A sad tale of how other collectibles bubbles have burst...

Yodalicious · May 2016

On the CMF note, I have seen more S15 in my area than any other series. Every Target is overflowing with them. I just went to one to finish off my Disney set (they had 30 or so) and there were hundreds of S15. Not like a box or even two, literally, hundreds. And I've seen the same at many other places.

SumoLego · May 2016

MrShinyAndNew said:
A lot of the people paying big bucks for older kits are not serious collectors who are trying to complete a series. They are just consumers paying extra for something they missed before.

Missed and need to add to their other sets of the same series or similarly designed?

It makes no sense to buy a $750.00 Cafe Corner if you aren't assembling the collection. Otherwise, substitute the parts and build something cheap.

It is also important to note that the individual pieces also maintain their own value. If most pieces are at $0.11 each, it's tough to overlook the value of pieces.

Rainstorm26 · May 2016

Yodalicious said:

On the CMF note, I have seen more S15 in my area than any other series. Every Target is overflowing with them. I just went to one to finish off my Disney set (they had 30 or so) and there were hundreds of S15. Not like a box or even two, literally, hundreds. And I've seen the same at many other places.

The Targets around me were three months late getting S15 out. I think that was a very bad move. Who will want a S15 now that Disney is out.

monstblitz · May 2016

MrShinyAndNew said:

Recce said:

They're mindful of AFOL collecting the toys though, and the resulting price inflation it had caused on the secondary market, this is the reason why till now they've yet to reproduce any of the highly sought after EOL sets, for fear of negatively impacting that market and the perceived toy value.

They don't typically reproduce sets that have a high value on the secondary market, but that's because they don't typically reproduce any sets at all. The secondary market was super hot for the original Millenium Falcon (and all the first wave Star Wars kits), but every single Star Wars ship has seen a re-release or four. The new kits are different, but they fill the same niche in the market which drives the price down for the older kits.

A lot of the people paying big bucks for older kits are not serious collectors who are trying to complete a series. They are just consumers paying extra for something they missed before. When a re-release comes out, whether it's the same model (winter village toy shop) or a new one (Star Wars sets) the consumers don't care about the old kit anymore and just buy the new one.

How many people care about the 2004 Millennium Falcon anymore? There have been two since, and so anyone who wants a Falcon can get one. The "collectibility" of those old sets is basically nil.

From what I've seen, Lego is aware of the secondary market, but they don't care about it at all. They will sell anything if it makes them profit immediately. Which is what they should be doing, IMO.

I keep hearing this mindset, but where is the cafe corner re release? Green Grocer? And the others that have been discussed extensively. Lego has to know people would slap their mama to get their hands on these sets at retail. Yet they don't release them.

pharmjod · May 2016

TigerMoth said:

TheLoneTensor said:

As we know, every year people exit their dark ages, so more are continually added to the pool, and suddenly they need to "catch up" with their collecting, which drives the purchasing of the collectible things.
To exit their dark ages, people have to enter them.

As it becomes more accepted that it's something adults also do, then there's less peer-pressure on teenagers to go into their dark ages in the first place - we're no longer talking about "a toy that's just for little kids".

Without the dark ages, less is missed.

Teenagers tend to inherently stop playing with toys for a time being as a function of growing up. The prolonged adolescents that is prevalent in our society isn't a good thing for anyone. When you don't enter a "dark age" there is probably a better than average chance you don't do a lot of growing up in other ways (ie learning a skilled trade or going to school), this in turn means less disposable income for these young people which leads to less buying. I think there is 0% concern that less people will go into a dark age. Kids grow up. That's what they are supposed to do. The majority of boys are at some point going to be more interested in girls than LEGO and I can almost guarantee that the majority of girls probably won't think playing with LEGO is cute as a teenager or young adult. Not if the young men are unable to be adults in the important ways. Just my opinion.

TigerMoth · May 2016

pharmjod said:

When you don't enter a "dark age" there is probably a better than average chance you don't do a lot of growing up in other ways (ie learning a skilled trade or going to school), this in turn means less disposable income for these young people which leads to less buying.

That's an old mindset that doesn't seem to fit with modern youngsters and there seem to be quite a few people around here who disprove that.

monstblitz said:

I keep hearing this mindset, but where is the cafe corner re release? Green Grocer? And the others that have been discussed extensively. Lego has to know people would slap their mama to get their hands on these sets at retail. Yet they don't release them.

A completely new modular is always going to have a larger market than a re-released one. There's not really much point TLG aiming at the hundreds of people who want an old set when then can target the tens of thousands who'd buy a new one.

