Speculation on the upcoming Death Star

monstblitz · August 2016

So, is this rehash where Lego Star Wars officially jumps the shark? Or was it Insult on Hoth?

There must be a method to the madness at Lego. But I just don't get it. I've seen sellers trying to sell the original on CL for $475 for months now and they aren't moving. How is Lego expecting to sell a slightly modified rehash for more and turn a profit? I had no interest in pulling the trigger at $400 and much less at $500. I know AFOLS aren't the only market here, but I can't imagine parents paying $500 to get this for a child either.

Forget about any disappointment on my part, because I really didn't have much about this set. I'm just struggling to understand the reasoning behind it. How does this work for Lego? Are they just tip toeing the line to find that perfect level of laziness in creativity they can hit and how high a price point they can set before profit starts to suffer?

SumoLego · August 2016

Playsets are differentiated from display models. I don't think it's a value judgment.

Basta · August 2016

Pricing will be interesting for Australia, the original one was expensive at $699.99AUD the UCS SSD was the same price.

But since the release of those two sets, lots has changed and the most expensive sets since GBHQ, Porsche, Disney Castle & Helicarrier are all $500. So I just can't see how the can ask for more than $699.99.

So I'm going with no price increase in Australia and a very small chance of a reduction (probably unlikely).

playwell · August 2016

75159 pictures have been updated on the database. UK price cant be far away now, last guess £375.

dougts · August 2016

SMC said:

75159 pictures have been updated on the database. UK price cant be far away now, last guess £375.

and its 400

RedMark · August 2016

Ouch that price is higher than I thought i hoped for a max price of £350. I think I will wait for a 20% off deal or use my Merlin Annual pass discount at the Legoland discovery centre shop at some point.

1x1 · August 2016

Do you get a discount with an annual pass on "hard to find" sets at the Discovery centre? You don't at LLW.

brickupdate · August 2016

I'm definitely stocking up on #75159 -- when it retires, it's going to triple in price!

Right? RIGHT?!?!
:)

(*sigh*)

RedMark · August 2016

1x1 said:

Do you get a discount with an annual pass on "hard to find" sets at the Discovery centre? You don't at LLW.

I don't think they apply the hard to find set policy. I will check when I go next. I am sure the Helicarrier showed the reduced price next to the normal price last time I looked.

msanders · September 2016

The UK price is in the region that I (we) expected. The changes, including the minifigures, do not justify spending this sort of money on a single Lego set. I`m saving for the Disney castle and thats the only current large set that I feel I really NEED.

Its interesting that 2709 people on the Brickset listing for the new Death star say they want it. I presume most people clicked the button before seeing images. It will be interesting how that number changes now that the images have been released!

cheshirecat · September 2016

When people will spend £200 on a space slug, £400 on a death star seems like a massive bargain. But spending £400 on a Lego set is completely nuts.

Stvoyager04 · September 2016

Given I got the original for less than £200 there is no way I'll be paying £400 for this one.

Shib · September 2016

I've seen a few comments about people wanting to buy it for the new Han minifigure which I think the crazy. Han is one of the most common main characters in lower priced sets, almost certain the new Han will be available in a cheap set next year.

CCC · September 2016

But he's got a new hairstyle ...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DaOgZwk9rN8

TigerMoth · September 2016

msanders said:

Its interesting that 2709 people on the Brickset listing for the new Death star say they want it.

There's a great deal of difference between saying you want something and being prepared to pay for it at the going rate.

bandit778 · September 2016

And According to the main site 6991 people still apparently want #10188.
Lucky for them it's been re-released then. :-)

ecmo47 · September 2016

cheshirecat said:

When people will spend £200 on a space slug, £400 on a death star seems like a massive bargain. But spending £400 on a Lego set is completely nuts.

Of course this is the same thing we said about 10179 when it came out!

Maybe your last sentence should read "But spending £400 on a REHASHED Lego set is completely nuts."

