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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    the dynamic duo will be a smaller set that blows up in the future..but where atleast 2 yrs away
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    edited February 2012
    I think all the people on this discussion are going to compete and drive the MMV price up temporarily and then it will crash. The crash will be as everyone who bought them up realize that they will not be getting the money they expected when they initially bought them and try to at least make something off of them.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I could be wrong. I misplaced my crystal ball. :0 But, I disagree @Rainstorm26. I see it like this. It is all about supply and demand. Very simple. What is the supply on a set that is current? Pretty much unlimited and available from multiple sellers. Just think how many WM's, Targets, TRU's there are. Then, there's [email protected] and Amazon. How many MMV's are all of those large retailers selling? Now, the supply from all those retailers relatively quickly dries up, and there goes the main supply.

    Now on the demand side you have the demand somewhat increasing by people who wanted the set but put off getting it. They still want it but now it's only available on eBay. And, that supply gets lower and lower and lower. Even if there are 50 AFOL's selling a set they aren't a drop in the bucket compared to the earlier distribution. And, I don't there there are anywhere 50. And, the smart ones don't get into the water until the temp is right. ;-)

    Yes, you'll see ebbs and flows on prices on eBay. If a lot of sellers are selling it at the same time the price will go down. Someone can always undercut the competition. But, those with staying power and the cash flow to hold off selling make a nice profit.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^^ ok , ok, I'll start picking up more MMV's.

    As far as FB's go, I'm not so hot on. I definitely believe they will do well "eventually". As more people get into the modulars they will want to go back and get it but don't get the feeling it's as popular as others. Is it a sure bet? Probably as good as it gets but there are probably faster appreciating sets to get.
    I hear you...

    My thoughts on the FB are two fold...

    First, humans by nature want to "complete" things, once someone gets into the modulars, they want them all. Now I understand not everyone can afford it, but many want them all, which creates demand.

    Second, I suspect at some point there will be a Police Headquarters Modular, once there is, FB will shoot up in demand as people buy the "pair" to PH. Even Town Hall makes FB more in demand, since those two go together naturally in the real world.

    In fact, with GG way gone, GE, PS, TH, FB, and TH all make a nice "street".

    Perhaps in a year, PH will be the next "corner" set...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    another question, buy imperial shuttles or death stars? death star seems to have been out forever, but no one says that IS cant be the same
    If I can ever get my hands on a dozen shuttles for 25+% off, I'm game... That might well be a set like 10195, one that everyone "dissed", and now look at 10195, the price is $100 over RRP and going...

    Shuttle will do the same in my opinion, but it is only worth buying at 25% off, like 10195 was on Brick Friday...
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    @cloaked7 yep, you are right on. I think the easiest way to rationalize MMV is to look at the top "most wanted" sets on Brickset excluding Star Wars. MMV comes in 5th most wanted...the others are:
    1) Cafe Corner
    2) Green Grocer
    3) Market Street
    4) Town Plan
    5) MMV

    Despite this set being out for a while, it still has tremendous popularity with AFOL and goes great with all Castle related lines, HP (use it to build out a Hogsmeade), and soon to be LOTR (Bree/Prancing Pony), so it has multicategory appeal. There will be a lot of aftermarket supply but the demand should remain very high...plus from @LegoFanTexas analysis on price per piece it will be a good value even at $200.

  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Looking at eBay completed listings for the past 7 days, no Emerald Night sold for less than $150 in an unopened box. Quite a few sold for much more. A 50% jump just 2 months after retirement is significant.

    There are lots of City sets or unexciting Star Wars sets that don't rise in the aftermarket. But for sets that are "special" in some way, their values rise despite all the issues folks have mentioned here, such as hoarding. @cbaker1974's mention above about MMV being on the top 5 most wanted is good indication of this.

    Amazon is down to 132 of them, but of course, LEGO, Target, and others still have them in stock.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, and Target has the MMV for $89.89. Makes me wonder if they are price matching or clearing out inventory, or both.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @brickupdate - for once, I'm concerned at the rate MMV is selling on Amazon... (it should be much faster in my opinion, now that it is so low, I'd have thought it would be "cleaned out" by now...)

    Either:

    1. Amazon is playing with the displayed numbers and they actually have more than they show

    or

    2. This set is reaching the limits of what the market wants

    or

    3. This is just a terrible time of year to sell toys

    Oh well...
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I would be worried about sets like Death Star, FB and maybe MMV if you are trying to sell them soon after they get discontinued. I think people are stocking up on them for the wrong reasons. I am less concerned about MMV than the other two because I think it is a great set and I have a good feeling about it for some reason. FB will do better down the road if they make a police headquarters and hospital ( I assume the modular theme will continue for a while).

