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The X-Wing was redesigned, why do it? My first thought was that they were not happy with the quality, and I'd agree with that, 6212 was average and showing its age... The new one looks nicer I think...
Another reason, perhaps the older model used parts they don't make anymore, or make for anything "else" other than that set, and by redesigning it, they can use more current and common parts, reducing the cost of production.
Finally, retiring the old set and coming out with a "new" one allows them to have a price bump. :)
Likely? No, but possible, yes...
At some point, the 1,600 parts for $99 is a poor return for Lego, and I don't recall them ever raising the list price on a set, they retire it and come out with a "new" set.
List of X-Wings (year, set #, RRP)
1999 - 7140 - $30
2000 - 7191 - $150
2002 - 7142 - $30
2004 - 4502 - $50
2006 - 6212 - $50
2012 - 9493 - $60
Ok, so 7140 and 7142 are really the same set, with a few minor changes... and 7191 is in a league of its own.
4502 was the first decent X-Wing, other than 7191 of course, it at least wasn't terrible... 6212 was better, but they FINALLY got it *mostly* right with the current one. :) The windshield is still all wrong, too short, but what do you want? Go buy a 7191 if you want it to look right. Proof that given a budget, Lego can do it right, even in 2000...
It is time for Lego to redo the ISD, give it a proper design to be playable, and swooshable... Give it about 1,500 parts, price it at $149, and we'll all be very happy... :)
Someone should REALLY tell Lego that Star Destroyers are WHITE! :)
It'll be interesting to see if they carry on with more remakes when the second wave hits - in particular I'm hoping we might see a remake of the Tumbler (not unlikely with the release of The Dark Knight Rises where it will surely make an appearance).
I realize the TIE film models are a kind of bluish-grey... but I will NEVER understand why LEGO did all the original TIEs in dark blue instead of erring towards grey...
I think this is a detracting factor for several AFOLs, and I predict that much of the original Batman lineup will continue to sell consistently at their high prices. They're that much different than the current sets.
However, isn't this set finally discontinued form Lego now?
I do agree, though, that these sets are definitely geared towards kids, but I'm not sure how big a disuasion that will be for AFOLs in general, especially fans of Batman and DC.
I bought 60% of the Fantasy Era from my local market here for 40% off RRP. I was surprised really as back then I was not aware of the big market on Ebay or Bricklink yet and my only source to check prices was LEGO [email protected] I knew since years of playing with LEGO that it is a collectible brand. No wonder both my elder brothers used to argue who keeps the most LEGO sets from the past :P but sadly, the value of those sets is not attractive. I still keep them for the sake of a collection and it helps to see how LEGO has evolved.
I also agree with what @LegoFanTexas wrote earlier about the set design back then and the design coming out lately. My kid never liked the old City theme, nor the Space line, or the old Castle theme. But the moment he saw the Fantasy Era theme over here he did not had to ask twice to buy it and 40% off RRP was a very good price (reason being this particular store was not being able to sell a lot of LEGO back then so in 2 visits I became their best customer) but my point being, I was only able to get my hands on 60% of the Fantasy Era. Only sets left out is the Skeleton ship (don't remember the set number right now), the Kings Castle Siege, and the other Dark wizard castle as prices were very high. So the Castle theme in my opinion will never loose its value and both the Kingdoms (a big surprise hit) and upcoming LOTR will do great in years ahead since we will be able to combine both themes together. There was a reason behind LEGO getting to work on LOTR and TLG will make big bucks due to this line.
SW is set dependent as someone in this thread wrote earlier, as LEGO keeps making better but pricey models. Its main value is in the mini figures I feel. As even right now you cannot think about buying 100 storm troopers to build an army (lets hope LEGO Cussoo gets enough supporters to bring out the Dark bucket thingy with the storm trooper army).
Enough said for now :P
But this is the original shooting model...
Now am I color-blind, or is that white?
Yes, there are shadows, but where light shines on the model, it is as white as white can be... to my eyes anyway...
But funny enough, it is the exact same color in "real life", it was just shot differently and matted together with the Imperial Star Destroyer (see below picture, of course those are not in the same "shot", they are just matted together into a single shot after being filmed).
Here is what the actual shooting model looks like for the SSD
What has changed is that LEGO has never been hoarded the way it is today. Which is good for future collectors, because the market is about to collapse.
I agree that we won't see the skyrocketing prices of CC or UCS-MF again, and also that there is a lot more supply than there used to be. I guess I just think demand will continue to rise as well.
I think obviously there will be more resellers who have bought sets just for making money, at the same time if population keeps growing as it is the demand will be higher as well but of course there will be many other things to consider like shipping rates global economy, advancing of technology etc etc.
One thing I do know is that I like LEGOs and I would rather be broke with "cheap" legos than with stocks.
I agree with this. I am pretty certain lego are extending shelf lifes to squeeze additional sales. The irony is that sometimes the additional sales are from re-sellers stocking up! My parents always have a saying that might ring true here, 'nothing stays the same for ever'. This will be true of the secondary lego market, but I am unsure in what capacity. The only question that matters is whether demand can keep growing to match what is clearly a growing resale market.
There is (just about) risk in any 'investment' though. If people who buy lots of copies of the same set are happy with the risk, then that's fine.
I actually find it quite fun to watch from the sidelines, but there again I refuse to pay high secondary market prices. If I miss something, that's my own fault, there are plenty of other great sets always coming down the pipeline.
Also, looking at sell history for the sets is an important indicatator. How long have these been listed on Bricklink? One month? Five years?
If only we would know what LEGO is really thinking.
