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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pate5346Pate5346 Member Posts: 889
    edited November 2016
    ^in Europe these set retire before or after Christmas pending on stock and stay this way till next year. 
    While in US they're available a year round ( pending stock ) 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    The BF sale should be interesting this year.
    madforLEGO
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    Ahh, so only temporarily retired....so no way of knowing yet if this is the last year for santa's workshop.

  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    Apparently, there will be another run of JW sets.  I'm working on verifying the details.

    (Struck me as odd, given their shelf-life and the sheer number of sets coming in 2017 for other licensed and non-licensed sets.  Lego Batman Movie, SuperHero Girls, etc.)

    Scooby-Doo and Angry Birds are goners for sure.  
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    I've been trying to wait out a good price on the two larger JW sets, but they have been sitting at $109 and $59 for months.....might be getting too late.
  • bandit778bandit778 Member Posts: 2,383
    Really trying not to cynical, but wasn't it about this time last year when the 'shortage of Lego' story broke?

    I'm not saying they are not retiring (although some of the newer sets on the list do seem a bit stange),  but a nice wad of panic buying at retail price before the Black Friday sales and Christmas does seem to be something TLG is good at.

    Although saying that, I suppose that with an ever increasing product line there will be a greater percentage of retirees when it does happen and there does seem to be a hell of a lot of new lines coming out next year.
    madforLEGOpharmjodcatwrangler
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,794
    bandit778 said:
    Really trying not to cynical, but wasn't it about this time last year when the 'shortage of Lego' story broke?

    I'm not saying they are not retiring (although some of the newer sets on the list do seem a bit stange),  but a nice wad of panic buying at retail price before the Black Friday sales and Christmas does seem to be something TLG is good at.

    Although saying that, I suppose that with an ever increasing product line there will be a greater percentage of retirees when it does happen and there does seem to be a hell of a lot of new lines coming out next year.
    Yeah, I think  'retiring soon' is subjective. My guess is part of it is due to folks complaining that sets just up and vanish, but then again, sets still up and vanish from LEGO without such as tag. Some think it is a ploy to sell sets that are not moving, which is possible. Jokerland being with that tag is interesting to say the least, but Jokerland always seemed to me to be a bit over priced (and ..yes I know that 'over priced' is subjective to blah blah blah, it still seemed high to me). Expecting to see that set on sale for about 80 USD again (I think that is what yoyo had it for a while ago) around BF/Cyber Monday
    catwrangler
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,169
    Ecto  going before the Ghostbusters HQ? Makes no sense at all - who wants to pair that with the Ecto set from the new film?

    I must get a wriggle on and buy Scooby doo plane adventures to complete the set.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    Hatchibles are the prime toy this year that will be in short supply.

    There'll be plenty of Lego - just maybe not the Minecraft or Disney Princess set you should have bought three weeks ago...
    pharmjod
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks Member Posts: 1,367
    @SumoLego Had not even heard of Hatchimals until yesterday...now they have been mentioned nonstop by my daughter.

    Not. Happening.
    preveresnowhitie
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Lego...."retiring soon", "hard to find".....they're just a marketing machine, lol. 

    BTW, did anyone notice in their last holiday catalog, the one with the fold out page that has the "my lego wish list" to fill out...lego starts you off with a $7.99 set on the wish list, but there isn't anything close to a $7.99 set in the catalog.  Then again, now I know why it is a wish list :)
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    One of the concerns here seems to be down to the "large number" of sets being retired.

    Around 500 sets are retired each year. The only difference is that, in the past, either they haven't declared them in advance, or if they have, nobody has collated that information.
    Aanchir
  • catwranglercatwrangler Member Posts: 1,894
    Thanks for the heads-up on Nexo Knights, @stlux. I'm not a completist but it's good to have the warning about the Rumble Blade, as that's a really nice-looking set that I still haven't picked up...
    stlux
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    edited November 2016
    ^^^ @BuriedinBricks

    It's too late, anyway.  They are all gone through retail channels unless you want to wait in a line or stalk toy store managers.
  • stluxstlux Member Posts: 2,450
    TigerMoth said:
    One of the concerns here seems to be down to the "large number" of sets being retired.

    Around 500 sets are retired each year. The only difference is that, in the past, either they haven't declared them in advance, or if they have, nobody has collated that information.
    Agreed - there's already 300+ new sets in the Brickset database for 2017, so a similar number needs to leave.

    Whatever the reason for this new strategy of TGL to be more transparent about retiring sets (even though there's still sets that leave us without notice), I personally don't mind. There's still a handful of these sets that I want, and this way I still have a chance to get them. Which might be exactly their strategy... A last production run and make sure they get sold quickly?
    William_Townsleycatwrangler
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    stlux said:

    Agreed - there's already 300+ new sets in the Brickset database for 2017, so a similar number needs to leave.
    Currently we're looking at around new 600 sets per year. If you're interested in previous years:

    https://modeanalytics.com/modeanalytics/reports/89e835d20ab4/embed
    Whatever the reason for this new strategy of TGL to be more transparent about retiring sets (even though there's still sets that leave us without notice), I personally don't mind.
    Strategy? Pah! They've probably just managed to make one of the bits of the website work!