Brick_Breakdown · May 2016

Lego doesnt appreciate as much the reason the lego from 2008 is valuable is due to the recession people with held from buying when better times came around they started spending $100(0)s over retails.

Lego is a smart company it has a large product line that is constantly adjusting to new tastes, new children's tastes so that they always ask mom and pop for lego. the only time they do "collectibles" is promotions like mr gold, tumbler, chrome vader and give aways like SDCC, toy fair sets and Space slug, if the hoth set has shown everybody is that lego cares less about collectors they care about their core cliental children so that they can have sustained success.

They also keep their prices high and keep supply low to keep there margins they can do this since they have market control (since they have an almost monopoly and large market share) They have the quality advantage and store front advantage they dont get pushed around by walmart like so many other suppliers since they have bargaining power so their product doesnt go on discount and the market gets flooded like UCS B-Wing #10227

At this moment lego is a very well run company they stay out of trouble like political issues and other bad publicity, they have such a focus on their goals, they adjust to times so that they dont get passed by time, lego is such a better company than these companies in this article its sad to even compare them so It's pretty dumb to try to corellate them.

A few might look at lego as an investment that is fine, they are a minority, lego doesnt consider them when making decisions, they'll will make decision for long term growth.

PS. Older lego will get valuable just due to the fact of a growing fan base. Lego will doesnt re release because a re release will have a smaller base to sell to especially modulars because if you own a market street your not going to be buying another one where as completely new set which they can sell to everybody because nobody owns ones.

CircleK · May 2016

pharmjod said:

Teenagers tend to inherently stop playing with toys for a time being as a function of growing up. The prolonged adolescents that is prevalent in our society isn't a good thing for anyone. When you don't enter a "dark age" there is probably a better than average chance you don't do a lot of growing up in other ways (ie learning a skilled trade or going to school), this in turn means less disposable income for these young people which leads to less buying. I think there is 0% concern that less people will go into a dark age. Kids grow up. That's what they are supposed to do. The majority of boys are at some point going to be more interested in girls than LEGO and I can almost guarantee that the majority of girls probably won't think playing with LEGO is cute as a teenager or young adult. Not if the young men are unable to be adults in the important ways. Just my opinion.

Agreed. I never stopped building with blocks or buying toys bc I feared it was socially unacceptable. I was just too busy playing with cars and girls to care for anything else.

For me and many others it seems, Dark Ages end soon after the kids get here. We want them to have the same great experiences we had as children so we go back to the things that made us happy then. That awakens the nostalgia beast and it's all down hill from there. At some point you start searching for others that share your same affliction and happen upon Brickset. With that, your transformation into a crazy AFOL is complete.

SumoLego · May 2016

^ This was closest to my experience. Although I had family that kept buying me certain sets despite college, house, wife, dog and babies.

Instead of scale model trains or a money-pit classic car, I have a ridiculous but manageable pile of Danish plastic.

LegoAddict · May 2016

As someone who has watched his 401K (a privately funded retirement account in the US, for those outside of the US not familiar) gain approximately 0.4% per year over the last 5 years, I have to admit to having thought about buying the UCS sets for investment purposes. While I don't think the government would let you spend the maximum 16,000 per year on UCS sets, It has crossed my mind to just buy 10 of the Slave-I sets and let them sit in my basement for 10 years. Just looking at the Red 5 X-wing or the Tumbler, they are already 50% more then retail, that easily outperforms my 401K!

Of course, the risk is that investments like this always have a bubble. I mean, ALWAYS have a bubble, look it up! In the case of baseball cards or Magic the gathering cards, or real estate, there is limited supply, so the price goes up. However, in the case of Lego, this is a manufactured good. Remember, Lego gains nothing by not producing not enough sets, so they will set the price ridiculously high for limited edition sets (ie Batcave) to maximize profit per set and watch the fanboys buy it or they will just keep producing sets as long as most of them will sell (volume sales). Additionally, Lego gains nothing from secondary market sales. That is why the 10188 Death Star still occasionally gets produced. That's $400 easy money for Lego, and probably 75% of the people buying them are just storing them away. Right now, Lego are hot, so Lego will produce as many Lego sets as they can. That is why CMFs are $4 now instead of $3, and I'm sure they'll increase the Disney ones to $5. Obviously, the market feels that $4 is a steal, which is why you can't find them anywhere.

My point is that as more people think this way (i.e. brickpicker), and the more people are storing these sets in their basements because of some perceived value, the supply is going to steadily creep upwards. Everyone is looking at UCS MF and Green Grocer, and hoping their Slave I and Pet Shop are going to do the same thing. We are in the bubble right now! That is why there are so many $200+ Lego sets coming out! Even as someone who loves Lego, I am shocked at just how expensive they are!

