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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • catwranglercatwrangler Northern IrelandMember Posts: 1,892
    Then again, what if part of the draw of the modulars is the limited period of availability? I don't mean to say that a building inherently becomes more attractive for that reason, but I wonder if it plays a part in getting people to pull the trigger. I know that I finally buckled and bought my first (so far only) modular because people here expected it to retire this year and I couldn't bear the thought of not buying a Lego cinema when I had the chance. If I'd had reason to think it would hang around for as long as, say, the UCS Death Star, I might have held off indefinitely...
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I'll take the bet on AoH.  if it is 20% over RRP 2 years post EOL, I'll eat my hat.

    SumoLegoYodaliciousmonstblitzmadforLEGOpharmjodDontcopythatfloppysnowhitie
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    Then again, what if part of the draw of the modulars is the limited period of availability? I don't mean to say that a building inherently becomes more attractive for that reason, but I wonder if it plays a part in getting people to pull the trigger. I know that I finally buckled and bought my first (so far only) modular because people here expected it to retire this year and I couldn't bear the thought of not buying a Lego cinema when I had the chance. If I'd had reason to think it would hang around for as long as, say, the UCS Death Star, I might have held off indefinitely...
    I do not think their availability is limited anymore.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Pitfall69 said:

    I do not think their availability is limited anymore.
    More to the point, I don't think it ever was, beyond the fact that they got retired.

    I think the main attraction was that the level, or impression, of detail exceeds what most people think is possible with LEGO pieces.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    ^This may very well be a facyor, but the Pet Shop is fairly plain by today's standards and it is still going.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,013
    edited September 2016
    wagnerml2 said:
    I'll take the bet on AoH.  if it is 20% over RRP 2 years post EOL, I'll eat my hat.

    That's a lot of feathers... to eat.
    wagnerml2
  • AustinPowersAustinPowers GermanyMember Posts: 278
    edited September 2016
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^This may very well be a facyor, but the Pet Shop is fairly plain by today's standards...

    Funny, that is exactly the reason why I haven't bought it yet. It just looks uninspired to me. Plus, I find it too expensive in comparison to the other available Modulars both in terms of price per part and size/appearance. Actually imho, apart from the debatable Market Street, the Pet Shop is the least appealing of all the Modulars by far. I am really amazed at why TLG is keeping it on the shelves after so many years. I have never seen anyone buy it and I don't know anyone who owns one, even among my friends who usually buy Modulars.

  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,291
    edited September 2016
    AoH has a possibility of being a worthwhile investment in two years time when it may be near the end of its lifespan. Buying any set at full price as soon as it comes out with the intention of stashing it for resell is silly. Why lock your money into something that has no chance of increase for at least two years? Not a good investment by any standard.

    There are dozens of other sets closer to retiring and increasing in price. It also appears the discount restrictions in the US are loosening as the TIE UCS has been on sale a number of times along with other sets that were under the ban. So the smart move would be wait for a sale + wait for closer to retirement. Smarter move, do some homework and figure out which sets would be better to get now.

    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^This may very well be a facyor, but the Pet Shop is fairly plain by today's standards...

    Funny, that is exactly the reason why I haven't bought it yet. It just looks uninspired to me. Plus, I find it too expensive in comparison to the other available Modulars both in terms of price per part and size/appearance. Actually imho, apart from the debatable Market Street, the Pet Shop is the least appealing of all the Modulars by far. I am really amazed at why TLG is keeping it on the shelves after so many years. I have never seen anyone buy it and I don't know anyone who owns one, even among my friends who usually buy Modulars.

    I like the fact that the "Pet Shop" is two separate buildings and I like the Brownstone, apart from that, the actual Pet Shop building is pretty mundane. 
    SumoLegoBumblepantscatwranglerpharmjod
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,013
    ^ It is also a non-corner building - which is helpful for those of us with little creativity and city blocks to fill out between corners.
    SprinkleOtterBumblepantsPitfall69catwranglerjuggles7Dontcopythatfloppysnowhitie
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,291
    Also sand blue is purty
    SumoLegoPitfall69CurvedRoadPlatepharmjodDontcopythatfloppysnowhitie
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 634
    stevemack said:
    100% Agree, anyone new to lego investing will find making money hard in the coming years due to the amount of people giving it a go!  I was informed by a shop assistant that she had a guy buy £3000 of lego as an investment recently! When I said did I miss a deal she said no, it was all full priced haha!
    If you really want a good illustration as to how many people giving it a go there are, and how poorly informed some of them are, I recently was talking to a friend of a friend at a kids birthday party.  My friend told me this guy at the party was buying Lego as an investment so I asked him about it.  He told me he bought several "Assault on Hoth's" as an investment. 