    Incidentally, I don't know whether it's been noted but Mixels 9 are now "retiring soon".
    stluxpharmjodMatthew
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,794
    edited November 2016

    monkeyhanger said:
    Ecto  going before the Ghostbusters HQ? Makes no sense at all - who wants to pair that with the Ecto set from the new film?

    I must get a wriggle on and buy Scooby doo plane adventures to complete the set.
    So, I know folks said Ecto-1 was on a retiring soon list, but now Ecto -1 is 'sold out' on [email protected] US. Not sure if that is temporary due to reseller panic, and more will be back or if it is gone for good.

    I really want the GB HQ, but I just cannot afford to get it right now..
    Maybe, maybe I will go crazy for the double points promo on Nov 19th and 20th and get one.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    There is another Ecto-1 out, just not the one people want. Having two Ecto-1s out together to begin with was ludicrous.
    madforLEGOjuggles7
  • brumeybrumey Member Posts: 1,002
    i still have all of last years bionicle wave...was heavy into bionicle when i came out of dark age! 
    dont want to build them anymore! wondering when is a good time to get rid of them... they could be had -30% for quite a while now. and thats also the price i want get when selling them...   i might just put them onto bricklink into one lot. i either want to sell all at once or nothing! so that the skull collection doesnt get torn apart!
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,779
    brumey said:
    i still have all of last years bionicle wave...was heavy into bionicle when i came out of dark age! 
    dont want to build them anymore! wondering when is a good time to get rid of them... they could be had -30% for quite a while now. and thats also the price i want get when selling them...   i might just put them onto bricklink into one lot. i either want to sell all at once or nothing! so that the skull collection doesnt get torn apart!
    I'll buy them all for that price. PM inbound!
  • FireheartFireheart Member Posts: 631
    21305 Maze is now Sold Out on [email protected] UK site after being put up as a retiring set...

    7 months and gone..
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,638
    ^Not terribly surprising for an Ideas set. Seems like only the ones with a license last very long.
  • SeanTheCollectorSeanTheCollector Member Posts: 765
    Fireheart said:
    21305 Maze is now Sold Out on [email protected] UK site after being put up as a retiring set...

    7 months and gone..
    Wow, the sales must have been dire! Thankfully, I picked up one when I last visited store. :)
  • catwranglercatwrangler Member Posts: 1,894
    I wonder if, by its nature, it suited a very specific mentality and put other people off. E.g. there's enough Technic involved that it may have deterred people who are unfamiliar with Technic or just not fond of it. It's also a set that seems less made to be finished and displayed than to be endlessly tinkered with - a gift for someone who enjoys that kind of open-endedness (maybe some of the people who were very into the board games line?), but not for those who are only into building by the instructions and don't have the customisation bug. 

    If I'm right, I'd love to know how far TLG anticipated that response to it, but I'm guessing that these things are not given to the realms of mortals to know...
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,469
    I doubt that it's to do with it selling poorly, just that it's an unlicensed Ideas set that didn't have the initial rush that the Exo suit had so only the initial production run was done.
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,469
    Just re read that and realised it's not massively clear;

    I think with Ideas sets, unless there is a licensing agreement that says otherwise, LEGO put a single production order in place for x amount of units (probably with some margins built in depending on speed a project reached review and what countries the votes came from etc) and will only alter that if sales of the set are high.

    Disappearing after 7months and having been listed as retiring soon says to me not that it was a terrible seller (or it would have stayed at retiring soon for several more months) but it didn't have high enough initial sales that the production amounts were increased. 


    Also - in the U.K. I think it was only available from LEGO, so the retiring soon label would have more of a quick clearing effect than sets available everywhere
    catwrangler
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck Member Posts: 1,583
    Shib said:
    Just re read that and realised it's not massively clear;

    I think with Ideas sets, unless there is a licensing agreement that says otherwise, LEGO put a single production order in place for x amount of units (probably with some margins built in depending on speed a project reached review and what countries the votes came from etc) and will only alter that if sales of the set are high.

    Disappearing after 7months and having been listed as retiring soon says to me not that it was a terrible seller (or it would have stayed at retiring soon for several more months) but it didn't have high enough initial sales that the production amounts were increased. 


    Also - in the U.K. I think it was only available from LEGO, so the retiring soon label would have more of a quick clearing effect than sets available everywhere
    It was / is available in TRU in the UK as well.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Member Posts: 653
    SumoLego said:
    Hatchibles are the prime toy this year that will be in short supply.