    @LegoTexas I don't know what to make of amazons stock sometimes. I feel like sometimes they display the right quantity and sometimes they don't. Could they really have over 1000 Tantive IVs (10198)? That seems like way too much for a set that has been discontinued since at least December. I'm am paying attention to a lot of sets just to see if the quantities jump or not.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Dougout - if Amazon really has thousands of Tantive IVs, then that means that set isn't going to do well in the long run. Will it ever make money? Yea, I suppose, but it also means that by the time it does, no one will care about it anymore.

    Something I've noticed about much older sets, with a few exceptions, while their price might look attractive, demand dries up and everyone moves on.

    10019 is a good example of a set that "should" be appealing, it "appears" to be expensive, looking at buy it now prices and Amazon's price, but if you look at actual sales on Bricklink and eBay, it isn't as rosy a picture.

    Who here is really trying to collect 10 year old sets anymore? Designs change, instructions change, build style changes.

    I've built a few of the older Star Wars sets (10030, 7191, 8002 all being good examples), and honestly they are terrible compared to the new stuff. If I wasn't such a complete Star Wars with a budget to match, I would totally pass on those sets.

    Sad, isn't it? I loved building 10030, but that is mostly because it is HUGE! It really looks impressive... 8002 is cool when it works, and the concept is great. 7191 is nice, and it is MUCH bigger than 6212, but really it just sits there and it was a PITA build.

    So... I think that a set like 10198 is rather doomed, because by the time the cheap inventory is cleared out, the demand will be gone, everyone will have moved on to something else.

    And I say this with 8 of them in the closet. :( Oh well, at least I got most of them for 33% off. :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Excellent point @LegoFanTexas. How many of a set are made, how close to retirement you get them, and the price you get them at for resell are key components in the profit formula. As you pointed out... Also, a component is the 'staying power' of a set. Yes, they bring out newer/better SW sets, often they are not unique for the long term. So, SW sets do have a chink in their armor. Which has me thinking that more generic sets along the lines of the MMV, Unimog, Green Grocer... may have a longer, and ever increasing, demand. Other pluses for such sets is that they can more often be bought on discount, they are not marked up to begin with, and their price per piece is lower. Also, not everyone is a SW fan. Adults and females like sets like the GG so your customer base is larger.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    @LegoFanTexas, if the items don't sell as expected, you can always start your own TRU and kick ass :P
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    edited February 2012
    In defense of the MMV, it has one of the best values of any sets right now, it's chock full of bricks in cool colors, has awesome minifigures and cool (expensive) animal molds.

    It's also the set that had maybe the most sentimental group of Lego collectors out there, Classic Castle, proclaim it to be the best castle set ever, in front of the yellow castle, black falcon fortress, 6086 and all those awesome castles from the 80's and 90's.

    This set should appreciate lots simply due to it's brick content, and when it becomes rarer in sealed condition, well this set will be very valuable. Castle sets usually do increase plenty in value, just look at what has already happened to the Kingdoms line.


    @cloaked7 - You hit the nail on it's head, that was well reasoned and written!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @fyrmedhatt - One thought I had regarding the Kingdoms line...

    Is that increase going to hold once LOTR comes out? Right now, you have MMV and Joust, and that is about it, to get your castle fix, so perhaps people are over spending because they have no choice?

    Will the Kingdoms stuff (and older Castle) stuff go down in value once LOTR is everywhere?

    I have no idea, just tossing the thought out. I'm very surprised by Kingdoms, and it isn't just Kings Castle, they are ALL going up, including the smaller sets...
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    @LegoFanTexas - I'm not sure what will happen with Kingdoms, I think a lot of the popularity with the castle themes are from MOC'ers, as building castles and medieval sceneries is something Lego is very good for, and they populate their worlds with armies from the official sets. This can obviously be done with LOTR as well, so maybe we will not see a significant increase in the Kingdoms prices from this summer onwards when fans shift their money towards purchasing the new LOTR sets.

    I do know many castle fans are very sentimental, and will prefer to keep their armies "yellow", so I don't think the Kingdoms sets will depreciate a lot. Especially now that the sets were pulled so suddenly and many people still want to complete their collections, and many others want to create bigger armies.