    How do you know he is poorly informed? Everyone derides AoH at the moment but come EOL perhaps he will have the last laugh. The secondary market will be awash with Ewok Villages but not so many Hoths.
    Sure, there's a fluke chance it will become some cult classic like "Plan B From Outer Space."  But the conversation bore out the fact he was poorly informed.  He had no idea it was one of the most hated sets in recent history and was being panned by the Lego Community. 

    If he makes money on the investment, it will be luck, not savvy.  I also know he tried to return several, if not all of them after I told him it was not a big hit. 
    pharmjod
  • nhyonenhyone Member Posts: 145
    The Pet Shop, being two buildings, is easier to build. I think of it as between a city Creator and a full-size Modular.
    Pitfall69
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @Scatterbug  AoH is a random collection of smaller sets that seemingly have already been issued.  A collection of white bricks and vehicles that are simply warmed over remakes of previous smaller, cheaper sets.  EV, on the otherhand, is completely unique.  The venue has never been done before.  It is on a scale that will probably not be done again, at least in the forseeable future.  There may be 4 or 5 Ewok Villages to every 1 Attack on Hoth stashed away post EOL of both sets, but the difference is that people coming into the hobby will actually WANT a copy of EV and will pay a premium for it, while AoH is much,much,much,much,much less desirable.
    monstblitzmadforLEGOstluxpharmjodDontcopythatfloppy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,473
    wagnerml2 said:
    @Scatterbug  AoH is a random collection of smaller sets that seemingly have already been issued.  A collection of white bricks and vehicles that are simply warmed over remakes of previous smaller, cheaper sets.  EV, on the otherhand, is completely unique.  The venue has never been done before.  It is on a scale that will probably not be done again, at least in the forseeable future.  There may be 4 or 5 Ewok Villages to every 1 Attack on Hoth stashed away post EOL of both sets, but the difference is that people coming into the hobby will actually WANT a copy of EV and will pay a premium for it, while AoH is much,much,much,much,much less desirable.
    Also the fact that LEGO will continue to make Hoth sets that are parts of Assault on Hoth for years to come should be considered. That is of course also depends on how long AoH is produced which is another consideration.
    Anyone buying an Assault on Hoth set now, especially without a substantial discount, is crazy IMO. There are far better sets to invest in that are likely going to be gone well before AoH retires.

  • catwranglercatwrangler Northern IrelandMember Posts: 1,892
    TigerMoth said:
    Pitfall69 said:

    I do not think their availability is limited anymore.
    More to the point, I don't think it ever was, beyond the fact that they got retired.

    I think the main attraction was that the level, or impression, of detail exceeds what most people think is possible with LEGO pieces.
    The fact they get retired is exactly what I'm referring to re: availability. A lot of people can't afford to pay after-market prices, so there's an incentive to buy them before they retire. Then, you've got the people who could, but will be reluctant to do so if they can snap a modular up pre-retirement.

    I'd agree with you that the main attraction is the detail, of course. 
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    catwrangler said:

    The fact they get retired is exactly what I'm referring to re: availability. A lot of people can't afford to pay after-market prices, so there's an incentive to buy them before they retire.
    But that's no different from most other sets - they're around for (at least) a couple of years and then there's something else. You have to have been drawn to it first before you start worrying about whether it's going to go away. Assault on Hoth will retire one day. Is that going to influence anyone to buy it (except, perhaps, resellers who are doing it for commercial reasons)?