    There'll be plenty of Lego - just maybe not the Minecraft or Disney Princess set you should have bought three weeks ago...
    I think you mean Hatchimals, right Sumo?  My daughter and son would both love one of these, but luckily they are still young enough to where a non-impossible to find alternative will make them just as happy.  I'm still trying to get my hands on one just to see if I can.


    SumoLego
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    On the hot toy note, I almost jumped on the NES Classic Mini bandwagon, but I was busy with real life stuff the day of release. I do plan to get one, once supply meets up with demand.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    ^^ Yes, the self-birthing animals in an egg toy.
    SprinkleOttermonstblitz
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    prevere said:
    On the hot toy note, I almost jumped on the NES Classic Mini bandwagon, but I was busy with real life stuff the day of release. I do plan to get one, once supply meets up with demand.
    I can't believe what people are hawking them for on Ebay now!  Just wait a while and get at retail - anyone remember the Exo-Suit? ; )
    madforLEGO
  • stluxstlux Member Posts: 2,450
    If anybody is still desperate to get their hands on a #21305 Maze now that it is listed as Sold Out on [email protected] EU: there seemed to be still plenty of stock in both the Stratford and Shepherd's Bush London Lego stores. Same for the JW and SD sets.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    The #21305 Maze just came available again on [email protected] AU for backorder.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I'm going to hold out for the next maze, Star Wars inspired - "Escape from the Death Star" where the ball has the Falcon imprinted on it, with flames at the exit. 
    VorpalRyuSprinkleOttercatwrangler
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    LEGO Ideas is one of my favorite themes.  I really, really like the idea (he he) of using no-LEGO employee ideas.  I have all but set 1, which I'll never have.  Just like I'll never have Market Street.

    Anyway, having stated that... I collect the LEGO Idea sets.
    snowhitie
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    Scooby Doo sets #75902 & #75903 coming up as Retired Product on [email protected] AU, #75900 & #75901 currently as OOS...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,794
    Kind of surprised that the Pet Shop is still in stock in the US after the pre BF event with double points and the snowglobe promo.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Pet Shop has gone plaid. It's done so well for so long and so well stocked by resellers, that remaining stock will just take forever and ever to sell thru.


    madforLEGOCaptainPirateManVorpalRyuBuriedinBricksJackad7josekalel
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^My investment in Pet Shop has gone from suck to blow
    preverepharmjodVorpalRyuSumoLegoexciter1lordzarakmadforLEGOericbjosekalel
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    Had mine a while but buy in was $111, time will tell, but glad I got the cheap. Btw that was when $C was at par with $US so even to sell at Canadian retail almost doubles the money.
    Pitfall69VorpalRyu
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    Looks like Doctor Who and Wall-E are both out of stock at the U.S. [email protected]

    Some year 1 Dimensions packs are gone too. I missed the Bart pack, so I'll have to try and track it down at retail around here. Wonder how those might be for investment, mainly because of the mini-figures.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,794
    I still think the Pet shop does reasonably well compared to other sets that will cease production. Now, I get there is the whole formula of what you paid for a set vs its increase in value (ie a 20 dollar set doubling its price, etc)  However, I still think that Pet shop, like any other mod, will rise steadily regardless (Considering how many Fire Brigades are out there, and its price increase and even viewing the Grand Emporium as an example). While it may not be a CC, GG, or even a FB, I think it should still do well as I'm guessing many people think more highly of it vs as the Grand Emporium ( and it is one of the more versatile mods out there IMO)
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    ^ Ya'll assume it's actually going to retire.  I think there should be an 'evergreen' theme - whereby the sets never retire, they just have endless box redesigns and minor parts updates...
    SprinkleOtterVorpalRyupharmjodsnowhitie
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,169
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Ya'll assume it's actually going to retire.  I think there should be an 'evergreen' theme - whereby the sets never retire, they just have endless box redesigns and minor parts updates...
    You're forgetting something Sumo...the frequent and high % price hikes.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • ecmo47ecmo47 Member Posts: 2,101
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^My investment in Pet Shop has gone from suck to blow
    Reminds me of the simple moniker taught at flight school of how a jet engine works: suck (it in the intake) , squeeze (compress it), bang (apply a spark), blow (it out the back).
    VorpalRyuricecakePitfall69wagnerml2Rainstorm26khmellymelcatwranglerGothamConstructionCo
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Like that old Bart Simpson quote: I didn't think it was physically possible, but this both sucks and blows.

    VorpalRyuricecakecatwranglerGothamConstructionCoLobot
  • brumeybrumey Member Posts: 1,002
    i ll crush the market later this weekend with some antman sets for 30,- 
    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ecmo47 said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^My investment in Pet Shop has gone from suck to blow
    Reminds me of the simple moniker taught at flight school of how a jet engine works: suck (it in the intake) , squeeze (compress it), bang (apply a spark), blow (it out the back).
    I thought the order was Squeeze, blow, suck and bang it out the back ;)
    SumoLegobandit778VorpalRyu
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