Eventually, there just won't be enough people who will want to spend $350 on a $200 MSRP Slave-I, the price will come tumbling down. Throw a recession in there somewhere, and then people will be trying to sell, and that'll be the time to buy. So, I hope there are lots of people out there trying to invest in Lego, because eventually, I'm going to get some cheap sets!

Then, as the wise Mr. Istok says, physical space has to be an issue at some point! My basement is currently a disaster! I feel bad for my heirs whenever they are going to have to clean out my Lego collection when I am gone. Actually, they'll probably sell it for pennies on the dollar, and all of my investments will have gone to waste! Do you know how much that 375 Castle instruction sheet goes for!!!! Noooo!!!!!

mathew · May 2016

I go in and out of "collecting" Lego. Honestly, building sets by the instructions and putting them on a shelf... to collect dust...doesn't inspire me anymore. MOC'ing is enjoyable but that requires work and inspiration... and the right pieces in various quantities.

The point is that I can see themes like UCS and Modulars eventually becoming less collectable. Except for those who buy them specifically for the pieces. And most people are not going to spend $200 or more on a set only to dump all the pieces into storage containers.

Eventually Star Wars will fade away again, like it did in the mid-80's through the mid-90's. And I could see Lego following suit. They won't go out of business, but may become more a niche toy. As a kid I had Lego, but I had a lot more GI Joes, Transformers, Kenner toys (Star Wars, MASK) He-Man etc.

MattDawson · May 2016

If we're talking about pricing, has anyone seen how much the Monorail sets/pieces go for? That's a product line that would sit quite well in the city line, but I'd imagine Lego won't re-introduce it due to it's competition with the train line.

As for re-releases, remember that Lego did that with the Metroliner and Club Car, and from what I can gather they didn't sell as expected second time round as 'Legends'.

CCC · May 2016

MattDawson said:

If we're talking about pricing, has anyone seen how much the Monorail sets/pieces go for? That's a product line that would sit quite well in the city line, but I'd imagine Lego won't re-introduce it due to it's competition with the train line.

I imagine they won't re-release it because:

1) it was expensive for LEGO to produce, I believe more so than PF trains.

2) This is the big one for me - monorails are no longer the cool, futuristic system that they used to be envisaged as 30 years ago. Monorails are reasonably common now, as transport in zoos or theme parks, or more serious ones used for inner or inter city transport.

CCC · May 2016

Brick_Breakdown said:

Lego doesnt appreciate as much the reason the lego from 2008 is valuable is due to the recession people with held from buying when better times came around they started spending $100(0)s over retails.

It does if you buy the right stuff.

Brick_Breakdown said:

Lego is a smart company it has a large product line that is constantly adjusting to new tastes, new children's tastes so that they always ask mom and pop for lego. the only time they do "collectibles" is promotions like mr gold, tumbler, chrome vader and give aways like SDCC, toy fair sets and Space slug, if the hoth set has shown everybody is that lego cares less about collectors they care about their core cliental children so that they can have sustained success.

I disagree here. All the CMF are collectable. You only need to look at deals sites to see general public (non-AFOL) talking about finishing their collections, just like they finish their Panini football stickers. Of course, they are pocket money toys aimed at kids, but that doesn't mean that they are not collectables. LEGO knows exactly what they are doing producing short-lived, numbered, pocket money toys in blind packaging.

Brick_Breakdown said:

PS. Older lego will get valuable just due to the fact of a growing fan base.

I also disagree here. It won't get valuable just because it is old. Older lego will only get value if

1) it is kept as the sets or there are a few individual unique parts in the set
2) the parts are not reused in later sets (BL sets is possible)
3) it is kept in decent condition
4) lego doesn't issue something similar (distinct from a re-release of the original). For example, I imagine CC's value would drop if they do a corner restaurant with more modern techniques that looks better than the CC at a fraction of the current secondary market price.

As others have mentioned, there is also play off between how many new sets are produced. If they can pump out two new modulars a year, would people really bother going back, paying 10x the price for old ones when they can build a substantial street in just a couple of years? If they have too many new ones, then the older ones become less attractive (financially). If they have fewer new ones, then less people may be drawn to buying the first one and so less people are looking for older ones.

Yellow · May 2016

I'm an old fan of LEGO. Being 43 I still buy sets for myself as well, as for my children (well not anymore because the are going into dark ages), and other (small) children of my relatives.

