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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    For those who are interested in Power Miners, Amazon currently has the Power Miners Magma Mech (8189) for sale at $12.99. They regularly were priced at $19.99. I know that certain parts of this set (Firax) are going for between $5-10 alone. Personally, I liked the PM series...

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002RL7W8I/ref=oh_o00_s00_i03_details
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Yeah it is the Flying Dutchman but I heard this rumor before Black Pearl was released, so weird.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    edited February 2012
    They currently have the PotC BP for sale at Walmart online for $79. Could it be the end? PotC is going this year...
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    Hmm, Endor was part of the last round of clearance last summer, if I remember right. Well, at least here in the midwest. I managed to pick up a couple at $50 each back then at Walmart. Since then I've only seen them at TRU.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Hmm, Endor was part of the last round of clearance last summer, if I remember right. Well, at least here in the midwest. I managed to pick up a couple at $50 each back then at Walmart. Since then I've only seen them at TRU.
    Wallyworld is all about shelf profitability. If an item is on the shelf and isn't profitable, they move along to something else. I'm sure PotC (which was new then) displaced Endor, just as something else will displace PotC (LotR?).
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I remember a couple months ago I saw a battle of endor at walmart. I didn't grab it in the hopes it might be discounted, but it was gone on my next visit.

    I picked up a few hogwarts (4842) and a diagon alley a few days ago. The manager said he was surprised he had both left and he expected them to go really fast now. Anyone that wants to get hogwarts I would recommend buying both Hogwarts castle because they go so well together.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Penny for the managers thoughts . . . All the Lego stores around me are fully stocked with HP stuff.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    I've decided to snag some various HP sets to sell (not to open). I've picked up a couple HP Hogwarts Castles and a ton of Dobby sets. Generally picking up sets that are on sale only. I typically purchase sets I personally like, but in this case I've made an exception. HP sets will all go up in value in less than a year and it's a no-brainer (whether I like them or not).
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2012
    I got a few 2011 SW Advent Calendars before I knew they were going to have a 2012 version, and before it became apparent that they made a ton of them. I was thinking the SW Advent Calendar would be unique and rare and maybe not made for several years and would be in high demand during the 2012 holidays. But, now that they are going to have a 2012 version what do you think it will do to the 2011's price during the 2012 holiday season? Will they be pennies on the dollar, or will it be like all retired SW LEGOS and go up in price? Do you think they will they be collectible?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,250
    ^--- depends on how 'good' the next calendar is. If LEGO learns from their mistakes and makes this next calendar a bit better, with more figs and get rid of those awful mini sets (at least cull them down to only 3-4), then I do not see the older calendars holding much value.
    Then again if they only go for retail and you are one of the people who cleared out a Walmart for sale prices, then you may be ok.. I doubt they go for anything over retail though.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I got a few 2011 SW Advent Calendars before I knew they were going to have a 2012 version, and before it became apparent that they made a ton of them. I was thinking the SW Advent Calendar would be unique and rare and maybe not made for several years and would be in high demand during the 2012 holidays. But, now that they are going to have a 2012 version what do you think it will do to the 2011's price during the 2012 holiday season? Will they be pennies on the dollar, or will it be like all retired SW LEGOS and go up in price? Do you think they will they be collectible?
    They may go up eventually, but around here, stores are sitting on tons of them, even clearanced at 50% off. You probably would have made more money more quickly when they appeared to be scarce back in November.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I will say that I picked up about a hundred SW Advent Calendars for the same reason (at 50% off of course), thinking they would do a LOTR Advent Calendar for next year...

    Now that I've heard they will do SW again for next year, I'm selling mine now because I doubt they will go much above retail...

    So I say sell em and move on... Not every "investment" is going to be a winner, nature of the beast... there is a reason they are 50% off everywhere, Lego made too many of them...
  • MinifigsMeMinifigsMe Member Posts: 2,844
    The SW calendars were sold out in Europe early December ( or even end of nov) they were selling for nearly £50 by Christmas... Just saying!
  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 86
    IF just showed back up at [email protected] with call to check availability. I called first thing Saturday and got the last two. I missed out on the earlier back in stock sale about a week ago. That's what I get for not checking this forum every day. I'm happy now. It is a remarkable set.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Dang!!! I called after reading your post and the guy said they had them. Verified all my information and then he says $800 plus for 3. Uh, for the Imperial Flagship? And he says "Oops, inputted the wrong number. I'm sorry, it says call for availability but looks like we are out of those."

