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A sad tale of how other collectibles bubbles have burst...

245

Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,653
    When the kids down my street start removing CMF's from their foil packs with tweezers and carefully placing them into collector display cases without ever playing with them, Is when the bubble will burst. Until then, the product is being used as intended, and any secondary market value is driven by a real demand, not speculation.
    Tell those kids they shouldn't be opening them, they need to get hold of a portable x-ray machine ...
    SumoLegoRainstorm26pharmjodRonyarBumblepantssnowhitiegmonkey76VorpalRyu
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Are they buying extra sets and leaving them in the box? Or are they just buying the good sets and opening and playing with them.
    The irony is that buying a "good" set and playing with it in the way that kids do, almost guarantees that it loses most of its extra value. How many people who are desperate for one of the classic favourites would start to lose interest when they discover that the rare parts that aren't missing (because the smart kid next door has swiped them) have teeth marks?

    If that starts to become commonplace, Joe Public will soon find that spending large sums of money, thinking they've also buying a gold mine, doesn't actually work out that way, and any general interest will wane.
  • LusiferSamLusiferSam MontanaMember Posts: 531
    To be very clear when you have a bubble market you have speculators buying the items, not investors.  Speculators invests with little or no evidence as to the soundness of the investment.  When people here talk about the next UCS Falcon, that's speculation. 

    As the article pointed out, bubbles also happen when there is a disconnect between the perceived value and supply verses the actual value and supply.  Some recently retied sets (a few years old) seem to have very high valuations, despite the fact that these sets shouldn't be that rare, should be seen as more troubling to more people than it is.

    I can't tell you the number of conversations I've had with people outside the 'normal' LUGs about the my collection, its size and their perceived value of it verses theirs.  Many of these people think I'm an investor rather than a collector and want to talk market speculation.  These people are looking for the next UCS Falcon, CC or MS.  That has never a reason for my to buy an item.  I guess it's cool that the Cafe Corner is my most valuable set, but I'm not planing on selling so it's not real money.  Nor can I count somebody buying at the price it's value at.  That's not why I collect.

    There's nothing wrong with people reselling.  It lets me buy sets I missed, or couldn't find.  But the disconnect between value and supply is disturbing.  I'm hoping that this is going to be a soft landing rather than a hard, like the examples in the article, but I also think we have a bit farther to go before the bubble pops.  I'm hope is Lego has set it's self up for trouble when the bubble pops.

    Final thought, great article Istokg.  It's better written than many on the subject and uses more than the typical basebase cards, beanie babies, and comics examples.
    VorpalRyu
  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 2,270
    edited May 2016
    Investing in LEGO.... there's even a course.... ugh... :-(
    https://www.udemy.com/legovesting/

    Or LEGO investors....
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/12/27/lego-investors-profit/1732525/
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,921

    TigerMoth said:
    Are they buying extra sets and leaving them in the box? Or are they just buying the good sets and opening and playing with them.
    The irony is that buying a "good" set and playing with it in the way that kids do, almost guarantees that it loses most of its extra value. How many people who are desperate for one of the classic favourites would start to lose interest when they discover that the rare parts that aren't missing (because the smart kid next door has swiped them) have teeth marks?

    If that starts to become commonplace, Joe Public will soon find that spending large sums of money, thinking they've also buying a gold mine, doesn't actually work out that way, and any general interest will wane.
    Really depends on whether that interest is driven by people expecting to make more for their sets than what they paid for them, or just people who expect it to hold its value better than other toys. I mean, a lot of parents would probably consider it a good deal if they can sell a used toy for even 75% of what they paid for it new.

    In the past six months, twelve used copies of the $30 Bionicle set #8811 Toa Lhikan and Kikanalo from 2004 have sold on BrickLink for an average price of $37.53 USD and a maximum price of $48.95. And there's no guarantee that these sets were even complete — it wouldn't surprise me if the one $14 listing were for just the creature or just the rider, but not both. This set cost $30 new, which today would be $39.07. So it's selling, on average, for 96% of its original market value!

    Maybe that's just because it was a "limited edition" store exclusive set, though. What if we look at a regular retail set? Well, #8596 Takanuva was a $30 regular retail set from 2003, which today would cost about $40.12). In the past six months, fourteen used copies have sold on BrickLink for an average of $39.23 and a max price of $54.71. That's a 97% return on investment, even better than the last example!