I also buy LEGO to sell on the secondary market, in order to finance my hobby of collecting LEGO. As you look through the past years, some of the LEGO sets can be considered as really good investment. But if you look at LEGO as a construction toy, you can see the price increase over years. So if you buy a set now, for sure it will cost you less than buying any future LEGO sets with the same size or piececount, let's say five years later.

There will always be fans of Star Wars saga who will be also LEGO collectors. The sets purchased now will be valuable for the future collectors. Not necessary to sell them (but I'm sure you will be able to sell them), but for next generations in your own family.

An example: when my childeren started to be interested in Indiana Jones, the LEGO Indy sets were available only on the secondary market. I wish I had bought theme before on the primary market to preserve them and give them to my children 3-4 years later.

Picopirate · May 2016

LegoAddict said:

As someone who has watched his 401K (a privately funded retirement account in the US, for those outside of the US not familiar) gain approximately 0.4% per year over the last 5 years, I have to admit to having thought about buying the UCS sets for investment purposes.

Wow, cant add text outside the quotes for some reason.

I don't mean to come off as rude, but if your 401k has only earned 0.4% a year, you need to rethink your investments. The US is currently in the second longest bull market in history and the market has doubled in value since 2009. Most people have averaged about 9% each year since then.

In this market, the stock market will probably outperform lego. Sure some sets skyrocket in price but most just go up slightly if at all. The average is probably less than the stock market average.

goshe7 · May 2016

^ I was going to say if you are only getting 0.4%, you probably will not fare much better with LEGO.

kbenjes · May 2016

goshe7 said:

^ I was going to say if you are only getting 0.4%, you probably will not fare much better with LEGO.

Maybe his investment bond heavy? US stock-index investments over the past five years have experience tremendous growth, so that .4% figure seems strange, unless he meant 4%.

TheLoneTensor · May 2016

Picopirate said:

LegoAddict said:

As someone who has watched his 401K (a privately funded retirement account in the US, for those outside of the US not familiar) gain approximately 0.4% per year over the last 5 years, I have to admit to having thought about buying the UCS sets for investment purposes.
Wow, cant add text outside the quotes for some reason.

I don't mean to come off as rude, but if your 401k has only earned 0.4% a year, you need to rethink your investments. The US is currently in the second longest bull market in history and the market has doubled in value since 2009. Most people have averaged about 9% each year since then.

In this market, the stock market will probably outperform lego. Sure some sets skyrocket in price but most just go up slightly if at all. The average is probably less than the stock market average.

Note: Clicking on the "</>" symbol toggles HTML view, which could make it easier to separate quote blocks.

I agree that someone who realized only 0.4% annual return from their 401k over the last 5 years probably needs to perform a serious review of their investment diversification strategy.

I heartily disagree with the idea that the stock market will outperform smart Lego investing. If someone is only making ~9% investing in Lego, they also need to perform a serious review of their investment diversification strategy.

richo · May 2016

Most serious experts on here could out perform almost any unit trusts, investment trusts or other baskets of funds by buying and selling Lego.

The big drawback is of course, storage, space and time. Most people don't want to spend any time on their investments. This would be quite the opposite if Lego was one of your main investments, as the key to any good investment is knowing when to sell and re-invest etc.

Also, if you are buying and selling Lego on any serious scale, you are also by definition running a business, which brings further complications you need to take care of like book keeping and tax.

TheLoneTensor · May 2016

I see your point, but you seem to be making the assumption that people don't realize those commodity-centric issues you list. My comments are based on me taking every single thing you mention into consideration, yet still viewing 9% as being unacceptably low. That's where the "smart" part comes into play.

And to your comment about people not wanting to spend time, etc. It's the old adage right? If it were easy, everyone would be doing it.

richo · May 2016

I haven't bought much Lego in the last year or so due to some personal issues I was sorting, getting married etc. All my Lego went in the loft for a while. I actually went up there to work out what the heck I had this week. One example was several Uruk Hai army sets. I bought them for £12 from Tesco when they had a crazy double sale of discounted sets then some other further deal like 3 for 2. Price now is £45-50. I don't have any intention of selling them, as they will be awesome army builders when I work out what I might build next, but that's like 3-400% in what, two years? Pretty crazy really.

Aanchir · May 2016

monstblitz said:

MrShinyAndNew said:

Recce said:

They're mindful of AFOL collecting the toys though, and the resulting price inflation it had caused on the secondary market, this is the reason why till now they've yet to reproduce any of the highly sought after EOL sets, for fear of negatively impacting that market and the perceived toy value.