For me, I wouldn't sell any sets like MMV at less than the $100 I paid even if people sell it for say $80, so I don't think people that actually value these sets have to worry. Maybe if you bought 100 to make money, you could sell them for a loss just to "get out". These are the people that drive the market down because they don't have any value for lego except what the price sticker says.
A few older people in my family bought Hess trucks when they first came out for kids' christmas presents. Those older sets the kids played with and destroyed became very valuable to collectors and then people noticed and started buying the new trucks. Now, the ones I started getting since 1995 are worth about half their retail just because of the people "speculating" on the collectibility of them. I fear these same people will drive the aftermarket on lego down. I'm surprised no one has started a new thread on this market fear/crash/bubble lol, this thread has gotten so many comments recently.
During Lego's dark years in the early 2000's many sets did go on extensive clearance where people were able to pick up lots of copies for half or more off sticker price, like the 10001 Metroliner and the 10002 Metroliner Cab, as well as I believe the 10123 Cloud City playset. Both these sets are now worth lots more than their sticker price despite being hoarded, so I see little reason why great sets like the MMV, Maersk Train, Tower Bridge and Death Star won't do the same. No one can deny that the Emerald Night and the Imperial Flagship were hoarded following their discontinuation, yet both these sets have skyrocketed in price after only a couple of months.
Once supply from Lego dries up, the only new copies left on the market are those owned by collectors and resellers, and there will never be any more new sets made. With a continuous influx of new fans of lego wanting those old sets, prices increase. Many sets are priced (MSRP) well below market value from the get-go, just look at sales of current in production sets from ebay or even Bricklink that are 50-100% over MSRP, so when the supply from retailers disappear, the sets assume their true market value. This is the case for lots of 10000 series sets, which have a good parts to price ratio, like the Taj Mahal, the Green grocer, the Eiffel Tower, the Carousel etc.
The Lego market is fundamentally different from the trading card and comic book markets in that most of the products sold will be built, as it is sold to little kids who would never want to save their christmas presents in pristine boxes. Early comic books and trading cards were toys that were used and discarded, but as people became aware of their value parents told their kids to be careful with them and save them as they would become valuable in the future. That is pretty easy to do with products that cost a few dollars a piece, and whose only purpose is to be read and/or displayed, but a heck of a lot harder to do with something the kid has saved up for for months or is the "big" christmas present of the year. The low prices and small size of those collectibles also meant that huge numbers could be hoarded easily, while hoarding thousands of lego sets for extended periods of time is prohibitively expensive both in dollars and space.
That being said, a bubble could occur if recruitment stopped to this hobby, where there would be no new fans to buy these expensive discontinued sets, or if recruitment was significantly lower than the amount of sets on the market. Today though, lots of new fans in their mid twenties to mid thirties are rediscovering their passion for this toy, and these fans of the "lego maniac" generation will want to complete their modular streets and/or their collection of favorite UCS ships. Case in point would be the Eurobricks forums that doubled in membership between the summer of 2010 and fall of 2011, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brickset had the same kind of growth.
Another way a bubble could occur is if resellers keep selling these sets back and forth between each other in anticipation of higher resale value, without the end buyers being willing to pay this inflated market price leading to decrease in prices. It seems most resellers are not going down this route though, why pay prices well above MSRP with less earning potential and slower price growth when one can buy sets on sale where the earning potential is far greater and the rapid price growth right after discontinuation means one can turn over inventory far faster?
Overall, I wouldn't expect Cafe Corner or UCS Falcon growth in any of todays sets, but most sets with a certain amount of appeal will likely increase in price more than enough to make it worthwhile for resellers to have this as a side business. Additionally, was a bubble to occur, the chance of resellers to take a significant loss would be very low, as they tend to invest in sets that are a great value in pieces anyways, and we could all buy lots of inexpensive discontinued sets until the supply dries up and voila, prices will increase yet again...
I think there will be a crash, there usually is with anything where there is "easy" money to be made...it's basic economics with supply and demand as has been said. Everyone wants a piece of the pie once they find out a "secret" way to make extra money, the supply will be greater than the demand.
The question is how long until it happens. I would say the bubble could grow for awhile longer...maybe 3-5 yrs. I think there's still room for lots more people to get involved and it will continue to expand for awhile. It also depends a lot on what TLG does to retire sets and keep the speculation up.
excellent point. if some of the rampant buyers/hoarders slightly toned it back for a period, they might actually have the effect of helping the overall market and therefore themselves in the long run?
But then again, I'm the wrong kind of "scientist".. :D
Lets look at 10199 Winter Toy Shop since everyone knew when it was going to retire, it was discounted and hoarded heavily at $45, and it hung around for an eternity. On bricklink there are 588 sets to go around worldwide. There maybe a few hundred more on ebay. Prices on the bay are around $90, will probably bump to $150 around this Christmas when the new winter set photos are "leaked" and the collectors come out to play. Lets assume there are 800 sets total worldwide easily accessible to collectors online.....is that really too much supply to crash the market? To me it looks like a drop in the bucket. The only way I can see prices crashing is if Lego re-releases the same set.
All of these fantasies about prices tumbling down and being able to scoop Cafe Corner or the UCS Falcon for a few hundred dollars are best left behind.
The 4 baseball card companies in the 90s catered to the collectors and overproduced, devaluing their own product.
Now there is 1 baseball card company
If Lego destroys the collector market, they'll win in the short run and lose in the long run. You have to leave some money on the table and let everyone play, or no one will play with you at all...
I have many sets saved, but they aren't listed anywhere yet... I'm sure other people do the same thing...
Now is not the time to sell Lego anyway, Christmas is the time to sell Lego, so most of my stuff is sitting in storage, come next fall I'll sort it and list it and sell it.