Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,917
    "Everything is retiring soon, except what isn't."
    bandit778catwranglerjosekalel
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^ Depending on your definition of "soon." Yes, it all is. 
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    10244 Fairground Mixer is finally on sale at target.com for $130.99. This is the first ever price drop for this set. Amazon has matched target price. Walmart is OOS at the moment. Set was released June 2014.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    ^I just can't see anyone paying $300 for that Mixer.
    BumblepantsYodaliciousPitfall69FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    vasp said:
    10244 Fairground Mixer is finally on sale at target.com for $130.99. This is the first ever price drop for this set. Amazon has matched target price. Walmart is OOS at the moment. Set was released June 2014.
    Um...No. Amazon had it for $113.48 on September 25th.
    madforLEGOpiratemania7josekalel
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,147
    If I had the money I'd be getting the Mixer at that price. I like the set, but it always seemed a bit disjointed to me to be worth $150. 
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    I didn't want the Mixer at all until the Ferris Wheel came out. Since then i picked one up and waiting on a Carousel or something else to further that theme.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 894
    Haha, can never read too much in here, it's a good comedy read sometimes the arguements that go on.
    juggles7
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 256
    How long do you think the current Death Star will be available? Is it a good investment? 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,792
    How long do you think the current Death Star will be available? Is it a good investment? 
    It is not a good investment for now. Unless you get a really good discount on it. Bear in mind most people can get it at RRP with VIP at any time and a savvy buyer will do even better. So when you sell you need to be cheaper than that, and pay for any selling fees. So you need a really good discount to beat that and make any profit.

    I doubt it is going for a long time. Even if it does last just two years (which I doubt), it still has a long time to go before nearing EOL and it is worth buying for investment.
    madforLEGO
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
     
    How long do you think the current Death Star will be available? Is it a good investment? 
    That may be an irrelevant question considering TLG will likely do a re-release of the re-release (i.e., re-re-release) of the Death Star with updated minifigures. Personally, I'm waiting for the re-release of the Millennium Falcon.
    Lobot
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    Pitfall69 said:
    vasp said:
    10244 Fairground Mixer is finally on sale at target.com for $130.99. This is the first ever price drop for this set. Amazon has matched target price. Walmart is OOS at the moment. Set was released June 2014.
    Um...No. Amazon had it for $113.48 on September 25th.
    IMO that was amazon pricer matching 3rd party. Was short lived


  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    CCC said:

    I doubt it is going for a long time.
    It more-or-less has to.

    It will either sell, in which case they'll produce more and it'll go on and on again, or it won't, in which case it'll take forever for them to get rid of the stock they've got - it's probably the one set they can't sell off cheaply.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited October 2016
    How long do you think the current Death Star will be available? Is it a good investment? 
    The best advice I can give you, your children, your children's children, their aunts and uncles, their kids and pets is to stay away from the Death Star. Buying copies to sell will send a shock wave of lost financial opportunities through your entire family for generations.

    http1bpblogspotcom-s7W3DugAKEkTlqZ8Zr30SIAAAAAAAABfgfCZmukdhMx0s1600deathstarboomjpg

    stluxcatwranglerFarmer_Johnbandit778starwars4everjuggles7AllBrickjosekalel
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 256
    "I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. ... "
    catwranglerstarwars4eversnowhitie
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited October 2016
    vasp said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    vasp said:
    10244 Fairground Mixer is finally on sale at target.com for $130.99. This is the first ever price drop for this set. Amazon has matched target price. Walmart is OOS at the moment. Set was released June 2014.
    Um...No. Amazon had it for $113.48 on September 25th.
    IMO that was amazon pricer matching 3rd party. Was short lived


    Aren't most sales short lived? Usually, if there is a "glitch" in the system, it is rectified fairly quick. Those quick sales, I usually miss and/or they are cancelled. 

    Regardless, I am not going to argue with you ;)
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    "I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. ... "
    Beans for dinner last night, was it?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,792
    ^^ any good sales. 

