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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • arathemisarathemis Member Posts: 624
    Obi-Wan`s starfighter is already "Retiring soon".
    Sets seem to be ending their life faster and faster it seems.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    When you have as many sets in production as lego does now, something has to give.
    Pitfall69dougtsSumoLego
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    arathemis said:
    Obi-Wan`s starfighter is already "Retiring soon".
    Sets seem to be ending their life faster and faster it seems.
    Ouch, another set out less than a year....not looking good. This keeps up, I think we will have to narrow down our want list, possibly quite drastically.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Except for Speed Champions, those will be on the shelves when the next ice age begins.
    josekalelPitfall69
  • FireheartFireheart Member Posts: 631
    Sometimes you have to question the way Lego release an updated version.. For example #75173 Luke's Landspeeder. It's been done a few times now, and most collectors have it in some form. So how many are rushing out to get it.. 
    ok you will always have a new wave of collectors that don't have these sets. But can a set that has been released with a few tweeks to a previous set, sell good enough for Lego's requirements not to be considered for retirement.. 

    josekalelJamesJT
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Member Posts: 1,018
    ^ Yes.  This is very strange to me.  Put out a Cloud City based set (even if it is smallish) instead of rehashing the same vehicle over and over.
    josekalel
  • josekaleljosekalel Member Posts: 683
    CircleK said:
    GBHQ may help the Ecto out some if it sticks around for awhile. Late comers who buy the firehouse will certainly want the car. 
    Or in my case, I have the Ecto and I now want the GBHQ...life...
    CaptainPirateMansid3windrAllBrick
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    The shortened life is rather odd to see. I've noticed that a lot of the Elves sets don't seem to be sticking around very long. It's unfortunate, as I'm not sure my fiance will be able to get an entire set of the dragons.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    SithLord196 said:
    The shortened life is rather odd to see. I've noticed that a lot of the Elves sets don't seem to be sticking around very long. It's unfortunate, as I'm not sure my fiance will be able to get an entire set of the dragons.
    @xiahna has been collecting the Elves theme too, we've managed to get everything so far, but as she sees it, if TLG are going to be reducing the timeline of availability to less than twelve months then it's one less theme we'll be collecting.

    It's kind of an odd move to make as, more people will have to purchase from the aftermarket & shorter lengths of availability will push up prices in the aftermarket, which means more people will end up buying clones of those set if available.
    Legogram
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Member Posts: 1,018
    ^Does Lepin make dragons?
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    @Rainstorm26, I don't know if they currently do, but if earlier retirement of sets is the future of TLG, I can see Lepin & their ilk adding Elves to their lists. Shortening the amount of time sets are available for will only add to the customer base for the clone makers, seems like a pretty foolish move on TLG's part, if that is the case.

    For me, it just means having to grab more of the sets I really want regardless of discounts, which in turn means focusing on few themes. Just glad we've cleared most of the backlog of sets we're after, but if this had occurred just as I had come out of my dark ages, I probably wouldn't have bothered getting back into Lego.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    Fireheart said:
    Sometimes you have to question the way Lego release an updated version.. For example #75173 Luke's Landspeeder. It's been done a few times now, and most collectors have it in some form. So how many are rushing out to get it.. 
    ok you will always have a new wave of collectors that don't have these sets. But can a set that has been released with a few tweeks to a previous set, sell good enough for Lego's requirements not to be considered for retirement.. 

    Yet things like Luke's landspeeder sell reasonably well. It is the same with police sets, fire sets, etc. They come out with very similar sets every couple of years. Lego knows these sell well. Why? They are nicely priced as presents for kids, grandkids, nephews, other people's kids (not school friends): not too big, not too small. Luke in his landspeeder is a fairly classic scene from the first SW movie. When kids get into Star Wars, they want something like that. It is minifig scale. It is a swooshable ship. It contains some popular characters. LEGO almost doesn't care about sales of smaller sets to collectors. It cares about sales of smaller sets to kids. Why almost? They change something slightly, like the Stormtrooper for the Tusken, just to make collectors want it enough to buy one. And they do.
    datsunrobbieBumblepantsFireheartstluxLobotpharmjodcatwranglerjosekalel
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    edited January 2017
    Fireheart said:
    Sometimes you have to question the way Lego release an updated version.. For example #75173 Luke's Landspeeder. It's been done a few times now, and most collectors have it in some form. So how many are rushing out to get it.. 
    ok you will always have a new wave of collectors that don't have these sets. But can a set that has been released with a few tweeks to a previous set, sell good enough for Lego's requirements not to be considered for retirement.. 

