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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,761
    edited May 2016
    bluedragon said:
    ^^I pretty much follow @pharmjod 's rule. A notable exception was the Grand Carousel I bought for $850 or so. It was meant to stay in my personal collection but with the appreciation that followed I had to let it go.
    As a general rule, I will not buy LEGO sets over 250 USD, actually most times I will not buy a set if it is over 200USD. If the set is near 200 that I want, I typically wait for a sale or to accrue VIP points or some other method to discount a set before I buy it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    pharmjod said:
    ryjay said:
    The sea cow was just ugly...if you gave it to me, I'd give it right back, and then go wash my hands...yuk as sets go. :)
    I will say the sea cow was a blast to build. Very enjoyable watching it get taller and taller. It is ridiculous looking, which is part of its charm for me.
    That is what my wife says to me all of the time ;)
    bandit778VorpalRyucatwranglerSamJFollowsCloselyricecakeSumoLegoJackad7Omastar
  • lego16lego16 Member Posts: 11
    The Sea Cow looks amazing next to any city layout.  Yes, it's out of place and everyone has their personal perspective on it, but the amount of detail on it and how tall it sits is just too cool.  If you loved the movie, it's a must have IMO.  Bought it last year in October for 250 really not understanding legos at that time.  So glad I did.  It was my first purchase as an AFOL.
    catwranglerprevere
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,761
    lego16 said:
    The Sea Cow looks amazing next to any city layout.  Yes, it's out of place and everyone has their personal perspective on it, but the amount of detail on it and how tall it sits is just too cool.  If you loved the movie, it's a must have IMO.  Bought it last year in October for 250 really not understanding legos at that time.  So glad I did.  It was my first purchase as an AFOL.
    I loved the movie and did not feel I had to have the Sea Cow. Not at that price point.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Pitfall69 said:
    pharmjod said:

    I will say the sea cow was a blast to build. Very enjoyable watching it get taller and taller. It is ridiculous looking, which is part of its charm for me.
    That is what my wife says to me all of the time ;)
    What? That you're a midget enjoying a mid-life growth spurt?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Looks like a good time to begin those Architecture investments.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited June 2016
    This may not be the thread to ask this question in.  And, it's probably been asked and answered.  Has the average price of a LEGO set increased (adjusting for inflation) over the past few years?  It seems so to me, but may just be my perception.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^My un-scientific response is yes. Notably with LEGO-owned themes like City.
    VorpalRyuTXLegoguy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,761
    cloaked7 said:
    This may not be the thread to ask this question in.  And, it's probably been asked and answered.  Has the average price of a LEGO set increased (adjusting for inflation) over the past few years?  It seems so to me, but may just be my perception.
    Just my opinion, but I think some is inflation, but some is just a company getting a bit greedy. I expect that with SW (as that has been going on for years), but even regular themes are seeing it. Especially when you see prices for some of those sets dropping pretty well from 20% off to near 40% off (Like #60052, #60097 as notable examples). Are smaller sets rising in price overall? Sure, but I expect something to go up a buck here or there, not 10-20 dollars in the span of 1-2 years. I will also add that Im not financial expert on the economy so maybe that is appropriate for the economy now vs a few years ago, but it just seems pretty high (for some sets at least)
    VorpalRyupreveredougtsTXLegoguycatwranglerFarmer_John
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 257
    I also think the quality of sets is going up. More exclusive figures, more figures per set, new moulds and colors. Look at early SW sets and compare them to today's offerings. This leads to higher prices.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited June 2016
    I think the #60132 Service Station and #60080 Spaceport are key examples to what we're seeing lately. These sets are unreasonably priced.


    TXLegoguycatwranglerFarmer_John
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    "Quality of sets" includes quality of parts in my view.  I'll say we're at a wash.
    goshe7CircleKlegomentalSumoLegopharmjodmadforLEGOOmastar
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    prevere said:
    I think the #60132 Service Station and #60080 Spaceport are key examples to what we're seeing lately. These sets are unreasonably priced.


