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Speculation on the upcoming Death Star

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  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 634
    edited August 2016
    So, is this rehash where Lego Star Wars officially jumps the shark?  Or was it Insult on Hoth? 

    There must be a method to the madness at Lego.  But I just don't get it.  I've seen sellers trying to sell the original on CL for $475 for months now and they aren't moving.  How is Lego expecting to sell a slightly modified rehash for more and turn a profit?  I had no interest in pulling the trigger at $400 and much less at $500.  I know AFOLS aren't the only market here, but I can't imagine parents paying $500 to get this for a child either. 

    Forget about any disappointment on my part, because I really didn't have much about this set.  I'm just struggling to understand the reasoning behind it.  How does this work for Lego?  Are they just tip toeing the line to find that perfect level of laziness in creativity they can hit and how high a price point they can set before profit starts to suffer? 
    Dontcopythatfloppy
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    Playsets are differentiated from display models.  I don't think it's a value judgment.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Pricing will be interesting for Australia, the original one was expensive at $699.99AUD the UCS SSD was the same price.

    But since the release of those two sets, lots has changed and the most expensive sets since GBHQ, Porsche, Disney Castle & Helicarrier are all $500. So I just can't see how the can ask for more than $699.99.

    So I'm going with no price increase in Australia and a very small chance of a reduction (probably unlikely).
  • playwellplaywell UKMember Posts: 2,232
    edited August 2016
    75159 pictures have been updated on the database. UK price cant be far away now, last guess £375.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    SMC said:
    75159 pictures have been updated on the database. UK price cant be far away now, last guess £375.
    and its 400
  • RedMarkRedMark UKMember Posts: 80
    edited August 2016
    Ouch that price is higher than I thought i hoped for a max price of £350. I think I will wait for a 20% off deal or use my Merlin Annual pass discount at the Legoland discovery centre shop at some point. 
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 143
    Do you get a discount with an annual pass on "hard to find" sets at the Discovery centre?  You don't at LLW.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I'm definitely stocking up on #75159 -- when it retires, it's going to triple in price! 

    Right? RIGHT?!?!
    :)
    (*sigh*)
    bobabricksSumoLegoGoldchainsBumblepantskiki180703
  • RedMarkRedMark UKMember Posts: 80
    edited August 2016
    1x1 said:
    Do you get a discount with an annual pass on "hard to find" sets at the Discovery centre?  You don't at LLW.
    I don't think they apply the hard to find set policy. I will check when I go next. I am sure the Helicarrier showed the reduced price next to the normal price last time I looked.
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 1,017
    The UK price is in the region that I (we) expected. The changes, including the minifigures, do not justify spending this sort of money on a single Lego set. I`m saving for the Disney castle and thats the only current large set that I feel I really NEED. 

    Its interesting that 2709 people on the Brickset listing for the new Death star say they want it. I presume most people clicked the button before seeing images. It will be interesting how that number changes now that the images have been released!
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    When people will spend £200 on a space slug, £400 on a death star seems like a massive bargain. But spending £400 on a Lego set is completely nuts.
  • Stvoyager04Stvoyager04 Member Posts: 120
    Given I got the original for less than £200 there is no way I'll be paying £400 for this one.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,478
    I've seen a few comments about people wanting to buy it for the new Han minifigure which I think the crazy. Han is one of the most common main characters in lower priced sets, almost certain the new Han will be available in a cheap set next year.
    bobabricksgmonkey76kiki180703Dontcopythatfloppy
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    But he's got a new hairstyle ...



    LeonCcatwranglerricecakeLobotgmonkey76kiki180703Dontcopythatfloppy
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    msanders said:
    Its interesting that 2709 people on the Brickset listing for the new Death star say they want it.
    There's a great deal of difference between saying you want something and being prepared to pay for it at the going rate.
    catwranglerdougtsgmonkey76SumoLegokiki180703Dontcopythatfloppy
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,335
    And According to the main site 6991 people still apparently want #10188
    Lucky for them it's been re-released then. :-)
    Dontcopythatfloppy
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    When people will spend £200 on a space slug, £400 on a death star seems like a massive bargain. But spending £400 on a Lego set is completely nuts.
    Of course this is the same thing we said about 10179 when it came out!