    The last one came out in 2010 (stand alone speeder anyways).  It was pretty much leaving the shelves when I started collecting in late 2012. I think I recall seeing it in my area right when I started collecting, but it wasn't around long.  I wasn't interested in the Cantina set so I waited, knowing there would eventually be a another release of just the speeder.

    So... Now we are in 2017. I've been collecting since sometime in in 2012 and this is really the first opportunity I have had to buy the stand alone speeder (aftermarket excluded). Now think about the number of kids who have come into the fold during that time. The time between releases is actually longer than it seems sometimes. 
    Fireheartstluxcatwrangler
  • spepperspepper Member Posts: 157
    edited January 2017
    CCC said:

    They change something slightly, like the Stormtrooper for the Tusken, just to make collectors want it enough to buy one. And they do.
    NO!!!! THAT'S NOT TRUE!
    *grabs pole with the only hand left to avoid falling to the void*
    *Buys new landspeeder anyway*
    catwrangler
  • LyichirLyichir Member Posts: 1,025
    Fireheart said:
    Sometimes you have to question the way Lego release an updated version.. For example #75173 Luke's Landspeeder. It's been done a few times now, and most collectors have it in some form. So how many are rushing out to get it.. 
    ok you will always have a new wave of collectors that don't have these sets. But can a set that has been released with a few tweeks to a previous set, sell good enough for Lego's requirements not to be considered for retirement.. 

    Keep in mind that "collectors" make up a small percentage of AFOLs, who in turn are a small percentage of Lego's audience. The vast majority of the audience for Lego sets is made up of kids, for whom this may well be their first Landspeeder set.

    The "collector" market isn't completely irrelevant—it's probably at least a semi-important consideration for sets like UCS sets, since the demographics are skewed more toward adults, many of whom may well have been collecting for some time. But for a cheap $20 set, they are most likely a drop in the bucket.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831

    Rainstorm26 said:
    ^ Yes.  This is very strange to me.  Put out a Cloud City based set (even if it is smallish) instead of rehashing the same vehicle over and over.
    Is #75137 not Cloud City-based?
    AanchirRainstorm26VorpalRyu
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Member Posts: 1,018
    edited January 2017
    ^I knew I would get this response.  I guess I was thinking more like the original Cloud City set.
    madforLEGOJackad7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    Legoland Discovery Center near me had #10218 Pet shops still (guessing they were still 150 USD though)
  • LyichirLyichir Member Posts: 1,025
    Rainstorm26 said:
    ^I knew I would get this response.  I guess I was thinking more like the original Cloud City set.
    I don't really know how you were picturing making that "smallish" except by limiting it to one scene like #75137. :P

    I'd love a new take on Cloud City since apart from the updated carbon freezing chamber it's long overdue, but on the other hand apart from that scene and the subsequent spire where Vader delivers his now famous line about Luke's parentage, there aren't a whole lot of scenes that could really stand on their own. Most of the action involving Han, Leia, and the rest of the gang take place in pristine corridors; the landing platform doesn't really work well without the Slave I and/or the Falcon (both of which are pretty huge these days). My dream would be a vignette-based UCS set like the Death Star featuring an exterior shaped like the city itself, but not only is Cloud City a less amenable shape for that in general (disc-shaped instead of spherical), but compared to the two movies the Death Star had to draw from there's just not as much interesting material in Cloud City to cover.
    AanchirmadforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    Agreed^- about the vignettes. I think the next Slave 1 they do (if it is not a prequel one with Jengo) should be complete with a bit of a Cloud City theme (a cloud city like portal to a hallway or something). I would say a scene where Chewy is getting all of C3PO's parts together but not sure LEGO wants to put a dismantled minifigure into a set.
    prevere
  • YodaliciousYodalicious Member Posts: 1,366
    ^ That was one of my favorite Star Wars action figures when I was a kid. Loved pulling 3P0 apart and putting him Chewie's backpack. 
    richoSumoLegopharmjodpreverebandit778Pitfall69BlueTacobinaryeyeClutchPower
  • RedbullgivesuwindRedbullgivesuwind Member Posts: 2,140