    At least this usually means they will also be unreasonably discounted.
    legomentalpharmjodmadforLEGO
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    edited June 2016
    madforLEGO said:
    cloaked7 said:
    This may not be the thread to ask this question in.  And, it's probably been asked and answered.  Has the average price of a LEGO set increased (adjusting for inflation) over the past few years?  It seems so to me, but may just be my perception.
    Just my opinion, but I think some is inflation, but some is just a company getting a bit greedy. I expect that with SW (as that has been going on for years), but even regular themes are seeing it. Especially when you see prices for some of those sets dropping pretty well from 20% off to near 40% off (Like #60052, #60097 as notable examples). Are smaller sets rising in price overall? Sure, but I expect something to go up a buck here or there, not 10-20 dollars in the span of 1-2 years. I will also add that Im not financial expert on the economy so maybe that is appropriate for the economy now vs a few years ago, but it just seems pretty high (for some sets at least)
    Right. First example that springs to mind is the price increase on CMF. Modulars have saw two price jumps in less than three years.

    I used to look for 30% off in order to get a good deal. Now I look for it just so I can buy a set at the price it should have been to begin with. I still find Creator to be reasonable for the most part however and that works for me. 
    catwranglerLordCrom
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    I think that is pretty much spot on. There will always be a few examples that are poor value and others that are better. Parts counts and new moulds and even styles of sets change with time slowly so monitoring value is hard.

    I wouldn't put any increases down to greed though. They seem to be experts at pricing (hardly surprising for a large toy maker!) to make sets sell at the right rate with sales as need be. Maximising profit is not greed.
    pharmjodAanchirSumoLego
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 Member Posts: 722
    Is it just me or has the price of the old architecture sets seemed to gone up a lot in the last year or so?
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    Shhh. Don't tell anyone.
    BumblepantsJamesJTBricklover18
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    madforLEGO said:
    cloaked7 said:
    This may not be the thread to ask this question in.  And, it's probably been asked and answered.  Has the average price of a LEGO set increased (adjusting for inflation) over the past few years?  It seems so to me, but may just be my perception.
    Just my opinion, but I think some is inflation, but some is just a company getting a bit greedy. I expect that with SW (as that has been going on for years), but even regular themes are seeing it. Especially when you see prices for some of those sets dropping pretty well from 20% off to near 40% off (Like #60052, #60097 as notable examples). Are smaller sets rising in price overall? Sure, but I expect something to go up a buck here or there, not 10-20 dollars in the span of 1-2 years. I will also add that Im not financial expert on the economy so maybe that is appropriate for the economy now vs a few years ago, but it just seems pretty high (for some sets at least)
    And these $10-20 increase have been a tipping point for me. Those increases have me asking, "do I really need these", and the answer lately has been no.   Even the one item I was interested in, the Brick Bank, I've  past on because it was up $10 over the other modulars.  $159 I paid, $169 I'm not.
    TXLegoguy
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    CCC said:
    Maximising profit is not greed.
    Can I like this 1000x?  
  • AanchirAanchir Member Posts: 3,014
    ryjay said:
    madforLEGO said:
    cloaked7 said:
    This may not be the thread to ask this question in.  And, it's probably been asked and answered.  Has the average price of a LEGO set increased (adjusting for inflation) over the past few years?  It seems so to me, but may just be my perception.
    Just my opinion, but I think some is inflation, but some is just a company getting a bit greedy. I expect that with SW (as that has been going on for years), but even regular themes are seeing it. Especially when you see prices for some of those sets dropping pretty well from 20% off to near 40% off (Like #60052, #60097 as notable examples). Are smaller sets rising in price overall? Sure, but I expect something to go up a buck here or there, not 10-20 dollars in the span of 1-2 years. I will also add that Im not financial expert on the economy so maybe that is appropriate for the economy now vs a few years ago, but it just seems pretty high (for some sets at least)
    And these $10-20 increase have been a tipping point for me. Those increases have me asking, "do I really need these", and the answer lately has been no.   Even the one item I was interested in, the Brick Bank, I've  past on because it was up $10 over the other modulars.  $159 I paid, $169 I'm not.
    I mean, it's fine to set your personal buying threshold wherever you like, and change that at any time, but $169.99 is actually less than what the Green Grocer or Fire Brigade cost in today's money.