    The restricted availability of genuinely limited editions probably means people buy them when they might not if they thought about it for longer, but for something like a modular, after a year or so you'll know whether you want it and it's more likely to be the availability of an offer that's likely to be the actual trigger. That's a much bigger incentive!
    catwrangler
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 353
    I agree with Pet Shop feeling a little sub par. I own it, but it's sitting in my closet (saving it for Christmas). I bought it because it was "next" in line to retire. Or so I was told 8 months ago when I bought it. But our of all of the modulars still in the market, it was actually my least favorite. I didn't want to miss out on it though. A lot of people say it's their favorite, so maybe I'll change my mind after I build it.
  • MosdvsMosdvs Dallas, TXMember Posts: 61
    I agree with Pet Shop feeling a little sub par. I own it, but it's sitting in my closet (saving it for Christmas). I bought it because it was "next" in line to retire. Or so I was told 8 months ago when I bought it. But our of all of the modulars still in the market, it was actually my least favorite. I didn't want to miss out on it though. A lot of people say it's their favorite, so maybe I'll change my mind after I build it.
    LOL I did the exact same thing. Kinda wish I got the detective office first... : x
    CaptainPirateMan
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,549
    Mosdvs said:
    I agree with Pet Shop feeling a little sub par. I own it, but it's sitting in my closet (saving it for Christmas). I bought it because it was "next" in line to retire. Or so I was told 8 months ago when I bought it. But our of all of the modulars still in the market, it was actually my least favorite. I didn't want to miss out on it though. A lot of people say it's their favorite, so maybe I'll change my mind after I build it.
    LOL I did the exact same thing. Kinda wish I got the detective office first... : x
    One day, you'll both be glad that you bought it... I've got PS, PC, PR, DO & BB and, while I agree that PS is perhaps a little more basic than the others, it adds some needed variety to the street with the townhouse section, especially. More than a few people have bought 2 PS, so that they could mirror the townhouse for their cities.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    We bought 2 PS and built them both.  I don't have any major issues with the set... the kids built them, had fun doing so, and placed them in their layout, everyone was happy.
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 923
    I agree with Pet Shop feeling a little sub par. I own it, but it's sitting in my closet (saving it for Christmas). I bought it because it was "next" in line to retire. Or so I was told 8 months ago when I bought it. But our of all of the modulars still in the market, it was actually my least favorite. I didn't want to miss out on it though. A lot of people say it's their favorite, so maybe I'll change my mind after I build it.
    I think Pet Shop is quite decent, to the extend I bought 4 sets of it. I've opened 2 sets and build one of the buildings in mirror mode. Another plus is that they can be quite stackable if you want a taller building.





    With multiple sets, it can even be built into a nice looking Pet Shop street with tall stackings, mirror mode, and reverse front/back etc.
    catwranglerMooreFXstluxfloridabrickjuggles7DontcopythatfloppysnowhitieZonLEGOFan2
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 353
    I like the two brownstone building next to each other, that looks nice. But the 2nd picture looks a little over the top imo.
    legomentalDoctorMcGann
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,549
    ^Me too... Two roofs, stacked one on top of the other? Ahem... ;-)

    I think that @Recce is just making a point though. :-)
    CaptainPirateManSumoLegopharmjod
  • bok2bok2 Member Posts: 53
    "I am really amazed at why TLG is keeping it on the shelves after so many years."
    Why? Let me think...
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 923
    ^Me too... Two roofs, stacked one on top of the other? Ahem... ;-)

    I think that @Recce is just making a point though. :-)
    Haha, just a illustration indeed, though it's not impossible to have the upper levels look like that, probably just need to mod a bit. :) 
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 923
    I like the two brownstone building next to each other, that looks nice. But the 2nd picture looks a little over the top imo.
    I was trying to see how high it can stack up :) 
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 923
    Here's a pic of it without double tops, just for you :)


    LegogramstluxYodaliciousDontcopythatfloppysnowhitieLEGOFan2
  • CaptainPirateManCaptainPirateMan MichiganMember Posts: 353
    That does look better, but I still like the 2 brownstone together even better
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 923
    That does look better, but I still like the 2 brownstone together even better
    After the stacking exercise, the original model's height seem kinda short in comparison.


