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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Ahhhh @TheLoneTensor your skill with the written word is like Monet with the brush!
    pharmjodVorpalRyuSumoLegoRainstorm26TheLoneTensorchuckpsnowhitieOmastar
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Agreed.  Initially I'd say it was a marketing tool, then it got fuzzy and inconsistent, now it's meaningless except to indicate "big expensive Star Wars set."
    pharmjodVorpalRyu
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,366
    Not quite the same marketing buzz in "big expensive Star Wars set"
    VorpalRyuSumoLegoTheLoneTensorchuckp
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.
    I really doubt it.  As Freud once said "Sometimes a crappy Lego set is just a crappy Lego set."
    I didn't say I actually plan to purchase the set (just as I never purchased a copy of the SSD), but I can guarantee that if it disappeared from [email protected] tomorrow the value would skyrocket and everyone would lament not purchasing it. Personally, I have never regretted not purchasing the SSD, and I certainly won't regret missing out on the AoH set. Besides, my kids already have all the Hoth sets they want.
    VorpalRyu
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    richo said:

    The super star destroyer's problem is that it's not exactly easy to display. A big free space and an understanding wife are prerequisites.

    Assault on Hoth I don't think is something that will do well simply because there have been so many better small and mid sized Hoth sets (7879 for example) and it will be done again, better.
    To me, the problem with the SSD was that it appeared to be a monotonous build.

    Step 1: Stick the gray piece on the gray piece.
    Step 2: Repeat step 1 until there are no more gray pieces.
    Step 3: Congratulations...you're done!
    LegoboyJackad7VorpalRyuRainstorm26ricecakewagnerml2CurvedRoadPlateOmastar
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2016
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.
    I really doubt it.  As Freud once said "Sometimes a crappy Lego set is just a crappy Lego set."
    I didn't say I actually plan to purchase the set (just as I never purchased a copy of the SSD), but I can guarantee that if it disappeared from [email protected] tomorrow the value would skyrocket and everyone would lament not purchasing it. Personally, I have never regretted not purchasing the SSD, and I certainly won't regret missing out on the AoH set. Besides, my kids already have all the Hoth sets they want.
    I get what you're saying, but I think because of its terrible design, terrifically flawed marketing strategy and hideous price, it's a perfect storm of people who should know better not doing the right thing.  If there is indeed a Lego bubble of any kind, this is the kind of set that could threaten to pop it.
    VorpalRyuJackad7
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,802
    Never tried to argue that Assault on Hoth is as good as other UCS sets. Just that, by the only official definition of UCS that there's ever been, it indisputably falls in that category, and people should stop acting like that's somehow surprising or inaccurate. People act like calling this UCS makes the term meaningless, but frankly the term has a much more definite meaning today than it ever did back in the day when people were constantly splitting hairs about whether a set with minifigures or a set with play features or a set without a nameplate could truly qualify.

    I know it's always tempting to find any excuse to exclude the sets we don't like from the categories we do (let's not even get into whether Market Street is a "true" modular building, whether Ninja was a "true" castle subtheme, whether Metalbeard's Sea Cow is  "true" pirate ship, or whether the new Porsche is a "true" Technic super car), but at some point we just have to accept that we're not in charge of how those categories are defined. We are, however, in charge of which sets from those categories we choose to collect.

    As I sort of insinuated, the closest comparison there is to Assault on Hoth in past sets is #10123 Cloud City, and I'm not going to pretend THAT was a good depiction of its subject matter, either. I mean, it was OK enough for me when I was a kid, but it was no Ewok Village.
    VorpalRyucatwranglerMattsWhatLyichir
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    Cloud city was fine for its time. We are talking 13 years ago for Pete's sake. It was perfectly fine for the timing that it came out. The original AT-AT and the UCS snow speeder were the only two sets that really surpassed it. I don't remember looking at cloud city and saying that is just God aweful. It didn't seem lazy shoddy in the same way the Hoth set does. It's not like there had been a glut of cloud city smaller sets and the designers went on auto pilot and put them together in a really expensive mega set. 

    No, the indignation and criticism for Hoth and the further dumbing down of the UCS label is justified and bringing up cloud city isn't really comparable. The theme had only been going for 5 years if that, not nearly 18.
    VorpalRyudougts
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    Agreed.  Initially I'd say it was a marketing tool, then it got fuzzy and inconsistent, now it's meaningless except to indicate "big expensive Star Wars set."
    I think that is exactly how Lego wants to market the set!  Quick - buy the 2016 Big Expensive Star Wars Set!  

    And get a free irrelevant SW minifigure polybag!!

    If you buy through [email protected], we'll ensure the polybag minifigure head will be repeatedly imprinted on the box during shipping!!!

    Space Skulls shall rise again!!!!
    TheLoneTensorVorpalRyu
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 933
    richo said:

    The super star destroyer's problem is that it's not exactly easy to display. A big free space and an understanding wife are prerequisites.