    The long term value of Castle sets is pretty astounding, just look at what price increases have happened to the sets from the 80's and 90's, where even many used sets have increased several hundred per cent in value. Even the horribly designed Knights Castle 2 sets fetch prices above MSRP these days, as builders still want the parts and some of the minifigures and minifigure equipment.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @fyrmedhatt - all good points...

    In fairness, I don't much care what sets from the 90s have done, that is too long an investment time period to actually make it a good "investment", if you can't flip them within a few years for 2 or 3 times what you paid for them, they don't make sense from the $$$ point of view.

    However, I get the general point you're making, or at least I think I do... That Castle in general is a popular long term theme that has staying power, it isn't a flash in the pan like some others have been.

    I'm surprised that PotC sets don't sell better, considering how much of those parts look like Castle to me. I actually have kept one of each of some of those, because they look like they'll drop right into a middle-ages type theme without too much work, just keep Jack Sparrow out and you have castle stuff. :)

    One question I have that I don't know the answer to...

    Was Lego this "collectible" even 10 years ago? 20 years ago? Prior to the past 5 years or so, did anyone care "nearly" this much about all this?

    Or is this recent?
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    "Was Lego this "collectible" even 10 years ago? 20 years ago? Prior to the past 5 years or so, did anyone care "nearly" this much about all this?"

    I was wondering the same thing
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    hi guys,
    assuming that both Fire Brigade and Diagon Alley will be discontinued soon, which one, in Your opinion, would be a better 2/3 years investment?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I believe DA will have a better intitial boost right after EOL, but both should do well for the long haul.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @pmercik Diagon Alley. It's a bit more under the radar (and a very unique set!)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I tend to think a "big" part of Kingdom's aftermarket popularity right now is just a result of of short shelf life and the fact there is nothing current. It's just very generic otherwise. At @legofantexas point, I can see its popularity topping out as soon as there is a viable replacement i.e. LOTR. Castle is always popular, so you will "probably" always at least get your money back but I would be concerned about TUOM otherwise. If these Kingdom sets get anywhere near the price of the previous castle sets in the short term I'd say get out fast.

    As far as PotC goes, I'm in with those. They don't sell well now because every chain has/had them stocked and Lego produced a lot. QAR & BP are awesome looking ships, licensed, inique colors & parts, and the big ships always do well. More a gamble on the other sets but Indiana does well and we do have more Pirates movies coming. Plus they have to do well given I have over 50 Pearls right now :P

    Think I will start stock piling MMV. Are there any discounts to add on to Target right now? With 10% + 5% Red Card + ???
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ Red Card 5% and AAA 10% discount is what I've been using. Also, Rewards Runner is 5.5% cash back right now.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    My goodness @gmpirate, 50 Pearls? You must have a warehouse! ;-0
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    DIagon Alley since its a large set there hasnt been a Diagon Alley done this big. I mean FB is the worst of the modulars and until they make a hospital or a police station the set wont really increase. Unless you buy the FB this year during brick friday and im talking bout trying to wipe whole selfs off. It isnt worth it.

    Diagon Alley will be a quick flip for christmas next year, wont be any Harry Potter of the shelfs and new kids are reading the books. I feel this is one of the top 5 investments in lego sets that are currently out.
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    Thanks guys,
    DA inventory 0 -> 10
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    @LegoFanTexas - I understand what you mean about sitting on sets for decades, if one is doing this from an investment perspective, then its best to maximize profits and minimize storage cost. I was mainly commenting on the popularity of castle as an "evergreen" Lego line, and how even the "worst" of the sets have appreciated in the past due to an eager fan base.

    That being said, the best years of castle were the 80's until the mid 90's, so fresh AFOLs that were kids in the late nineties and early 2000's might not have the same sentimental attachment to the theme, so there could be some stagnation in the fanbase for these sets.


    @gmpirate - Using myself as anecdotal evidence, I can say the appeal for me with the Kingdoms line was the classic two faction approach without the presence of fantasy creatures, as well as a somewhat old-fashioned set design.

  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    ^ Red Card 5% and AAA 10% discount is what I've been using. Also, Rewards Runner is 5.5% cash back right now.
    It's a shame that AAA changed their member discount a while back. It's no longer a 10% discount but rather $10 off of $100. Yes, that's 10% off of $100 but it sure was nice several months ago to get $40 off of the death star. Now, if you purchase something over $100, your discount percentage goes down rapidly.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    edited February 2012
    I am only watching from the sidelines, but this is very interesting info about the timing of selling. I agree that wait too long and too much new stuff has come along. Its almost a bell curve on value, starting at EOL and then running for a few years before falling back slightly over the longer period. Only exceptions are probably absolutely stunning sets such as UCS MF, which had very limited sales first time around.