    These two examples are from the Bionicle theme, which is notorious for underperforming in the aftermarket. I can't think of any non-LEGO toys I bought twelve years ago that I could sell today for 90% or more of what I paid for them. So to a parent, even what a LEGO investor/reseller would consider a meager return on investment could be a big step up from whatever other toys they might think of buying their kids instead.
    LyichirMattsWhatpharmjoddougtssnowhitie
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Aanchir said:

    Really depends on whether that interest is driven by people expecting to make more for their sets than what they paid for them, or just people who expect it to hold its value better than other toys.
    That's more about whether LEGO products in general have a good resale value.

    My comments related to the specific selection of "good" sets as opposed to others not considered so highly. When given to kids, most sets cease to be sets and become just a box of random, and often battered, pieces. A box of bricks is just that, and the careful selection of the original sets is therefore largely irrelevant.

    Yes, those valuable sets could possibly be reconstituted, but most parents aren't going to do that.
  • VenunderVenunder Nottingham, UK.Member Posts: 2,565
    How to make money from Lego.
    Do a video on how to make money from lego. :)
    That is the start of the end really, but maybe, not just yet.
    Do I spend $45 on the video or $45 on a Star Wars set? :)

    I think I would choose the Lego every time.

    catwrangler
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,670
    ^My personal experience is that it is hard to part with those reconstituted sets, but that is because I buy used LEGO and have fallen so far behind on sorting that I will never catch up. It takes a lot of time and effort to finish building a set that is mixed in with 300 other sets :)

    The bulk of my LEGO comes from thrift store lots. I buy up whatever they have at a couple of local thrift stores, and come home with a lot of random bricks. Sometimes there are complete sets, but more often there are just bags of parts, often from several sets mixed together. I've managed to identify parts from around 300 sets, but only completed around 30. Another couple dozen are partially built and stored in zip-lock bags, and most of the other parts are in a couple of 25-gallon bins that are slowly being sorted through.

    My buying strategy may have to change when my grandson gets old enough to want specific sets, but currently any LEGO is good LEGO, and we have lots of fun building things.

    I avoided the collectible mini-figures for a long time, figuring that by "collectible" they mean there are 16 in a set, so you need 16 to have the collection. Thanks in part to You Tube videos, we have a bunch of ridiculous "collectibles" (Mash-ems, Fashe-em's, Tsum-Tsums, anything that fits in a blind bag) that I figure will have no resale value whatsoever, but a couple of dollars is cheap for the joy my grandson gets from them.

    catwrangler
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Istokg said:
    Hmm, that first course overview;

    What will I learn?

    - Learn how to buy sets as future investments. 

    What on earth does this module teach you? How to open a shop door, pick up a set and pay?
    MattsWhat
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,670
    One more thing about LEGO, which Aanchir noted, is that LEGO tends to hold a lot of its original value as compared to other toys. Makes perfect sense. I had many of the "rare" toys from the 70s, but mine would have no value today because we played with our toys back then, and most of them did not survive. Aside from losing parts, you really have to work at it to break LEGO bricks.
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    richo said:

    What on earth does this module teach you?
    How other people can make money out of mugs. And I don't mean the pottery kind, either.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,079
    ^ I think Tsum Tsums are a perfect example of the Beanie Baby craze.  No actual intrinsic value.  Standing at a wall of those things, all I can think is that they would be effective to clean certain spaces in my toilet.
    pharmjodDedgeckoVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,653
    richo said:
    Istokg said:
    Hmm, that first course overview;

    What will I learn?

    - Learn how to buy sets as future investments. 

    What on earth does this module teach you? How to open a shop door, pick up a set and pay?
    No, it's what multiples of sets to buy online to make sure you get the original shipping box.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,079
    Or make friends with the local toy department manager...
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 632
    As I've said before I think Lego as a collectible is much more comparable to MTG (Magic the gathering) than those collectibles whose bubble burst.  
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,079
    edited May 2016
    But would it surprise anyone if the Magic the Gathering card market went south?  

    Considering I don't know what the heck those things are, I wouldn't be surprised.  
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Honestly, if MTG hasn't gone south yet, I don't expect it to anytime soon. It's been around for more than 20 years and still seems to be going strong. That's pretty impressive for a "collectible" card game.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I gotta admit, I like some of the little Tsum Tsums.  Some of the designs are actually really inspired considering what they have to work with.