They don't typically reproduce sets that have a high value on the secondary market, but that's because they don't typically reproduce any sets at all. The secondary market was super hot for the original Millenium Falcon (and all the first wave Star Wars kits), but every single Star Wars ship has seen a re-release or four. The new kits are different, but they fill the same niche in the market which drives the price down for the older kits.

A lot of the people paying big bucks for older kits are not serious collectors who are trying to complete a series. They are just consumers paying extra for something they missed before. When a re-release comes out, whether it's the same model (winter village toy shop) or a new one (Star Wars sets) the consumers don't care about the old kit anymore and just buy the new one.

How many people care about the 2004 Millennium Falcon anymore? There have been two since, and so anyone who wants a Falcon can get one. The "collectibility" of those old sets is basically nil.

From what I've seen, Lego is aware of the secondary market, but they don't care about it at all. They will sell anything if it makes them profit immediately. Which is what they should be doing, IMO.

I keep hearing this mindset, but where is the cafe corner re release? Green Grocer? And the others that have been discussed extensively. Lego has to know people would slap their mama to get their hands on these sets at retail. Yet they don't release them.

Probably because they know they stand to make much more money on a new set with a state-of-the-art design that nobody in the world has than on a re-release of a set that thousands of people already have, with a design that's already out-of-date. The LEGO Group's ability to make big sets like those is fairly limited, as is fans' ability to buy them, so it's no surprise LEGO wants to make each one count and get the most bang for their buck (err… krone).

There are also other reasons, which Jamie Berard himself explained right here on these very forums. LEGO may not care about preserving the secondary market for sets like these, but they have plenty of reasons not to re-release them that have nothing to do with the originals' aftermarket value.

catwrangler · May 2016

richo said:

Most serious experts on here could out perform almost any unit trusts, investment trusts or other baskets of funds by buying and selling Lego.

The big drawback is of course, storage, space and time. Most people don't want to spend any time on their investments. This would be quite the opposite if Lego was one of your main investments, as the key to any good investment is knowing when to sell and re-invest etc.

Also, if you are buying and selling Lego on any serious scale, you are also by definition running a business, which brings further complications you need to take care of like book keeping and tax.

Yes, I've heard quite a few people on the forum say that reselling has reduced the fun of Lego for them, which is understandable because it tends to happen when your hobby becomes your business. I'm a writer; my partner used to run a freelance illustration and portraiture business... we've been there.

And I don't mean this in a reseller-bashing, "YOUR JOY SHALL BECOME YOUR DOOM, AND SERVE YOU RIGHT!" way; it's just what tends to happen when something you did purely for fun requires its own routine and admin, particularly when, as you pointed out, it involves dealing with taxes. Sigh.

I'm impressed that by judicious buying and reselling people can bankroll their building/collecting, or even pay for important real-life things, but even if I had the budget (the clue was in "writer", really, wasn't it?), I think I'd be wary of turning my fun, de-stressing thing into a work thing...

MrShinyAndNew · May 2016

monstblitz said:

MrShinyAndNew said:
They don't typically reproduce sets that have a high value on the secondary market, but that's because they don't typically reproduce any sets at all.

I keep hearing this mindset, but where is the cafe corner re release? Green Grocer? And the others that have been discussed extensively. Lego has to know people would slap their mama to get their hands on these sets at retail. Yet they don't release them.

As I said before. They don't usually re-release old sets. They release new ones that replace them. Star Wars is a bit unusual in that the new sets feature the same ships as the old sets. In Star Wars, "Millennium Falcon" is the theme equivalent of "Police Station" for City. Every so often they release a new Police Station, and every so often they release a new Millennium Falcon or X-Wing or whatever.

They released a new UCS X-Wing despite there being an older one that was impossible to find. They released dozens of Jedi Starfighters. Storm Troopers used to be rare and now they're everywhere. Lego releases products for new customers. They don't show any signs of caring about the secondary market.

Consider the Winter Village Toy shop. For some reason which nobody can understand, Lego re-released an old kit. The secondary market howled. The primary market didn't care. As far as most kids are concerned, it's a new kit, because they weren't alive when the first came out.

Consider Lego trains. Several of the old trains are very popular and fetch big bucks on the secondary market. I'm personally considering buying the Emerald Night if I can get it at a reasonable price. But if Lego released a new, quality steam engine tomorrow, a model that's as good as EN, why would I bother with EN? Just get Scarlet Dawn or whatever model it is. Lego has made more than one Maersk ship. Why would anyone care about the first when the second is available?