    Kingdoms I think was very over looked during release due to all the competition from other lines. It was, in my initial opinion at least, slightly inferior to Castle, but with the benefit of hindsight, the sets seem to get slightly better. Mill Village Raid I really like, and I think for anybody who picked up these, they will go up in value quite a bit.

    No doubt somebody will tell me they have some crazy figure. :-D
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, one evening we'll be channel surfing and notice a bunch of LEGO boxes on a channel. Of course, that will catch our eye, so we'll have to click back. Only to find it is an episode of 'Hoarders'. Some person in their 80's (OK, maybe only in their 30's, who knows?) will be sitting in a lawn chair in their front yard and in their PJ's. Family members will be trying to convence the hoarder to sell some of their LEGOS. "But, Gramps... you have 50 of these... err... whatever the heck they are. Why do you need 50? You need to get rid of some of them, because right now they are blocking the hallway to the bathroom. Wouldn't it be nice to take a bath tonight? You know, for the first time in months!" Course, the hoarder responses... "Can't sell em yet. The price hasn't peaked. They'll be back in demand one day. I just know it! Now, get off my property!"
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @fyrmedhatt lol, yeah, well I come in from the opposite spectrum. I thought the previous Castle line was the best ever -- especially the skeleton faction. Seems from the aftermarket, a lot of people think so too. Kills me to think that I sold all mine so fast. I had stacks and stacks of every set from that line when TRU was doing Buy2Get3rd Free. But alas I was not the seasoned veteran I am now in the Lego game :P
  • kuwaharakuwahara Member Posts: 234
    ^ @cloaked7 thanks made me chuckle

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    Its almost a bell curve on value, starting at EOL and then running for a few years before falling back slightly over the longer period.
    A couple points which may have been discounted in the discussions above:

    1) The Lego AFOL market is growing rapidly, I believe, so that will support prices.
    2) Inflation must be factored into the appreciation of sets held more than a year because money is being printed like there's no tomorrow by governments around the globe.

    Not to get too picky, but I see the price curve as non-linear function with a different shape than a bell curve. Every set will have a different shape, but (on average) I see sets rising linearly and eventually topping out when the demand and supply come into equilibrium (not dropping like a bell curve does). Again, this is an average relationship as every set will "do its own thing."

    PotC could come back if Johnny Depp is game to make more movies (and my money says he is). Pirates (and ships like the IF) have proved their worth and they will always do well. HP series could be huge in a couple years, and DA the biggest of that series due to its cost and originality (I personally don't like HP, but can't deny it will be a winner). Kingdoms is a great series, but TLG can always make more with slight modifications (in fact, LotR is a variation from past Kingdoms sets in my opinion). I see Toy Story as a sleeper since it is unlikely there will be another TS movie made. PoP will perform average since the movie just wasn't that popular (I like the Lego series though). Atlantis may do okay a few years out, but short-term could be slow (reminds me of an underwater version of agents for some reason). Trains will always do well and one almost can't go wrong buying for resale. SW is more set dependent because Lego keeps reproducing the same general sets. In this case, the originality of the SW mini-figures within a given set may be the key (General Grievous comes to mind). Modulars (including the FB) should all go up over time because of AFOLs and their disposable income. Super Heroes have proven that they can do well, and I believe will also perform well in the aftermarket when they are eventually EOL'd.

    Just my opinion on some of the more recent sets.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Well put @Farmer_John. And, since it's well put I agree. :-) I think you're dead on. With the exception that none of us have a crystal ball, and don't know if additional movies will be made, etc.

    I was doing pretty well with Bionicles until LEGO quit making them. HF is very similar, but simply not the same, so most kids don't care about Bionicles now. Course, it is good to have a kid of the right age available, because what they see on TV, commercials... drive demand to some extent. With lines like HF and such. But, to your point AFOLs are easier to figure. Well... and they have a lot more money. :-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @cloaked7 - that is my one great concern with most of the HP stuff...

    Once it is gone, it is out of sight, out of mind, for many people... Demand will remain, but without "new" sets to bring people into the fold, then draw them into collecting the "back catalog", what will drive further sales of the sets a year from now? Two years from now?

