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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Agreed. One set in my mind is the 7239 Fire Truck, it was released in 2005 and it is now 2012. 6 years, and still on the shelves at TRU, Walmart... etc. Why has LEGO decided to keep this set on the shelves for so long?
    Probably because the only other option is to make another Fire Truck. Why would Lego NOT want a Fire Truck?

    The X-Wing was redesigned, why do it? My first thought was that they were not happy with the quality, and I'd agree with that, 6212 was average and showing its age... The new one looks nicer I think...

    Another reason, perhaps the older model used parts they don't make anymore, or make for anything "else" other than that set, and by redesigning it, they can use more current and common parts, reducing the cost of production.

    Finally, retiring the old set and coming out with a "new" one allows them to have a price bump. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Keep in mind guys that although a couple of sets seemed to have truly retired lately (IF, etc.), LEGO still seems to be going through a shift in retirement patterns. It's not longer "2 years and gone - bet the farm on it". MMV could be available through 2015 for all we know. If it still sells at a solid rate, they have no good reason to cease sales. Fire Brigade? Who says they can't have four, or even five modulars available at the same time? But I know at lot of you have heavy money and space invested into some of these sets.
    Wise words... Nothing at all stops Lego from keeping FB around for 2 more years, MMV as well...

    Likely? No, but possible, yes...

    At some point, the 1,600 parts for $99 is a poor return for Lego, and I don't recall them ever raising the list price on a set, they retire it and come out with a "new" set.
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,384
    ^^re the price bump, UK Toysrus currently stock both X-wings, 6212 is dearer ???!!!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Well that is TRU, what can we all say, they are nuts! :)

    List of X-Wings (year, set #, RRP)

    1999 - 7140 - $30
    2000 - 7191 - $150
    2002 - 7142 - $30
    2004 - 4502 - $50
    2006 - 6212 - $50
    2012 - 9493 - $60

    Ok, so 7140 and 7142 are really the same set, with a few minor changes... and 7191 is in a league of its own.

    4502 was the first decent X-Wing, other than 7191 of course, it at least wasn't terrible... 6212 was better, but they FINALLY got it *mostly* right with the current one. :) The windshield is still all wrong, too short, but what do you want? Go buy a 7191 if you want it to look right. Proof that given a budget, Lego can do it right, even in 2000...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Edit: BTW, looking back at 2006, 6212 was clearly released next to 6211, not a bad set overall, but showing its age now... I built it about 6 months ago, and while I liked it ok, the flaws are starting to glare... It needs a carry handle, it really is hard to move around without breaking something. It also needs a bottom, the flat bottom really ignores 1/3 of the ship.

    It is time for Lego to redo the ISD, give it a proper design to be playable, and swooshable... Give it about 1,500 parts, price it at $149, and we'll all be very happy... :)

    Oh well...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    6212 was better, but they FINALLY got it *mostly* right with the current one. :) The windshield is still all wrong, too short, but what do you want? Go buy a 7191 if you want it to look right. Proof that given a budget, Lego can do it right, even in 2000...
    But for the fact that they insist on making all these models white. I realize that even the lightest grey pieces are too dark... but man... the white drives me nuts.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited February 2012
    It also needs a bottom, the flat bottom really ignores 1/3 of the ship.
    I feel the EXACT same way about the SSD. Easily the most disappointing UCS Star Wars model aside from, perhaps, the snowspeeder.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    But for the fact that they insist on making all these models white. I realize that even the lightest grey pieces are too dark... but man... the white drives me nuts.
    I feel the same way about all the Star Destroyers...

    Someone should REALLY tell Lego that Star Destroyers are WHITE! :)

    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Star_Destroyer_White
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I feel the EXACT same way about the SSD. Easily the most disappointing UCS Star Wars model aside from, perhaps, the snowspeeder.
    The SSD is SCREAMING for a better bottom, I agree with you, but then almost none of the sets are meant to be seen from the bottom, which is such a shame, because I have several places I could hang the SSD from piano wire if the bottom was worth a darn.

