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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,647
    Since revan went out of stock so fast, will it hurt the value of him?
    It will probably dip temporarily while quick flippers try to offload them but long term I expect it will hold around where it is.
    SumoLegoBricklover18BrickDancerPitfall69YodaliciousDontcopythatfloppy
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    edited October 2016
    I'm sure there will be an initial glut of them, and then a slow price recovery.  It'll keep that poly in the Yularen level, rather than the higher pricepoint.
    Since revan went out of stock so fast, will it hurt the value of him?
    It will probably dip temporarily while quick flippers try to offload them but long term I expect it will hold around where it is.
    I think $35.00 is optimistic.
    Bricklover18
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    stevemack said:

    Lol, not really, it depends when you bought your pet shops ;

    True. I stopped stashing modulars after it was clear GE was going to be slow to rise.
    pharmjodPitfall69
  • Scott1Scott1 United StatesMember Posts: 48

    Are The Lego Movie sets retired? I still see plenty of impulse sets and <$30 sets still lingering about wherever I go.  

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    Scott1 said:

    Are The Lego Movie sets retired? I still see plenty of impulse sets and <$30 sets still lingering about wherever I go. 

    The last round of sets were in Q1 of 2015.  They haven't appeared in the catalogue or elsewhere since Q3 of 2015.  And I believe they were just the small sets with the principle character minifigures.
  • PowderfingerPowderfinger SwedenMember Posts: 52
    Bought Ewok Village yesterday with 3xVIP pionts, guy in the Lego Store said it will retire before 2017, just a heads up...
    SumoLego
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,365
    edited October 2016
    Whilst EV is a likely candidate to retire (or at least more likely than some others), Lego Store employees are not exactly the most reliable source for this information. Or a reliable source in any form or shape. This topic has come up regularly on the previous 622 pages in this thread, and I think the consensus is that their predictions are as reliable as those of your cousin's sister-in-law who has heard it from a guy at work who spoke to their little brother who read it on some random blog on the internet? Who might have read it here in this thread.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    stlux said:
    Whilst EV is a likely candidate to retire (or at least more likely than some others), Lego Store employees are not exactly the most reliable source for this information.
    Said employee is probably now utterly convinced they're right - they've just read a confirmation on Brickset.
    SumoLegostluxcatwranglerdougtspharmjodVorpalRyuDontcopythatfloppy
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    TigerMoth said:
    stlux said:
    Whilst EV is a likely candidate to retire (or at least more likely than some others), Lego Store employees are not exactly the most reliable source for this information.
    Said employee is probably now utterly convinced they're right - they've just read a confirmation on Brickset.
    And the internet is never wrong.
    SprinkleOtterpharmjodVorpalRyu
  • HugeYellowBrickHugeYellowBrick At my PCMember Posts: 496
    I seem to remember it was going to retire before 2016.
    SumoLego
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited October 2016
    ^ Yeah, it was, but the EV checked its retirement portfolio and realized it couldn't retire in leisure as it initially planned, so the original retirement plan was put on hold.  :-)
    SprinkleOttercatwranglerPitfall69prevereYodaliciousBillyBricks84SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    stevemack said:

    Lol, not really, it depends when you bought your pet shops ;)

    Yup, Pet Shop was around when they were still giving discounts on Exclusives here in the US. All of mine were bought for around $110-115.
    Farmer_JohnmadforLEGOFollowsClosely
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    Pitfall69 said:
    stevemack said:

    Lol, not really, it depends when you bought your pet shops ;)

    Yup, Pet Shop was around when they were still giving discounts on Exclusives here in the US. All of mine were bought for around $110-115.


    So you've had money tied up for how long with no prospect of appreciation... =)
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    pharmjod said:
    Pitfall69 said:
    stevemack said:

    Lol, not really, it depends when you bought your pet shops ;)

    Yup, Pet Shop was around when they were still giving discounts on Exclusives here in the US. All of mine were bought for around $110-115.


    So you've had money tied up for how long with no prospect of appreciation... =)
    Not really. I have only bought a few and bought less of PS than FB
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    Just jerking your chain =) I have several PS. But I bought more to have multiple brownstones for myself.
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2016
    With the soon to be release of the new PotC movie (#5), I expect there to be another Black Pearl ship released. My hunch is that it will be either be much larger than the original set (on the scale of the Imperial Flagship) or a bit smaller than the original, but at the same $99 price tag. Additionally, I highly doubt any other sets will be released from the previous four movies, but all the newly released sets will be only from the 5th movie (which Disney...through Lego...is trying to promote).

    I would expect a second wave (pardon the pun) of PotC sets to drive up the value of the first wave of PotC sets; especially the Queen Anne's Revenge ship.

    JMO.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,892
    With the soon to be release of the new PotC movie (#5), I expect there to be another Black Pearl ship released. My hunch is that it will be either be much larger than the original set (on the scale of the Imperial Flagship) or a bit smaller than the original, but at the same $99 price tag. Additionally, I highly doubt any other sets will be released from the previous four movies, but all the newly released sets will be only from the 5th movie (which Disney...through Lego...is trying to promote).