    I have to balance my lego with saving for a house and I can only save for the big sets slowly. Therefore, I am torn between getting the Helicarrier or getting the tie fighter and Detective Agency. Does anyone have a rough idea which will be going first. I think the carrier will be more expensive on the secondary market as it has way more hard to get pieces. Any clues?

  • AhwoogaAhwooga Member Posts: 2
    I picked up a helicarrier as I feel it is one of the sets most at risk of a sudden retirement and with a relatively poor uptake (probably due to price) I feel it could perform quite well. I am also quite bullish on the Marvel concept more generally as from the films these superheroes are to kids/teenagers nowadays what original trilogy star wars were to me. Owning the first really large set made in the franchise doesn't feel like the worst idea to me
    RedbullgivesuwindSeanTheCollectorSumoLegoJackad7
  • josekaleljosekalel Member Posts: 683
    A set of the dining room at Cloud City would be nice. 
    prevere
  • josekaleljosekalel Member Posts: 683
    Can anyone provide an approximate value anyone 'should' pay for retired sets? I've been wanting to get #10211 Grand Emporium but wouldn't know what would be a 'fair' price or a good price. 
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    josekalel said:
    Can anyone provide an approximate value anyone 'should' pay for retired sets? I've been wanting to get #10211 Grand Emporium but wouldn't know what would be a 'fair' price or a good price. 
    Sold prices on eBay and BL, depending on your site preference. "Should" is irrelevant. It comes down to what the going sold rate is at the time you're checking into it. 
    juggles7
  • Boardshorts85Boardshorts85 Member Posts: 183
    josekalel said:
    Can anyone provide an approximate value anyone 'should' pay for retired sets? I've been wanting to get #10211 Grand Emporium but wouldn't know what would be a 'fair' price or a good price. 
    I've been following this one on eBay for a while... you can occasionally snag a used one under $200.  NISB tends to be more in the $250-$300 range.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited January 2017
    Grand Emporium 

    Used $200 and under
    New, opened sealed bags, no box $240 and up
    Sealed $250 and up
    SumoLegoBuriedinBricksjosekalel
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Poor GE. It just never got the bump in the aftermarket, many of us thought it would.
    SumoLegoPitfall69TXLegoguy
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,237
    ^ I'm sure a bunch will show up at TRU at some random time...
    SprinkleOtterPitfall69prevereJackad7
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    josekalel said:
    Can anyone provide an approximate value anyone 'should' pay for retired sets? I've been wanting to get #10211 Grand Emporium but wouldn't know what would be a 'fair' price or a good price. 
    Bricklink 6 months sale data:

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=10211-1&ColorID=0

  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan Member Posts: 353
    I really like the GE.
  • AhwoogaAhwooga Member Posts: 2
    Sandcrawler page not available on UK S@H?
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    So is #41174 the starlight inn done early as well? Seems to be out of stock everywhere. 
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    edited January 2017
    Hmm....seems a few of the more recent Elves sets have been retired after less that 12 months, not a good sign, also means @xiahna may abandon collecting the theme. Why can I see the talk about condensing down the number the themes we're collecting happening soon if this trend continues (at least I know she won't make me give up on the Marvel Super Heroes line).
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    It's a shame on this particular elves theme as I think all the sets are pretty nice. Will he curious to see how they do on the secondary market.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    pharmjod said:
    It's a shame on this particular elves theme as I think all the sets are pretty nice. Will he curious to see how they do on the secondary market.
    Love the part selection in the Elves sets. Great color schemes too.
    Lego_Star
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,237
    Quick turnover doesn't necessarily mean the sets didn't sell well.  (And there are a bunch of other factors governing the duration of sets.)