    That said, Brick Bank is about 400 grams lighter than Green Grocer and 15 grams lighter than Fire Brigade, so the price per gram has seemingly increased somewhat, if not the price per piece or the "real" price.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    @Aanchir....I'm not analyzing it like many people here do, I'm just responding to it from an initial reaction when I see the price ...and that reaction is to pass on many sets.   
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    ryjay said:
    @Aanchir....I'm not analyzing it like many people here do, I'm just responding to it from an initial reaction when I see the price ...and that reaction is to pass on many sets.   
    I think that is fine, nearly everyone does it. I'm sure most people glance at the price when purchasing something and make a decision based on perceived value. Yesterday in the supermarket, I put back a bottle of wine that I have had before as it was £10.99 and I'm sure I only paid about £8 before. And I bought a different bottle (different company) for £8.99 instead. No doubt others will still buy it at £10.99, just as others will buy Brick Bank at $169. I'm sure the same thing occurs on all products, from lego, to cars to toilet paper.

    So long as enough people shell out the $169, then lego are happy.  They really don't care about individuals, even if a $10 increase in a set means you dropping out of the hobby completely. All they need to make sure is that enough people buy at $169 (and buy their other sets). If it doesn't happen, then they will eventually discount.

    But you only need to look at the sales and deals section of [email protected] recently to see that very little stock needs to be discounted to sell it.


    SumoLegoAanchir
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Member Posts: 1,643
    ^to add that 10$ is a 6% increase on the cost of a modular (roughly) - Lego can afford for 6% of people to walk away and they would be doing better than they were before (less bricks having to be sold).  In fact they need to increase the price each time until they do lose (make less) money on a set (AoH anyone) so they know what the maximum they can charge is - they are a business afterall.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    CCC said:

    But you only need to look at the sales and deals section of [email protected] recently to see that very little stock needs to be discounted to sell it.


    WHAAAT!?! You mean to say the sales and deals section is worth looking at somewhere? It certainly isn't for Australia, the only items I've ever seen in there have been the watches, keyrings & the occasional item from the home catergory, like drink bottles... My only reasons to use [email protected] are:
    1) VIP Points.
    2) It can take 6 months for sets to show up on shelves here (I was lucky I brought an Ant-Man set from [email protected], it was a blink & you missed it scenario).
    3) Polybags & exclusives for spending over X amount.
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Member Posts: 1,643
    ^I think that was his point (they don't need to reduce anything so the prices must be right).  Unless they are sending it all out to other retailers to discount I guess.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    There are a lot of sales here, according to my spreadsheet for our Lego purchases, I'm averaging 23.5% off RRP, which is taking into account [email protected] purchases. Of course Big W never sells at RRP: Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter, TLG [email protected] $44.99, Big W $39.00. It's awesome when Big W have a 20-25% off sale, with a friend's Woolworths group employee discount card 25-30%. It's how two of my friends got their Helicarriers for $330.00 (regular price at Big W $475). Very little Lego moves off the shelves here unless there is a sale.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited June 2016
    It is similar in the UK, there are loads of sales at other retailers and are probably needed to shift the product from a supermarket. But at lego, very little is under RRP. Yet stand outside a lego store (OK, you can't if you are in Aus!) and see how many happy kids come out holding bags full of lego. Lego sells at RRP.
    SumoLego
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Member Posts: 1,643
    edited June 2016
    Standing outside the store watching the children sounds a bit creepy.  I can't really decide if it is worse than standing inside and groping the cmfs for ages though.  Much of a muchness I guess.
    VorpalRyuSprinkleOtter
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    OK, sit outside like the people waiting for their family to leave a store. There is no need to imply paedophilia.
    VorpalRyu
  • AanchirAanchir Member Posts: 3,014
    edited June 2016
    CCC said:
    It is similar in the UK, there are loads of sales at other retailers and are probably needed to shift the product from a supermarket. But at lego, very little is under RRP. Yet stand outside a lego store (OK, you can't if you are in Aus!) and see how many happy kids come out holding bags full of lego. Lego sells at RRP.
    I've seen LEGO Brand Retail in the United States mark things down pretty considerably. Chima sets, for instance. Or last year when they were giving away $50 and $60 Ninjago sets for free with purchases of the Temple of Airjitzu on select days. Of course, they're not necessarily as big a markdown as you see at other retailers for the same sets. But they're nothing to sneeze at, either. LEGO.com offers are generally not so great, though.