In short, Lego's new models are meant for new buyers. Sometimes they re-do something they did before: Star Wars ships, certain staples like trains, police stations, etc, the Sopwith Camel, iconic superhero sets, etc. But it's almost always a new model of the old thing. Yet the effect on the secondary market is the same: prices plummet, because now the old thing isn't that important. A large enough percentage of buyers want a Millennium Falcon, not specifically #7190 or #4504.

The demand for certain modulars such as CC and GG is probably primarily AFOLs trying to get the whole set. But would those sets do as well at retail as the ones they sell now? Considering how the modulars have changed over time, I'd guess not. Modulars are more detailed now, shorter, slightly smaller buildings with highly-detailed interiors. They feature more advanced build techniques and rely less on a large number of identical pieces to make a convincing facade. Would a re-release of an older modular sell as well? I'd guess not. What reason would any random person have for choosing CC or GG over Brick Bank or Parisian Cafe or Detective's Office? Is whatever reason you're thinking enough to counteract the lost sales from AFOLs who already have it, and new customers who aren't as impressed by its older style?

But there is one thing I'd guarantee. If Lego released an updated CC or GG that featured new parts, new build techniques, and detailed interiors, then A) it would sell well, and B) it would diminish the after market for the older kits, and C) it wouldn't technically be a re-release.

Tl;DR: Lego doesn't act like a company that wants to encourage, or even cares about, the secondary market.

TheLoneTensor · May 2016

I think you're absolutely right. As soon as any hobby becomes work, it begins to suck. That being written, however, (ohh boy, get ready for debate on what I'm about to write) it helps to know that on the reselling side of my collector persona, I'm providing a valuable service. Like a mother who recently bought a Jabba+Rancor Pit for her boy's birthday from me. He totally wanted them, they aren't available anywhere, and I provided them to her at a reasonable price. She was incredibly kind and grateful and even followed up with a picture from his birthday party. That made me feel really good.

That's the kind of thing that helps keep me in the game.

richo · May 2016

Nice story. Better than mum storing it in the loft for resale. lol

SumoLego · May 2016

What that really him? I find that hard to believe.

jamie Member
March 2012 edited March 2012

jamie said:
I normally don't chime in, but after reading three pages of discussion I can't help but comment on a few things.

First, thank you to everyone who has supported the modular line over the years. I'm psyched that we were just able to release our 7th building! Hopefully sales will continue to stay strong so we can continue to grow and evolve the concept.

In regards to re-releases, we have considered them many times over the past several years. We learned a lot from the LEGO Legends line. First and foremost is that fans' memories are extremely difficult to match with original products. Those sets which were exact re-releases, for some reason seemed smaller, less detailed or somehow not quite as grandiose as remembered. Compared with current sets, the price value also seemed to be lacking. Sets with substitution bricks were blasted as not being authentic enough and somehow not true to the original masterpiece. In the end, more fans spoke of wanting re-releases than those who actually purchased them.

Speaking of substitution elements, the Cafe Corner could not be re-released again today without a reasonable amount of reworking and substitution elements. Our bricks are constantly evolving and improving which can cause issues when trying to stay true to an original design. For example, we no longer have the molds for the doors which were used for both the corner and side door. Our substitution options for these doors would be 1 brick taller which would affect the look and build of the entire set. The wall elements used in the mid-floor now have extra support structures which look slightly different than the originals. Our 1x6x1 arches have changed as well as several other elements.

So far all of the modular buildings with the possible exception of Market Street have lived in the market for an average of 3 years. Cafe Corner was retired with the launch of the Grand Emporium. Considering that our standard retail range usually lasts 6 months to 2 years, I believe there has been a reasonable amount of time to purchase each of the modulars.

Unfortunately this does not help those of you who missed out on the Cafe Corner and now want to buy it. As a fellow fan, I too am struggling to balance bricklink and Ebay LEGO purchases with maintaining a mortgage and relationship :)

All I can recommend is to keep your eyes open for bargains (craigslist, yard sales and word of mouth through friends) and keep up the optimism. I'm not sure I'll ever get all the sets I've always wanted...but I'm not sure that's such a bad thing...

Aanchir · May 2016

SumoLego said:

What that really him? I find that hard to believe.

I see no meaningful reason to doubt it. It's not like Jamie doesn't pay attention to what fans are saying, after all, and he's not some recluse who never communicates directly with fans. None of the stuff in that post stands out as inaccurate or implausible.

I've gone ahead and sent him a Facebook message just to verify that it was him, but I already have an idea what the answer will be.

SumoLego · May 2016

TheLoneTensor said:

Like a mother who recently bought a Jabba+Rancor Pit for her boy's birthday from me. She was incredibly kind and grateful and even followed up with a picture from his birthday party. That made me feel really good.

