box at 220 or out of box at 180. If these are all such great amazing deals I'll start leaving the links for you all to invest in them.

pharmjod · January 2017

What part of buy in price is everything did you miss? If I had paid retail for all of mine, yes I'd be disappointed right now. I paid 58% of retail. I look at sold listings on ebay as my metric. I see no NISB selling / sold for below msrp. As it stands, I'm fine with the current rate of appreciation. I am not expecting it to be a $500-$600 set anytime soon and will have sold mine long before it gets there. I never said go buy the cheapest ones you can find on ebay or wherever.

nkx1 · January 2017

^That's great that you got a smokin' deal on your sets, but I would venture a guess that most people are not able to purchase the exclusive sets at much of a discount.

After a cursory ebay search of 76023 for the U.S., it looks like these sets have recently been selling for around $280-$300 including shipping. That doesn't seem terrible, but it doesn't seem great, either. If you didn't get a discount on the purchase price, a $280 resale price is a very slim profit after fees and shipping.

SprinkleOtter · January 2017

Even if I make $40 on each of my tumblers, a 20% return on my money in 1 year isn't bad. More than you'd get at any bank (yes, I know it takes time to list/ship, but so does shopping around for/getting a bank account).

Jackad7 · January 2017

pharmjod said:

What part of buy in price is everything did you miss? If I had paid retail for all of mine, yes I'd be disappointed right now. I paid 58% of retail. I look at sold listings on ebay as my metric. I see no NISB selling / sold for below msrp. As it stands, I'm fine with the current rate of appreciation. I am not expecting it to be a $500-$600 set anytime soon and will have sold mine long before it gets there. I never said go buy the cheapest ones you can find on ebay or wherever.

No need to be hostile, I'm just pointing out my observations. I don't on a regular basis look for tumblers and as of recently haven't been looking at legos at all. When I do see them they're usually out of box well under msrp. Also you're very keen to point out you didn't pay full retail price for your damaged box tumblers. This is in no way relevant to the price of the tumbler on ebay as buy in was not what I was talking about in my original post. I was talking about the prices in general. As for appreciation of prices of the set NISB on ebay it really hasn't appreciated at all since it was discontinued. About a month after it was discontinued it jumped up to 280 Buy it now on ebay and it's still there now. So the immediate jump was really people who didn't get the set before it was discontinued ironically resulting in the only price increase the set has had.

pharmjod · January 2017

The immediate jump and hold is the new normal best case scenario for many sets. The LEGO investing market has changed.

The whole point of my post to begin with was to counter the false statement that the tumbler was under retail. I'm all for speculation and future value but don't make factually incorrect statements. The tumber NISB routinely sells for more than MSRP especially in the USA.

Is it a huge winner? Depends on a lot of factors. Maybe not for the majority of johhny come lately investors. I would however wager that a good many seasoned investors were able to get their inventory at some sort of discount. Any appreciation above msrp is now or will be profit for them.

nkx1 · January 2017

SprinkleOtter said:

Even if I make $40 on each of my tumblers, a 20% return on my money in 1 year isn't bad. More than you'd get at any bank (yes, I know it takes time to list/ship, but so does shopping around for/getting a bank account).

Let's say I paid $200 + tax for the Tumbler. In California (where I live), that would be $216. I sell it on ebay for $280. Minus 13% in total fees, minus $15 for shipping (if I'm lucky), and that's $228.60 left. That's a whopping $12.60 in profit.

Even if you live in Oregon or some other place with no sales tax, I would really have to question whether you would truly net $40 on the sale.

Beyond that, even a $40 profit is absolutely not worth it in my opinion. As you stated, this isn't passive income we're talking about. You have to do a lot of work to earn that measly $40. You have to spend time buying and storing the product, creating the listing, packaging the product, and shipping it. That's a lot of work, and will realistically take at least an hour or two of your time. All in all, I really don't see how anyone feels that is worthwhile.

The time issue is why I still have thousands of dollars of Legos sitting around from circa-2011/2012. Pre-kid, I had plenty of time to sell, although it still was a bit of work. With a full time job and a kid, I just don't feel like spending the time and effort to unload all of the stuff I have, much less buy new stuff for even less profit!