    The thing to remember about LBR and LEGO.com discounts is that their hands are sometimes sort of tied, since other retailers get peeved if they think the company that supplies them sets is undercutting their prices, thereby cutting out the middle man. If retailers can't count on people buying sets from them instead of from LEGO.com/LBR, they won't want to stock as many LEGO sets in the first place. That's the whole reason the LEGO VIP program exists — it gives people an incentive to shop at LEGO stores and LEGO.com even though they often can't offer "real" markdowns the way other stores do.
    pharmjodblack_towrLyichir
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    So, to put this even more into perspective...

    I grabbed a Green Grocer on sale AT Lego [email protected] for $118 + No tax. Here it is 2016 and a Brick Bank is $169.99 + 6% sales tax = $180.19. I bought the GG when they were EOL, so that's the end of 2010, so we can basically say 2011, but I will use 2010 inflation. That $118 is $129.47 in today's money. That's still almost $51 more for Brick Bank than what I paid for Green Grocer!!! 
    FollowsCloselydougtsBumblepantspharmjodYodaliciouskiki180703VorpalRyuOmastar
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,302
    Yep, I miss those days.
    pharmjodPitfall69SumoLegokiki180703
  • AanchirAanchir Member Posts: 3,014
    Pitfall69 said:
    ryjay said:
    @Aanchir....I'm not analyzing it like many people here do, I'm just responding to it from an initial reaction when I see the price ...and that reaction is to pass on many sets.   
    I think the big thing that is missing from the discussion is the discounts on Exclusives here in the US. If I bought a Cafe Corner at the end of its run in 2009 for RRP ($139.99), that would equate to $156 in today's money. That's not bad, but if you factor in discounts on all the modulars before the "ban", $169.99 for the Brick Bank is outrageous. For example, I was able to grab a Green Grocer for $118, a Fire Brigade for $111 and a Town Hall for under $170. For me, $169.99, is awfully high considering there are no discounts. Another thing to throw in is taxes. When there was no Lego store here in Michigan, you were able to get all your Lego [email protected] purchases tax free. Starting October of 2015 Amazon purchases are subject to tax. So, that $169.99 Brick Bank is sounding even more expensive now.
    Fair point. I started collecting modular buildings with the Pet Shop (I'm honestly not sure if the earlier ones in my family's collection were ones my dad had bought earlier or ones he bought on the aftermarket — might've been some of both), so I had no experience with those sorts of markdowns.

    I still don't think the increases in RRP have been outrageous considering inflation, but I can definitely understand how somebody who bought the old-school buildings marked down and with no state sales tax would be hesitant to pay full price (in today's money) plus sales tax for any of them, really.

    Honestly, I try to take advantage of sales and deals, but even with regular retail sets I'm not very good at it. For the stuff on my own personal wish list I usually just settle for double VIP points, which amount to a pretty meager discount, all things considered. Even when I am trying to be thrifty, I rarely have the patience to wait for a set to go on clearance, which really came back to bite me last year when I went on the LEGO Inside Tour but had already bought most of the stuff that was on my wish list (I ended up buying some expensive Technic, Mindstorms, and Ultra Agents sets at the P-shop, so it wasn't a total wash, but if I'd been smart I'd have waited to get the best prices on stuff like Ninjago that I had actually planned to collect in the first place).
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Pitfall69 said:

    I think the big thing that is missing from the discussion is the discounts on Exclusives here in the US.
    You don't mean it this way but the point is really that the US was targeted by TLG and HAD discounts to get the list prices that you've had in the past. And then you had discounts on the discounts. You don't like it because you don't get them any more.

    The US price is now simply a reflection of the price the hobby has always been. Naturally, you don't like it, but then everybody else hasn't liked it for years.