That's the kind of thing that helps keep me in the game.

God bless @TheLoneTensor.

And thank you for selling those sets to my Mom. It was the best Birthday ever!

TheLoneTensor · May 2016

My favorite part of that Jamie thing was "Considering that our standard retail range usually lasts 6 months to 2 years..."

SumoLego · May 2016

Maybe that's an acknowledgment of the DS, GE, and PS 'zombie' status.

They have been retired, but nobody bothered to tell them...

Bumblepants · May 2016

^Those sets are not 'standard retail' though.

CCC · May 2016

SumoLego said:

Maybe that's an acknowledgment of the DS, GE, and PS 'zombie' status.

They have been retired, but nobody bothered to tell them...

Not to be confused with "The Zombies" status.

SumoLego · May 2016

^ True. 'The Zombies' enjoyed an inverse-zombie status. Wherein the set was retired before it was released.

Brick_Breakdown · May 2016

CCC said:

Brick_Breakdown said:

PS. Older lego will get valuable just due to the fact of a growing fan base.

I also disagree here. It won't get valuable just because it is old. Older lego will only get value if

1) it is kept as the sets or there are a few individual unique parts in the set
2) the parts are not reused in later sets (BL sets is possible)
3) it is kept in decent condition
4) lego doesn't issue something similar (distinct from a re-release of the original). For example, I imagine CC's value would drop if they do a corner restaurant with more modern techniques that looks better than the CC at a fraction of the current secondary market price.

As others have mentioned, there is also play off between how many new sets are produced. If they can pump out two new modulars a year, would people really bother going back, paying 10x the price for old ones when they can build a substantial street in just a couple of years? If they have too many new ones, then the older ones become less attractive (financially). If they have fewer new ones, then less people may be drawn to buying the first one and so less people are looking for older ones.

You miss the point of that statement, the statement doesnt say older lego is more valuable because it is old, it is saying that when cafe corner was around that there were 25 collectors and 25 sold today there are 85 collectors and 25 cafe corners as a result of a larger fan base it makes older sets rarer. It keeps on getting rarer as the pool of collectors increase, as a result of 60+ collectors trying to push the 25 owners to sell prices sky rocket.

As for the CMF figures you can consider lego trying to artificially make CMF more scarce but from my prospective I see them trying to keep rrsp while pumping product that means rotation of cmf is necessary, if you kept them out for extended periods of time demand for it would fade. You can see them as trying to create a collectible or the more likely case that they are trying to maximize their bottom line.

Aanchir · May 2016

Aanchir said:

SumoLego said:

What that really him? I find that hard to believe.

I see no meaningful reason to doubt it. It's not like Jamie doesn't pay attention to what fans are saying, after all, and he's not some recluse who never communicates directly with fans. None of the stuff in that post stands out as inaccurate or implausible.

I've gone ahead and sent him a Facebook message just to verify that it was him, but I already have an idea what the answer will be.

Update:

Image: https://us.v-cdn.net/5015319/uploads/editor/o6/qh66g1uys4as.png

richo · May 2016

Personally, any sort of exact reissuing I think is a very bad thing for the hobby, or more accurately the AFOL element. What I would much rather see is a a revised remake that is slightly different in some design/way.

SumoLego · May 2016

^^ Wow!

(And I am inherently skeptical by nature. I appreciate the verification. And I wasn't suggesting some global indictment of Lego or Lego Designers ignoring their consumers. I've seen the videos of the numerous personal appearances and his engagement with the community. If I were in his position, I probably wouldn't be commenting on pseudo-anonymous messageboards. As is obvious by the above post, he's best engaging the community in person or through managed social media.)

^ Completely agree. Although I would want something vastly improved - and worth purchasing on the 'second' go-round.

And I should probably clarify that @TheLoneTensor didn't actually sell older sets to my Mom. I bought them all by myself. Like a big boy! (I need to dial back the sarcasm a bit.)

Don · May 2016

SumoLego said:

And I should probably clarify that @TheLoneTensor didn't actually sell older sets to my Mom. I bought them all by myself. Like a big boy! (I need to dial back the sarcasm a bit.)

I say let the sarcasm-sensitive just strap on their sarcasm-goggles and get used to it! :-)

Brick_Breakdown · May 2016

richo said:

Personally, any sort of exact reissuing I think is a very bad thing for the hobby, or more accurately the AFOL element. What I would much rather see is a a revised remake that is slightly different in some design/way.