    Assault on Hoth I don't think is something that will do well simply because there have been so many better small and mid sized Hoth sets (7879 for example) and it will be done again, better.
    To me, the problem with the SSD was that it appeared to be a monotonous build.

    Step 1: Stick the gray piece on the gray piece.
    Step 2: Repeat step 1 until there are no more gray pieces.
    Step 3: Congratulations...you're done!

    Actually, there's several nice colours inside, and you can even see some of them after you've finished it!  In all seriousness, I enjoyed building it, and the engine block is very nicely designed - the Trans-Orange looks excellent.  My only criticism is that the range of elements used in the top section is limited, and personally I'd have liked a few more to add some interest to it.
    VorpalRyu
  • masterX244masterX244 GermanyMember Posts: 456
    richo said:
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.

    On a related note, it does look like the #10215 UCS Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter is doing better these days. I didn't expect it to ever go up.
    The super star destroyer's problem is that it's not exactly easy to display. A big free space and an understanding wife are prerequisites.
    --SNIP--
    Sometimes having no wife makes life easier by not having to fight with the WAF
    richo
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 1,919
    ^ I get where your coming from but there are some things that a wife is good at that you should just not try doing with Lego. ;)
    catwrangler3stackshsricecakedavetheoxygenmanBuriedinBricksSumoLegosnowhitieoldtodd33Omastar
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,145
    In my case I purchased the SSD before I even started dating my fiance (from Amazon for like $270ish, was on sale and I had a 20% off purchase of $75 or more or something like that) so my future wife has just sort of had to accept it.

    Considering the amount of Friends and Elves sets she's gathered since starting to date me, I'm in the clear.

    I loved building the SSD honestly. I need to fix the stand for it though, as it broke when I moved, and I'm worried the minifigures have gone MIA, but I still have it displayed on top of one of our bookshelves.

    UCS really is just a marketing tool. I think Assault on Hoth is a bad set, but it is officially stamped as a UCS. We can argue all day long about whether or not it should be a UCS, but Lego clearly considers it one. Perhaps Lego will learn from this debacle. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,576
    It's funny, in physics ultimate is often used to describe the point at which something breaks. So this is truly UCS.
    BumblepantsJackad7pharmjod
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    bandit778 said:
    ^ I get where your coming from but there are some things that a wife is good at that you should just not try doing with Lego. ;)
    ^ (Insert poor clutch joke here)

      (Insert plastic sausage joke here)

    CCC said:
    It's funny, in physics ultimate is often used to describe the point at which something breaks. So this is truly UCS.
    Perhaps we should call this the penultimate set:  'PUCS'

    It certainly makes my stomach turn.
    bandit778VorpalRyu
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    my fiance (from Amazon for like $270ish, was on sale and I had a 20% off purchase of $75 or more or something like that)
    You can BUY them? I know you buy most things online, but that's going a bit far.

    Did the $270 include the engagement ring as well?
    bandit778Jackad7SumoLegoeggshensnowhitieOmastar
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,145
    No, the ring was extra. Making payments on the ring sure helped out my credit score though, so all in all it was a good deal.

    (Meanwhile, I'm going to rue my absolutely horrid word placement.)
    SumoLegobandit778
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,812
    bandit778 said:
    ^ I get where your coming from but there are some things that a wife is good at that you should just not try doing with Lego. ;)
    Cooking for example.
    maaaaaaaJackad7pharmjodFollowsClosely
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720
    I was looking at brick link the other day and was very surprised when I saw the price of the robie house and some of the older architecture sets. 
    SumoLegobrumey
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    ^ I gave my brother-in-law a Robie House a few years ago and after building it, he donated to his local church.  Despite being noble and a highly trained Marine, I wanted to throddle him.

    (I did joking tell him that I would buy it back.)


  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720
    ^ mine has been displayed for the last 4 or 5 years. 
    SumoLego
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,731
    ^ mine has been displayed for the last 4 or 5 years. 
    The "brag" thread is over there... ;)
    BumblepantsBricklover18
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,700
    @SumoLego Why would a church want a Lego Robie House?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,576
    edited May 2016
    ^ Jesus is an AFOL.

    It's actually as they are (evil) resellers.
    pharmjodSumoLego
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,700
    ^Ah well that explains the passage about Jesus driving the moneychangers and merchants out of the temple. They were keeping lil' Timothy from his woodcraft blocks at fair prices
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    edited May 2016
    @SumoLego Why would a church want a Lego Robie House?
    They put it in a rummage sale.  I'm sure some really evil reseller got a great deal.

    I only thought Jesus was a co-pilot.
    Bricklover18VorpalRyu
  • Bricklover18Bricklover18 PA, USAMember Posts: 720
    I'd buy it at a rummage sale.  I was once at at yard sale where I got about 8 early 2000s Star Wars sets for $5.  They were complete with instructions and minifigures. 
    FollowsCloselyVorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    SumoLego said:
    @SumoLego Why would a church want a Lego Robie House?
    They put it in a rummage sale.  I'm sure some really evil reseller got a great deal.