    That said, it's a cute $5 here and there to treat the kids.  No way in hell I look at them as anything that would appreciate.
    SumoLegocatwrangler
  • EvilTwinEvilTwin UKMember Posts: 129
    I was kind of interested to note in the article that eBay have a "dean of education".
    Also I hadn't realised that Thomas Kinkade died a couple of years ago, or that he had lived such a colourful life... the "personal conduct section of his Wikipedia entry is eye opening reading :)
    SumoLegocatwrangler
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 553
    Hello. I am here to tell you magic the gathering is pretty darn close to heading south. The community is getting annoyed with the companies handling of reprinting older more expensive cards which are required to play in certain formats. The company has taken all care about any of the older formats away and kind of just let the market do its thing so essentially any store or multiple semi wealthy individuals can manipulate card prices and the players get stuck with it. Looking in it looks good but I've been playing it for seven years and it feels like it's coming lose. Yet again maybe I'm just being paranoid.


    Also to stay on topic it looks like most of things in the article blew up when outside interests tried to cash out. Collectors caused prices to go up, people saw opportunities to make money and forced theit way in causing supply to go up with people who then tried to sell them because none of them actually wanted them causing to prices to plummet. With the various articles I've been seeing about lego prices we could be going there. Although I don't think it would kill the collectors of lego I think it would send the prices for a ride.
    VorpalRyu
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 632
    SumoLego said:
    But would it surprise anyone if the Magic the Gathering card market went south?  

    Considering I don't know what the heck those things are, I wouldn't be surprised.  
    It would be extremely surprising.  They have done a masterful job of keeping the game fresh and designing a system in place to keep the game enjoyable and available to players of all skill levels and resources ($$$).  Just like Lego, the cards have intrinsic value because you can play with them.  And the game hasn't gotten stale.  Just like building Lego hasn't gotten stale and will never get stale as long as Lego keeps supplying quality bricks. 
    KingAlanI
  • RecceRecce Tiny Little Red DotMember Posts: 923
    For me, I'm a toy collector and mainly collect robot toys, and more recently in the past few years Lego toys as well.

    I only buy toys I like, if there're heavy discounts in Lego sets I may also buy them with the intention to use as brick parts. 

    The joy is in buying what you like and enjoying what you have in exchange for the money, any side effects like the inflation or deflation of value through time is secondary to me since I'm already enjoying it.

    I'm sure from an investor viewpoint, the criteria will be totally different from above, and as such buying toys/collectibles would be like buying shares in the stock market, i.e. need to do research, speculate and assess the risks involved before the buying and the selling.

    As long as there're people buying something with an investment mindset, there will always be a bubble, regardless of what that thing is. TLG knows this which is why at every opportunity they will continue to emphasis that their toys are produced for kids to play.

    They're mindful of AFOL collecting the toys though, and the resulting price inflation it had caused on the secondary market, this is the reason why till now they've yet to reproduce any of the highly sought after EOL sets, for fear of negatively impacting that market and the perceived toy value.
  • LegoAerologistLegoAerologist Mid Ameica USAMember Posts: 25

    Right now, I am rebuilding a Star Wars Tie Inceptor. I rebuild it, because I want to. When its finished, I intend to sell. This item originally retailed for $30 USA. With out box and instructions, it sells for $19 on E-bay. It holds that value, in my opinion, not because of Lego, but because of the secondary collectors market tie in to Star Wars. 

    Shure, everyone wants a windfall from their  collection. But if you did not start with a child-like desire for Lego in the first place, the point to collecting is lost.

    You want to invest?

    Go to the stock markets, or coin collecting. Legos will retain their value for a little while longer. But once the "Plastics Factory" becomes available for home use, children around the world will be turning out their own  "perfect" nock off parts. Then the Lego market will plummet.

    Every investment has its day.  Child-like enjoyment, pleasure, the pride in a completed model, salvaged  from parts in a yard sale... This is eternal!


  • KingAlanIKingAlanI Rochester, NYMember Posts: 2,131
    I think this is only a problem for a few particular sets, not LEGO in general. TLG usually theoretically aims at the kid market even though a lot of business is from AFOLs in practice. This will also lead to a new generation of interest, rather than the hobby dying out.
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 553
    SumoLego said:
    But would it surprise anyone if the Magic the Gathering card market went south?  