    Oh well...
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Member Posts: 999
    @sidersdd,

    can't understand why on ebay/amazon etc, people think they can ask big money for the first wave of batman sets, when many of the relaunched sets are very similar. Certainly I now have no desire for any of the old sets. Surely that is telling?

    rich
    I think the older Batman sets will still hold a big appeal, particularly to AFOLs. I haven't picked up any of the Superheroes range, because they just seem a bit too 'kiddy' to me. I'm not sure if I'm in the majority or minority there. I think the first wave are far superior sets too - just compare the 7783 Batcave to 6860, or the 7782 Batwing to 6863.

    It'll be interesting to see if they carry on with more remakes when the second wave hits - in particular I'm hoping we might see a remake of the Tumbler (not unlikely with the release of The Dark Knight Rises where it will surely make an appearance).
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I feel the same way about all the Star Destroyers...

    Someone should REALLY tell Lego that Star Destroyers are WHITE! :)

    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Star_Destroyer_White
    To be fair, the original filiming models (at least from ANH) had been primed in grey before the white was applied, giving the finished product a slightly off-white look, so these don't tend to bug me even nearly as much as the X-Wings. Really, though, there are a ton of suspect colors on the SW models.

    I realize the TIE film models are a kind of bluish-grey... but I will NEVER understand why LEGO did all the original TIEs in dark blue instead of erring towards grey...
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited February 2012
    To me, the Super Heroes line up seems to be drawn from the classic, whacky Batman stuff with "POW" and "KA-BLAM" everywhere. Which is weird, because Bane is a new character (well, new for the Batman universe - 1991 I believe). Combine that with the fact that LEGO is still aimed at kids and you have "kiddie" overload.

    I think this is a detracting factor for several AFOLs, and I predict that much of the original Batman lineup will continue to sell consistently at their high prices. They're that much different than the current sets.
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    edited February 2012
    ^ Agreed. One set in my mind is the 7239 Fire Truck, it was released in 2005 and it is now 2012. 6 years, and still on the shelves at TRU, Walmart... etc. Why has LEGO decided to keep this set on the shelves for so long?
    Lego upholds this model as the symbol of their turnaround, they used images of the Town Jr. and 4+ Fire Trucks to show how fire trucks should not be made when they designed the 7239 truck. I think the model has at least to some extent stuck around for as long as it has because of it's significance.

    However, isn't this set finally discontinued form Lego now?

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited February 2012
    ^^Bane debuted in '93, at which point I actually felt like he didn't fit in with what I, at the time, thought was the intrinsic stupidity of the entire idea of Batman. I still find Batman to be one of the most uninteresting characters in comic-dom, but I commend DC for ret-conning him to be at least a little less campy and more 'realistic.'

    I do agree, though, that these sets are definitely geared towards kids, but I'm not sure how big a disuasion that will be for AFOLs in general, especially fans of Batman and DC.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    So much insight on LEGO investment. You guys are really something and I appreciate the knowledge. I feel that since we will know LEGO is into this because of the money and being it a good business, not many know the after market of LEGO. Be it Modular buildings and some SW sets. And I agree with what @LegoFanTexas wrote about finding many sets still on store shelves with value somewhat on a down side.

    I bought 60% of the Fantasy Era from my local market here for 40% off RRP. I was surprised really as back then I was not aware of the big market on Ebay or Bricklink yet and my only source to check prices was LEGO S@H. I knew since years of playing with LEGO that it is a collectible brand. No wonder both my elder brothers used to argue who keeps the most LEGO sets from the past :P but sadly, the value of those sets is not attractive. I still keep them for the sake of a collection and it helps to see how LEGO has evolved.

    I also agree with what @LegoFanTexas wrote earlier about the set design back then and the design coming out lately. My kid never liked the old City theme, nor the Space line, or the old Castle theme. But the moment he saw the Fantasy Era theme over here he did not had to ask twice to buy it and 40% off RRP was a very good price (reason being this particular store was not being able to sell a lot of LEGO back then so in 2 visits I became their best customer) but my point being, I was only able to get my hands on 60% of the Fantasy Era. Only sets left out is the Skeleton ship (don't remember the set number right now), the Kings Castle Siege, and the other Dark wizard castle as prices were very high. So the Castle theme in my opinion will never loose its value and both the Kingdoms (a big surprise hit) and upcoming LOTR will do great in years ahead since we will be able to combine both themes together. There was a reason behind LEGO getting to work on LOTR and TLG will make big bucks due to this line.