    I only thought Jesus was a co-pilot.
    My wife's mom would always say "What would Jesus do?" I would have to say "Take the Robbie House and sell it for a huge profit!!"
    Bricklover18SprinkleOtterVorpalRyuexciter1SumoLegoOmastar
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    edited May 2016
    i could get #70323 for 100€ instead of 120€ at my local toystore!

    think i ll pay them a visit again today and nab dat volcano lair if no-one else got it!
    i also was asking if they already got disny cmf's . turns out: they have not the slightest clue!

  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 486
    brumey said:
    i could get #70323 for 100€ instead of 120€ at my local toystore!

    think i ll pay them a visit again today and nab dat volcano lair if no-one else got it!


    The laws of waiting say someone most definitely bought it.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    Pitfall69 said:
    SumoLego said:
    @SumoLego Why would a church want a Lego Robie House?
    They put it in a rummage sale.  I'm sure some really evil reseller got a great deal.

    I only thought Jesus was a co-pilot.
    My wife's mom would always say "What would Jesus do?" I would have to say "Take the Robbie House and sell it for a huge profit!!"
    If I keep 'liking' your posts, I'm never going to catch up to you.  
    VorpalRyuPitfall69pharmjod
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,237
    It was likes divided by comments, right? If so, mine's now at 1.7953
    bendybadgerPitfall69SumoLegobrumeysnowhitieOmastar
  • legomyeggoslegomyeggos Member Posts: 36

    I see a lot of people buying 75048 - the phantom, and 75053 - the ghost recently on ebay.  75048 is selling for a avg price of $45 and 75053 is selling for a avg price of $125.  Is there a reason why these sets are particularly being bought?  I have 4 sets of each and am wondering if I should sell the pair for $140 or hold onto them...

    any thoughts?

  • bendybadgerbendybadger 127.0.0.1 ::1Member Posts: 1,141
    VorpalRyu said:
    It was likes divided by comments, right? If so, mine's now at 1.7953
    I have given you a random like so you have to recalculate :)
    Pitfall69SumoLegoCCCVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    edited May 2016
    Mine is holding steady at 1.63.

    (I just need to stay ahead of @samiam391's very stellar 1.297 and avoid dipping into @Pitfall69's sub-1.00 ratio of .979.)

    I figure if I can tap into the @bendybadger multiple-like raffle goodness or if I can suddenly get creative and do unbelievable MOC projects on a seemingly daily basis (like vitreolum) then perhaps I can over takey-takey our muy-muy favoritist Gungan.

    Probably not, though.  Another PitFallCon will surely have be like-whoring all of his posts.  Dammit!
    Jackad7VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    And to re-direct the discussion, it appears those that hoarded the #76039 Ant-Man Final Battle set are going to do pretty good atleast until the next round of Marvel sets are released.

    Although Giant Man and Tic-Tac are prominently featured in this summer's offering, there isn't a regular-sized Ant-Man minifigure on the market.

    There is probably little chance of another Ant-Man figure until the Ant-Man and Wasp sequel in a few years.
    VorpalRyu
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited May 2016
    ^Anyone who hoards a set in its first 4 months (and only months) of life deserves to make a boatload on it.
    pharmjod
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    SumoLego said:
    Mine is holding steady at 1.63.

    (I just need to stay ahead of @samiam391's very stellar 1.297 and avoid dipping into @Pitfall69's sub-1.00 ratio of .979.)
    You could always try bribery. I believe you have a NISB #10179?
    Jackad7VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    That's a high price for a 'like'.

    Can I promise you no more spelling errors?
    VorpalRyu
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    SumoLego said:
    That's a high price for a 'like'.
    "A"? You mean one?

    You think small, don't you? How many posts have you made? How many different people could you bribe?
    VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    Not with the same UCS MF.  Although, I got a bunch of MF mini-builds.

    You mean doing a draw for the MF.  I normally consider bribery on a personal scale.  Everyone could 'un-like' the post after the drawing.

    Can't risk it!
    VorpalRyu
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    SumoLego said:

    Everyone could 'un-like' the post after the drawing.
    Worse - they could sell likes to the opposition. And then unlike your posts!

    You'd have to keep everybody sweet. Perhaps with a regular "contribution"?
    Can't risk it!
    Not desperate enough, eh?
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    My laziness / apathy normally gets the better of me.
    VorpalRyu
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,251
    SumoLego said:
    Everyone could 'un-like' the post after the drawing.
    There's an idea. 

    I'll be spending my Friday night going back through my liking history and un-liking all of SumoLego's posts. That 1.63 is about to turn into a 1.60!
    pharmjodJackad7SprinkleOtterSumoLegoVorpalRyuOmastar
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    ^I believe it. You always had fun flagging my posts so I would lose "likes" ;)
    pharmjodSumoLegoVorpalRyuFollowsClosely
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,777
    When did this turn into an unfriendly competition?  Is one of us running for President?
    bluedragonMattsWhatBumblepantsbandit778bendybadgerVorpalRyuFollowsCloselyOmastar
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