TigerMoth · September 2016

ecmo47 said:

cheshirecat said:

When people will spend £200 on a space slug, £400 on a death star seems like a massive bargain. But spending £400 on a Lego set is completely nuts.

Of course this is the same thing we said about 10179 when it came out!

Every time it's said, it gets a bit nearer the truth.

Pitfall69 · September 2016

So...what is the VAT on all Lego in the UK? 20%? The £400 for the new DS has all taxes included correct? On the surface it looks like you guys are paying more for for the DS, but in reality I am paying $5 more after I pay the sales tax on this bastard.

TheOriginalSimonB · September 2016

Yup - all toys come in the 20% VAT band and prices quoted online/displayed in shops already include it. No nasty surprises when you get to the checkout.

Paperballpark · September 2016

Value is relative.

For example, would you pay £250,000 for a car? Probably not. There are, however, many people out there who do so, otherwise supercar companies wouldn't exist.

Another example. Do you buy Heinz tomato ketchup, or the supermarket own brand? If the latter, why? Probably because you feel it's better value.

As I've gone through life, moved jobs and got paid more (mostly), I've realised that the more you get paid, the less you notice the smaller amounts. So when you're in your early 20s, renting your first place, wondering how you're going to make £20 last until the end of the week (I've been there), it's very likely that you'll count every penny, buy the supermarket own-brand ketchup, not buy big-ticket items, and manage with what you've got.

When you start to earn a bit more, and you have a bit of money left over at the end of each month, you don't have as much financial pressures, and so you may slightly change your buying habits.

Moving further up, getting a bit better job, becoming better paid, your buying habits will change again. Because you have more income and (probably) more disposable income, the big-ticket items become more affordable, they cost of them makes up a smaller percentage of your wage, and heck, you may even switch to Heinz-branded ketchup (other brands are available), as it's nicer.

The further up you go, the better the job you have, and the better the wage you earn, the less you'll care about spending the extra pennies on stuff which is that bit better. You may still buy supermarket own-brand stuff, but it's less likely.

The point is that the value of an item such as the Death Star set very much depends on where you are on the pay-scale, and probably where you are in life. Those struggling along at college or uni, still in a flat while they start out on the career ladder, will look at it as something unobtainable. Those further on in life, with their own house and car may look at it as a luxury, but not unobtainable if they really want it. Those even further on in life, with a really well-paying job, who change their car every year or two and go on foreign holidays every year, may not think twice about spending £400 on it.

I don't think Lego are aiming this at college kids or people starting out in life. They'll be aiming it at the generation who grew up in the 70s and 80s, who are now in their mid 30s and 40s, with the money to spend on something like this. Some of them won't even care how much it costs.

Look at it another way. I dated a lady about 4 years ago, who was a partner in a management consultancy company. She was very well paid. While we were dating, she went to Dubai with the other partners to watch a Rugby championship. She phoned me while she was there and said that they'd been drinking in the hotel bar for a few hours, and between the four of them had spent a lot.

How much is a lot?

They'd spent over £30,000 on drink. For four of them. In four hours.

But although she knew they'd overdone it, it wasn't much of an issue to her. A bit like if you went down the pub, intending to only spend about £20, and actually spent £80. You'd probably wish afterwards that you hadn't, but it'd not be the end of the world.

That's what I mean by relative value. To her, £20 was small change. To others, it's what they have to get through the week until payday.

How people perceive the value of the Death Star will be entirely dependent on how much disposable income they have. Some will say it's completely unaffordable and a total rip-off. Others won't be at all bothered about the price. Both will be right, because both will be comparing it to their personal circumstances.

Sorry this post has turned out to be quite long, but that's my thoughts on the 'value' discussion.

TL;DR: Don't be so bloody lazy. Go back and read the whole thing!

mountebank · September 2016

Have you still got her number Paperballpark? If so, would you PM it over to me?

Paperballpark · September 2016

mountebank said:

Have you still got her number Paperballpark? If so, would you PM it over to me?