    I would expect a second wave (pardon the pun) of PotC sets to drive up the value of the first wave of PotC sets; especially the Queen Anne's Revenge ship.

    JMO.
    There are rumors of a $250 Pirates of the Caribbean D2C set, but people are still debating what ship it will be. I wouldn't be totally surprised if it turned out to be the Flying Dutchman, since that's a big enough and detailed enough ship to make sense at that price point, it ties in with multiple films, and it stands a good chance of appearing in the new movie (since Will Turner is back in this one, and the third movie left him as its captain). A bigger Black Pearl also isn't out of the question.

    I haven't yet heard any rumors of other PotC sets for 2017, but that's not to say there won't be any.
    SumoLegoYodaliciousmadforLEGODontcopythatfloppy
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    So checking the home page, I see we have another Batcave and Arkham Asylum coming. That's 3 Batcaves released in a 5-year period. Technically 5 if you count Juniors and DUPLO. But hey, who's counting?
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 502
    edited October 2016
    I wonder how AA #10937 will do now. And how much the new one will cost... $220??
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    ^ Batcaves, Lighthouses, Fire Stations, Helicopters, Spider-Man, Police Stations and Iron Man, oh my!

    The Lego Civilians like what they like.
    catwranglerdatsunrobbieYodalicious
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I wonder how AA #10937 will do now. And how much the new one will cost... $220??
    Has #10937 really been doing that well in the secondary market anyway? I guess I don't need to feel bad about plans to crack open my copy and expand it now. Just never got around to building it when the set was out. That said, the new one reminds me a lot of #7785. I'm guessing $250 range on this version. The building itself looks like it could easily be ~1200 pieces, and then there's all of those figures and probably some internal features that go with the smaller builds pictured.

    As for the Batcave, I don't see a problem with another dip into that concept. I feel like it's kind of a requirement to have a playset like that for a theme tied directly to a Batman movie that's getting at least six sets. Probably around $120.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Bah, that's what I get from just trying to eyeball piece counts. From the comments on the front page article.
    • Mr Freeze Ice Attack available November 27, 201 pieces, retails for $19, 99 US.
    • Batcave Break-In available November 27, 1, 045 pieces, retails for $99.99 US.
    • Arkham Asylum available Jan 1 as Toys-R-Us exclusive, 1,628 pieces, retails for $149.99 US.
    Those are much more reasonable that I expected.
    stluxLegoboyMooreFXPitfall69dougtsnhyoneYodaliciousDontcopythatfloppy
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 502
    No but with unique figs it could rise. The price of the new one might be the max.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    10937 has not been doing well, same for Batcave 6860. LEGO re-seller overstocking meets LEGO Batman oversaturation.
    Brickarmor
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    edited October 2016
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Batcaves, Lighthouses, Fire Stations, Helicopters, Spider-Man, Police Stations and Iron Man, oh my!

    The Lego Civilians like what they like.
    And Millenium Falcons, Land Speeders, Star Destroyers and AT-ATs....
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,892

    SumoLego said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Batcaves, Lighthouses, Fire Stations, Helicopters, Spider-Man, Police Stations and Iron Man, oh my!

    The Lego Civilians like what they like.
    And Millenium Falcons, Land Speeders, Star Destroyers and AT-ATs....
    Don't forget Quinjets, castles, motorcycles, and dragons! There have been more sets containing dragons in the past five years than in the previous twenty! Although, generally the reaction to our recent glut of LEGO dragons seems to have been fairly positive.
    SumoLegostluxcatwrangler
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I, for one, welcome our new LEGO dragon overlords.
    kizkizTheOriginalSimonBstluxYodaliciousDeeC2_Josh
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    I, for one, welcome our new LEGO dragon overlords.
    If the sound like Benedict Cumberbach, I suppose that wouldn't be so bad.

    Dr. Strange can be my overlord.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Aanchir said:

    There are rumors of a $250 Pirates of the Caribbean D2C set, but people are still debating what ship it will be. I wouldn't be totally surprised if it turned out to be the Flying Dutchman, since that's a big enough and detailed enough ship to make sense at that price point, it ties in with multiple films, and it stands a good chance of appearing in the new movie (since Will Turner is back in this one, and the third movie left him as its captain). A bigger Black Pearl also isn't out of the question.

    I haven't yet heard any rumors of other PotC sets for 2017, but that's not to say there won't be any.
    I would love to see a large scale Flying Dutchman, but doubt one will be released unless it's in the new movie. And if a Flying Dutchman is released, TLG would definitely have to release another Black Pearl since it's almost a character itself in all the movies (sorta like the Millennium Falcon is in Star Wars). That said, I wouldn't have a problem with TLG releasing a larger scale Black Pearl (1.5-2X the size of the first one).