    SW is set dependent as someone in this thread wrote earlier, as LEGO keeps making better but pricey models. Its main value is in the mini figures I feel. As even right now you cannot think about buying 100 storm troopers to build an army (lets hope LEGO Cussoo gets enough supporters to bring out the Dark bucket thingy with the storm trooper army).

    Enough said for now :P



  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404

    To be fair, the original filiming models (at least from ANH) had been primed in grey before the white was applied, giving the finished product a slightly off-white look, so these don't tend to bug me even nearly as much as the X-Wings. Really, though, there are a ton of suspect colors on the SW models.
    Fair enough...

    But this is the original shooting model...

    Now am I color-blind, or is that white?

    Yes, there are shadows, but where light shines on the model, it is as white as white can be... to my eyes anyway...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    BTW, the Super Star Destroyer is indeed "gray" in the movies, almost a blue-gray...

    But funny enough, it is the exact same color in "real life", it was just shot differently and matted together with the Imperial Star Destroyer (see below picture, of course those are not in the same "shot", they are just matted together into a single shot after being filmed).

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Ok, last one... :)

    Here is what the actual shooting model looks like for the SSD
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693


    One question I have that I don't know the answer to...

    Was Lego this "collectible" even 10 years ago? 20 years ago? Prior to the past 5 years or so, did anyone care "nearly" this much about all this?

    Or is this recent?
    Yes, it's always been this collectible. Ive been collecting for well over a decade, although I'm actually paying less today for older sets than I used to in the early 2000s.

    What has changed is that LEGO has never been hoarded the way it is today. Which is good for future collectors, because the market is about to collapse.

  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ Member Posts: 4,179
    the market is about to collapse.
    Why? Do you think demand will drop?

  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Its true collectable things are part supply and demand and part faddish so the market can crash. I wouldn't mind seeing the prices of earlier star wars sets to come down.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    It has happened in past right? The market collapse or bubble being pricked....
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    the market is about to collapse.
    Why? Do you think demand will drop?

    There are sets currently being deemed worthless (as in profit in the aftermarket) like the Obi Starfighter because demand is so low and supply on the aftermarket will be high. I think demand is still high, but people are wising up and buying before EOL and before they have to pay a premium on the aftermarket. On the other side of the equation, supply is definitely growing at an alarmingly high rate which will be bad for all competing resellers and great for the buyer. I also think Lego might be learning from their past mistakes and maybe trying to drain out all the demand before the aftermarket sellers can get ahold of it.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    the market is about to collapse.
    Why? Do you think demand will drop?

    No, but supply will sky rocket. This hoarding of sealed LEGO sets is a new phenomena caused by recent surprises like the Millenium Falcon and Cafe Corner that re-stimulated the LEGO collector market that virtually began to collapse as the LEGO company put out poor quality products between approximately 1998 and 2005. People saw that, and now they start buying Death Stars by the dozens to resell in the future. People weren't doing that with Cafe Corner or Millenium Falcons.

  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ Member Posts: 4,179
    edited February 2012
    Hoarding cant be that new a phenomena. For example a few moments ago I was browsing the sales of sealed Orient expedition sets on bricklink and there's no shortage of 10 year old sealed sets, so someone must have been hoarding them. Not sure what point this makes, just an observation.

    I agree that we won't see the skyrocketing prices of CC or UCS-MF again, and also that there is a lot more supply than there used to be. I guess I just think demand will continue to rise as well.

  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    In my opinion there will be many things that can influence future resales that we cant consider yet.
    I think obviously there will be more resellers who have bought sets just for making money, at the same time if population keeps growing as it is the demand will be higher as well but of course there will be many other things to consider like shipping rates global economy, advancing of technology etc etc.
    One thing I do know is that I like LEGOs and I would rather be broke with "cheap" legos than with stocks.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited February 2012
    "I also think Lego might be learning from their past mistakes and maybe trying to drain out all the demand before the aftermarket sellers can get ahold of it"

    I agree with this. I am pretty certain lego are extending shelf lifes to squeeze additional sales. The irony is that sometimes the additional sales are from re-sellers stocking up! My parents always have a saying that might ring true here, 'nothing stays the same for ever'. This will be true of the secondary lego market, but I am unsure in what capacity. The only question that matters is whether demand can keep growing to match what is clearly a growing resale market.

    There is (just about) risk in any 'investment' though. If people who buy lots of copies of the same set are happy with the risk, then that's fine.