Haha! I did have, but she changed it a couple of years ago (I send 'merry xmas' texts to most people in my contacts list, and hers came back undeliverable one year).

It certainly opens your eyes...

CCC · September 2016

^^ You missed out the bit where kids appear in your life and you have to start nicking the little sachets of ketchup from pubs if you want some tomato-based pleasure, as all your money seems to disappear a lot faster than before.

Paperballpark · September 2016

I haven't got to that bit yet! Might never get to it either, the way I'm going...

TigerMoth · September 2016

Paperballpark said:

How people perceive the value of the Death Star will be entirely dependent on how much disposable income they have.

You've put an inappropriate twist on this - it has nothing to do with income, disposable or otherwise. Your overall financial position may make a difference; but it may not. Some people do see value in relative terms; some also see it in absolute terms.

Furthermore, it depends on personal opinions. If I was offered a set at 10% of RRP, I wouldn't necessarily bite. The "don't know" only comes from not having examined an inventory, but the default situation is that I wouldn't pay anything for a set that has doesn't have much interest.

Paperballpark · September 2016

Ok, maybe I shouldn't have used the word 'entirely', but my point was about perceived value, not about whether you like it or not.

SirKevbags · September 2016

@Paperballpark Did it end something like this?

Paperballpark · September 2016

Hah! Nah, she moved down south for work.

I'm concerned now, that you have photos like that easily to hand, as it were...

datsunrobbie · September 2016

Price per piece in USD for the new Death Star is less than 7 other UCS Star Wars sets, according to Brickset, NOT adjusted for inflation. #10221 Super Star Destroyer was 12.7c per piece, 13.6c adjusted for inflation. #10026 Naboo Starfighter from 2002 was 21.4c per piece, adjusted for inflation that was 28.6c per piece.

CCC · September 2016

^ The Naboo ship was very shiny though and didn't contain loads of small parts for detail (or if you are more cynical for increasing the part count to get a lower price per piece ratio, as that is what many people seem to focus on these days).

Aanchir · September 2016

CCC said:

^ The Naboo ship was very shiny though and didn't contain loads of small parts for detail (or if you are more cynical for increasing the part count to get a lower price per piece ratio, as that is what many people seem to focus on these days).

It'll be interesting, when the set is released, to get a sense of how its price per kilogram compares to other sets. A lot of people do believe that increases in parts count in recent sets mostly amount to the use of smaller parts, so price per kilogram is often a good tool for seeing whether sets with higher piece counts actually include more substance or just smaller parts.

Since the overall size of the new set in terms of its floor plan has not increased, I don't expect it to weigh too much more than the previous incarnation. However, I would expect at least some increase.

mathew · September 2016

datsunrobbie said:

Price per piece in USD for the new Death Star is less than 7 other UCS Star Wars sets, according to Brickset, NOT adjusted for inflation. #10221 Super Star Destroyer was 12.7c per piece, 13.6c adjusted for inflation. #10026 Naboo Starfighter from 2002 was 21.4c per piece, adjusted for inflation that was 28.6c per piece.

At least those sets had some R&D put into them. The new Death Star is nothing but a re-hash. No effort was put into it. Nothing separates it from the old one. Updating the minifigs doesn't count because it should be a given. And then they jack the price up by $100. People are trying to polish this turd to no avail. If anything I hope it flops and Lego has to discount it or at least allow third parties to discount.

binaryeye · September 2016

Paperballpark said:
The further up you go, the better the job you have, and the better the wage you earn, the less you'll care about spending the extra pennies on stuff which is that bit better. You may still buy supermarket own-brand stuff, but it's less likely.

I've had the opposite experience. I had the most disposable income just after getting my first "real" job while living in a small but cheap apartment and driving a used but paid-for car. Though my earnings have increased substantially, it's now that I have a family, a mortgage, and a house and cars to maintain that I buy the generics.

Paperballpark said:
They'd spent over £30,000 on drink. For four of them. In four hours.