    Maybe your last sentence should read "But spending £400 on a REHASHED Lego set is completely nuts."
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    ecmo47 said:
    When people will spend £200 on a space slug, £400 on a death star seems like a massive bargain. But spending £400 on a Lego set is completely nuts.
    Of course this is the same thing we said about 10179 when it came out!
    Every time it's said, it gets a bit nearer the truth.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    edited September 2016
    So...what is the VAT on all Lego in the UK? 20%? The £400 for the new DS has all taxes included correct? On the surface it looks like you guys are paying more for for the DS, but in reality I am paying $5 more after I pay the sales tax on this bastard.
    AanchirBrickDancerkiki180703SprinkleOtter
  • TheOriginalSimonBTheOriginalSimonB Felixstowe Member Posts: 1,708
    Yup - all toys come in the 20% VAT band and prices quoted online/displayed in shops already include it.  No nasty surprises when you get to the checkout.
    Pitfall69Aanchirkiki180703
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark Near ManchesterMember Posts: 4,220
    Have you still got her number Paperballpark? If so, would you PM it over to me?

    Haha! I did have, but she changed it a couple of years ago (I send 'merry xmas' texts to most people in my contacts list, and hers came back undeliverable one year).

    It certainly opens your eyes...
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark Near ManchesterMember Posts: 4,220
    I haven't got to that bit yet! Might never get to it either, the way I'm going...
    A.Brickovsky
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Paperballpark said:

    How people perceive the value of the Death Star will be entirely dependent on how much disposable income they have.
    You've put an inappropriate twist on this - it has nothing to do with income, disposable or otherwise. Your overall financial position may make a difference; but it may not. Some people do see value in relative terms; some also see it in absolute terms.

    Furthermore, it depends on personal opinions. If I was offered a set at 10% of RRP, I wouldn't necessarily bite. The "don't know" only comes from not having examined an inventory, but the default situation is that I wouldn't pay anything for a set that has doesn't have much interest.
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark Near ManchesterMember Posts: 4,220
    Ok, maybe I shouldn't have used the word 'entirely', but my point was about perceived value, not about whether you like it or not.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    @Paperballpark Did it end something like this? 


    eggshenbandit778catwranglerBumblepantsricecakeSumoLegokiki180703bobabricksDontcopythatfloppy
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark Near ManchesterMember Posts: 4,220
    Hah! Nah, she moved down south for work.

    I'm concerned now, that you have photos like that easily to hand, as it were...
    SirKevbagskiki180703
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,760
    Price per piece in USD for the new Death Star is less than 7 other UCS Star Wars sets, according to Brickset, NOT adjusted for inflation. #10221 Super Star Destroyer was 12.7c per piece, 13.6c adjusted for inflation. #10026 Naboo Starfighter from 2002 was 21.4c per piece, adjusted for inflation that was 28.6c per piece. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    ^ The Naboo ship was very shiny though and didn't contain loads of small parts for detail (or if you are more cynical for increasing the part count to get a lower price per piece ratio, as that is what many people seem to focus on these days).
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,979
    CCC said:
    ^ The Naboo ship was very shiny though and didn't contain loads of small parts for detail (or if you are more cynical for increasing the part count to get a lower price per piece ratio, as that is what many people seem to focus on these days).
    It'll be interesting, when the set is released, to get a sense of how its price per kilogram compares to other sets. A lot of people do believe that increases in parts count in recent sets mostly amount to the use of smaller parts, so price per kilogram is often a good tool for seeing whether sets with higher piece counts actually include more substance or just smaller parts.

    Since the overall size of the new set in terms of its floor plan has not increased, I don't expect it to weigh too much more than the previous incarnation. However, I would expect at least some increase.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Price per piece in USD for the new Death Star is less than 7 other UCS Star Wars sets, according to Brickset, NOT adjusted for inflation. #10221 Super Star Destroyer was 12.7c per piece, 13.6c adjusted for inflation. #10026 Naboo Starfighter from 2002 was 21.4c per piece, adjusted for inflation that was 28.6c per piece. 
    At least those sets had some R&D put into them.  The new Death Star is nothing but a re-hash.  No effort was put into it.  Nothing separates it from the old one.  Updating the minifigs doesn't count because it should be a given.  And then they jack the price up by $100.  People are trying to polish this turd to no avail.  If anything I hope it flops and Lego has to discount it or at least allow third parties to discount.  
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,751
    The further up you go, the better the job you have, and the better the wage you earn, the less you'll care about spending the extra pennies on stuff which is that bit better. You may still buy supermarket own-brand stuff, but it's less likely.
    I've had the opposite experience. I had the most disposable income just after getting my first "real" job while living in a small but cheap apartment and driving a used but paid-for car. Though my earnings have increased substantially, it's now that I have a family, a mortgage, and a house and cars to maintain that I buy the generics.
    Paperballpark said:
    They'd spent over £30,000 on drink. For four of them. In four hours.
    How is this even possible? That's over £30 per person per minute.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,152
    ^ A bottle of ridiculously old brandy and a pint each?
    bandit778gmonkey76SumoLegokiki180703
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    A couple of important keywords: Dubai. Hotel bar.