Sorry in advance, but I wont consider selling anything currently in case anyone happens to ask. I'd rather spend my free time relaxing!

monkeyhanger · January 2017

Comparing an incomplete tumbler (crucially missing 2 minifigs, one of which is a likely never to be repeated Heath Ledger Joker) to complete sets for sale is a little misrepresented. A complete used tumbler with box an instructions is going for around RRP in the UK as well as US.

The lower you buy yours new, the more profit you're likely to make. Most resellers don't buy at retail unless they expect aftermarket growth to be huge. Pharmjod has pointed this out a few times.

I have what I would be a healthy stash of a few sets for reselling down the line (still very small potatoes for for many here), and I got them all for 50-60% of RRP, there's hardly any sets i'd buy at retail or close to it for resale later.

asrfarinha · January 2017

Since we're talking about CMFs... and given the popularity of the other similar-looking toy that I won't name... do you think BrickHeadz might, in the long run, be similarly successful?

Pitfall69 · January 2017

nkx1 said:

SprinkleOtter said:

Even if I make $40 on each of my tumblers, a 20% return on my money in 1 year isn't bad. More than you'd get at any bank (yes, I know it takes time to list/ship, but so does shopping around for/getting a bank account).

Let's say I paid $200 + tax for the Tumbler. In California (where I live), that would be $216. I sell it on ebay for $280. Minus 13% in total fees, minus $15 for shipping (if I'm lucky), and that's $228.60 left. That's a whopping $12.60 in profit.

Even if you live in Oregon or some other place with no sales tax, I would really have to question whether you would truly net $40 on the sale.

Beyond that, even a $40 profit is absolutely not worth it in my opinion. As you stated, this isn't passive income we're talking about. You have to do a lot of work to earn that measly $40. You have to spend time buying and storing the product, creating the listing, packaging the product, and shipping it. That's a lot of work, and will realistically take at least an hour or two of your time. All in all, I really don't see how anyone feels that is worthwhile.

The time issue is why I still have thousands of dollars of Legos sitting around from circa-2011/2012. Pre-kid, I had plenty of time to sell, although it still was a bit of work. With a full time job and a kid, I just don't feel like spending the time and effort to unload all of the stuff I have, much less buy new stuff for even less profit!

Sorry in advance, but I wont consider selling anything currently in case anyone happens to ask. I'd rather spend my free time relaxing!

I totally understand where you are coming from. I wouldn't want to waste my time for a $40 or less profit, but it is all relative. A few years ago, I bought a bunch of Lloyd ZX's and I was getting anywhere from a $10-12 profit after fees and shipping. I only had to make one listing and throw them in a bubble mailer; it not only didn't take too much of my time, they did not take up much room either. At the end of the day, I made almost $200 in profit and I was happy with that. Trying to sell 20 Tumblers for for only a "$12.60 in profit" definitely isn't worth it becauae of all the money you would have tied up in a $200 rrp set, but selling 20 Lloyd Zx's to me is definitely worth it to me. The income/time factor is also worth noting. If you don't have a job or a loq paying job, one might be happy with a small profit, but if you have a good paying job, you might be better served spending your time elsewhere.

CCC · January 2017

^ This is so true.

The markets for minifigures (inc CMF sets) vs sets vs parting out are so different. Even though they are all lego, they are essentially different products. You could even split sets into big sets and small sets as again these are different types of market, although there would be a fairly arbitrary cutoff somewhere between the two.

DavidBrickley · January 2017

Does anyone see any long term positives for Chima? I know there was such a glut of sets in a short time, and so many could be had at big discounts, but the sets themselves were very unique compared to anything else. What is the likelihood that we'll see a similar mech/animal line in the near future, and would the absence of such be enough to get folks to give Chima a second (or first) look?

SprinkleOtter · January 2017

^ Sure, there will be an absence of mech/animal lines. And who will miss them?

SprinkleOtter · January 2017

nkx1 said:

SprinkleOtter said:

Even if I make $40 on each of my tumblers, a 20% return on my money in 1 year isn't bad. More than you'd get at any bank (yes, I know it takes time to list/ship, but so does shopping around for/getting a bank account).

Let's say I paid $200 + tax for the Tumbler. In California (where I live), that would be $216. I sell it on ebay for $280. Minus 13% in total fees, minus $15 for shipping (if I'm lucky), and that's $228.60 left. That's a whopping $12.60 in profit.