How is this even possible? That's over £30 per person per minute.

monkeyhanger · September 2016

^ A bottle of ridiculously old brandy and a pint each?

CCC · September 2016

A couple of important keywords: Dubai. Hotel bar.

They'll have £10K bottles of wine and probably £25K port. For people that do, as they can.

monstblitz · September 2016

Of course value is all relative. But how big is the market that is willing and able to spend $500 on a rehashed set? I guess big enough. Lego ain't dummies. If there's something to complain about here it's that the market exists which will only result in further lack of creativity and rehashed sets.

Aanchir · September 2016

mathew said:

datsunrobbie said:

Price per piece in USD for the new Death Star is less than 7 other UCS Star Wars sets, according to Brickset, NOT adjusted for inflation. #10221 Super Star Destroyer was 12.7c per piece, 13.6c adjusted for inflation. #10026 Naboo Starfighter from 2002 was 21.4c per piece, adjusted for inflation that was 28.6c per piece.

At least those sets had some R&D put into them. The new Death Star is nothing but a re-hash. No effort was put into it. Nothing separates it from the old one. Updating the minifigs doesn't count because it should be a given. And then they jack the price up by $100. People are trying to polish this turd to no avail. If anything I hope it flops and Lego has to discount it or at least allow third parties to discount.

Jacking up the price is just as much of a given as updating the minifigures… again, the old one is an eight-year-old set, and it's original price is equivalent to around $457 in today's money. Is $500 overkill? Maybe, but at most it's 10% higher than what you'd reasonably expect for a re-release of a 2008 set, even if nothing had been added or changed.

mountebank · September 2016

Apart from the price there is an additional difference. For a new set you'd expect a component of the cost to come from its development costs. The development costs of #75159 should be very modest. If they're not, it might be that the management of TLG were looking the wrong way while the R&D staff were spending their time doing essential research in high level Dubai bars.

cheshirecat · September 2016

Development costs as part of a sets value will be miniscule. Other than the parts, logistics the only other significant lump before tax and profit will be general operating costs for TLG, which will swamp any set developments. Development time will be important, costs not at all.

datsunrobbie · September 2016

In the Brickset database there are only 3 sets that are flagged as "wanted" by more people than #10188. If the new one does not sell well at $500, it is easy enough to run promotions to reduce that price.

TigerMoth · September 2016

Paperballpark said:

Ok, maybe I shouldn't have used the word 'entirely', but my point was about perceived value, not about whether you like it or not.

Perceived value is in the eye of the holder, and it doesn't have to have anything to with money. People won't necessarily buy something expensive just because they can easily afford it.

There are plenty of millionaires and billionaires who wouldn't dream of spending £30,000, or anything like it, on a drinking session, and the value of things doesn't decrease as their wealth increases.

madforLEGO · September 2016

monstblitz said:

So, is this rehash where Lego Star Wars officially jumps the shark? Or was it Insult on Hoth?

There must be a method to the madness at Lego. But I just don't get it. I've seen sellers trying to sell the original on CL for $475 for months now and they aren't moving. How is Lego expecting to sell a slightly modified rehash for more and turn a profit? I had no interest in pulling the trigger at $400 and much less at $500. I know AFOLS aren't the only market here, but I can't imagine parents paying $500 to get this for a child either.

Forget about any disappointment on my part, because I really didn't have much about this set. I'm just struggling to understand the reasoning behind it. How does this work for Lego? Are they just tip toeing the line to find that perfect level of laziness in creativity they can hit and how high a price point they can set before profit starts to suffer?

I think Assault on Hoth is the bigger misfire.
As to the DS not selling well post EOL, how many people were not buying it because they heard a new one was coming out (which was a poorly kept secret that popped up almost after the other EOL'd)?
As for the price point. I'm sure many scratched their heads about parents paying 400 USD for the original too, but obviously it occurred.