    Sales in WHSmith last longer if they ever have one.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,143
    I'm so confused.  The last 2-3 pages of this thread ....are on topic?!? 
    LegogramBrickDancerBumblepantsstluxVorpalRyusnowhitiebandit778SumoLegoAllBrick
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Renny said:
    I'm so confused.  The last 2-3 pages of this thread ....are on topic?!? 
    Possibly not, but they serve a higher deity - namely the tradition on this forum that a good percentage of posts on any thread of reasonable length must be off-topic. Like yours.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349

    vasp said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    vasp said:
    10244 Fairground Mixer is finally on sale at target.com for $130.99. This is the first ever price drop for this set. Amazon has matched target price. Walmart is OOS at the moment. Set was released June 2014.
    Um...No. Amazon had it for $113.48 on September 25th.
    IMO that was amazon pricer matching 3rd party. Was short lived


    Amazon had it on sale for about 123 a day or two ago..
    Pitfall69
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,062
    Last post here is from the 25th? Yesterday? What? No news today?? :)
    Mordoor
  • EddieDoesntMindEddieDoesntMind Member Posts: 329
    Since when has this thread been about news? :)
    SprinkleOtter
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    I'm guessing this thread will have increased activity as we get closer to BF and Cyber Monday. Same with the Walmart, and Target threads. I would add a TRU thread, but really how many times do we see anything on a good sale price at TRU (even for BF if last year was an indicator)
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    so..............**crickets**.....What's up everyone?....**crickets**
    AllBrickjuggles7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,917
    No derailments and no retirements make for a boring thread.  Looks like the City Volcano sets are on their way out.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 894
    edited November 2016
    They've only just come out?!

    Or am i missing some sarcasm here lol
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    That's all I need. Volanco sets to go out the way of The Zombies...and immediately triple in value.
    pharmjodBumblepantsmadforLEGO
  • AllBrickAllBrick UKMember Posts: 1,404
    edited November 2016
    @Bumblepants - Don't int-erupt the flow, I would lava like this thread to stay on topic.
    BumblepantsSprinkleOtterPitfall69Farmer_JohnpharmjodcatwranglerVorpalRyusnowhitie
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,195
    I'll be the party-pooper posting something on topic again:

    #75919 Indominus Rex Breakout is now marked as Retired on [email protected] EU. Still available on [email protected] US.

    Now please carry on as usual ;)
    AllBrickprevereSumoLegosnowhitie
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^My TRU has several for $139.99.  How many do you want?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited November 2016
    The Volcano set line is interesting, but really.. I do not think any LEGO line in a color like Lime Green has done terribly well; I think only if they use it in a classic space line and with Lime Green Classic space suits then it probably would.

    I get that not every city theme can be construction or airport, but a volcano theme?
    What I would like to see LEGO go back to is a farm line again as it is overdue IMO.

    I think what is most amazing is seeing 'exclusive' sets being put on discount again at retailers here in the US. Sets like Ewok Village, Sandcrawler, Fairground Mixer, etc. All have had some decent discounts (at least compared to what we had seen). Wonder if retailers are doing this because LEGO gave them a go ahead or if they are doing it because they cannot order any more of these sets, so they cannot really be punished by not getting any more of that set?
    pharmjodBumblepantscatwranglerYodalicious
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 256
    Jurrasic World sets have been out a long time. Dinosaurs are always popular, do you expect these to shoot up in value? I expect the Jurrasic World sets to disappear from stores this holiday season
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    I'd love to pull the trigger on the Sandcrawler at $237.  But I just can't.  Money is too tight and there are other things I "need" more than another Lego set.
    madforLEGODeeC2_JoshLegogramPitfall69piratemania7
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 530
    I'm trying to figure out if #42052 Heavy Lift Helicopter is going to be like the #60064 Arctic Supply Plane or like #60062 Arctic Icebreaker. The former was only stocked once and it was gone. The latter disappeared during 20% off sales (forcing me to scramble find some to pick up). Then it was restocked and lingered FOREVER on the shelves at full price until it finally went away. The #42052 has only been stocked at my local store once and they were down to three on the shelf (and none in the back, I had them check).