    dougtscatwranglerlegomentalJudgeChuckstluxMooreFXFarmer_JohnprevereDontcopythatfloppy
  • nhyonenhyone Member Posts: 145
    The Pet Shop is pretty versatile. Not to mention the sand blue bricks can be used for Blue Grocer. ;-)
    wardm
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,549
    The only problem with stacking the PS in the way you did is that the side buildings just don't look right with the roofs righto on top of the ground floor.
  • the1whitetigerthe1whitetiger in a pile of LegoMember Posts: 20
    Just wanted to tell you, that in Germany Doctor Who is marked as retiring soon... Don't even know if this is news to you, but I didn't know.
    Bumblepants
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    edited September 2016
    I have to say I am a big fan of petshop.  It's the only modular currently available (ever available?) that actually gives the people in my town somewhere to live with a proper front door!  I only have two, but I would love a street of 3 or 4 terraced houses.  Yeah, it might not be the nicest to look at, but actually most buildings aren't - I don't walk to work every day being amazed by the houses I walk past.

    Edit:  Better start stocking up on Dr Who.  If it's gone before Christmas it'll do OK on a quick flip!  (That should get the conversation rolling, it's been a bit quiet in here for a while)
    Aanchircatwrangler
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,446
    edited September 2016
    #21304 Doctor Who seems to be labelled "Retiring Soon" on all EU [email protected] sites and AUS. Still "New" on the US one. Yay, back on topic! (briefly?)
    CurvedRoadPlatemadforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,473
    stlux said:
    #21304 Doctor Who seems to be labelled "Retiring Soon" on all EU [email protected] sites and AUS. Still "New" on the US one. Yay, back on topic! (briefly?)
    So it will only take another year to be 'sold out'?
    SprinkleOtterstlux
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Probably.... Generally only put retiring soon on poor performing sets in EU
  • stluxstlux LuxembourgMember Posts: 2,446
    edited September 2016
    Potentially another post on topic: #75087 Anakin’s Custom Jedi Starfighter has gone to "Call to check product availability" status on [email protected] EU. The friendly person when calling [email protected] still had some, so added that to my order.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Just a heads up, but it looks like the Darth Revan polybag is now unavailable through [email protected]
    Pitfall69
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    Was Darth Revan even available this morning?

    I noticed on the U.S. [email protected] all the Rogue One sets are still listed as 'Coming Soon' as well, and I'm fairly certain they were supposed to become available today.

    I was going to make a purchase to get Darth Revan, but if he's gone my incentive to make the purchase goes out the window.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Revan was available last night, but rogue one sets weren't. This morning it's the opposite. 

    Lost sales opportunity
    Pitfall69SumoLego
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    Ah, the Rogue One sets are indeed now available. As of an hour or so ago they were not.

    Lost sales opportunity indeed though. Maybe I'll give my local Lego Store a call and see if they have any for this.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,291
    They can hang new curtains and paint the house but [email protected] should've repaired the crumbling foundation first. Has there ever been a promo or event that hasn't been a complete mess on their site?
    SumoLego
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    They can hang new curtains and paint the house but [email protected] should've repaired the crumbling foundation first. Has there ever been a promo or event that hasn't been a complete mess on their site?
    not that I can recall
    SumoLegoBumblepantsFarmer_John
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    At first, I couldn't even add anything to my wish list, then I couldn't add anything to my bag. Each one of my purchases said "Oops, there was an error. Contact customer service."
    LEGOFan2
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,013
    Pitfall69 said:
    At first, I couldn't even add anything to my wish list, then I couldn't add anything to my bag. Each one of my purchases said "Oops, there was an error. Contact customer service."
    If they are going to run events or promos like this, they ought to extend the phone customer service hours to address potential site problems.
    monstblitzstlux
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,473
    dougts said:
    Revan was available last night, but rogue one sets weren't. This morning it's the opposite. 

    Lost sales opportunity
    Was it? Or was it a way to move older product quickly before new stuff arrived for sale?
    In any case the people that will likely have 20 Revans in their Amazon or BL site later this week probably bought a lot of key chains last night.
    Pitfall69Rainstorm26prevereBuriedinBricksYodalicious
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I love that Pet Shop on [email protected] says hard to find. I know all the modulars say this, but it's so silly. It should come with it's own slogn: LEGO Pet Shop "Frustrating Resellers since May 2011".
    ryjayBrickarmor
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934

    Lol, not really, it depends when you bought your pet shops ;)

    madforLEGOPitfall69
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 721
    Since revan went out of stock so fast, will it hurt the value of him?
    LEGOFan2
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