    I think it's a lot more useful, and hopefully more worthwhile, to complain about prices world-wide. LEGO products are expensive; many would say they're too expensive. Feel free to join that particular club - and we can all hope that TLG might, just, listen. But if they don't, they're certainly not going to listen to one country complaining that they've lost their preferential treatment.
    catwrangler
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    Not for nothing and I'm sure it will never happen, but if total sales started dropping off in the USA because consumers were irritated about pricing, I can guarantee LEGO would listen. This one country makes up a pretty large portion of sales for them after all. People can say what they want, but I believe the US largely drives sales of many if not most luxury type items, especially toys, worldwide. Feel free to point to data that shows otherwise. 
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I am not necessarily complaining about the Lego prices, I was more or less supporting other Bricksetter's concerned about higher Lego Prices.

    Are US prices actually lower than UK prices? Isn't 20% VAT included in all your Lego purchases? In the US, we have to pay sales tax on most of our purchases. In Michigan, I pay 6% sales tax. Let's go go back to the Brick Bank example. UK RRP is $119.99 and US RRP $169.99. $119.99 in US Dollars is $174.22. A Brick Bank for me costs me $180.19. So, Brick Bank is technically more expensive for most US customers than in the UK; plus we don't get any discounts.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,161
    ^ Brick bank seems the "fairest" UK:US price match, but there have been plenty of sets that are almost parity which makes them far more expensive in the UK, and even within the current modular sets the difference is bigger on the other sets.

    Parisian Restaurant/Detective Agency: £132.99 ($192.84) in UK vs $159.99 + 6% = £169.58. Like the US we only see discounts at certain retail chains when they're running a 3 for 2 or 20% off, maybe Amazon UK are a litle better than Amazon.com right now.


  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Most sets are still selling quite well in the US aren't they? For modulars, I wonder if Lego have noticed how many people will pay 50% on top of rrp within a couple of months after retirement, and so put 5-10% on top of rrp. If you charge 10% more, it doesn't matter if a few percent get upset. Those buyers might just hold off until double VIP points or similar freebie offer, or go completely and the extra cost outweighs the loss of a few fans.
    SumoLegoPitfall69Yodaliciouskiki180703
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Is there a FB group for buying/selling in USA?  See a ton of Aussie ones, but not USA.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    pharmjod said:

    Not for nothing and I'm sure it will never happen, but if total sales started dropping off in the USA because consumers were irritated about pricing, I can guarantee LEGO would listen. This one country makes up a pretty large portion of sales for them after all.
    SALES are irrelevant; it's profits that count. If TLG doubled their US prices, they'd triple or quadruple their profits there; if sales halved as a result, which they wouldn't, they'd still be well ahead of the game - and for a lot less effort.

    You are guaranteeing that TLG would cut their prices and their profits simply to bolster their sales figures. I don't think so.

    Discounted prices have done their job and created a demand. That can now be exploited. As with the rest of the world, those who are keen will pay; those who aren't won't matter.

    Also TLG don't look to the US for the future. Or Europe for that matter. They look to Asia, specifically China, and to South America. Jørgen has been very clear in that regard on several occasions. Many other businesses have a similar attitude.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    I just want a fountain.
    Pitfall69CircleKSumoLegobandit778kiki180703Mordoor
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    ^ Do you want to build a snowman?
    SprinkleOtterPitfall69kiki180703piratemania7
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    FollowsClosely said:
    Yep, I miss those days.
    Same here.  All this discussion and analysis of LEGO pricing (which I seem to have started) has my blood pressure up a full 27% ! ! !  :-)  
    pharmjodPitfall69kiki180703RonyarmonstblitzVorpalRyuFollowsCloselyOmastar
  • flordflord Member Posts: 797
    On a different note, now that the movie is out I wonder how the Angry Birds line is doing. Where I live, there doesn't seem to be much interest. What about y'all?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,217
    According to a smattering over various TRU, Target, Wal-Mart and retail store, they've been steady - on par with the Scooby-Doo line.
    mmozzano
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    flord said:
    On a different note, now that the movie is out I wonder how the Angry Birds line is doing. Where I live, there doesn't seem to be much interest. What about y'all?
    My client's cousin is a writer and producer for "Angry Birds"

    http://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/movies/2016/05/18/angry-birds-movie-preview-josh-cohen/84452258/
  • bandit778bandit778 Member Posts: 2,372
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Do you want to build a snowman?
    Since reading that post, that bloomin song has been in my head all morning. 
    SumoLegoFollowsClosely
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