    There will be no more movies, and probably no more books written... so while many new people will read the books for years to come, how many will even know HP Lego was ever made?

    DA might be one exception because of its value to Castle type themes and LOTR MOCs, but otherwise, will Hogwarts Castle really be in demand in a few years?

    What other licensed themes were out 5 years ago that were not updated, and are still in demand? I can't think of one...
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    @Farmer_John,

    good note, I agree with the vast majority!

    rich
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ Red Card 5% and AAA 10% discount is what I've been using. Also, Rewards Runner is 5.5% cash back right now.
    It's a shame that AAA changed their member discount a while back. It's no longer a 10% discount but rather $10 off of $100. Yes, that's 10% off of $100 but it sure was nice several months ago to get $40 off of the death star. Now, if you purchase something over $100, your discount percentage goes down rapidly.
    Right - that's what I meant - $10 off $100. I translated in my head to 10% off. Plus you gotta add something to get to the $100.

    I agree on reminiscing on the good ol days of 10% off. You used to be able to stack the coupons too - $15 off $150 promo code plus the 10% off.

  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    What other licensed themes were out 5 years ago that were not updated, and are still in demand? I can't think of one...
    Batman would have fit this description if it weren't redone this year.


  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,821
    @sidersdd,

    can't understand why on ebay/amazon etc, people think they can ask big money for the first wave of batman sets, when many of the relaunched sets are very similar. Certainly I now have no desire for any of the old sets. Surely that is telling?

    rich
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Because some people are still buying them for that much. Since the release of the second wave, with the exception of the Catwoman chase which has significantly dropped, I have sold three, 7781, 7782, & 7783, all for right around if not at what they were selling for prior to the release of the second wave. 7784 also seems to have dropped in value quite a bit, not really sure why.
  • littletokilittletoki Member Posts: 517
    This thread (while awesome) makes me want to buy buy buy. :)

    Is it just me?
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    unfortunately not :|
  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    I have quite a few POP Cars and toy story sets bought at 50% off. I feel that as todays kids get older they will want the toys of their childhood anything pixar is a prime example a great brand. Just imho
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2012
    I have quite a few POP Cars and toy story sets bought at 50% off. I feel that as todays kids get older they will want the toys of their childhood anything pixar is a prime example a great brand. Just imho
    @thecleator - While I am not a big fan of TS Lego (loved the movies though) or HP (never got into the movies), both where huge and had a large following of adults and children alike (esp. HP). Like you say, ANY of these kids that become AFOLs will HAVE to have everything HP. I'm probably less concerned about holding HP sets than anything else I have.

    @cloaked7 - I think HF has kind of taken over Bionicles. My kids are fans of both and have sets from both, but only get what they can afford (which is now HF). Bionicles may become more of a niche (if it isn't already). PoP may be sort of a niche too, but PoP can also be broken up and sold as pieces as some of its pieces are more original to its theme (camels?).

    I am one of those oddballs that would like to get the first wave of BM sets (if I could afford them). Marvel and DC were around when I was a kid (unlike HP and TS), and my kids are the next generation to get into those. Furthermore, they are licensed so Lego can't do anything it wants without permission from Marvel or DC (hence, it probably won't run forever....I know, but SW is special). I plan to grab at least 2 of every set they release in the Super Hero theme (including the crappy glued magnets if they make them).

    Other sets that you can't go wrong with in the secondary market are technics, trains and ships (PotC or otherwise). Technics are often overlooked, but you would be surprised. I purchased 6 Technic Go-Karts (8256) on a whim for $7.50 each near their EOL date, and they now go for over $90 each on Amazon. About a year after the Technic Combine was EOL'd, I saw a "make and offer" on eBay. I purchased one (should have got both the guy was selling) for $75 with free shipping. I was going to build it, but they now command over $350 sealed on eBay. Perfect example of a set that's slow to take off. Trains like the EN and ships like the IF are classics and will always trend up regardless of how many purchased to sell on the aftermarket. I think those that purchased Maersk Container Ships (unfortunately I didn't but have learned my lesson) will do very well.

    Okay, sorry for the blathering...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, @Farmer_John, I tend to agree. One thing about the Maersk ship. It EOL'd quickly, I thought. That definitely helps. So, I guess I need to get some more Maersk trains! :-) Will they EOL quickly too? And, will they be available on [email protected] at a discount before they do? Who knows?