    What I doubt will happen is TLG releasing sets from any non-current PotC movies (1-4). At the end of the first PotC wave, the sets were getting significantly discounted (including the BP and QAR). I doubt TLG will go to this well a second time. My guess is that a total of 4-6 sets will be released, all directly related to the new movie. If the Flying Dutchman makes an appearance in PotC #5 and a FD set is released, then I'll be one of the first in line to purchase it.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,135
    I think we will see a limited number of released sets, as some have stated above I think somewhere from 3 - 5 mayyyybe 6 sets.  I would suspect if we get 6 that at least a couple of them are on the smaller/impulse purchase end of things with a Flying Dutchman really anchoring any POTC theme release.
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 345
    I LOVE how optimist some of these posts are. I know compared to most themes 5 sets is a small release, but 5 is EXACTLY what we got with 2015 pirates (not counting the chess set). So 5 NEW POTC sets would be HUGE imo. Sure I would love 10, but like others have said, that might not be realistic. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,302
    5 or 6 sets is not small, it is about standard for a single year licensed theme.

    Lone ranger - 6 sets (plus polys)
    Angry Birds - 6 sets
    Scooby Doo - 5 sets (plus poly)

    juggles7Farmer_John
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,135
    I actually forgot about polys, thanks @CCC - I think 6 would be about right with 1 or maybe 2 polys.  Again, I think most of the investment would be put toward a Flying Dutchman type set.
    juggles7
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2016
    If TLG and Disney have to choose between the Flying Dutchman and another Black Pearl, it's going to be the Black Pearl. While I would love to have a Flying Dutchman to round out my other pirate ships, it ain't gonna happen.

    As for polys, I hope it's something other than a Jack Sparrow minifig. Anything but a Jack Sparrow! I mean, how many Jack Sparrow minifigs can they release?


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    On a quick search of potc5 (because I'm bored at the airport), it looks like another ship will appear. The rainbow gypsy. It's from the first scene of the first movie when jack comes ashore.
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 345
    prevere said:
    On a quick search of potc5 (because I'm bored at the airport), it looks like another ship will appear. The rainbow gypsy. It's from the first scene of the first movie when jack comes ashore.
    You mean the row boat with the sail?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    I think the Rainbow Gypsy is the actual ship that is being set-dressed into the Black Pearl.
    CaptainPirateMan
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    prevere said:
    On a quick search of potc5 (because I'm bored at the airport), it looks like another ship will appear. The rainbow gypsy. It's from the first scene of the first movie when jack comes ashore.
    You mean the row boat with the sail?
    The boat in that scene is apparently named Jolly Mon, "borrowed without permission" from Anamaria.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,135
    So we could assume that since the Pet Shop was out for so long it was going to hurt the aftermarket value - but with the recent flash deals we have seen over the past 24 hours with this set being marked down to the $115/$120 range what does this mean for the set now?
    Mordoor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    It means if you bought it for $150, you're gonna wait a long time for it to get a respectable profit from it. If you're good with selling and shipping it to make $20, you'll be fine. 
    starwarfan77
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    edited October 2016
    Jurassic World also had only 6 sets (along with 2 polybags and the TRU free build) so I think 6 sets sounds about right for Pirates of the Caribbean 5. 

    Add in a polybag or two for the video game promotion and possibly a TRU build and that sounds about par for the course recently.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I've picked up two PS sets since it was released for an average cost of $123.29. I may be wrong, but it seems like PS was initially released at a price of $134.99 (at least that's what I paid Lego [email protected] for one of my sets). I'm just glad I don't have a stack in the closet.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ it was $149.99 on initial release date.  sounds like the purchase you mentioned was 10% off
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Remember way back when; we all were saying that Fire Brigade was not going to amount to anything? I made a nice profit on all mine because I bought mine for an average of $110-115 and on a few of them I took advantage of an Ebay sale with only $5 Final Value Fees. After shipping and fees I made about $170 on each one. 

    I only bought 1 Pet Shop at RRP, but during Double VIP points. The other Pet Shops I bought were around  $115 a piece. It will take awhile, but I think Pet Shop will make it to the $300-350 range and if you bought them at a discount and use random Ebay fee sales, you will do ok.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^ I agree.  While PS is not as detailed as some of the subsequent models, it is unique as it offers some versatility that others don't, and let's face it, there is always a certain segment of the AFOL population that always MEAN to get around to a purchase, but don't.
    SumoLego
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    edited October 2016
    ^It has been discussed many times that people are always going into and coming out of their "Dark Ages" and those people who are coming out of their "Dark Ages" will want to pick up sets that they missed out on. One thing about Modulars, is that they won't be rehashed, unlike many of the licenced sets. How many X-wings have Lego done now? :)

    Although they rehashed/re released the Winter Toy Shop last year, I think that was an anomaly and that Lego isn't going to do the same with any Modulars. 
    madforLEGO
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    That too, but I'm talking about a section of current AFOLs who simply don't get off their keesters and buy a set until it EOLs because the just never got around to it.  THere will be a segment of the population clamoring for a TB, VW Bus or PS when they finally go the way of the Dodo.

    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • madejp86madejp86 IllinoisMember Posts: 282
    So I got the Holiday 2016 catalog and the petshop is not in there I am assuming it will retire shortly.
    FollowsClosely
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,448
    ^ Is now the time to panic?!?  I think we should panic?
    SprinkleOtterPitfall69Bumblepantspiratemania7madforLEGODontcopythatfloppyVorpalRyuTheMaker37
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