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I'm curious as to what older examples there are though.
One of Lego's biggest fumbles was definitely it's clothing/gear line from the 90's - early 2000's. Lego still makes clothing now, but not near the focus they put into it back then that put them in a hole that almost ended the company.
Explore is another one of those initiatives from the early naughts that failed big-time. LEGO was trying to innovate and they did so at the expense of the familiar Duplo brand, which cost them dearly.
I believe all the girl-oriented themes prior to Friends underperformed.
That's all I can think of right at the moment.
On a side note me personally I haven't been happy about the Star Wars sets. There has been a few decent ones but none that I'm like "I must have this!" I just feel like some of them have been weak or just don't carry that wow factor.
Aside from My Own Train, there was no 'normal' trains, and the only new trains released outside MOT were the Santa Fe loco & cars, the BNSF loco and TTX cars, and the Holiday train.
2001 saw the Metroliner legends re-issues, and if you include them, the Hogwarts Express sets; 2004 for the motorised version with track, and 2010 for a version with train wheels but no track.
I hope the next Simpsons set will be 'The Android's Dungeon & Baseball Card Shop' with loads of comic books, superhero references, Radioactive Man and Biclops minifigures!
I'll bring this up again:
-Simpsons Roasting on an Open Fire (December 17, 1989.) "25th anniversary of the first appearance of 742 Evergreen Terrace."
-The Telltale Head (February 25, 1990.) "25th anniversary of the first appearance of the Kwik-E-Mart."
-Three Men and a Comic Book (May 9, 1991.) "25th anniversary of the first appearance of The Android's Dungeon & Baseball Card Shop."
I'm pretty sure that 'Android's Dungeon' was the next product in line for the Simpsons theme with superheroes and pop culture being a big aspect for LEGO's relationship with many well known IP's. It just makes sense such as the 25th anniversary' appearance, maybe I'm looking too much into it given I'm a huge fan of this theme. (Yup, I do own both D2C sets and both CMF series'.)
I'm currently designing an 'Android's Dungeon & Baseball Card Shop' on LEGO Digital Designer in the style of both #71006 - The Simpsons House and #71016 - Kwik-E-Mart. It's piece count comes to around 1,000 and a footprint of 16x24 so it wouldn't be a huge set like the previous two, costing around £99.99. I guess that's one aspect of this hobby that is unique, you can build what ever you like should LEGO not decide to release that specific dream set. The only thing you can't really control is printing (custom printing is an option if your not a purist) or elements in specific colours.
There were several other themes around this same time that I wonder how they sold, simply because we saw so much on discount.
Kinda off-topic but can someone enlighten me on Ninjago's history? I have read that it took a break, or was finished and then Lego later brought it back. Why the break? Was it not selling well then? When did this break happen? After Season 2? Season 3?
Chima had technically been designed as Ninjago's replacement, with expectations that it would perform even better than Ninjago had at its launch, but it did not end up meeting those expectations (despite still getting a respectable three-year run in the end). It's unclear whether it might have performed better had Ninjago been discontinued as planned.
So the plan was to end it with the final battle with the Overlord (2013). And replace Ninjago with Chima.
But then something happened- TLG got a lot of letters, phone calls, etc. from kids and parents. They liked Ninjago, and did not want it to end. And who can blame them- Chima was out, and not cutting it. So TLG listened, took a year to design the sets and come up with a story.
(I ready somewhere that CN didn't want any period of time where it was devoid of a Lego-Themed show. As I believe the Friends show is on the Disney Network.)
I would say this generally occurs when the theme is poorly designed or the design is compromised by the wishes of third parties or the design does not meet the expectations of the Lego community.
This then has to be matched against the RRP that TLG have set for the theme and the price the community is willing to pay for the theme.
Generally TLG set most RRP's at least 100% higher than they need, to make a profit.
Which allows other retailers to give 40-50% discounts and still make a profit.
Then there is the current general economic situation which has to be taken into account. In bad times more themes are likely to sell less than expected.
TLG is doing okay (largest toy company?) http://time.com/money/3268065/lego-largest-toy-company-mattel/
Jurassic Park theme is interesting....we saw huge popularity with the movie tie in....and now most retailers have put them on clearance for a time. Did lego produce a second run based on the initial movie tie in, and not realize as the movie fades from memory so do the sets? If so, this could qualify as underperforming.
Mind you, I doubt any of those themes was expected to last more than one consecutive wave, even if they HAD been commercially successful. Look what happened with Jurassic World — both the movie and sets were commercially successful, yet it still only got one wave of sets. Most movie franchises aren't expected to generate the same persistent levels of hype as Star Wars. But that doesn't mean it's not worth cashing in on an intended franchise starter when a new movie is imminent and the hype is at its peak. LEGO has more than enough big, reliable brands that they can afford taking a small gamble every now and then.