    They'll have £10K bottles of wine and probably £25K port. For people that do, as they can.

    gmonkey76Paperballparkkiki180703sklambpharmjod
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 634
    Of course value is all relative.  But how big is the market that is willing and able to spend $500 on a rehashed set?  I guess big enough.  Lego ain't dummies.  If there's something to complain about here it's that the market exists which will only result in further lack of creativity and rehashed sets.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,979
    mathew said:
    Price per piece in USD for the new Death Star is less than 7 other UCS Star Wars sets, according to Brickset, NOT adjusted for inflation. #10221 Super Star Destroyer was 12.7c per piece, 13.6c adjusted for inflation. #10026 Naboo Starfighter from 2002 was 21.4c per piece, adjusted for inflation that was 28.6c per piece. 
    At least those sets had some R&D put into them.  The new Death Star is nothing but a re-hash.  No effort was put into it.  Nothing separates it from the old one.  Updating the minifigs doesn't count because it should be a given.  And then they jack the price up by $100.  People are trying to polish this turd to no avail.  If anything I hope it flops and Lego has to discount it or at least allow third parties to discount.  
    Jacking up the price is just as much of a given as updating the minifigures… again, the old one is an eight-year-old set, and it's original price is equivalent to around $457 in today's money. Is $500 overkill? Maybe, but at most it's 10% higher than what you'd reasonably expect for a re-release of a 2008 set, even if nothing had been added or changed.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    Apart from the price there is an additional difference. For a new set you'd expect a component of the cost to come from its development costs. The development costs of #75159 should be very modest. If they're not, it might be that the management of TLG were looking the wrong way while the R&D staff were spending their time doing essential research in high level Dubai bars.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    Development costs as part of a sets value will be miniscule. Other than the parts, logistics the only other significant lump before tax and profit will be general operating costs for TLG, which will swamp any set developments. Development time will be important, costs not at all.
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,760
    In the Brickset database there are only 3 sets that are flagged as "wanted" by more people than #10188. If the new one does not sell well at $500, it is easy enough to run promotions to reduce that price. 
    Aanchirkiki180703dspigelcatwrangler
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Ok, maybe I shouldn't have used the word 'entirely', but my point was about perceived value, not about whether you like it or not.
    Perceived value is in the eye of the holder, and it doesn't have to have anything to with money. People won't necessarily buy something expensive just because they can easily afford it.

    There are plenty of millionaires and billionaires who wouldn't dream of spending £30,000, or anything like it, on a drinking session, and the value of things doesn't decrease as their wealth increases.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,478

    So, is this rehash where Lego Star Wars officially jumps the shark?  Or was it Insult on Hoth? 

    There must be a method to the madness at Lego.  But I just don't get it.  I've seen sellers trying to sell the original on CL for $475 for months now and they aren't moving.  How is Lego expecting to sell a slightly modified rehash for more and turn a profit?  I had no interest in pulling the trigger at $400 and much less at $500.  I know AFOLS aren't the only market here, but I can't imagine parents paying $500 to get this for a child either. 

    Forget about any disappointment on my part, because I really didn't have much about this set.  I'm just struggling to understand the reasoning behind it.  How does this work for Lego?  Are they just tip toeing the line to find that perfect level of laziness in creativity they can hit and how high a price point they can set before profit starts to suffer? 
    I think Assault on Hoth is the bigger misfire.
    As to the DS not selling well post EOL, how many people were not buying it because they heard a new one was coming out (which was a poorly kept secret that popped up almost after the other EOL'd)?
    As for the price point. I'm sure many scratched their heads about parents paying 400 USD for the original too, but obviously it occurred.