    :(
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    My kids liked the SW Advent; especially the mini-ships. But I agree that it was a weak first SW Advent set and TLG significantly overproduced them. I was unaware that there was going to be a LOTR Advent Calendar. That sounds awesome...

    We really like the Lego Advent Calendars in our house. I just picked up a 2009 Pirates Advent Calendar (6299) on eBay this week. There are/were a lot of Pirates fans over here, so I still don't know why those were never sold in North America.
  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    Any chance 10217 is now EOL? its at 217 on Amazon and unavailable at Lego Shop at Home
  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 258
    It looks like it is sold out with an expected ship date of Feb 12. Seems early for EOL since it has been out for just over one year but i wouldn't be surprised if it sells out by July with the other HP sets.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,250
    edited February 2012
    Please keep in mind there is a difference between 'Sold out' and 'Out of stock'

    Usually Sold out means gone (for the most part), While stuff can come back from 'Sold out' status, most of the time Sold out is EOL, whereas Out of stock means more are coming.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10217 should be around until May-July, I would think...

    Not that I know anything, but it seems like they are not rushing HP out the door, my local stores are both fully stocked with all of the recent sets...
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    all harry potter will be gone by the time lord of the rings is out. Turbo tanks will be gone soon. POTC will be all gone by august as well you may see some black pearls on sale for 50 by that time.

    All kingdoms will be gone besides joust by the summer. This is the time to get kingdom sets since they are on crazy sale everywhere
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited February 2012
    10217 came out last year, but I think it will be gone soon and one of the most sought after HP sets when its gone. It is very playable and detailed, its the biggest HP set and is the only diagon alley set done. The castles are very nice too, but they've been done a couple times already.
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    4842 has been around for a year longer than 10217, shouldnt it be running out before 10217?
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    So there is a possibility that a particular set is retired before the 2 year timer?
    HP just came out last year I remember, but my understanding with this is still on amateur level. Usually I have seen sets retiring in 2 years, like Fantasy Era, City Coast Guard, earlier HP sets, and the likes.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    Potter is confirmed as ending mid-2012, probably before LOTR.
    IMO they're probably running it down already, so its probably just a case of how long the warehouse takes to empty.
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    Ok, good to know, will try to grab a 10271
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    Well with respect to HP prices down to 50% off some places I guess LEGO made too many of these and they are not selling out as expected. SW is still the most best selling theme and those sets do get very hard to find. Same with Kingdoms as Castle was and is still the second best selling theme. But I guess being patient would help for someone like me from the secondary market. Currently I have some offers I am considering as follows (full prices as for shipping I can get someone to hand carry the sets to me from either Dubai or Singapore):

    MVR - USD 70
    GE - USD 190
    FB - USD 180
    DS - USD 450
    Maersk Train - USD 130

    Got 4410 Forest Police Station for 85 USD, two Batcaves for 95 USD each, another BP for 100 USD.

    But getting back to the topic, I feel we will be seeing lots of price drops on 2010-2011 sets this year.


  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Hertfordshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 6,233
    10217 came out last year, but I think it will be gone soon and one of the most sought after HP sets when its gone. It is very playable and detailed, its the biggest HP set and is the only diagon alley set done.
    Not true - LEGO released a much smaller Diagon Alley set in 2001 :

    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4723-1
  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 5,500
    ^ Also 4719 and 4720 feature Diagon Alley shops.
  • rasmustalirasmustali Member Posts: 85
    Does anyone know when 2011 SW collection is planned to be discontinued, especially sets like MF, Super SD, Hoth Echo..., and podracers?
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,798
    edited February 2012
    @rasmustali,

    I would probably say early 2013, having said that something has to give sooner in the summer in terms of shelfspace, so who knows, could be a tad earlier given there is a lot coming...