    I actually find it quite fun to watch from the sidelines, but there again I refuse to pay high secondary market prices. If I miss something, that's my own fault, there are plenty of other great sets always coming down the pipeline.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited February 2012
    Hoarding cant be that new a phenomena. For example a few moments ago I was browsing the sales of sealed Orient expedition sets on bricklink and there's no shortage of 10 year old sealed sets, so someone must have been hoarding them. Not sure what point this makes, just an observation.

    I agree that we won't see the skyrocketing prices of CC or UCS-MF again, and also that there is a lot more supply than there used to be. I guess I just think demand will continue to rise as well.

    There's no shortage because you could literally walk into any "off the beaten" path toy store in Europe five years after these sets were discontinued, and still find them. I bet you can still find them in smaller toy stores today. The things I found while living in southern Europe in 2005 - it was ridiculous, LEGO sets going back 20 years, still on the shelves. Still see it today in mom/pop stores in Europe, especially southern Europe where LEGO appears to take a backseat to Playmobil.

    Also, looking at sell history for the sets is an important indicatator. How long have these been listed on Bricklink? One month? Five years?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I agree with @Ma1234. I don't think the Death Star will go up much, maybe to $600 max. Theres people on BL with like 20 and 50 each and theres bound to be tons past that. Very few people stocked up on MF. I think TLG definitely noticed how many resellers came into the market after Cafe Corner and Millenium Falcon and is going to reap the benefits by allowing people to buy the DS and FB much longer than expected. The Death Star has already been out for like 3.5 years which is almost a year longer than the MF I think. You will be able to get the DS until at least 2013 I bet. I wonder if these sets fail to perform in the aftermarket, will that drive people to lose interest? Will that lower prices for more sets or other themes to go down? Lego collectors will still collect, but people just looking to make money and don't value lego may go elsewhere. It seemed like they built a bunch of new stores lately, I hope TLG isn't expanding too fast from the recent people that are joining in to make money and don't value lego.
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    edited February 2012
    As a LEGO owner I would want this demand and maybe exclusivity of older sets to continue, that is what would keep bringing in more money for lego. If LEGO is shortsighted then they might start milk as much from every set as possible now and get huge profits for a 5-10 years max. If they want to surf the wave they are on top of right now they would try to match the demand at the greatest or try to be below that.
    If only we would know what LEGO is really thinking.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    In order for things to stay collectible there has to be a limited supply and a high demand. I think Lego is selling so many sets right now and I don't believe the supply is small anymore. Lego is attracting so many people strictly looking to make money and that is usually when collectibles become less valuable. I think the market will suffer until they leave or move on.

    For me, I wouldn't sell any sets like MMV at less than the $100 I paid even if people sell it for say $80, so I don't think people that actually value these sets have to worry. Maybe if you bought 100 to make money, you could sell them for a loss just to "get out". These are the people that drive the market down because they don't have any value for lego except what the price sticker says.

    A few older people in my family bought Hess trucks when they first came out for kids' christmas presents. Those older sets the kids played with and destroyed became very valuable to collectors and then people noticed and started buying the new trucks. Now, the ones I started getting since 1995 are worth about half their retail just because of the people "speculating" on the collectibility of them. I fear these same people will drive the aftermarket on lego down. I'm surprised no one has started a new thread on this market fear/crash/bubble lol, this thread has gotten so many comments recently.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @Odindusk Smart advice.
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    There are plenty of older sets that appear to have been hoarded, most of the Star Wars sets among them, which makes sense as plenty of people bought sets to keep since they knew the value would go up, just like the Star Wars action figures did. That the kind of hoarding we see today has not occurred before I agree on, with so many people buying lots of extra copies. It's just that even if people are buying up hundreds of sets it's still a tiny amount compared to the total amount sold by Lego. We AFOLs supposedly only account for 5% of the market.

    During Lego's dark years in the early 2000's many sets did go on extensive clearance where people were able to pick up lots of copies for half or more off sticker price, like the 10001 Metroliner and the 10002 Metroliner Cab, as well as I believe the 10123 Cloud City playset. Both these sets are now worth lots more than their sticker price despite being hoarded, so I see little reason why great sets like the MMV, Maersk Train, Tower Bridge and Death Star won't do the same. No one can deny that the Emerald Night and the Imperial Flagship were hoarded following their discontinuation, yet both these sets have skyrocketed in price after only a couple of months.