    Considering I don't know what the heck those things are, I wouldn't be surprised.  
    It would be extremely surprising.  They have done a masterful job of keeping the game fresh and designing a system in place to keep the game enjoyable and available to players of all skill levels and resources ($$$).  Just like Lego, the cards have intrinsic value because you can play with them.  And the game hasn't gotten stale.  Just like building Lego hasn't gotten stale and will never get stale as long as Lego keeps supplying quality bricks. 
    I agree with this. I'm just a pessimist. I really think that wizards of the coast could do a  better job handling their formats but that being said it has a knack. Most people I know who used to play magic still enjoy playing it and keep their cards. I don't play it frequently or buy new stuff except for new commander cards which I'm not afraid to put money into because Ill keep them indefinitely.
    KingAlanImonstblitz
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,079
    I don't mean this to sound trite - but does Dungeons and Dragons still exist as something people play?

    I remember compendia and binders and binders of D&D stuff... and being completely confused by all of it.
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 781
    Yes. The new version that came out 2 years ago is pretty good.
    SumoLego
  • KingAlanIKingAlanI Rochester, NYMember Posts: 2,131
    Prices for old Magic the Gathering cards have gone up because although supply was usually reasonable for the time, the playerbase has increased.
    Wizards of the Coast focuses on tournament formats that are limited to newer cards, so players have to keep buying new cards and cards often fall in price when no longer Standard-legal.
    They bowed to collectors on not reprinting old rare cards after overdoing reprints early on.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited May 2016
    I know a little bit about magic and pokemon. Not a bad shout on magic, but no real sign of that yet. Pokemon I doubt as prices never went as crazy as some magic cards. New boxes and cards often stay pretty darn reasonable for years. I can buy a 16 year old box of team rocket for not much more than a current UCS set.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    CCC said:
    richo said:
    Istokg said:
    Hmm, that first course overview;

    What will I learn?

    - Learn how to buy sets as future investments. 

    What on earth does this module teach you? How to open a shop door, pick up a set and pay?
    No, it's what multiples of sets to buy online to make sure you get the original shipping box.
    Ow ok. Did you enjoy the course?
  • MattDawsonMattDawson Solihull, UKMember Posts: 1,270
    Judging from what I've seen/read/experienced, we are a long way off any form of bubble compared to other hobbies. 

    Look at model trains, for example. If you want a decent locomotive, you're looking to pay £130/$150+, and that's not even the limit, and in some cases it's not even that big of a locomotive if it's finely detailed! 

    But compare that to Lego prices - that could buy you a new City freight train set, a Modular, or a reasonably priced second hand set, if you're lucky: I was looking at Monorail motors, and you could buy 3 or 4 for that price, quality pending!

    All in all, one or two people hoarding a Lego set isn't necessarily a bad thing, as it means an increase is secondary market stocks. What would be worrying is if nearly everybody was hoarding at least 10 medium-large sets in humidity and temperature controlled storage, and not selling then for 10+ years.
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 620
    Has anyone noticed that the Lego online Exclusives limited to 1 per order has changed, it went to 2 per order the other week, and now it's gone to 5 per order!! i.e. At the moment you can order 5 X SOH, 5 X GBHQ's ....

    That cannot be a good thing for exclusivity and collecting? 

    When is the Lego end of financial year? Do they need more items sold to help the end of year sales figures? 
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Fireheart said:
    When is the Lego end of financial year?
    31 December.
  • FireheartFireheart Suffolk, UKMember Posts: 620
    It's ok, Insult On Hoth is still limited to 1 X per order... The exclusivity is safe!! 

    They just need need to find the people who want this UCS set..
    MattDawsonJackad7snowhitie
  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 2,270
    Good answers.... although I am clueless to the card games (are they sold in the USA?).

    One other thing that could cause a slowdown in the AFOL market.... space!  There's only so much room to put your Modulars or Train layouts.  Everyone should have a large game room above the garage... but unfortunately that is not the case.  And then there's that most dreaded word from your significant other...... "enough!"  :-(
    MattDawsoncatwranglerRainstorm26bendybadgerAllBrick
  • MattDawsonMattDawson Solihull, UKMember Posts: 1,270
    Significant Other? What's one of those? :P
    KingAlanI
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    friend of mine spent 20000 €   on magic cards 10 years agoe!
    he still has them. but no intention to sell!

    my vinyl record collection also 15 years goin now! not thinking bout selling this at all...

    you have to distinguish. collecting doesnt mean collecting!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Istokg said:
    Good answers.... although I am clueless to the card games (are they sold in the USA?).