    Yup, Technics... I have several of the Technic Excavators 8043 and even 3 of the Front End Loaders 8265 (which I got from TRU B2G1F). Wanted to get more, but the FEL's EOL'd quickly too. (yeah, let's abbreviate some more words! ROTFL) Oh well, a quick EOL that seems to be pushing up their price. I think I will hold them until Christmas, maybe longer. It is a very nice set so who knows where it will top out. Everybody like construction sets!

    Well, except for girls. That's where the likes of Apple Tree House, etc. kick in. I think the houses are classics and solid performers. Just wish the Hill Top House (or, whatever it is called) was not a TRU exclusive. If not, I would have a lot more of them than I do.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @cloaked7 - I have some various houses, but hadn't really thought about them until you brought them up. In fact, I'm not sure which houses I have, which tells you I'm probably in over my head. I think I remember getting 4954, 4956, and 4996 before they EOL'd. No idea how they are doing though. I may also have an Apple Tree House somewhere, but not sure on that one.

    I think the Maersk train will be around at least another year. It's relatively new. I like trains so I got a couple. I will definitely pick up more if I can get a price break. I just picked up a passenger train (probably my least favorite), a yellow cargo train, a red cargo train, and a Hogwarts Express. I probably have 8 TS trains that I got for $50 or less. Those are more of a gamble, but I should be able to at least get my money back out of them in 6 months.

    If I could get a dozen Unimogs at 25% off, I would snap them up. I think they are a no-brainer. Also, the Technic Motorized Excavator will do well when it is gone. I love the 8265 set. I was able to get 2 from [email protected]H when Lego inadvertently had them for 60% off in the first 20 minutes of the 2010 BF sale. I am very tempted to build one of those...very tempted indeed.

    Finally, I remembered I purchased a remote control lego car set (8183) from TRU when they had it on sale for about $30. Dang...that one's gone up substantially.

    On a different note concerning EOL'd sets, one of the best kept secrets for freshly EOL'd sets used to be a site called Kids Scandinavian Shop:

    http://www.kids-scandinavian-shop.com/lego-toys-c-18.html

    They package very well, have very fast free shipping and their prices were very reasonable. In fact, that is where I purchased the Technic Go-Karts for $7.50 and countless IJ Ambush in Cairo sets for about $8.50...all with free shipping and excellent service.

    Unfortunately, they started limiting the number of sale sets a person could purchase. Then they raised their prices above RRP. They still have decent deals from time to time on EOL'd sets, but it's obvious they recognized they were leaving money on the table.

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    @LegoFanTexas - I don't think there's any real cause for concern at the rate MMV is going... It's going only slightly faster than I predicted it would and it makes sense given the time of year for several reasons.

    I feel like the back third of the year is when most 'resellers' pick up their stock on LEGO and most resellers don't specifically follow LEGO and either don't know or don't care to look for sets EOL'ing in the front half of the year.

    With that in mind, I think the MMV is going right now thanks to a healthy mix of informed resellers and people who want the set just because $89.96 is a really great price, all things considered. If it stays gone... all the better.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    Keep in mind guys that although a couple of sets seemed to have truly retired lately (IF, etc.), LEGO still seems to be going through a shift in retirement patterns. It's not longer "2 years and gone - bet the farm on it". MMV could be available through 2015 for all we know. If it still sells at a solid rate, they have no good reason to cease sales. Fire Brigade? Who says they can't have four, or even five modulars available at the same time?

    I don't necessarily think this will be the case, but I do feel that it's an odd time to be a speculator. Be careful out there. Luckily LEGO almost never falls below retail, so you can count on being able to dump excess stock pretty much whenever. But I know at lot of you have heavy money and space invested into some of these sets.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,909
    ^ Agreed. One set in my mind is the 7239 Fire Truck, it was released in 2005 and it is now 2012. 6 years, and still on the shelves at TRU, Walmart... etc. Why has LEGO decided to keep this set on the shelves for so long?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    But I know at lot of you have heavy money and space invested into some of these sets.
    Even though I 'invest' to a point, I actually agree with this wholeheartedly. I TRY not to buy sets I intend to resell until just before it seems likely they'll retire and I stick strictly to ten or less. Additionally, I usually sell them off in the first 3-6 months after retirement. I know there's more money to be made holding onto them longer, but it seems to appreciate fastest immediately after retirement. Plus, this just keeps my home from becoming overrun by LEGO (more than it already is, of course).
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