    Once supply from Lego dries up, the only new copies left on the market are those owned by collectors and resellers, and there will never be any more new sets made. With a continuous influx of new fans of lego wanting those old sets, prices increase. Many sets are priced (MSRP) well below market value from the get-go, just look at sales of current in production sets from ebay or even Bricklink that are 50-100% over MSRP, so when the supply from retailers disappear, the sets assume their true market value. This is the case for lots of 10000 series sets, which have a good parts to price ratio, like the Taj Mahal, the Green grocer, the Eiffel Tower, the Carousel etc.

    The Lego market is fundamentally different from the trading card and comic book markets in that most of the products sold will be built, as it is sold to little kids who would never want to save their christmas presents in pristine boxes. Early comic books and trading cards were toys that were used and discarded, but as people became aware of their value parents told their kids to be careful with them and save them as they would become valuable in the future. That is pretty easy to do with products that cost a few dollars a piece, and whose only purpose is to be read and/or displayed, but a heck of a lot harder to do with something the kid has saved up for for months or is the "big" christmas present of the year. The low prices and small size of those collectibles also meant that huge numbers could be hoarded easily, while hoarding thousands of lego sets for extended periods of time is prohibitively expensive both in dollars and space.

    That being said, a bubble could occur if recruitment stopped to this hobby, where there would be no new fans to buy these expensive discontinued sets, or if recruitment was significantly lower than the amount of sets on the market. Today though, lots of new fans in their mid twenties to mid thirties are rediscovering their passion for this toy, and these fans of the "lego maniac" generation will want to complete their modular streets and/or their collection of favorite UCS ships. Case in point would be the Eurobricks forums that doubled in membership between the summer of 2010 and fall of 2011, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brickset had the same kind of growth.

    Another way a bubble could occur is if resellers keep selling these sets back and forth between each other in anticipation of higher resale value, without the end buyers being willing to pay this inflated market price leading to decrease in prices. It seems most resellers are not going down this route though, why pay prices well above MSRP with less earning potential and slower price growth when one can buy sets on sale where the earning potential is far greater and the rapid price growth right after discontinuation means one can turn over inventory far faster?

    Overall, I wouldn't expect Cafe Corner or UCS Falcon growth in any of todays sets, but most sets with a certain amount of appeal will likely increase in price more than enough to make it worthwhile for resellers to have this as a side business. Additionally, was a bubble to occur, the chance of resellers to take a significant loss would be very low, as they tend to invest in sets that are a great value in pieces anyways, and we could all buy lots of inexpensive discontinued sets until the supply dries up and voila, prices will increase yet again...
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited February 2012
    I'm surprised no one has started a new thread on this market fear/crash/bubble lol, this thread has gotten so many comments recently.
    Here's the one brickupdate started:

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/31209#Comment_31209

    I think there will be a crash, there usually is with anything where there is "easy" money to be made...it's basic economics with supply and demand as has been said. Everyone wants a piece of the pie once they find out a "secret" way to make extra money, the supply will be greater than the demand.

    The question is how long until it happens. I would say the bubble could grow for awhile longer...maybe 3-5 yrs. I think there's still room for lots more people to get involved and it will continue to expand for awhile. It also depends a lot on what TLG does to retire sets and keep the speculation up.

  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ Member Posts: 4,179
    It also depends a lot on what TLG does to retire sets and keep the speculation up.
    Very true - they know that it's not a bad idea to keep bringing new suckers like us on board and filling up their attics, basements and storage units, so they'll probably want to stike a balance between getting a bigger slice of the aftermarket pie themselves, whilst keeping it attractive enough to keep people investing.

  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    @tk79 I couldn't agree with you more. There's always a bust after a boom. When it will happen, I couldn't say but for those of us who grew up with LEGO, we'll always love them. Those who are in it for the money, a little retraint when buying will do a lot of good in the end. As they say don't put all your eggs in one basket. :-)
  • legoskeelolegoskeelo Member Posts: 12
    everything that goes up must come down, nothing is immune to this fact in any economy.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    One thing to note. We have seen this kind of growth in the last few years with the world economy in the dumper. What happens as the economy improves?
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    if it improves, but ye that would be interesting to see
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    @mak,

    excellent point. if some of the rampant buyers/hoarders slightly toned it back for a period, they might actually have the effect of helping the overall market and therefore themselves in the long run?

    rich
  • AvengerDrAvengerDr Member Posts: 453
    There are many variables to consider, though. I don't think that everyone and his dog is hoarding sets. Furthermore, not all resellers ship abroad so one would have to analyse the situation country by country. Maybe for a big market like the US it could be different, but in Europe? Unless there's a postal revolution, every country is a separate market.