IMO Assault on Hoth was a set that had a lot of promise and failed in execution, I doubt the same could be said about the new DS. Did the DS let some down? I'm sure for various reasons. But the Idea of this play set sold well enough for the past 8 years, so why wouldn't it sell like this for the next 8? I just do not see that for what amounts to a collection of small sets (already done in smaller sets for sale in the past) working for Assault on Hoth.

LEGO was selling this old DS well (a set does not get produced for 8 years because it sucks); but like every other company out there, they want to make their margin on it, especially when the cost of plastic goes up and the price does not change for years, the figures were old (with a lot of people on this very site lamenting this point), and Disney likely asking for a bit more for licensing. In hindsight, I am not surprised LEGO just redid the DS set updated bits and sold it for more.

As for the 499 USD price? It is a lot to some now, but seeing how inflation and other factors increase the price of LEGO sets, it may be a bargain at that price in 4 years.

And if folks do not buy all of those arguments, Assault on Hoth came out before the new DS, so LEGO 'jumped the shark' with Assault on Hoth. :-)

mathew · September 2016

madforLEGO said:
And if folks do not buy all of those arguments, Assault on Hoth came out before the new DS, so LEGO 'jumped the shark' with Assault on Hoth. :-)

I agree. But Assault on Hoth can be ignored for what it is: A collection of smaller sets bundled together with the UCS logo slapped on it. It was certainly the beginning but I think the DS re-hash is the cherry. These sets in particular represent so many things that are currently wrong with Lego. Hell, they even screwed up Obi-Wan by lazily including the Cantina version of him with the new DS instead of variation with a cape and hood. Crappy box art too.

CCC · September 2016

monstblitz said:

Of course value is all relative. But how big is the market that is willing and able to spend $500 on a rehashed set? I guess big enough. Lego ain't dummies.

Probably not very different to the size of the market willing and able to spend $400 or $350 or $300 on a rehashed set.

dougts · September 2016

datsunrobbie said:

In the Brickset database there are only 3 sets that are flagged as "wanted" by more people than #10188. If the new one does not sell well at $500, it is easy enough to run promotions to reduce that price.

after being available for 8 years, the only people flagging 10188 as "wanted" but not having yet bought it are those that never will - it's a dream list for them, not an actual "I plan to actually buy this". Like the kids circling 27 different toys in the Christmas catalog.

If they couldn't or wouldn't buy it at $400 at any point in time over an 8 year period, they aren't likely to suddenly change their mind when the new one comes out at $500. Promotions aren't going to change that.

SumoLego · September 2016

(This set isn't geared for someone that already owns the previous version of the Death Star. This is squarely for civilian Lego consumers that want a huge playset that most folks won't normally purchase. Reminds me of Hasbro producing the U.S.S. Flag aircraft carrier.)

Stvoyager04 · September 2016

I know it's not the only component but considering that oil prices were way over $100 a barrel in 2008 and are currently less than $50 a barrel now it's hard to see how the price of plastic has risen so much.

Feel free to educate me though. Preferably in a constructive manner :)

dspigel · September 2016

I'm taking the wait and see approach. I might pick it up if there is a really good sale. It might take a few years if the old one stuck around for 8.

dougts · September 2016

Stvoyager04 said:

I know it's not the only component but considering that oil prices were way over $100 a barrel in 2008 and are currently less than $50 a barrel now it's hard to see how the price of plastic has risen so much.

Feel free to educate me though. Preferably in a constructive manner :)

ABS pelletes down 18% over the past 5 years, according to http://plasticker.de/preise/preise_monat_single_en.php

current prices appear to be about a little about 1.21 euros per kg. so a LEGO set like the Death Star contains about 8.5 euros ($9.50) worth of raw ABS pellets. Of course LEGO probably buys ABS much cheaper than list price.

But the plastic in LEGO sets has never been more than a negligible portion of the overall cost/price. Anyone claiming increased raw plastic/oil prices are the reason LEGO set prices keep going up so much is either uninformed or lying.

Speculation on the upcoming Death Star

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