    Hoth Echo base is an interesting one. I can see some of the minifigs in this commanding a high price once gone, but the original rrp is far too high in my opinion, and the actual rest of the set is a real mixed bag.

    richo
  • thecleatorthecleator Member Posts: 70
    Has anyone noticed how fast some the Cars sets came and went? They must be very undesirable to come an go in like four months
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Has anyone noticed how fast some the Cars sets came and went? They must be very undesirable to come an go in like four months
    I never really liked the Cars sets, but who knows about the secondary market once they're EOL'd. There are new sets that I noticed at WMT this morning; however, they did have the Pit Stop listed for $1 to clear their stock.

    They could be a sleeper...
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    Cars look very cute.....for a kid. The secondary market is mainly driven by AFOLs and I don't see how an adult can play with the cars sets.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    You may be surprised by the after market on Cars. They may not go up like SW sets, but I bet they do increase in price. Like Spongebob sets. Check the price of the SB Emerg Room or Rocketship set. SB is like Cars, it is not sought after by AFOL, but don't under estimate the buying power of a grandparent or parent trying to get a Cars or SB set for their grandchild or child. The kid wants Flo's V8 Cafe, or some such, and the adult knows it will make their Christmas or birthday, so they will pay a premium for it. Certain Indiana Jones sets are like that. Remember those Indy sets? Take a peek on them on eBay. :-) Yes, SW seems to be the more sure bet, but SW is not the only theme that increases in value after retirement.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    @drdavewatford I know about the $10 diagon alley but seeing at how small it was I don't even consider it diagon alley. More specifically, all it is is the inside of one shop with a crumby cardboard background. Same with the other two. My point is 10217 is the only one that people are going to want. I doubt very many people are trying to get a $10 HP set on the aftermarket.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Yeah...Diagon Alley is going to do well, and I think the Hogwarts Castle will too once they are EOL'd. I probably have the only family in the world that isn't into HP, but I also know the HP lego sets will always do well and provide a good return in the aftermarket.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    edited February 2012
    ^ I agree, and in fact I think DA will be by far the most sought after of the Potter line due to its level of design and its uniqueness.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^ Yes, definitely. It is greatly detailed and the design of it is awesome. I've been thinking about this a while now and I'm going to try and grab a few more DA than Hogwarts.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,332
    ^ but they will undoubtly sell well as a pair after EOL, similar to Kings Castle/Joust
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    @Dugout - Look at this: http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=4723-1 , where that set has appreciated something between 200-700% as a sealed set! Somebody sure wants those...

    I agree with Diagon Alley as well, the pieces from this set are better than any other Harry Potter and good minifigures. I have to say the two Hogwarts sets are nearly as great buys, as they have lots of awesome figures that are going to be of great interest to HP collectors.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,908
    What do you guys think about the price of the #7868 Mace Windu's Jedi Starfighter in a few years? I got 2 of these at Walmart for $10 bucks (!) each in September.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I bought a bunch just because they were on sale :P My feeling is sell them when it gets to RRP. There's really nothing special about the set and it was cheap and wildly available. Maybe wait a year . . .
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    10215 Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter - UCS

    not on shop at home anymore in Europe....
  • AvengerDrAvengerDr Member Posts: 453
    I ordered two of those along with the two Imperial Shuttles :)
    What about the Slave I? Has that been discontinued?
  • intromissionintromission Member Posts: 197
    Do folks think Diagon Alley will be around in late June of this year?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^ I don't think Diagon Alley will last as long as the hogwarts castles. I think it will be gone in the next couple months and the castles will stay around a few more months after that. I could be wrong, but IMO waiting till June to get a diagon alley would be very risky.
  • intromissionintromission Member Posts: 197
    Hmmmm. Don't need that kind of pressure when I just swore no LEGO purchasing for a good while. lol.

    Maybe I'll ask tomorrow at the monthly build to see what the store thinks.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @intromission I swore the same thing for February. I made it to the 4th before making a big splash =(
  • intromissionintromission Member Posts: 197
    It's the second wave of Walmart stuff that did me in. I'm trying to cut down on eating. Haha!

    I have to say keeping the recent sets a secret can be tortuous sometimes. In the last few days my son has asked a couple of times if "Hagrid's Hut has gone on sale yet?" (I'm training him well). Little does he know. :)
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