    They did just release a bevvy of dragons.
    pharmjodSprinkleOtterPitfall69
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    ^I realize that. I'm just hoping it truly isn't an indication of sales as I really like the theme, specifically the sub theme. I've managed to find all of the sold out sets at a discount except the smallest one and the crystal mine and school of dragons. I also still need to pick up the fire dragon and water dragon at some point.
    SumoLegocatwranglertallblocktooPitfall69
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    If I'm not mistaken, LEGO itself (in their annual report maybe?) said that Elves has been very successful.

    While I do not collect the theme, I've bought a few sets and just love them. The details are fantastic. 
    MooreFXLegogram
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    I wonder if Lego may be feeling the bite of it own success. Just a few short years ago there were no "girl" Lego and now they have 4 themes. They really only have themselves to compete against. Of course, the counter argument is that there about a dozen "boy" themes at any one time and nobody is saying there are too many. 
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    I don't think people finding friends and elves at a discount means they are bad sellers or that there is too much internal competition. Just about every non-exclusive set I have bought in the past five years has been at a discount, irrespective of being a boy theme or girl theme (or somewhere in between).
    catwrangler
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited January 2017
    Mark my words, Disney Series 1 will do very well. Even today's prices will appear cheap in a year. Series 2 is an inevitability, and as a friend of mine says about virtually any collectible, 'Series 1 is King'.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    richo said:
    and as a friend of mine says about virtually any collectible, 'Series 1 is King'.
    That is only true if the series takes off. If it is canned early on, then it is not the case.

    In the case of Disney, there shouldn't be a problem.

    But take a look at The Simpsons, where they didn't do a lot of the popular B-list characters, Barney, Moe, Skinner (but they did Edna), etc. Although series 1 does better price-wise than series 2, the lack of interest in the series as a whole has kept the prices of both series down compared to other CMF series.

  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Member Posts: 1,018
    I suspect there is too much supply of Disney Series 1 for it to perform like the original series 1
    pharmjod
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Rainstorm26 said:
    I suspect there is too much supply of Disney Series 1 for it to perform like the original series 1
    I am not sure. Supply was reasonably tight in Europe, and come Series 2, demand should go up for the older figures. Anyway, just a prediction from me as per the thread title!! Let's see in a year or so. I might have a look on bricklink and see how Maleficent is selling, as it's such a good figure I expect that to be the S1 benchmark. 
    Pitfall69Legoboy
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited January 2017
    Rainstorm26 said:
    I suspect there is too much supply of Disney Series 1 for it to perform like the original series 1
    Possibly, but it is all about supply and demand. I believe there are more people interested in Disney Minifigures whether they have an interest in Lego or not; whereas, I would imagine that there is less mass appeal for Series 1 Minifigures, except for Lego enthusiasts. 

    Also, the initial cost of Series 1 Minifigures was $1.99 USD, so cases of Disney Minifigures are much more expensive.
    richomadforLEGODad
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    richo said:
    Rainstorm26 said:
    I suspect there is too much supply of Disney Series 1 for it to perform like the original series 1
    I am not sure. Supply was reasonably tight in Europe, and come Series 2, demand should go up for the older figures. Anyway, just a prediction from me as per the thread title!! Let's see in a year or so. I might have a look on bricklink and see how Maleficent is selling, as it's such a good figure I expect that to be the S1 benchmark. 
    Maleficient is also helped by having only 3 per box and having quite a few generic parts that are useful for creating other figures. Syndrome and Mr Incredible on the other hand, way too specific parts (except hair) to be much use in other figures and also 4 per box.

    But I also agree, Series 1 will do well. I seem to remember quite a lot around at the start but once gone, they were hard to find. The situation in the US seemed to be hard to get to start, then loads appeared. Although I think they will do well on both sides of the pond. The only downsides for the series are the 4 per box ones: Syndrome, Mr Incredible and possibly the Genie. The alien is a bit of an army builder, so there will be demand for him, Stitch seems to have an OK popularity and Mickey is Mickey and there will always be demand for him. If they do a series 2, then it will be interesting how they do it. Will they repeat Mickey in a different outfit for example (like they repeated in The Simpsons) so there will be some key characters to help sell the second series, for those that missed on on the first.
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