    IMO Assault on Hoth was a set that had a lot of promise and failed in execution, I doubt the same could be said about the new DS. Did the DS let some down? I'm sure for various reasons. But the Idea of this play set sold well enough for the past 8 years, so why wouldn't it sell like this for the next 8? I just do not see that for what amounts to a collection of small sets (already done in smaller sets for sale in the past) working for Assault on Hoth.

    LEGO was selling this old DS well (a set does not get produced for 8 years because it sucks); but like every other company out there, they want to make their margin on it, especially when the cost of plastic goes up and the price does not change for years, the figures were old (with a lot of people on this very site lamenting this point), and Disney likely asking for a bit more for licensing. In hindsight, I am not surprised LEGO just redid the DS set updated bits and sold it for more.

    As for the 499 USD price? It is a lot to some now, but seeing how inflation and other factors increase the price of LEGO sets, it may be a bargain at that price in 4 years.

    And if folks do not buy all of those arguments, Assault on Hoth came out before the new DS, so LEGO 'jumped the shark' with Assault on Hoth. :-)
    CCCgmonkey76datsunrobbiekiki180703sklambDontcopythatfloppy
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited September 2016
    And if folks do not buy all of those arguments, Assault on Hoth came out before the new DS, so LEGO 'jumped the shark' with Assault on Hoth. :-)
    I agree.  But Assault on Hoth can be ignored for what it is:  A collection of smaller sets bundled together with the UCS logo slapped on it.  It was certainly the beginning but I think the DS re-hash is the cherry.  These sets in particular represent so many things that are currently wrong with Lego.  Hell, they even screwed up Obi-Wan by lazily including the Cantina version of him with the new DS instead of variation with a cape and hood.  Crappy box art too.  
    monkeyhangerkiki180703
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    Of course value is all relative.  But how big is the market that is willing and able to spend $500 on a rehashed set?  I guess big enough.  Lego ain't dummies.  
    Probably not very different to the size of the market willing and able to spend $400 or $350 or $300 on a rehashed set.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    In the Brickset database there are only 3 sets that are flagged as "wanted" by more people than #10188. If the new one does not sell well at $500, it is easy enough to run promotions to reduce that price. 
    after being available for 8 years, the only people flagging 10188 as "wanted" but not having yet bought it are those that never will - it's a dream list for them, not an actual "I plan to actually buy this".  Like the kids circling 27 different toys in the Christmas catalog.

    If they couldn't or wouldn't buy it at $400 at any point in time over an 8 year period, they aren't likely to suddenly change their mind when the new one comes out at $500.  Promotions aren't going to change that.
    gmonkey76CircleKBumblepants
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    (This set isn't geared for someone that already owns the previous version of the Death Star.  This is squarely for civilian Lego consumers that want a huge playset that most folks won't normally purchase.  Reminds me of Hasbro producing the U.S.S. Flag aircraft carrier.)
    sklambkiki180703gmonkey76monkeyhanger
  • Stvoyager04Stvoyager04 Member Posts: 120
    I know it's not the only component but considering that oil prices were way over $100 a barrel in 2008 and are currently less than $50 a barrel now it's hard to see how the price of plastic has risen so much. 

    Feel free to educate me though. Preferably in a constructive manner :)
    SprinkleOtterSumoLego
  • dspigeldspigel Newport NewsMember Posts: 461
    I'm taking the wait and see approach. I might pick it up if there is a really good sale. It might take a few years if the old one stuck around for 8.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited September 2016
    I know it's not the only component but considering that oil prices were way over $100 a barrel in 2008 and are currently less than $50 a barrel now it's hard to see how the price of plastic has risen so much. 

    Feel free to educate me though. Preferably in a constructive manner :)
    ABS pelletes down 18% over the past 5 years, according to http://plasticker.de/preise/preise_monat_single_en.php

    current prices appear to be about a little about 1.21 euros per kg.  so a LEGO set like the Death Star contains about 8.5 euros ($9.50) worth of raw ABS pellets.  Of course LEGO probably buys ABS much cheaper than list price.

    But the plastic in LEGO sets has never been more than a negligible portion of the overall cost/price.  Anyone claiming increased raw plastic/oil prices are the reason LEGO set prices keep going up so much is either uninformed or lying.
    herbyderby
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