    One other thing that could cause a slowdown in the AFOL market.... space!  There's only so much room to put your Modulars or Train layouts.  Everyone should have a large game room above the garage... but unfortunately that is not the case.  And then there's that most dreaded word from your significant other...... "enough!"  :-(
    This is assuming a static fan base.  As we know, every year people exit their dark ages, so more are continually added to the pool, and suddenly they need to "catch up" with their collecting, which drives the purchasing of the collectible things.  That, and they probably have plenty of room to put a great number of new models.

    That being written, with new premier sets coming out all the time, there are only so many that will be sought after.  5 years ago it was quite easy to get every modular with the intent of getting lots more.  Every year there's a new modular there is less and less demand for each individual one because really, who's going to come into the game and say "yeah, I'm going to spend thousands to get every one already released."

    Then there are the SW sets.  As cool as the TIE fighter, Slave I and the Sandcrawler may be, are they cooler than the Imperial Shuttle, or the UCS MF, or the Red-Five X-Wing, or whatever's coming out next year?  The dilution of sets is what's driving down the aftermarket price of things overall, leaving only a few real stars that will rise to the top.  They will float on a sea of oversaturation until it finally reaches the point where most sets won't be worth much above rrp.  The only ones that will shine will be those that are so kickass and so head and shoulders above the rest.
    CircleKMattDawsonDiggydoesvwong19pharmjodSumoLegodougtsVorpalRyu
  • RirinetteRirinette CanadaMember Posts: 84
    Great discussion everyone. Just wanted to say that I am impressed. The Brickset community rocks.
    catwranglerMaffyDrichoJackad7chuckpsnowhitiebendybadger
  • MrShinyAndNewMrShinyAndNew Member Posts: 281
    Recce said:

    They're mindful of AFOL collecting the toys though, and the resulting price inflation it had caused on the secondary market, this is the reason why till now they've yet to reproduce any of the highly sought after EOL sets, for fear of negatively impacting that market and the perceived toy value.
    They don't typically reproduce sets that have a high value on the secondary market, but that's because they don't typically reproduce any sets at all. The secondary market was super hot for the original Millenium Falcon (and all the first wave Star Wars kits), but every single Star Wars ship has seen a re-release or four. The new kits are different, but they fill the same niche in the market which drives the price down for the older kits.

    A lot of the people paying big bucks for older kits are not serious collectors who are trying to complete a series. They are just consumers paying extra for something they missed before. When a re-release comes out, whether it's the same model (winter village toy shop) or a new one (Star Wars sets) the consumers don't care about the old kit anymore and just buy the new one.

    How many people care about the 2004 Millennium Falcon anymore? There have been two since, and so anyone who wants a Falcon can get one. The "collectibility" of those old sets is basically nil.

    From what I've seen, Lego is aware of the secondary market, but they don't care about it at all. They will sell anything if it makes them profit immediately. Which is what they should be doing, IMO.
    monkeyhangerBumblepants
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    It hasn't been touched on yet. but it's something we are all familiar with, but a unique feature of Lego is the ability to build a retired set using currently available pieces. Not all pieces are available all the time, but substitutions are fine with a subset of people. This is unique to Lego and will hold the prices down to within a reasonable ratio to the sum of it's parts. If you collect, plates, beanie babies, Coke memorabilia, tsum tsums, etc, piecing together a retired item just isn't an option.  
    catwranglerchuckp
  • sonsofscevasonsofsceva 1904 World's FairMember Posts: 542
    One aspect of the LEGO market that is more robust than other collector areas is the spread of themes it can entail. One kind of toy that is also Star Wars, Super Heroes, Riding Stables, Hair Salons, Dragon Schools, Utility Trucks, and Angry Birds, and city buildings. Who knows where they will go in the future? Most other collectables are much more specific than this.
    Certain sets or themes may have their day and come and go  (or never get there, Prince of Persia), but the overall idea of LEGO has great potential for longevity (perhaps not #1 toymaker forever, but probably not back to bankruptcy again).

    I compare this to when I collected Star Wars toys as a kid in the 80s. When I first heard they were making new movies, I sold my whole collection because I knew they would make newer versions (and more detailed versions) of those same toys. I made enough to pay for a semester of university, and then watched from afar as the market tanked a couple years later. That was a very specific market, unlike LEGO overall.