    @SumoLego has me nervous. I had to go pick up one #42052. I want to pick up the last two but it might be another #60062 situation.
    SumoLego
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    ^---IMO Technic and city sub themes are apples and oranges.
    The Arctic supply plane was an exclusive in the US and some exclusives in sub themes were/are made in low numbers. I have not yet seen a TECHNIC set do this yet.
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 530
    ^---IMO Technic and city sub themes are apples and oranges.
    The Arctic supply plane was an exclusive in the US and some exclusives in sub themes were/are made in low numbers. I have not yet seen a TECHNIC set do this yet.
    Dang it, I meant #60125 Heavy-Lift Helicopter, my bad.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,062
    mathew said:
    I'd love to pull the trigger on the Sandcrawler at $237.  But I just can't.  Money is too tight and there are other things I "need" more than another Lego set.
    I hear you - I am finding more truth to this each day.  Far removed from the days where I would just buy a set to buy it because I liked it.  I guess a house and family and real life stuff changes that equation...
    CaptainPirateManRennymldj77Mordoor
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 335
    100% true Piratemania7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,917
    eggshen said:
    @SumoLego has me nervous. I had to go pick up one #42052. I want to pick up the last two but it might be another #60062 situation.
    I have little doubt these will be available at TRU in zombie status for the forseeable future.

    My observation is that the discounts at the Retail Store early in their run would indicate to me that they will be replaced early in 2017.

    (Much like when Scooby-Doo and Jurassic World stopped being stocked at the retail store earlier this year.)
    SprinkleOtter
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,062
    Overall I think since I came out of the Dark Ages I have seen a steady decline each year - going on 6 years now - I still pick up the "new" release each year from themes I collect and anything that really catches my eye but thats it.
    Mordoor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    eggshen said:
    ^---IMO Technic and city sub themes are apples and oranges.
    The Arctic supply plane was an exclusive in the US and some exclusives in sub themes were/are made in low numbers. I have not yet seen a TECHNIC set do this yet.
    Dang it, I meant #60125 Heavy-Lift Helicopter, my bad.
    Ahh, OK. Even still, I think the Heavy lift copter would likely be sold out by now if it was a low run exclusive, as I believe the volcano sets have been out for a while now. Just like the one Divers set is supposed to be an exclusive, but he been lingering for some time.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Fast EOL and immediate price spikes on city sets is like capturing a unicorn. Good luck picking those out.
    BumblepantsmadforLEGOstluxLegogramBuriedinBricksPitfall69SumoLegobrumeysnowhitie
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,394
    Watch out @Renny . The Lego mafia has spoken.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,143
    As long as I don't wake up with Lego horse heads in my bed I'm cool :)
    catwranglerjuggles7
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,086
    I'd be OK to wake up with a Lego goat or elephant in my bed!
    catwranglerbluedragon
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,826
    edited November 2016
    Prediction - The Hellicarrier is not long for this world.

    Seems a really risky investment as the price is already so steep but then again the chances of another carrier being released 6 months later priced at $449.99 are relatively low.
    stluxSumoLegoFarmer_JohnSeanTheCollector
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,195
    Agreed that #76042 will not last very long into 2017, as the Helicarrier came out in March 2015. I don't see it being out longer than 2 years.

    Due to the price and volume of the box I'm not sure a lot of hoarding happened; in any case there doesn't seem to be a lot of love for this set on Brickpicker.
    As TLG are not very likely to ever bring out another Helicarrier, let alone at this size, with limited(ish) supply there might be a chance of some nice post-retirement appreciation for this set.
    SumoLegoSprinkleOtterBrickDancer
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