Even if you live in Oregon or some other place with no sales tax, I would really have to question whether you would truly net $40 on the sale.

Beyond that, even a $40 profit is absolutely not worth it in my opinion. As you stated, this isn't passive income we're talking about. You have to do a lot of work to earn that measly $40. You have to spend time buying and storing the product, creating the listing, packaging the product, and shipping it. That's a lot of work, and will realistically take at least an hour or two of your time. All in all, I really don't see how anyone feels that is worthwhile.

The time issue is why I still have thousands of dollars of Legos sitting around from circa-2011/2012. Pre-kid, I had plenty of time to sell, although it still was a bit of work. With a full time job and a kid, I just don't feel like spending the time and effort to unload all of the stuff I have, much less buy new stuff for even less profit!

Sorry in advance, but I wont consider selling anything currently in case anyone happens to ask. I'd rather spend my free time relaxing!

All good points, but all wrong in my case.
I got mine 10% off (day they sold out, too....), so they are slightly cheaper than $200. Going rate on BL seems to be $270. Take out ~$17 in fees, and I'm left with way over $40. For, again, buying a set, throwing it on a shelf, making one listing, and then boxing it (stuff I already do).

wagnerml2 · January 2017

Chima is dutch for "aboslutely no aftermarket value". Little known fact.

pharmjod · January 2017

@nkx1I feel your pain. Wife, two kids and a job with everything else makes it a challenge. I actually enjoy buying and selling LEGO though so it's fun for me. But I have thought many times about getting out. Everytime I do though, a great sale pulls me back in.

CCC · January 2017

wagnerml2 said:

Chima is dutch for "aboslutely no aftermarket value". Little known fact.

I've sold nearly all my Chima investment sets, mainly at RRP or slightly under, all at 200% or more of my cost price (so at least double my money).

wagnerml2 · January 2017

That's good. But I don't consider a set to have aftermarket value until is appreciates beyond RRP. So I stand by my original statement that Chima is garbage. :)

juggles7 · January 2017

Speaking of flops, I'm wondering if Nexo Knights is a flop, with little aftermarket potential?

SumoLego · January 2017

Nexo Knights has been an excellent seller.

Personally, I don't think it will a strong after-market theme. Too specialized and those that would be nostalgia buyers are far-off in the future.

tmgm528 · January 2017

@SumoLego To me at least Nexo Knights has reminded me of Ninjago somewhat in the way it's sold/marketed, less like Chima. Don't Ninjago wave 1 stuff do fairly well? At least the larger sets?

CCC · January 2017

wagnerml2 said:

That's good. But I don't consider a set to have aftermarket value until is appreciates beyond RRP. So I stand by my original statement that Chima is garbage. :)

Yeah, I agree. But it shows that poor performers can still be good money makers, sometimes better than good performers.

stlux · January 2017

At least at shops in my area, Nexo Knights has lots of shelf space; at least as much as is dedicated to Ninjago. This is still the case with the new Wave 3 sets. I also see lots of kids drooling over those sets and nagging their parents to get them, so it's likely an excellent seller.

Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.

CCC · January 2017

stlux said:

At least at shops in my area, Nexo Knights has lots of shelf space; at least as much as is dedicated to Ninjago. This is still the case with the new Wave 3 sets. I also see lots of kids drooling over those sets and nagging their parents to get them, so it's likely an excellent seller.

Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.

Yes, same near me too. Long term performance might be poor / not great, but short term might be better. These are the sort of sets that resellers hope go out of (retail) stock before Xmas and parents need to get hold of them as they are the ones their kids want. Whereas give it a year, when they are no longer advertised and there are new sets in the theme, and the demand for specific older sets is less.

It's like the original minecraft set. I think that is just about at RRP now. Whereas you could easily get 1.5-2x RRP at Xmas 2012.

tmgm528 · January 2017

stlux said:
Not sure though that translates in good after-market performance, as it will take a while for those kids to become AFOL's and go on a nostalgia-fuelled buying binge.

I don't think it will even be that long. Imagine wave 7 or so, I can imagine kids getting into it then wanting to go back and get some of the first series. Like I said, I think Ninjago Wave 1 had pretty quick return on investment.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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