    MattDawsonJackad7pharmjodcatwrangler
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2016

    A lot of the people paying big bucks for older kits are not serious collectors who are trying to complete a series. They are just consumers paying extra for something they missed before.
    You have anything to support this view?  I think there's a significant amount of serious collectors that are indeed trying to complete a series, because that's what collector's usually do.  Another factor is just how expansive is "the series."  If you're talking all of SW, well, good luck.  Maybe you're only talking UCS (please, let's not).  This is why we're at a unique (tipping?) point with Modulars.  With 10 that exist so far, and the pattern of a new one every year, how long can it sustain?  I'm honestly at my limit, and haven't bought the Brick Bank because of space and also a bit of "what would I really get out of it that I can't get from my current ones?"  Do I sell old ones to make room for new?  Do I rotate stock?  Who's diving in fresh now and is going to go through the hassle and expense of completing the series?  You're looking at $2400 (used) to $3800 (new) just to get the five retired ones.  To get the other five, that's another $800.  The whole shebang will cost up to $4600, with the first half representing 83% of the cost.  I can't believe there are many people who would dive into that abyss.  Certainly it's fewer than those who were faced with the same decision a few years ago and chose to dive in then.


    From what I've seen, Lego is aware of the secondary market, but they don't care about it at all. They will sell anything if it makes them profit immediately. Which is what they should be doing, IMO.
    I agree they do. not. care.  Furthermore with regards to Lego not caring, I think they have been forced to not care, because there's really not much more they can do about it that hasn't already been done.  They can cut into the fat of resellers with their inconsistent purchase limits (1 TIE fighter, yet 5 Sandcrawlers - wtf), socialist price fixing and draconian blacklisting, but they can only cut so far before you hit the muscle of their bread and butter - moms and dads buying for their kids.

    I don't agree that they will sell anything simply because they don't.  If they wanted revenue, they would do 2x VIP points and no purchase limits.  That will get them profit immediately from lots of speculators.  It will also cause headaches like the Cuusoo Minecraft debacle.

    At the end of the day, I think Lego and resellers are at a weird equilibrium.  There are fewer folks that are willing to go "all in" with sets investment these days.  In fact, short of the Disney CMFs (which I consider to be one of the surest bets in the last 5 years), there's no current set that really stands so far out from the others that you can point at it and say "that one will kill in the aftermarket."
    pharmjod
  • legomyeggoslegomyeggos Member Posts: 43

    76039 Ant-Man Final Battle and 6866 Wolverine's Chopper Showdown are killing in the aftermarket

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,653
    Even Disney CMFs could turn out bad for investors. It seems that quite a few have been purchased by resellers already. It only takes Lego making the decision to make more, substantially more, and those investments may not rise as expected. If they sell well in theme parks for example, Disney could agree with Lego that this series should be available for another five years only in their parks. If stock was available at retail for the foreseeable future, then investments will not rise significantly. Of course, that is a break from the norm. CMF series only last 3-6 months based on past history. But things change. Disney haven't had a CMF series before. This might be different and everyone banking on it being the same could catch everyone out. All regular series are 16 figures after all, until now. Something changed there. We simply don't know. Disney may ask for special packs of all 18 to be made that they sell exclusively. If you can buy a full series of 18 in a year's time, those investments don't sell so well. We can make investments on a guess or on our past experience and that works fine until things change.
    SumoLego
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Imperial Shuttles at $49 will probably kill it in the aftermarket eventually =)
    Rainstorm26
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    TheLoneTensor said:

    As we know, every year people exit their dark ages, so more are continually added to the pool, and suddenly they need to "catch up" with their collecting, which drives the purchasing of the collectible things.
    To exit their dark ages, people have to enter them.

    As it becomes more accepted that it's something adults also do, then there's less peer-pressure on teenagers to go into their dark ages in the first place - we're no longer talking about "a toy that's just for little kids".

    Without the dark ages, less is missed.
    MattDawsoncatwrangler
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,653
    Another thing that is really starting to change is the number of buyers from 'new' countries. I've sent quite a bit to buyers in Hong Kong in the last few months.
    MattDawson
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    CCC said:
    Another thing that is really starting to change is the number of buyers from 'new' countries. I've sent quite a bit to buyers in Hong Kong in the last few months.
    The factory in Jiaxing makes the brand itself more acceptable to the Chinese. I imagine they just turn a blind eye to items that weren't actually made there.
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