I'm just moving forward with new and unique designs I owns tones of sets I love my Cafe corner and all of the retired sets but Lego can do better now look at the parisian restaurant, slave 1. I think 10240 was terrible this comes from a person who didn't own 7191 I actually bought 7191 after 10240 releases I got both of them and I prefer 7191 I really really wish the redesigned it from the ground up 7191 was good 17 years ago but today they can do so much better. Cafe corner no different ground breaking 9 years less than par today.

i like Legos path other than the ucs sets t I think hoth was a flop, but sales will reflect that. Lego has to keep moving forward with new things and new design that being said I own 10187 happy to see a new beetle that is smaller and that fits with the new cars. I'm also happy to see a new redesigned winter train even if I'm a owner of 10173. but i didn't buy the winter toy shop and it upsets me because I always buy those sets for a nice christmas builds.

If you want old sets go ahead and buy them but don't expect rerelease they do not sell as well, Lego should keep on doing what they are do is producing new things that makes everybody happy not just the minority who missed out the first time

TheLoneTensor · May 2016

wow

catwrangler · May 2016

I must say that Jamie's post has made me revise my opinion re: re-releases. I've always been a bit annoyed I missed the Guarded Inn one, but it's sadly instructive to hear that more people clamour for them than actually buy them.

And indeed, what Castle set did I buy secondhand after its retirement? Not the re-released Guarded Inn, but the Medieval Market Village. Because apparently, like most people, I wanted something that gave me the feeling of my childhood sets, but if there was one updated with today's set design sensibilities and details and on a bigger scale, that was preferable...

Legopants · June 2016

SumoLego said:

Construct-a-Zurg shall rise again!

It has! Last week I auctioned off my opened Construct-a-Zurg for €35 on eBay Germany!

Ah, no - wait a minute. It went for €1.50 :-S

piratemania7 · June 2016

I've been doing a lot of think about this issue and reading through this thread several times. I have always kind of wondered this in the back of my mind - what if any bubble is there and when could it burst?

I recently was talking to a good buddy of mine who is pretty close with LEGO and he told me LEGO is more popular than ever before - I shrugged my shoulders as though it was old news. But it got me thinking even more. Who are all the "new comers" to the world of LEGO? I bet it is the core demographic that LEGO is catering too - the younger generation. So I wonder if any reseller and/or AFOL bubble could eventually burst?

There have been a lot of new releases this year (D2C) in particular that just havent interested me. I remember only a couple years back it seems I was buying one large exclusive or another almost monthly! Now? Not so much.

TigerMoth · June 2016

piratemania7 said:

I recently was talking to a good buddy of mine who is pretty close with LEGO and he told me LEGO is more popular than ever before - I shrugged my shoulders as though it was old news. But it got me thinking even more. Who are all the "new comers" to the world of LEGO?

There are just more kids; there are also more kids for whom it is affordable; and there are adults as well as kids.

However, "popular" may not be the right word, at least if you're thinking about the number of people. One reason that more is sold is because collections are a lot larger. A few thousand pieces used to be quite good for one kid; these days, you can get that in one set.

CCC · June 2016

Also something I notice more these days is that kids like to keep their sets together. I got told off by my son recently for suggesting he mixes some of his up. Keeping them together means they want more. Or maybe having more means they don't need to mix them up.

oldtodd33 · June 2016

^ That's funny, I suggested to my son that he keep his sets built as they were instructed to be built and was told that it wasn't any fun to keep them built as sets.

CCC · June 2016

I find it a little sad that the lego that gets played with most in out house is:

Random stuff I buy on BL (two types, general box and castle box)
Classic (bucket) boxes, mainly mixed in with general box above
PAB cup finds, again mainly mixed into general box above

The sets (many of them) get built, and occasionally played with, but not much. Otherwise, the play seems to be in the building and then they are just displayed. In this sense the best value sets are the 3-in-1 creator ones, as at least they get broken down and rebuilt.

Where the general bucket lego is what comes out most days. The kids build, think, take apart, think, rebuild, think, modify, ....

One Christmas I bought about £30 worth of greys and other castle colours, bricks, doors, rock pieces, panels, etc. And a dozen castle soldiers, king and queen, etc. That has been played with so much more than any set. I think just because there is no right way, they don't care how it is built and always try to improve each time it gets destroyed.

MaffyD · June 2016

In our house the other avid Lego fan is my 6 year old, who initially was hesitant to create his own buildings and vehicles, but now really likes it. He does get a bit upset when he wants to play with the original set that he was bought and realises that it will take some time to recreate it. When that happens he normally takes the minifigs and just imagines the set is built around it.

A sad tale of how other collectibles bubbles have burst...

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