    But then again, I'm the wrong kind of "scientist".. :D
  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    edited February 2012
    @richo i hope they do, for their own sakes :-). If a genius should come up with something else that captivates the attention of the non-LEGO addicts, that would be the busting point imo.
  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    I wonder how many non Lego fans will join thanks to LOTR sets. Perhaps a whole new wave of Afols is coming.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ Member Posts: 4,179
    edited February 2012
    I wonder how many non Lego fans will join thanks to LOTR sets. Perhaps a whole new wave of Afols is coming.
    Very good point! Mind you, we'll lose the biggest film franchise in the world this year.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    It is interesting reading on all of the speculation on too much supply and crashes yet we see sets such as Winter Toy Shop and Emerald Night that were bought in massive amounts by resellers, yet the prices easily doubled in less than 3 months.

    Lets look at 10199 Winter Toy Shop since everyone knew when it was going to retire, it was discounted and hoarded heavily at $45, and it hung around for an eternity. On bricklink there are 588 sets to go around worldwide. There maybe a few hundred more on ebay. Prices on the bay are around $90, will probably bump to $150 around this Christmas when the new winter set photos are "leaked" and the collectors come out to play. Lets assume there are 800 sets total worldwide easily accessible to collectors online.....is that really too much supply to crash the market? To me it looks like a drop in the bucket. The only way I can see prices crashing is if Lego re-releases the same set.

    All of these fantasies about prices tumbling down and being able to scoop Cafe Corner or the UCS Falcon for a few hundred dollars are best left behind.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ Member Posts: 4,179
    edited February 2012
    I was surprised when you mentioned winter toy shop - here the average sale price on ebay for BNIB is £40ish, bricklink is about £45ish, both are still below RRP. So none of that stacks up here in the UK.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    In order for things to stay collectible there has to be a limited supply and a high demand. I think Lego is selling so many sets right now and I don't believe the supply is small anymore. Lego is attracting so many people strictly looking to make money and that is usually when collectibles become less valuable. I think the market will suffer until they leave or move on.
    The problem with this of course it is tends to take down the parent company with it...

    The 4 baseball card companies in the 90s catered to the collectors and overproduced, devaluing their own product.

    Now there is 1 baseball card company

    If Lego destroys the collector market, they'll win in the short run and lose in the long run. You have to leave some money on the table and let everyone play, or no one will play with you at all...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    It is interesting reading on all of the speculation on too much supply and crashes yet we see sets such as Winter Toy Shop and Emerald Night that were bought in massive amounts by resellers, yet the prices easily doubled in less than 3 months.

    Lets look at 10199 Winter Toy Shop since everyone knew when it was going to retire, it was discounted and hoarded heavily at $45, and it hung around for an eternity. On bricklink there are 588 sets to go around worldwide. There maybe a few hundred more on ebay. Prices on the bay are around $90, will probably bump to $150 around this Christmas when the new winter set photos are "leaked" and the collectors come out to play. Lets assume there are 800 sets total worldwide easily accessible to collectors online.....is that really too much supply to crash the market? To me it looks like a drop in the bucket. The only way I can see prices crashing is if Lego re-releases the same set.
    It is a drop in the bucket, but not all sets that were "saved" are yet listed on ebay and Bricklink...

    I have many sets saved, but they aren't listed anywhere yet... I'm sure other people do the same thing...

    Now is not the time to sell Lego anyway, Christmas is the time to sell Lego, so most of my stuff is sitting in storage, come next fall I'll sort it and list it and sell it.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Finally, retiring the old set and coming out with a "new" one allows them to have a price bump. :)
    I may be wrong, but I seem to recall a price bump on the old X-Wing (6212) around the middle of its release. I think it was $5?
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    ^ Likewise, I recall a small price increase about a year ago I think, but it was across the board I thought - well in the uk anyway.
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